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Cheltenham 2021

Blue Lord’s 2nd at 2 and a half mile was at Naas which, apparently, according to what i’ve just read , has a steep uphill finish.

Provided the race is run at a decent pace, this could be the each way bet of the day
 
ONEDUNME said:
Perversely, the fact that Cheltenham had so much rain on Sunday seems to me to be the reason it’s shortened in price from 5/4 to odds on as its form is on soft and heavy and that’s the very factor that you are thinking will get it beat due to the lack of stamina.

The trouble with spotting a weakness in one is is that you need to have something that’s going to beat it that doesn’t have the same issues and although I’ve backed Metier, if I was placing a bet now after looking at your analysis Id be going for Blue Lord which at least has form at 2m 4 on heavy ground. looks a steal of an we price at 10/1 whether it wins or not
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I've checked back over the last 20 years and got all the stats for the Supreme, of the 16 winners that have a SI (sire Stamina Index), the lowest was 10.1, so that doesn't auger well for todays favourite. Of course, stats get broken all the time, and I must admit this could be the year, it's the small field that's worrying me (easily the smallest for at least 20 years), they always go off like the clappers in this race presumably because it's the first race of the Festival with a massive roar and the jockeys are all fired up on adrenaline - well that's possibly not going to happen this year. And a slow, tactical pace will obviously suit the fav, but still, I want to be against it at odds-on, especially with the soft ground.


upload_2021-3-16_11-13-36.png


Todays runners are as follows...

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Plenty of stamina in opposition, I've layed the fav in the 2,3 and 4 to be placed markets (1.36 - 1.26 - 1.17) and will also put some lays in in-running in the win market at around 1.3 and lower, as I think if he's in a battle on the run-in he could empty out late on.

So not as confident as most years but worth a go getting the fav beat at these odds. The slow pace helped him when he beat BALLYADAM and BLUE LORD last time, so a faster pace and stiffer track could easily see those two turning the form around.
 
For Pleasure is likely to set off like a scalded cat and it's a matter of whether the rest go with it or hang bank eyeing up the fa which is probably the more likely and they'll probably let FP sail off on its own. I've had a bit on Crumpy charlie at 42s as I think that one may break from the rest and go with For Pleasure and trade a lot shorter in running as a result. I'll put in a lay for my money back and hope for a few fallers (obviously without any damage to horses or jockeys) and hope the rest are over cautious with an eye to getting home. No idea what its sire index is so it may well have the same issues as the fav but the price is big and they say the one thing you shouldn't give away is ground at the start and that could well happen today.

Actually looking forward to it now
 
I still think Blue Lord is the value of the lot and the one I'd be jumping on if I hadn't already jumped.
 
3.05 - SILVER STREAK - 3rd in 2019 / 6th in 2020 and tends to run his race and did win over christmas when making all. Not sure he can beat Epatante again, but that one is 4's and SS is 25's.

3.40 - MINELLA MELODY - Trio of 2nd placed finishes this year and whilst needing the FAV to falter, there has been money around and now 16's.

4.15 - BURGUNDY MAN - Did not show a great deal over in France and makes his debut for Venitia Williams today. No realistic chance on said form, but the trainer not known for frivolous entries and a big run would not be a huge shock at 200's.

4.50 - MACGILONEY - Another " rag " but is 2 from 8 over fences and did win over 3m1f in the mud last Month. Form is useful more than anything and probably should not be good enough, but at 200's can go down to 6 or 7 places and still get handy odds.
 
ONEDUNME said:
For Pleasure is likely to set off like a scalded cat and it's a matter of whether the rest go with it or hang bank eyeing up the fa which is probably the more likely and they'll probably let FP sail off on its own. I've had a bit on Crumpy charlie at 42s as I think that one may break from the rest and go with For Pleasure and trade a lot shorter in running as a result. I'll put in a lay for my money back and hope for a few fallers (obviously without any damage to horses or jockeys) and hope the rest are over cautious with an eye to getting home. No idea what its sire index is so it may well have the same issues as the fav but the price is big and they say the one thing you shouldn't give away is ground at the start and that could well happen today.
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12.5 - I've put the SI's next to the runners in my previous post. The only one under 10.0 other than the fav is FOR PLEASURE, so the race does look wide open if the fav does struggle to get home. Only one winner bigger than 12/1 in the last 13 years but this year is a very different race.
 
I've opposed Appreciate It with Ballyadam 6/1 and Soaring Glory 12/1

3.05 - SILVER STREAK - 3rd in 2019 / 6th in 2020 and tends to run his race and did win over christmas when making all. Not sure he can beat Epatante again, but that one is 4's and SS is 25's.
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I also thought this was the each way play in the race.


One rank outsider that i think will run better than the 150/1 odds suggest, in the last is LITHIC. Backed it at this price 4 places and also 6 places at 66/1
 
Impressive win by the fav, smallest field in history of the race and they just didn't go fast enough to make it a stamina test. Hopefully back to normal next year!
 
Well done with Black Tears, fellas. Always great when you land one on the nod.
 
I've got a bit of money back and a free bet now with bet365 (over 4/1 winner) so I'm going to reinvest on the 415 with Sage Advice
 
Topdog said:
Playing two outsiders tomorrow

3.40-Black Tears @ 14-1...ran well here last year WON

4.50-Ofalltheginjoints @ 25-1 [Without Galvin]...Unexposed [3 places]

Both each way with Bet 365
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Been a good first day:)
 
Well done TD :thumb

For me, the in-running liquidity all day was horrific, presumably the drones were there in numbers, not a sausage to be had :ohwell Can't see it improving either so might sack it off :giveup
 
So many shorties tomorrow I'm not even bothering having a bet. Might have a look tomorrow afternoon. Very , very disappointing
 
I think if Bear Ghylls was trained by one of the top boys in tomorrows first race his odds would be shorter as "Gary" knows how to win

Each Way @ 7-1 [Four Places,1/4] Bet 365
 
I'll be looking at the placepot tomorrow
Race 1 only 2 places, should lose few here, with the first 5 having realistic place chances
Race 2 its 2 places again , Monkfish odds on , i would have 2 horses in this race,just in case he flops
Race 3 you need to find something to finish in the top 4 with this 26 runner hcap,could be lots going out here
Race 4 odds on fav,you just have to go with this one,if you get this far
Race 5 Easyland odds on,but that pretty poor run last time out is a little off putting,trappy
Race 6 similar to race 3,but 19 runner hcap,you might need at 3 horses running for you here

if you go 1x2x3x1x2x3 as a perm = 36 bets
 
I thought the odds on Ireland in the Prestbury Cup were a bit short before racing on Tuesday so I layed 1.4 - the Irish won 5 of the 7 races yesterday and are now 1.08 :lol
 
Paddy Power already paying out on Ireland as the Winner!
 
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