Roger Charlton yard

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I was going to leave FINAL CHOICE alone at odds-on until I remembered the stats I posted at the start of this thread..

Odds-on shots 2010 onwards...(all 47/75 - 63%)
handicaps...16/19 (84%)...1111111114111311141

The 14-runner field was a worry for this horse who has been so unlucky on his last two starts, but 4 non-runners makes things a lot easier, even if it means his price has shortened. He Obviously acts on the track and ground and clearly stays the trip, so he really ought to win this off the same mark as last time.

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6.00 Bath - FINAL CHOICE - 3pts win @ 4/6 bog (Coral)

 

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I'm going to leave BANHAM out, it's true that he ran his best race last time but I still wasn't convinced that he's a winner waiting to happen. He seems to lack the turn of foot needed to either win held up off a slow pace or to quicken off the front, and faced with another small field things are unlikely to be ideal for him again. This doesn't look the strongest of handicaps and he might win but I think I'll wait until he gets entered in a big field.

 

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BLAKENEY POINT is worth a go, only beat one home at Musselburgh but as Charlton has said, there were several excuses. Had he not ran in Scotland he'd have been favourite for this, so although a bounceback is required, he looks a spot of value.

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7.30 Bath - BLAKENEY POINT - 1.5pts win @ 5/1 bog

 

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FINAL CHOICE wins like an odds-on shot should.

No bet on the last two as George 'the spastic' Baker rides them.

 

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BLAKENEY POINT ran okay to be 3rd considering he was held up in a race that was run at a crawl.

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Ayrad runs in a trappy race where he may end up having to do his own work on the front end due to the fact Gm Hopkins and Spark Plug seem to be hold up horses over a mile normally. The filly can be prominent but has missed break recently. Ayrad looks very well and has good form at track having ran a blinder behind My Dream Boat earlier in the year.

Maths Prize is a good looking horse from a family we know quite well, having trained Pythagorean for Juddmonte farms, who did well a couple of years back. As per usual our two year olds lack for experience but we hope he can show promise. He is very willing at home to please.

3.25 Sandown - MATHS PRIZE - 6/1 (7.0)
4.00 Sandown - AYRAD - 6/4 (2.54)

I'm leaving MATHS PRIZE alone because it's first-time-out and has Baker on board.

AYRAD does look to have a good chance. He probably has only got GM HOPKINS to beat here as 3rd fav SPARK PLUG is the type who needs a big field and fast pace to produce his strong finish. There are no confirmed front-runners in the field today so the race almost certainly won't be run to suit him
DESSERTOFLIFE did run from the front last season but they've changed tactics and she's totally out of form. Has a bit to find anyway.
This is a perfect opportunity for AYRAD to make all, and if they do that he should win. However, his yard seem to be obsessed with holding horses up no matter what the pace is like, even if the horse is pulling and wants to go quicker they persevere, which is just bizarre for such a top yard to be so one-dimensional.

For example, look what Charlton says about this race above - "Ayrad runs in a trappy race where he may end up having to do his own work on the front end due to the fact Gm Hopkins and Spark Plug seem to be hold up horses over a mile normally" - he says that like it's a bad thing! If you have a horse who likes to race prominently (and doesn't need to be held up) and you find you've entered it in a race where an easy lead is presented to you on a plate, you should be rejoicing not bemoaning the fact that your chances of winning have just increased 5-fold.

How can he not know that if your jockey gets the fractions right in front then he's going to be incredibly hard to pass? I can't get my head around it and it'll be interesting to see how things pan out here. Even if the Johnson horse leads, I still fancy AYRAD to track her and win but I'll be seriously pissed off if the opportunity to lead is there but not taken and the horse doesn't win.

