• Hi and welcome to Betnod. Please register for even more tips, analysis and chat.

ODM's Pretty Young Things

It will be interesting to see how Turning the Table runs in the 450 race at Newmarket having halved in price today. To me, the race looks to be between Swiss Range and Tiptree, both good looking young horses. Tiptree got the better of Swiss Range last October but Swiss Range has got the more recent run (and win). The step up in distance shouldn't trouble ether of them. Without any "inside knowledge" it's hard to see why Turning the Table should beat these two (it's only run on Heavy and Soft so far) but obviously somebody thinks it's going to run a big race.
 
Ballydoyle returns an easy profit after a nightmare run that should have seen it finish closer if never a danger to the classy winner.

Orangey red absolutely pissed it against the odds on fav
 
ONEDUNME said:
Update

Decadent Times lost - Decided to play safe and went for the 6/5 without the fav but still a loser
Hakam - Ended up winning at 4/9 but was available at 5/4 this morning
Kings Table - took 11/10 bog. Disappointing.

three races, one winner at 5/4 = loss of £7.50 to £10 level stakes

Gifted Master won 3/1
Dream Dubai 2nd 16/1 (took 20/1 each way as posted)
Mailshot won 4/1 (backed without fav 2/1)

£65 profit on the day (based on £10 per horse)
Profit to date £57.50
Click to expand...


Banish lost
Maximian won at 11/10
Rock n Red lost
Orangey Red won 6/4
Profit of 6pts to add to the previous £57.50 = new profit £63.50 (based on £10 stakes per bet)
 
ONEDUNME said:
It will be interesting to see how Turning the Table runs in the 450 race at Newmarket having halved in price today. To me, the race looks to be between Swiss Range and Tiptree, both good looking young horses. Tiptree got the better of Swiss Range last October but Swiss Range has got the more recent run (and win). The step up in distance shouldn't trouble ether of them. Without any "inside knowledge" it's hard to see why Turning the Table should beat these two (it's only run on Heavy and Soft so far) but obviously somebody thinks it's going to run a big race.
Click to expand...

Swiss Range won easily. Classy horse that. Turning the Table nowhere
 
Mick Fitzgerald has just highlighted one following the 510 race at Sligo. The winner of this race was beaten last time out by a horse called Spader which is due to run on Thursday at Clonmel. Might be worth looking at if the price is not too restrictive.
 
Croft Ranger runs tomorrow in the 450 at Beverley. It's an Apprentice race and I must confess to never having heard of the jockey Phil Dennis but he's had a 2/1 winner today and an even more impressive 40/1 winner yesterday so he'll do for me. Croft Ranger won its last race (4th start) by a head after a battle with Irish Optimism who went on to win its next race. The same jock was on it then as tomorrow and we know that it's up for a scrap because it showed tenacity in its last race when the two finished well ahead of the others. Ladbrokes have it as 7/1 so it's an each way bet for me.

As usual, a brief run through the other alerts that have flagged up from previous years to see if any of them are still of interest.

2015 - Brotherly Company. Put it in my tracker after it won at odds on in April last year. It failed on its next three runs (which means I'm out of pocket on it) and I dropped it from my tracker. It then went hurdling and won it's first race last month. The Sportinglife seems to think that it's on a fair mark in its first handicap hurdle so I'll risk a small bet on it at 5/2

2015 Briardale. Another one tht cost me money after winning it's first race and failing subsequently. Is second fav at 6/1 in the 330 at Beverley tomorrow but I'm giving it a wide berth.
 
Phil Dennis is weak as piss, ODM :unsure

I know he's had a couple of winners just now but if it comes to a battling finish he's likely to get beat. Likewise if battling for 3rd place for your each way bet he'll drop to 4th no doubt. He's actually high up on my list of jockeys to 'not bet on under any circumstances'.

Obviously he's going to win now :embarassed:lol
 
Thank for that Seen. Just shows the dangers of looking at stark figures v using your own eyes. His recent 40/1 winner makes his recent P/L look better than Spencer's and Moore's:lol. If it fails today I'll update my tracker to check out when they put a decent jock on it.
 
Croft Ranger lost so £10 to come off of PL figures.

Brotherly Company went off short at 13/8 and duly obliged. Might be worth watching NTO too
 
Tue 3rd May

220 Brighton Tomily. As mentioned before, this was the first one into my tracker this season and even money with William Hill at the moment.

555 Merry Banter. Up against odds on fav but 8/1 is a fair ew price with bet365


655 Musdam. Ran green on debut but a prohibitive 4/7 tomorrow so left alone

One from 2014

320 Brighton Ice Slice 9/2 for the win and probably 6/4 for two places. I'll risk that

355 Brighton Tempuran currently 7/1 - back ew
 
ONEDUNME said:
Croft Ranger lost so £10 to come off of PL figures.
Click to expand...

