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Eurovision Song Contest 12th - 16th May 2026

Just got all the odds blocked out on oddschecker with a massive screen covering banner that says I have hit my limit of daily views and must subscribe to be able to see the comparison grid. Fcuk off you fcking cnuts 🤬🤬🤬:shit. Enjoy my VPN in incognito mode.
 
Put a small bet on a Romania win to go with the top 5 earlier. Based entirely on vibes, I liked her semi final performance and socials seem to be popping off. Follow for more stunning analysis. Not backing any of the favourites to win so pretty open to getting completely wrecked.

So far I have

GREECE win avg odds 6.55. - Looking like I got smoked on this but who knows. It was a legitimate value bet when I placed it. Double sized bet
UKRAINE EW win @ 51.0 - Never know, was only a small bet
ROMANIA win @ 18.0 - Small bet, its moved a notch in on betfair now so happy enough with it.
MOLDOVA win @ 140.0 - Tiny bet just for lols.
ALBANIA top 10 @ 4.33 - Great bet, its now 2.8 on betfair. Might not win but good value.
NORWAY top 10 @ 12.07 avg - Didn't lay off any. Top tipping from Beanie, its shorter on Betfair now and I will just let it ride.
MOLDOVA top 10 @ 1.97 - Satoshi always increases ones purchasing power.
ITALY top 5 @ 3.64 avg - Love this song. This one has moved against us as I type but no regrets. Double sized bet.
ISRAEL top 5 @ 1.73 - I smoked the betfair price here as its now 1.53. Taken purely for value bet purposes
ROMANIA top 5 @ 2.30 - Beat the betfair price again, looking ok and think she has a good performance and popularity.
AUSTRALIA to win the Jury vote @ 2.88 - Beat the betfair price again, pure value pick. Some bookmakers offer dumb odds.
ISRAEL to win the Tele vote @ 2.20 - As above. Cost me my parimatch/talksportbet accounts. Trading much shorter now.

Thanks to @Beanie for pointing out a lot of these bets. The one thing that is missing from this portfolio is our trademark LAST PLACE bet. I have poured over that market all day and just found nothing. I really cba backing the UK although it looks like the suits want to bury us. Have you got any ideas Beanie?
 
Some good looking bets there Jez - I think your Aus jury / Israel tele should both come in. Delta getting the rave reviews tonight.

By all accounts the Norwegian fella is ill, and slightly butchered the jury show tonight. Shame, and with lack of impact on socials i think that one is done and im taking the profit (will leave a small portion running.)

I have the same Greece bet - looks like its cooked but who knows - the more youthful juries might just surprise the betting market.

Have an eye on a few longer odds bets in various markets, but want to see the audience poll shortly so will share a bit more of a write up tomorrow.
 
A full rundown of current thoughts (which feel slightly all over the place!)

Winner:

It looks like an open year, in that we may well have multiple songs ending up in the same ballpark on the scoreboard an all having plausible routes to victory. Finland feels like the right favourite in that they look most likely to combine a good score on both sides of the vote. I feel like you could predict a top 3, and not be surprised if none of them end up on the podium.

Ukraine - the drift through this week seems fair enough. The staging is a little uninspiring, and the vocal is exposed (it is a difficult song to sing to be fair.) However, Ukrainian televote is underestimated every year - big, motivated diaspora, and extremely positive sentiment across the continent. 7/1 for a top 5 looks value.

Denmark - ive been opposing this in the top 5 market since Thursday. I do like the song, he performs it really well, it works as a show opener, and top 5 in the jury vote looks reasonable. However, its been dead on social media so televote likely to be underwhelming to drag it out of top 5 contention.

Italy - Im not a huge fan of the staging (too much attention on the dancers and not enough on Sal) and his voice has been getting worse through the week, so I don't think this will perform well enough with juries to trouble the winners circle. But it remains an uplifting bit of Saturday night entertainment amongst a lot of dark songs. Italy and the Italian language command a soft spot in Eurovision hearts so I expect a solid televote which can elevate this around top 4/5.

I genuinely think the other 6 have reasonable paths to victory - Israel, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria all offer televoter catnip, Australia the jury appeal, with question marks against all in the other constituency. So the question is where the value lies. If we are looking for an edge, then what is the market not pricing in correctly - for me, its the changing makeup of the juries. This year, juries have increased from 5 to 7 and must include atleast 2 jurors between the ages of 18-25. Based on that, the value lies in identifying which of the likely televote powerhouses can garner unexpected jury support.