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4.00 Sand - AYRAD - 2pts win @ 6/4 bog

 

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Well I hope George Baker was watching that perfect front-running ride from Atzeni - maybe the thick cunt will learn something

Led, set slow fractions, quickened when challenged 2 out, stayed on strongly. Amazing what you can do when you keep things simple

 

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3.45 Sandown - TIME TEST - 11/2 (6.4)
3.45 Sandown - COUNTERMEASURE - 250/1 (1000.0)
4.20 Sandown - QUEST FOR MORE - 9/2 (5.7)

Today we send Time Test and Countermeasure to the Eclipse. Its been well documented that everywhere has had a brutal summer, with rain all over the place. We were looking for quick ground but in the end we have on the slow side of good. He has in fact won more races on this ground than he has on fast and his win record is pretty solid. Today will be an intriguing race with The Gurkha coming from a hard race at Ascot, where he didn’t quite get all the luck he needed. He steps up 2f with a stiff uphill finish, and has the tongue strap applied. My Dream Boat ran a taking race on soft at Ascot, knuckling down all the way to the line to beat Found on the line. He also had a tough race but is in his prime. Additionally, Western Hymn is a solid yardstick who always runs his race, especially at Sandown and Godolphin have added Hawksbill, who won the Tercentenary 16 days ago. There are two pacemakers and there should be an even pace. Time Test has the benefit of not having run at Ascot, and that he is quick enough to win over a mile, and would probably stay 1m4f if you asked him to. This gives him options in the race, depending how it is run.

Quest for More is a lovely horse who made a good comeback at York after his Australia trip, when just beaten by Moonrise Landing over 1m6f. This is probably his optimum trip today. Preference would have been for fast ground, but he needs to have a run before Goodwood and this falls nicely in the schedule. It’s a deep field for a listed race, but many of them ran 2 weeks ago at Ascot and a few have to give him weight, so he ought to run well. He is in good form at home.

Leaving TIME TEST alone as they've had loads of rain at Sandown which has changed the going to soft, which won't suit.

Ground is also not ideal for QUEST FOR MORE but there's no evidence to say he won't handle it so worth a small bet. Ran a cracker on reappearance considering he'd had an abortive trip to Ireland.

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4.20 Sandown - QUEST FOR MORE - 1pt win @ 9/2 bog

 

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TIME TEST didn't handle the ground as expected. QUEST FOR MORE has been withdrawn.

 

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Rock Steady made a pleasing comeback at Windsor 16 days ago and heads to Kempton.

We were pleased with how he ran at Windsor, on ground that would have been a little bit soft for him. Today he is on the all-weather surface and he obviously won on that at Wolverhampton last year. The winner of his race Sir Roderic has since given the form a boost by winning a competitive race at Sandown last weekend. It is an interesting race and he needs to overcome his wide draw, but hopefully can go close.

One runner today.

6.45 Kempton - ROCK STEADY - 11/4 (3.95)

This horse was given a brainless ride last time (oddly enough not by George Baker, but by William Twiston-Davies), held up out the back in a slowly-run race before staying on strongly to finish 3rd.

Steadied start, held up in last trio, lot to do once leaders kicked on over 3f out, reminders and progress 2f out, took 3rd final furlong, pushed along and nearly snatched 2nd

Would have won with a more intelligent ride and the winner has won since to frank the form. Will be fitter for that reappearance run and trainer says ground was a bit too soft too, so all positives so far...

Oh, George Baker is on board

There are a couple of front-runners here so hopefully there'll be a fair pace on, as there will need to be with Baker no doubt intent on trying his party trick of coming from last to first. I did say I'm not backing Baker again but this horse looks sure to go well and has already been well backed (5.5 into 3.6, now eased a bit to 3.95). No doubt I'll regret this

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ROCK STEADY - 2pts win @ 11/4 bog

 

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Well I deserved that. Held up last, late headway to finish 4th, never put in the race.

What an absolutely appalling jockey that fucker is

 

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9.00 Salisbury - PURE FANTASY - 9/4 (3.75)

I hope Pure Fantasy can continue Beckhampton’s good strike rate in the last at Salisbury a race that both Scuffle and her daughter Suffused won. She handled the very quick ground at Nottingham when winning her last race but this is a step up in class but she looks strong and progressive.

2pts win @ 9/4 bog (she's 11/4 on betfair)