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ODM's Pretty Young Things

700 Sandown Mighty Power. Only ran on turf twice and finished second to last on both. However, the first was on heavy ground and the last performance was better than the figures suggest at a distance that it's not quite ready for yet. Dropped back to 7f today and can be dangerous off current mark.

Also recently gelded and still a young horse so wouldn't surprise me if it went on a bit of a run and a big handicap rise in the near future.

Currently 5/1 available and 10/11 for THREE placed on betfair so 5pt win and 10pt place bet for me
 
4th. Seem to run very green to me (unless the surface didn't suit). Need to see more of him
 
Counting down to the flat season so, until that starts, I'm going to get a bit of practice in. Not every day because I've got a lot coming up but when I can.

Today I'm selecting six bets of at least five to one with the intention of getting at least one winner to cover the stakes and/or make a profit (although the odd one will be under the odds needed). All bets will be best odds guaranteed unless otherwise stated. I'll add the odd note here and there to for reasoning. I've recently started looking at horses at horses that are doing something different recently to previous runs and had a bit of success with it.

I'll be starting with a betting bank of 50 points and will start with 1pt win per horse, escalating to 2 and 3 points if required, until the 50points have gone.

202 font After the Fox 6/1 - bombed last time out but I'm one to forgive a poor run. Won around this course and distance about this time last year at around the same mark
210 Leic Smugglers Blues 11/2 - won LTO in first time cheekpieces and tries again with them today. Raised 5lb for the win but has a 7lb claimer onboard.
330 Sandown Braveheart - 15/2. Has had wind surgery
355 Leicester Legendary Rhythm 17/2- Has had wind surgery
405 Sandwon Musical Slave - 2nd run after wind surgery (which is often better that the first run after they have had a better experience in the previous race and are able to breath better. Obviously, wind ops sometimes make no difference whatsoever)
700 Chelmsford Exceedingly Regal 9/2 - First run for new yard

6 points staked
 
No winners, one non runner, 5pts down

Increase in stakes and the next one is
Marchetti in the 235 Lingfield 2pts 5/1
138 Wincanton Mini Yeats 2pts 6/1
240 Haydock Sam Brown 6/1


plus these
310 Lingfield Royal Aviation. I'm looking for a horse doing something different and this one really is the royal flush. Gelded, hooded first time and for a new stable and add to that a jockey that I very much like and it's a prime bet for me. The 25/1 has gone but plenty of 14s about.
445 Less to go on and only one start to date but switched to a yard and jockey that couldn't be more in form. I do often start by looking at what the jocks and trainers I like have out and go from there and I'm giving this one a go at 14s for the win and backing 3 places on the exchanges at around 3/1. Houi Cheri
235 Lingfield No such Luck ran OK in first time tongue strap and wears it again today. Up in trip at a new track with a jockey I like. Again, the price has gone but 10/1 still available as I type.
And finally, I don't know if anyone sets much store by horses targeted for races that they've previously won but just to show that I don't always back horses that are shortening, Waiting Patiently in the 338 Ascot is drifting like a barge and is now 28/1.
Another drifter I'm backing is Trincomalee 358 Wincanton currently 11/1 4 places
 
ONEDUNME said:
No winners, one non runner, 5pts down

Increase in stakes and the next one is
Marchetti in the 235 Lingfield 2pts 5/1
138 Wincanton Mini Yeats 2pts 6/1
240 Haydock Sam Brown 6/1


plus these
310 Lingfield Royal Aviation. I'm looking for a horse doing something different and this one really is the royal flush. Gelded, hooded first time and for a new stable and add to that a jockey that I very much like and it's a prime bet for me. The 25/1 has gone but plenty of 14s about.
445 Less to go on and only one start to date but switched to a yard and jockey that couldn't be more in form. I do often start by looking at what the jocks and trainers I like have out and go from there and I'm giving this one a go at 14s for the win and backing 3 places on the exchanges at around 3/1. Houi Cheri
235 Lingfield No such Luck ran OK in first time tongue strap and wears it again today. Up in trip at a new track with a jockey I like. Again, the price has gone but 10/1 still available as I type.
And finally, I don't know if anyone sets much store by horses targeted for races that they've previously won but just to show that I don't always back horses that are shortening, Waiting Patiently in the 338 Ascot is drifting like a barge and is now 28/1.
Another drifter I'm backing is Trincomalee 358 Wincanton currently 11/1 4 places
Click to expand...

