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Pete's Poisson Picks

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Pete89

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Been paper trading CS using Possion to calculate goal expectancy since the start of the month and its been working out not too bad, going to start with real money at the weekend, but in the meantime heres my last set of picks for paper trading. All bets are to win £100 so profit will be £100-stake.

Arsenal V Liverpool £28.04 staked on:
2-0, 3-0, 3-2, 3-3, AU

Everton V WBA £27.37 staked on:
0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3

Norwich V Tottenham £26.99 staked on:
1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2

Fulham V West Ham £41.51 staked on:
1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, AU

Man Utd V Southampton £31.26 staked on:
2-1, 3-2, All quouted Southamption Win Scores, All quoted Draw scored exc 0-0

Reading V Chelsea £31.32 staked on:
All quoted Reading Win Scores, All quoted Draw Scores exc. 0-0
 
Pete89 said:
Arsenal V Liverpool £28.04 staked on:
2-0, 3-0, 3-2, 3-3, AU

2-2 £0 returned

Everton V WBA £27.37 staked on:
0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3

2-1 £0 returned

Norwich V Tottenham £26.99 staked on:
1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2

1-1 £0 returned

Fulham V West Ham £41.51 staked on:
1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, AU

3-1 £100 returned

Man Utd V Southampton £31.26 staked on:
2-1, 3-2, All quouted Southamption Win Scores, All quoted Draw scored exc 0-0

2-1 £100 returned

Reading V Chelsea £31.32 staked on:
All quoted Reading Win Scores, All quoted Draw Scores exc. 0-0

2-2 £100 returned
Click to expand...


£300 in (Sadly Paper) returns tonight from £187.49 staked for a profit of £112.51

The system proper starts on Saturday, when I will start betting for real.

I'll probably try and post before then with abit more info on what I'm doing..
 
So this came out of my attempt to make my spreadsheets for American Football, the most successful of my excel based betting, work for real football, My problem was that while ELO based ratings work quite well for international matches, I've not had much success with them in domestic leagues.

Obviously because of the differences between the sports, namely the relative scarcity of goals in football compared to am. football and the differences in betting approach (My NFL betting consists mostly of beating the spread) I had to adjust the approach slightly and decided to focus on Correct Scores.

The main input to calculating this is the Average Goals For/Against numbers, adjusted for home advantage and away disadvantage. I then use the Goal expectancy numbers for each team against there opposition punch into the possion function in excel to give the probabilities of scoring 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4+ goals from which I can get the probabilities of each score or any unquoted. (I could also devise O/U 2.5 ect, WLD or AH markets but I figured it was better to test with the core data as it were)

from there its a simple conversion from % probability to decimal odds and a case of back if its value. I'll post up what I'm betting later on, but if anyone wants a copy of prices generated I'm happy to send you the pdf
 
I've decided to start out betting to win £20 per game, however I will for my record keeping continue to record to £100 and so will post to that effect. Here's Tomorrows, I'll post Sundays up tomorrow night

QPR v Norwich £28.35 staked:
0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3, AU

Arsenal v Stoke £11.42 staked:
0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3, 3-3

Everton v Aston Villa £21.35 staked:
0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 3-3

Newcastle v Chelsea £33.65 staked:
0-1, 0-3, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-2

Reading v Sunderland £29.30 staked:
0-3, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-2, 3-3, AU

West Ham v Swansea £39.90 staked:
0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0

Wigan v Southamption £30.10 staked:
0-2, 0-3, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 3-3, AU

Fulham v Man Utd £27.20 staked:
1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, 3-3

Total Stakes £221.27
 
So saturday's games are over and I'm Quite pleased with the results:

Pete89 said:
QPR v Norwich £28.35 staked:
0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3, AU
Click to expand...
0-0 :cry

Arsenal v Stoke £11.42 staked:
0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3, 3-3
Click to expand...
1-0 :cry

Everton v Aston Villa £21.35 staked:
0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 3-3
Click to expand...
3-3 :thumb

Newcastle v Chelsea £33.65 staked:
0-1, 0-3, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-2
Click to expand...
3-2 :thumb

Reading v Sunderland £29.30 staked:
0-3, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-2, 3-3, AU
Click to expand...
2-1 :cry

West Ham v Swansea £39.90 staked:
0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0
Click to expand...
1-0 :thumb

Wigan v Southamption £30.10 staked:
0-2, 0-3, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 3-3, AU
Click to expand...
2-2 :thumb

Fulham v Man Utd £27.20 staked:
1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, 3-3
Click to expand...
0-1 :cry

Total Stakes £221.27. Total Returned £400, profit of £178.73
 
Sundays Picks are:

WBA v Tottenham £34.50 staked:
1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, AU

Man City v Liverpool £27.50 staked:
0-3, 1-3, 3-0, 3-2, AU
 
0-3 and 1-3 Liverpool? Are you mad? :)

Interesting stuff and nice going Pete :thumb
 
No emotion or thought what so ever punt, if the spreadsheet says its 20.0 and the odds are 23 you back it. (Not sure what the odds were on that one but just my example)

Two losses today sadly +116.73 for the weekend
 
Saturday's picks:

Tottenham V Newcastle £36.75:
0 - 1, 0 - 2, 0 - 3, 1 - 2, 1 - 3, 2 - 2, 2 - 3, AU

Stoke V Reading £32.35:
0-3, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, 3-3, AU

Sunderland V Arsenal £51.35
0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1

Norwich V Fulham £24.25
1-3, 2-0, 3-0, 3-2, AU

Chelsea V Wigan £30.35
0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3

Swansea V QPR £40.15
0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, AU

Sunderland V Man City £36.30
0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1

Total Stakes £251.50
 
Need Southamption to hold on with no more goals for a profit today (Obviously the last game should be Southampton v man city as opposed to sunderland)
 
For Tomorrow:

Aston VIlla V West Ham £46.85:
0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1

Man Utd V Everton £39.40:
0-2, 0-3, 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 3-2, 3-3, AU
 
£13.75 up for Sunday. Total profit £241.08

liverpool bets to follow...
 
Liverpool v WBA £26
0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 3-2, 3-3
 
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