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Corners & bookings
- Thread starter Seen
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Seen
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10-6 to Argentina in the end. Had Argentina scored earlier in the game (which they really ought to have done, being 1/8 pre-match favs) there's no way they'd have won the corners match bet, so pretty unlucky there. Still, at least I made a profit.
Seen
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GERMANY v GHANA
Bookings - layed 45pts or over @ 3.1 (no bookings for Germany and 2 for Ghana in opening games)
Corners - no bet
Corners match bet - layed Germany @ 1.32 (Germany lost the corners match bet when beating 10-man Portugal, Ghana won 7 corners v USA even though they lost the game)
Bookings - layed 45pts or over @ 3.1 (no bookings for Germany and 2 for Ghana in opening games)
Corners - no bet
Corners match bet - layed Germany @ 1.32 (Germany lost the corners match bet when beating 10-man Portugal, Ghana won 7 corners v USA even though they lost the game)
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Bookings bet won (just one booking), but lost the Corners match bet lay - again, the red-hot favourites fail to lead (well, for more than a minute) which pretty much ruins things. It was 3-3 on the corners with 10 mins to go but Germany were always going to win it from there unless they scored.
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NIGERIA v BOSNIA
Bookings - layed 45pts or over @ 3.1 and backed 25pts or under @ 3.4 so 30-40 to break even (no bookings for Nigeria and just 1 for Bosnia in opening games)
~~~
exactly half (14/28) of the games so far have had 2 or fewer bookings, so evens is generally the correct price for 25pts or under.
only 4 of the 28 games have had more than 40pts so 6/1 is generally the correct price for 45pts and over.
Bookings - layed 45pts or over @ 3.1 and backed 25pts or under @ 3.4 so 30-40 to break even (no bookings for Nigeria and just 1 for Bosnia in opening games)
~~~
exactly half (14/28) of the games so far have had 2 or fewer bookings, so evens is generally the correct price for 25pts or under.
only 4 of the 28 games have had more than 40pts so 6/1 is generally the correct price for 45pts and over.
P
peleus
Guest
Come on Germany!
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Broke level on the BELGIUM v RUSSIA game (3 bookings).
Missed the start of the S KOREA v ALGERIA game but did get small amount placed earlier matched @ 3.3 on the 25pts or under market - ended up as 30pts but did trade at 1.34 in-running.
The corners match bet was interesting in-play - ALGERIA were 5-1 up but with them also leading on goals 3-0 there was always a good chance S KOREA could claw some corners back. I got small amounts matched at 60.0 for S KOREA and 22.0 for the TIE, and S KOREA ended up winning the corner count 7-5. Someone made a mistake and layed me 7.8 for a tie when it was 5-5 with 8 mins to go and I was damn unlucky too as at 6-5 to KOREA the ref gave a goal kick when it was clearly a corner to Algeria. I won on the market but that would have given me 3 times as much.
Just shows how volatile that market can be, I don't think punters have clicked on yet that the team who's winning are less likely to win more corners. Algeria were as short as 1.05 when 5-1 up on the corners. Liquidity is poor until the last 20 mins or so but you can still get value if patient.
Missed the start of the S KOREA v ALGERIA game but did get small amount placed earlier matched @ 3.3 on the 25pts or under market - ended up as 30pts but did trade at 1.34 in-running.
The corners match bet was interesting in-play - ALGERIA were 5-1 up but with them also leading on goals 3-0 there was always a good chance S KOREA could claw some corners back. I got small amounts matched at 60.0 for S KOREA and 22.0 for the TIE, and S KOREA ended up winning the corner count 7-5. Someone made a mistake and layed me 7.8 for a tie when it was 5-5 with 8 mins to go and I was damn unlucky too as at 6-5 to KOREA the ref gave a goal kick when it was clearly a corner to Algeria. I won on the market but that would have given me 3 times as much.
Just shows how volatile that market can be, I don't think punters have clicked on yet that the team who's winning are less likely to win more corners. Algeria were as short as 1.05 when 5-1 up on the corners. Liquidity is poor until the last 20 mins or so but you can still get value if patient.
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USA 2-2 PORTUGAL
Another bet landed on the bookings - just the one yellow.
32 games played
28 games (87.5%) finished with under 45pts, so laying anything less than 8.0 is value (usually can lay between 3/1 and 4/1)
16 games (50%) finished with under 25pts, so backing anything bigger than 2.0 is value (usually can back between 3.2 and 4.0)
Another bet landed on the bookings - just the one yellow.
32 games played
28 games (87.5%) finished with under 45pts, so laying anything less than 8.0 is value (usually can lay between 3/1 and 4/1)
16 games (50%) finished with under 25pts, so backing anything bigger than 2.0 is value (usually can back between 3.2 and 4.0)
Seen
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Well, either punters have clicked on to the low scoring booking odds or they are just expecting non-aggressive games in these final group matches.
25pts and under booking odds are currently...
1.87 Australia v Spain
2.46 Holland v Chile
2.16 Cameroon v Brazil
3.05 Croatia v Mexico
You could argue that 1.87 is value to lay on the Aussies v Spain game, but happy to leave it.
Already got a good book on the 12X market as I took the opinion as soon as Spain went out that 1.39 was far too short for this game - the spanish players won't even want to play it. Traded well since (about £3.5k back and forth) and hopefully Spain won't take an early lead so I can trade further...
-£12 ~ Spain
+£98 ~ Draw
+£192 ~ Australia
The corners match bet is hard to call with both teams out, 1.34 does look short for Spain but they've actually only conceded 2 corners so far, despite losing both games. I think I'll wait and see how the games starts, I'll probably try and be with the team who falls behind on goals to win the corner count, price permitting.
25pts and under booking odds are currently...
1.87 Australia v Spain
2.46 Holland v Chile
2.16 Cameroon v Brazil
3.05 Croatia v Mexico
You could argue that 1.87 is value to lay on the Aussies v Spain game, but happy to leave it.
Already got a good book on the 12X market as I took the opinion as soon as Spain went out that 1.39 was far too short for this game - the spanish players won't even want to play it. Traded well since (about £3.5k back and forth) and hopefully Spain won't take an early lead so I can trade further...
-£12 ~ Spain
+£98 ~ Draw
+£192 ~ Australia
The corners match bet is hard to call with both teams out, 1.34 does look short for Spain but they've actually only conceded 2 corners so far, despite losing both games. I think I'll wait and see how the games starts, I'll probably try and be with the team who falls behind on goals to win the corner count, price permitting.
Seen
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I thought Australia would have been right up for this, but they don't even seem bothered. Spain are treating it like a training session so I do still have a squeak, but the Aussie full-backs look clueless at marking and Cahill a huge miss.