I'm taking on the odds-on fav APPRECIATE IT in the opening Supreme Hurdle - as I've posted before, no previous winner of this race had a sire stamina index of under 10.0 (some didn't have one), and todays fav has one of just 9.1.
This race always seems to be a dour test of stamina for a 2 miler, you really need to be able to stay 2.5 miles well. This is probably down to the race nearly always being run at a decent clip, but the small field this year might not see this happen but with the ground being soft then the winner will need to stay very well. The last 3 winners on soft ground had sire stamina index's of 12.4, 14.1 and 15.0.
After his win in December his trainer said "I was wondering if he was a two-and-a-half mile horse or a two-mile horse. I know he can easily do it over two and a half, but to come back to two miles and put in a performance like that in a Grade 1 was impressive. I'd say we'll go down the two-mile route now. He's not flashy like Ferny Hollow but he has a great cruising speed and covers a lot of ground which helps him to burn other horses off."
Cruising speed is not really suited to the Supreme Hurdle and I think he'll be outstayed at the business end. His class might well get him home but his odds look too skinny for me. I've layed him in the 4TBP market at 1.17 in case he bottoms out completely (or falls/unseats). I'll have a look at his rivals in the morning.
