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Melodifestivalen 2012

Do you have any Norway MGP opinions? I'm on Tooji and Nora and longish odds, so I'm praying for Norwegians to use their heads before sending Plumbo.
 
I do; I'll write them in that thread tonight I believe. I'm also on Nora at 13.00 which is good value for what in my eyes is the secondfave - but I'm pretty sure Plumbo will take this.
 
Having listened to all the previews.... Timoteij, Ulrick and Thomas Di Leva stand out to me.
 
To me, Ulrik whips the others like it ain't even funny. If only he didn't perform first... nonetheless, I've now backed him for 3pts @1.85-2.00. Also backed him as winner of the whole shebang @15.00 (keeping my fingers crossed that the song in its entirety doesn't let me down).
 
Wow, now I've listened to them all at least five times, and I can't hum a single chorus. What a load of crap. At least Ulrik's song has "real" qualities to make up for the instant remember-ness... just hope it's enough from first pos.

I guess Timoteij are deservedly second faves, but make no mistake that this song is worse than Kom. This years chorus is simply un-hummable, while the 2010 version was, well, sticky to say the least.

Gav, what do you see in Di Leva? Not at all trying to talk you out of it, just interesting to hear your thoughts!
 
I just like the feel of the song. His image is interesting. It's nothing spectacular, just that really. Considering he's last in the running order, I think there's potential. One of the favourites could fall. Obviously, I'd be hoping for much longer odds.
 
I fully agree. He stands out, has an excellent Draw and will be further helped by following four Dance/pop acts. With this many forgettable Songs, I think draw Will be critical (here's to hoping Ulrik can overcome it).

I've backed Di Leva @3.30 for SC and @7.50 for Q - although no heavy bets.
 
Whats with the run on David Lindgren's price? He's now favourite! It's just cheap dance music.
 
He was huge fave in the audience poll on the final rehearsal! Mind you, that has been off before...

I do regret I didn't dare pull the trigger @5.00 for him to SC, though. Oh well, happy with Ulrik and DiLeva! (not watching the show though...)
 
Grr, yet another 5th place for my SC candidate! At least I ended up with a small profit this semi, thanks to my man Ulrik. Also, my MF-Winner bet @15.00 will hopefully increase in value.

Gavin, yet another good result for you, I'm impressed!
 
Hey thanks :) Nothing counts yet though. This is just paying the foundations.

Here's a tip... I know we've got Saucedo in heat 4, but there's some value in the other qualifying act:

Kyss mig – Axel Algmark - over 15.0
Land of Broken Dreams – Dynazty - over 4.0

Both are distictive acts. The first describes his song as a 'musical happy pill'.
The latter are a rock band that'll stand out among the more typical eurovision sounds.
 
I've also found heat 4 interesting, having accumulated 3 pts with SvS that Danny will Q @1.45-1.50. If he shows up with a poor song I'm gonna cry - especially since he supposedly turned down David Lindgren's song :)

That being said, I fully agree with both of your tips! Alex Algmark I've already backed @25.00 with SvS, only due to the "Paradis"-clip you posted over at Escbet! Incredibly catchy song - which obviously is no guarantee for the current entry, but who knows.

I've considered Dynazty as well, after Dead by April once again proving that rock is popular in MF. So far I haven't pulled the trigger though - the heat is very tough with Danny performing last.
 
I think only SvS have Winner-odds as of now (for the finals), and David Lindgren is @2.60. That's... low. Not completely undeserved though, he really took the audience by storm. Even I'm starting to warm to it - funny thingis that when I first saw the snippet I dismissed it as something that would have been dangerous in the hands of Danny or Saade, but that David simply lacked charisma. Well, now charisma is his biggest asset... he just seems genuinely nice and happy!

I've laid Loreen quite a bit at low odds, not sure whether to be glad or sad that we have another contender at short odds. On one hand, it gives Loreen competition, on the other hand David very much risks stealing votes from Dannys (my main horse) dance act. Either way, the corrent odds for Loreen and David basically says there will be no other realistic contender - I'd call that premature.
 
There will probably be three strong dance acts in the final and they could skittle each other out of contention. Sweden could end up with quite a weak act, as I don't rate Lindgren in the slightest. He looks and sounds like a talented holiday rep - not the sort of person that'll command the bigger stage. He reminds me of UK 2010 - Awkward and not a natural.

Loreen is far more visually dramatic and likable, however, her song is also too clubby and the juries tend not to warm to that sound.

Then we have Danny to come, in addition to Love Generation (if they qualify this time).

The selection team will have a major headache over which act to favour. The closer to 'pop' the better!
 
Following yet another hunch (here's to hoping it's more successful that the one on Abalone Dots) and having a small go at Mattias Andreasson's Swedish RnB. Not really the common MF-archetype, so it's definitely taking a chance. But I'm crossing my fingers for at least one of the four faves falling through. Q@18.00 and SC@5.00. Sucks to bet when odds makers have seen the whole performances though, while we only have snippets...

Forgettable songs all over, this heat. Only memorable choruses in my book are Youngblood (pretty bland at that) and MA. Molly I'll need the whole song before judging, ballads are sort of a whole package in a different way than pop.

Was lucky enough to get some Ranelid @5.75 before his odds plummeted. Still, could go either way - just super whacky.
 
I've left this week well alone as I'm in London all day tomorrow. I don't get Ranelid's song (speech?). It's strange that it's suddenly become the favourite.

I was checking the facebook hits and Youngbloods were leading ahead of Andreasson and Ranelid. Molly was last I think. I don't rate her chances, purely down to her dating Saadé.

I still think Andreas Johnson could figure. His song is a welcome change!
 
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