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ODM's Pretty Young Things

Decadent Times lost - didn't see the race so will wait for Seen's feedback. Decided to play safe and went for the 6/5 without the fav but still a loser
Hakam - Ended up winning at 4/9 but was available at 5/4 this morning
Kings Table - took 11/10 bog. Disappointing.

three races, one winner at 5/4 = loss of £7.50 to £10 level stakes
 
ONEDUNME said:
Mmmmm, thanks Seen. That aside he seems to be emptying out too often for my liking. I might give it a watch next time and take it off my list. I want to see these horses winning and wanting to go around again so that I know that they can give the handicapper a run for their money. Maybe it's just not cut out for the sprint and might perform better if it's stepped up to 6 and dropped in and settled. It's fine if a horse wants to be a front running but it's clear that it just can't hack it at the minimum distance.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I would sack the horse if I were you. He couldn't have had more ideal conditions today (perfect draw, sharp 5f, opposition all unraced) and the fact that he couldn't even hold 2nd place despite setting a moderate pace is worrying. 2yo races get harder as the season progresses too so he's going to be hard to place. Maybe a low grade nursery winner in the summer?
 
Tomorrow

355 Ascot Dream Dubai. Backed this one on its first run at 7/4 and it ended up winning at 7/2 joint fav so it already owes me nothing. Not very often a horse in this thread will go off at 20/1 but that exemplifies the task ahead of it on only its second run. Holds an entry for a big race at Ascot in July so obviously someone rates its potential. Tomorrow may be too big a task for it at this stage but it will give it a taste of Ascot. I'll potentially be on it at a mythical £5 ew at 20/1 for the sake of this thread but I'll hold fire until tomorrow when I can have a gander at the four place market on betfair. Will update with prices then.
 
200 Pontefract. Mailshot. Backed this at 5/4 last time out when it was beaten by the 2nd fav. I've just read the Sporting Life blurb for tomorrow's card at it says "didn't find as much as expected....."- I'm not sure what they mean by that - I don't know what was expected but I thought it was a pretty good run for a first race and I put it in my tracker. The other comment is that it should be better suited by this ground (based on its breeding no doubt) so that's encouraging and I'll be looking at the "without the favourite" market tomorrow as my horse is only 2nd fav (best price 3/1) to a horse called Zumran.

I didn't see Zumran's race but the price opened up at 10/3 and went in to 7/4 which (as I said earlier in this thread) can often be a good indicator with these early horses. However, it only finished 7th last time. No doubt the confidence is in part based on its breeding and more money for it would worry me. I'm going to try to see if I can get the vid of it's last race so I can get a view with my own eyes.....
 
Mmmm nothing particularly impressive about that run. The horse that came third was defied a victory yesterday by a head so maybe there were one or two decent horses in front but that's not excuse for all the others that beat it home. Maybe the better ground tomorrow plus the experience will see the improvement it needs but I'm happy enough to stick with Mailshot.
 
Also popping up in my tracker for tomorrow is one from last year which provides something of a timely example of what I'm looking for. Gifted Master runs in the 355 at Ascot. I backed it on my first run and wrote (I've added the bits in brackets tonight) .....

"backed at Newmarket - won at 4/1. Disappointing 2nd run (where it was 5/4 fav and lost) but ran keen - Persist"

So I did persist and it lost me money on it's 3rd run, coming 2nd as 2/1 fav. It then won next time out at 8/13 (when I didn't back it due to the price being too short). Then, given a rating of 99, it won it's next race at 9/2 - was raised to 106 and won its next race at 4/1 (both of which, I won money from), was raised to 111 and won again at 1/2 (not backed) and runs tomorrow in a class 3 race at the same rating of 111, where I'll be backing it again (as long as it keeps improving and its official rating is going up). Currently 3/1 and, again I will be looking at the possibility of backing it without the fav Washington DC.

As an aside, the other thing I often do is look through the big field handicap races and have a little bit on my previous young tracker horses at big prices for an interest. I don't keep a record but I've had some big priced places and the odd win and I'm pretty sure I'm well up on that alone:naughty
 
I'm glad I started this thread. I don't always pay the attention to my tracker alerts that I should but I've just been looking at another one that came through for tomorrow - Red Touch in the 510 at Wolves. I put it in my tracker in 2014 after its first race with the notes..."2nd in a tight 3 way finish but this one was the most impressive of the 3 - flew at the end" So I backed it the next time out at 2/1 2nd fav (lost) and again on its 3rd and 4th run when (4th run) it won at 10/1. I backed it 2 more times ew at double figure prices and then left it alone as it didn't seem to be improving. I don't delete them from my tracker unless they either get too old, die/retire or drop way down in the rating so I left it there and ignored it until today when I see that it seems to be improving as a four year old (apparently benefiting from a change of trainer). Two wins and a second from its last two runs and at its highest ever rating, I'm tempted (though it's not the MO of this thread and therefore I won't include it in any record) to back it each way at 15/2 in the 510 race at Wolves.
 