No such luck won at 12/1. No such luck with the rest

Today 230 Newbury Lady kk after wind surgery ew at 13/2
430 Muss Any job will do, again after wind surgery, 18/1 without clear the runway and a bet for it to finish in the top 4
305 newbury Dreams of home, wind surgery ew 11/2
 
Well the flat season properly kicks in today so I've picked a few out and I'll be watching all the flat turf races from now on with a view to bunging some in my tracker to follow throughout the season. I also have some from previous years that I'll also include when I get the time to post.

My strategy early in the season will include looking at horses doing things for the first time which may lead to their improvement. I've noticed over the past few months how much a change of yard can seem to improve a horse on it's next run for example.

Redcar
130 Frog and Toad is a lightly raced 4 year old that's had a wind op and it running off its lowest mark to date which both tempt me into taking a chance at 12/1. 1pt ew.
Blackjack makes its turf debut and cheekpieces are fitted for the first time 1pt ew 10/1

205 Billy Wedge . Quite honestly, there's absolutely nothing to recommend this horse other than a change of trainer and a drop in weights (and they don't take weight off of in form horses lol) 1pt ew 25/1 4 places

240 Handicap debutants Prince Achille and Easy with Aces would appeal if their prices were larger but they aren't so that's that.

315 Harswell Duke is a big price (and drifting) at 16/1 (five places) . Change of yard and Ben Curtis on board. Been off longer than any other runner in the race so has to be an even larger element of the unknown that even the first day of the turf season throws up but I'm tempted by the 16/1 2pts ew 5 places although I do like the chances of the two at the head of the market, Il Bandito and Broken Spear with his excellent jockey on board

420 Young Winston (change of yard) 1pt ew 12/1 5 places skybet and Silver Vision (turf debut and excellent jockey). The latter has been backed in to 8/1 but I'm on at 10s 2pt ew 4 places.

455 Havana Party (wind surgery and lowest mark to date) has drifted to 18/1 1pt ew 4 places and We Still Believe . Nothing to do with any changes of headgear or the like for this one, I just fancy its chances on the weights so 1pt ew 14/1 4 places. and I'm going to chuck 1pt ew at 28/1 4 places on a horse recently gelded and with the assistance of Jason Watson on board. Clansman.


Moving to Windsor
140 Battle Point (change of yard for turf debut) 1pt ew 22/1 4 places and Fristel 2pt ew 11/1 4 places on turf debut.

250 has two horses that have previously been in my tracker. Inver Park (change of yard and William Buick on) is too short to back now so just Many a Star (change of yard and Cieren Fallon on board) 2pts ew 9/1 4 places

430 Two big priced ew's The Rain King (wind surgery) 1pt ew 33/1 3 places and Natalie Rose 1pt ew 25/1 both drifting badly but I'm not going to let that put me of with so many unknowns early in the season.

500 Miss Messenger (handicap debut and first time tongue strap plus very good jock on board) 2pt ew 10/1 3 places

530 Two gelded prior to handicap debut, Warhol 1pt ew 9/1 4 places and Pavlodar 2pt win 13/2
 
Forgot to add a couple of jumpers that have been in my tracker
225 Cosmic Outlaw 2pt ew 13/2 3 places
300 Loughermore 2pt ew 12/1 4 places
 
Promising start to the flat season. No wins yet but four horses placed in the first three races (one at 25/1)
 
22pts staked at each of the flat courses and 8 on the jumps. Loughermore placed returned 6.8 so a loss of 1.2 points on the jumps. but a nice 50/1 winner with Clansman more than covered the total flat stakes and there were plenty of places too, some at decent prices

On the flat, a nice winner with Clansman and plenty of places
Frog and Toad
Blackjack
Billy Wedge
Harswell Duke
Fristel
The Rain King


Quick calculation, I make that a 69pt profit on the day overall plus any returns from the 530 race yet to run. Happy with that.
 