Don't give up on Croft Ranger, mate - I dunno if you saw the race but the horse ran okay, but the jockey messed up by staying on the inner rail which meant he had nowhere to go inside the final two furlongs. He was actually staying on with something left at the finish despite finishing only 7th and I think he's still in form. Obviously I'd want a change of jockey though.
 
ONEDUNME said:
Tue 3rd May

220 Brighton Tomily. As mentioned before, this was the first one into my tracker this season and even money with William Hill at the moment.

555 Merry Banter. Up against odds on fav but 8/1 is a fair ew price with bet365


655 Musdam. Ran green on debut but a prohibitive 4/7 tomorrow so left alone

One from 2014

320 Brighton Ice Slice 9/2 for the win and probably 6/4 for two places. I'll risk that

355 Brighton Tempuran currently 7/1 - back ew
Click to expand...


Tomily won but a massive Rule 4 meant only a profit of £6.50 for my tenner

Merry Banter got third place (odds on fav won) but the bloody non runner meant no profit

Musdam drifted to 5/4 and lost. I did say no bet for this and I didn't back it but, as it drifted to backable odds, I'm going to be fair and count it in my profit and loss figures as I would have backed it had I know it was over even money.

So a slightly annoying loss of a mythical £13.50 on the day bringing the PL down to +£40
 
On the plus side, I made a decent profit on the two archived ones with Ice Slice being backed in from 9/2 to win at 5/2.
 
No "system" selections for tomorrow but one from previous years:

310 Chester Steve Rogers. Price too short (7/2) in a big field so small bet for me
 
Steve Rogers - shite.

One for tomorrow but this thread was supposed to be highlighting short priced things in small field race, NOT 9/2 favs in 12 runner fields but that's what it's done for tomorrow. Full Intention in 420 at Chester. I didn't know whether to laugh or cry when I saw the draw. On the down side, horses just don't win from stall 12 in five furlong races at Chester -on the other hand, the view must be that the horse has some talent to still have favouritism with that millstone around its neck.

I love a battler and my tracker notes say...

11/4 First race -brilliant battling perf just beaten by awesome allan. Money for it beforehand and backed in to 15/8. Follow.

It will be some horse to follow it if wins tomorrow's race but, if it doesn't, I'll be on it next time.
 
To make things worse i'll give it the extra disadvantage of backing it with you, ODM. Sorry mate!

You can call it my birthday present if you like :thumb

While i'm here, in case i miss it, there is a horse of Henry Oliver's called YOURGONNAHEARMEROAR. Ran a respectable debut run, wasnt given a hard time, the jockey told the owner there was plenty left. One to note for sure.
 
ONEDUNME said:
Steve Rogers - shite.

One for tomorrow but this thread was supposed to be highlighting short priced things in small field race, NOT 9/2 favs in 12 runner fields but that's what it's done for tomorrow. Full Intention in 420 at Chester. I didn't know whether to laugh or cry when I saw the draw. On the down side, horses just don't win from stall 12 in five furlong races at Chester -on the other hand, the view must be that the horse has some talent to still have favouritism with that millstone around its neck.

I love a battler and my tracker notes say...

11/4 First race -brilliant battling perf just beaten by awesome allan. Money for it beforehand and backed in to 15/8. Follow.

It will be some horse to follow it if wins tomorrow's race but, if it doesn't, I'll be on it next time.
Click to expand...


I had a quick look at this race, ODM.

10 year stats show that all of the last 10 winners were drawn 7 or lower :unsure However, things might not be as bad as they look as the horses drawn 1 to 4 are all outsiders, and with 5 of his 11 rivals being newcomers - and therefore likely to be not too well away from the stalls - he could quickly find himself in a decent early position. Debut form looks strong (fast time and clear of 3rd) so you'd think he has to go close.

I quite like Percy Toplis - from stall 5 he's the lowest drawn of the top 7 in the betting so I reckon he can grab the rail early. Solid debut run then chased too strong a pace on heavy at Pontefract. Probably one to trade on in-running.

Also think She's Rosanna is worth a speculative punt at huge odds (70.0 at Betfair but has traded at 150.0 to pennies) - well backed at Windsor on debut (10/1 into 15/2) but ran green and hung left throughout. Trainer has poor SR (4%) but she won't be able to hang left at this track and drawn 4 with two debutantes inside, so could be in a decent position from an early stage. Might finish tailed off but I think she'll go well.

Apologies for hijacking your thread ODM :unsure
 
Don't be daft Seen, the more input the better- thanks

Punter - I'll have a look at that one and put it in my tracker to be safe as The last time one of yours won at about 25/1 you couldn't be arsed to let us know it was running:lol
 
2 non-runners in the 4.20......they must be lame or not eaten up this morning or stood on a stone or something. I'm sure it has absolutely nothing to do with the fact they were drawn 10 and 11. Nope, definitely not that, because that would be breaking the rules of racing.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top