Well I said I'd be surprised if this thread didn't highlight quite a few winners before Autumn and three out of five of the horses mentioned yesterday returned a profit so that's not a bad start. They also happened to be the three of the five that I am including in the profit and loss figures, as I stipulated yesterday

Moheet came plum last (not included in results section, as previously mentioned)

355 Ascot
Gifted Master won at 3/1 (backed at 3/1 and also 11/8 without the fav)
same race, 2nd Dream Dubai 16/1 (backed ew at 20/1 )

200 Pontefract - Mailshot. Won at 4/1 (backed at 4/1 and 2/1 without fav - which is the figure I'll use for this thread, as mentioned yesterday)

510 Red Touch - nowhere
 
Update

Decadent Times lost - Decided to play safe and went for the 6/5 without the fav but still a loser
Hakam - Ended up winning at 4/9 but was available at 5/4 this morning
Kings Table - took 11/10 bog. Disappointing.

three races, one winner at 5/4 = loss of £7.50 to £10 level stakes

Gifted Master won 3/1
Dream Dubai 2nd 16/1 (took 20/1 each way as posted)
Mailshot won 4/1 (backed without fav 2/1)

£65 profit on the day (based on £10 per horse)
Profit to date £57.50
 
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Well done ODM. I don't often follow the flat horses till about June as that usually gives us more form to get my teeth into but I'll follow this thread with interest.
 
Thanks mate. Nothing for tomorrow but I'll be back tomorrow night. Don't forget, if anyone spots any young potential improvers you're more than welcome to share in here
 
Friday 29th April

I'm posting this now because the price is shortening by the minute - in fact, we've aready missed the 6/4 it opened up and and it's now a pretty prohibitive 4/5. Being the stubborn bastard that I am though, I'm going to back it at that price anyway (A price I wouldn't usually bother with).

Banish has had one run and, although the first half of the race was green as grass, it seemed to get the idea and flew from last to 2nd, narrowly missing out on a winning debut. 2nd Fav is serial loser Noble Peace which looks to be one of those nightmare horses for me as it is continually going up in the ratings without actually winning a race. At prices too short to back each way, I pity the poor punter who is following it every race. Perhaps tomorrow will be its day but I hope not.
 
Nothing else for tomorrow but I'll just mention two NH horses that have cropped up in my tracker. I'm not advising anyone to back them (I will be) or putting them in the P/L figures for this thread - for interest only.

One from my flat tracker 2014 Bold Runner - comments were... (and before you accuse me of after-eventing or only mentioning my successes please remember I mentioned Moheet the other day which I followed off the edge of a cliff:lol). I will mention the bad as well as the good as and when they crop up in my tracker. where was I, oh yes, comments were "2nd to Kalahari Sunset (who is progressive). 3rd 2nd place in a row - slipped at start prev and stayed on well. follow". That was after its 6th run when a 3 year old. It won it's next race at 2/1 making me a profit at the first attempt but then failed to win in the next two races I followed it, so just about broke even for me. It runs tomorrow over hurdles in the 555 at Fontwell. Has been second it its last two races and, although top weight, looks a decent each way bet at 6/1/

...and one that I wouldn't encourage anybody to back in a huge 25 runner field but runs in the 710 Punchestown for Willie Mullins and has a hat trick of 2nds and just pipped out of a victory last time out, Some Neck. It's price of 4/1 suggests that it's not exactly a genius spot from me but it's certainly one I'd back at a short price (say....5/4) in a smaller field than this and will be interested to watch when it goes hurdling.
 
Saturday 30th April.

I must confess to not having a look at the form of the 2nd fav Mazzini (and the one shorting in the market the night before) but Maximian is the one in my tracker for the 615 at Donny tomorrow. The reason it's in there is that it was narrowly beaten by the horse that I backed in its first run (Dream Dubai - see above, also 2nd at 20/1 earlier this week). Currently evens and 2nd fav is 9/4.

510 Goodwood Rock N Red 11/1. Campaigned on the all weather so far and this is a far from confident bet but it's in the tracker, so I'm on it ew.

They are the two in the tracker from this season but flagged up from last season (not included in the P/L but I'll be on it) is Waady in the 230 newmarket, 7/1 5 places skybet.

Even further back to 2014 and we have Knight Owl in the 2.00 newmarket. 20/1 4 places and Miss Marjurie in the 215 Goodwood, 11/4 fav and still potentially improving . Also Rural Celebration 14/1 4 places 545 Donny - crazy race to be betting in but very small stakes for me (again, not including in P/L figures). Same comments apply to the 250 Goodwood and Russian Realm 14/1, 4 places.

In summary, a purely speculative day ahead for the previous tracker horses and only the ones in bold to be counted in this thread profit and loss.
 
Maximian won 11/10 and Waady placed at 7/1 early price

Miss Marjurie was disappointing and to be taken off my future tracker but, in the same race, Bateel is in cracking form and holds an entry on 12th of May at York and will be worth looking at, depending on what the handicapper sees fit to raise it for yesterday's second.

One for today is Orangey Red. Backed in on its first win (fourth run) when it won me money, then again a week or so again when it lost me my winnings. I'm hopeful of a win today but I'm not happy at the price (6/4) relative to the other fancied horse in the race Pinewood who battled to win its only run to date.

Like the horse, hate the price but the field isn't big enough for a "without the fav" bet so I'm on at 6/4

The "historic" tracker horse is in the big race with 16 runners so I won't be backing it but what I do find interesting is that Minding is the very short fav to win the 1,000 Guineas and Ballydoyle has only been beaten by one horse since winning its first race and that horse was Minding by 3/4 of a length. Conversely, Minding has only been beaten by one horse since winning its first race and that horse was Ballydoyle. I'm sure there's a reason for the massive discrepancy in price, and if I bothered switching one of the racing channels it would probably be explained in seconds, but 11/8 and 15/2???. You can get a profit of over £17 for your tenner for Ballydoyle to finish in the first 3 (around evens for four places) and I like those odds. As usual, only Orangey Red will be including in the P/L figures for this thread.
 
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