Pontefract tomorrow

100 First time handicap run for Alsithee 2pt ew 20/1 3 places and Magna Moralia is on a winable mark and has a capable jockey aboard tomorrow 2pts ew 9/1 3 places

130 2 x turf debuts, Riptide 2pt ew 14/1 and Liangel Hope and a jockey/trainer combination who were only denied a treble today by a nose.

205 Cornerstone Lad. i've backed at 5/1 but is now 7/2 so I'm going to ignore it for the purposes of this thread.

240 Fishable is one of my tracker horses. 1pt ew 12/1 and I'm also on Racing Country in first time tongue tie 1pt ew 33/1

315 Two in this race, first race for new yard and first time in a handicap Panama City 1pt ew 16/1 (and drifting) and 2pt win Buckshaw Village after wind surgery 2pt win 7/1

425 Royal Advice. Down to its lowest rating but with an excellent claimer on board and running further than it has before, worth a punt at 1pt ew 28/1 4 places skybet
 
50/1 winner yesterday, 20/1 winner on the first race today. I love the flat season lol
 
Placing the first bet for tomorrow now because the price is collapsing so I'll take a chance on it not going out again tomorrow as there will be no BOG

3pt ew 12/1 5 places
 
Suppose I'd better say what it is, Sarah's Hope 100 Catterick and the only reason it is in my tracker is because I was told to keep an eye out for it by someone who knows (far better than I do) what they're doing.
 
28pts staked yesterday, 20/1 winner and 33/1 2nd at a quarter odds returned 61.25 points, profit of 33.25 on day to go with 69 points profit on Monday
 
Today
Catterick 100 . Twice Aday has changed yards and has a very good claimer on board and is the likely winner for me but I've gone for two at bigger prices in Sarah's Hope 3pt ew 12/1 5 places and Isle of Dreams (first time handicap). 33/1 is on offer for 4 places but I'll take the five places at 28/1 1pt ew.

130 Abbie Power 2pt ew 15/2 4 places after wind surgery and dropped 7lb from handicappers initial assessment for first time handicap.Prayer Matt, first time tongue strap and gambling that it may be better on turf than its last poor run on the all weather but may possibly be better going right handed although very little form to go on. 1pt ew 18/1 4 places

205 Three horses running first time out for new yards and I'm going for the middle priced one which now tries England from Ireland. First Blood 2pt win 11/2 and 2pts for 3 places (currently 7 runners) to win 2.4pts

350 Catterick, first run for new yard Graces Quest 1pt ew 20/1 5 places. Handicap debut 1pt win Great Ridley 9/1

420 Khurumbi first handicap and cheekpieces on 2pt win 11/2

Nottingham 250 Ballet Steps (first handicap and trainer in form, having had just 2 of his last 8 horses finish outside the top 2) 2pt win 7/1 2pt 3 places to win 2.8pts

500 Trusty Scout - change of yard 2pt ew 12/1 4 places. Blue Artimis first time on turf 1pt ew 16/1 5 places . Dandy Maestro turf debut and its best run was around this distance with a visor on which he wears again today 1pt ew 12/1 5 places

prices were correct at time of typing
 
Picked the wrong one on first start for new yard in the 205 as one of them went and won at 22/1 LOL.

Three races still to go today but stakes already returned with the exception of 0.2 of a point with both placing in the 130 race (difficult to assess Prayer Matt as it ran on its own but appeared to run ok back on turf and drop in price may indicate that someone thinks it's worth keeping an eye on) and Ballet Steps winning the 250 race by a football pitch.

I can relax watching the remaining three raced knowing that any win or place returns will be profit on the day and the third winning day on the trot.
 
Sure enough Graces Quest places to return 5 points and a profit on the day with two races to spare
 
Dandy Maestro wins the last. Profit of 21.2 points on the day. Three winning days on the trot with a total profit of 123.45 in all.

No flat racing tomorrow or Friday so back on Saturday and then full out next week:thumb
 
No prices out for Saturday yet but will be interested to find out what price Spice Store is in the 205 race if it runs. Second time in a handicap with Joanna Mason taking three off. Finished fourth, 2 lengths behind behind Le Reveur who would have won on Monday but for veering violently to its left at the finish on Monday. Drops down in trip but I'll certainly be having a look at it.
 
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