For me, im going with Bulgaria. Staging is a masterclass of keeping the audience engaged to the extent that jurors can overlook vocal imperfections, appeals to the younger demographic, and eastern juries could give Bulgaria an unexpectedly high score. I'm taking them EW @ 25/1.

Last Place:

As mentioned, a longer odds winner feels less likely this year because the semi finals are now jury+televote. UK and Austria are worthy favourites in this market given that all of the semi final qualifiers have proven they have some jury and televote appeal. The UK in particular is a mess and appeals to almost no-one, and the dreaded nul points is a real danger tonight.

However, we didn't hit big odds winners in 24 and 25 to simply back a 6/4 shot to get the hat trick. The value for me here lies in Lithuania @ 50/1(may get better than this during the day). It was dead last in the audience poll last night, has done nothing on social media, came through a very weak semi final, and while Lithuania has some friendly votes/diaspora, there isn't much here to motivate them and they don't have Ireland in the contest for some easy televote points. This could easily pickup 50 jury points and 50 televote points and be a country mile clear of the UK, but I feel there is a scenario where both entirely overlook it.

Top 3/4/5/10/15:

As above, opposing Denmark Top 5 and taking Ukraine for an unlikely Top 5. Bulgaria top 4 also feels like value, but taking that as part of the EW.

Poland Top 15 @ 2.70. Despite what I say above, there is still a healthy jury market ready to reward good singing, and despite a very weak song, this is extremely well sung. Poland has reasonably reliable televoting power so while top 10 would be a stretch, top 15 feels achievable.

Other Markets:

You can get around 1.80 on the winning score being under 450 points. I think Finland are probably the only threat to that but overall there feels like so many contenders, particularly for the televote, that I think the winners score will be nearer 400pts.

Trying to find some interesting match bets but bookies a bit stingy with those markets this year.
 
NB when I started writing that Bulgaria were 25/1 in multiple places, which have mostly disappeared by the time I hit post :unsure Top 5 @ 2.50+ in a few places.
 
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Thanks guys for the top work you have put in and great to see the site alive again. Hopefully we will still be going for next year's event, but to be fair, surprised we have lasted this long.

Have been placing bets throughout the week and for most of the early picks, the markets have gone against me. Ended up with quite a few bets and should get a run for my money with most of them. A strong performance from Belgium would certainly help me and whilst the singer struggled a bit in live rehearsals, I thought it was a more composed semi-final effort. Hopefully her confidence continues to grow, though nerves taking over again would be a concern. 1000 available on betfair for the win and comfortable taking a chance at such a huge price.

Gone with Czechia as well in the win market at 80's as the guy can definitely sing. Should go down well with the juries, though may be held back by a lower public vote.

Have taken both your comments on board as well and have ended up with the following :-

BELGIUM - Win @ 1000 on the exchanges, Top 10 @ 100's and Top 5 @ 33's.
CZECHIA - Win @ 200's on the exchanges and a Top 5 bet @ 20's.
BULGARIA - Win @ 14's.
ITALY - Win @ 25's.
UKRAINE - Top 5 finish @ 3's.
NORWAY - Top 10 finish @ 8's.
ALBANIA - Top 5 finish @ 14's.
LITHUNIA - Last Place Finish @ 50's.
 
Good to see you Samoan. Eurovision week is always tricky - always so much movement as the week progresses and more metrics come out, but there never fails to be big surprises on finals night no matter how efficient the markets get, and im sure tonight will be no different.
 
Thanks beanie, amazing work and very much appreciate you sharing here.

I am out at the moment and haven’t been able to back them yet but will when I’m back in an hour
 
Great to see you Samoan. Fingers crossed the website holds till next year!

Gotta get on Lithuania. It’s killing me being unable to back it rn
 
There's a mistake in Betfair odds at the moment. They have Bulgaria @ 13 to win, but at 18 in the without Finland market. Of course they'll probably cancel or change it, but let me have a bet for now.
 
Nice. Also look on Paddy Power and Sky bet for the same bet. I am allowed 0.00 on anything on pp/betfair. They use the same backend. Paddy Power should 100% have the same
 
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