Roger Charlton yard

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3.15 Salisbury - 2pts win HORRAH @ 7/2 bog

HOORAH shortening up, Paddy Power the only bookie still going 7/2 (only 4.4 Betfair), they offer bog and also money back up to £25 if 2nd to SP fav.

 

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Better late than never, Roger...

Horrah returns to the track after an encouraging first start

Horrah ran well behind Forge at Doncaster first time out when Gunmetal was just behind him. He was dropped in and ran on nicely. Hopefully he can make the natutal progression in an interesting race.

Best price 5/2 now, being nicely backed. Come on George, I have every faith in you

 

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ffs man! Backed like it couldn't get beat, yet George somehow managed it

 

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Yes, rather predictably the lanky streak of piss George Baker fucked it up yet again yesterday Admittedly the horse did stumble coming out of the stalls, but it wasn't nearly as bad as the Racing Post are making out and probably cost the horse no more than a length or two. Stumbling at the start is a whole lot different to stumbling mid-race or late on when all momentum can be lost. Baker had every chance to ask the horse to recover and race in midfield but chose to bury the horse away at the back of the field and on to the rail, and the horse thereafter had no chance. He did well to even finish 5th.

The problem with George Baker is that he is a totally one-dimensional jockey - his style is to drop them in, bury them in the pack and come with a late run to get up near the line. This is all well and good when it works, when they go a decent clip and then open up like the Red Sea so he can come storming through looking like Lester Piggott.

But whenever something happens that wasn't part of the plan (like yesterday's early stumble), or when the early pace is funereal (like, often), then he just hasn't got a clue what to do and carries on with Plan A regardless - nearly always resulting in a defeat despite the horse being well fancied in the betting. That's the difference between a good jockey and an average one, the ability to think quickly and react to something unexpected, and Baker just can't seem to do this.

Rant over (until next time, of course )

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2 runners today, although Charlton only bothers to mention one of them on his website...

Fair Eva, by Frankel runs at Haydock today

Obviously there is always going to be a lot of hype about a Frankel, he being the best racehorse ever seen. We have 5 of them and like them, and his other runners have run well.

Fair Eva is an athletic chestnut filly, who is very strong and seems to have a good nature. Her dam was trained by Criquette Head and won the Haydock Sprint. We aren't renowned for first time out two year old winners but we feel she is ready to make her debut on what we hope will be good to firm ground on a nice flat track. There are obviously three runners in the race who have very solid form, with a second and a third from the track, and another who was placed at Doncaster. She is drawn near them and hopefully she can lay up with them in the early stages.

2.40 Haydock - FAIR EVA - 5/4 (2.3)
8.00 Kempton - BATTLEMENT - 5/2 (3.6)

Fair Eva is going to be very popular, being the daughter of Frankel, and she may well win, but I'm leaving her alone at that price. As Charlton says, he doesn't have the best record with his FTO runners, although I suspect he will have this one pretty fit today. She needs to be though, up against several with experience.

Battlement isn't mentioned, which is strange, as she clearly has a decent chance tonight. These small-field early season 3yo handicaps are a nightmare to evaluate but the betting suggests the race might not take that much winning. It's very interesting to see Fran Berry booked to ride, even though he's stable jockey to Ralph Beckett who runs NASSUVIAN PEARL (which has been well backed this morning, incidentally).
Battlement failed to handle the left hand turns at Lingfield and Wolves on her first two runs so this track will suit. The main problem is the probable lack of pace, which is what caused her defeat at Newmarket last time on handicap debut. Given a typical brainless ride by the hapless Baker, she was strangled at the back before making smooth headway but had used up too much energy wanting to run faster early on and flattened out to finish 4th.

Afterwards I wrote this...

Going back to Thursday, the final runner (no bet) was Battlement and they once again messed up by being too desperate to hold the horse up. She moved really well throughout only for her to weaken inside the final furlong (accentuated by George Baker not trying for a place), she touched 1.37 win and 1.01 place.

Obviously the change of jockey is a good thing, and so probably is the drop to 7f - I can't see them making the same mistake as last time, especially over this trip, and surely to God they'll have her better positioned this time. Worth a medium bet but a bit worried about the pace angle. Jockey is in tremendous form (9/29 31% last 10 days, 9/20 45% when shorter than 12/1).

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BATTLEMENT - 2pts win @ 5/2 bog

 

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BATTLEMENT wins @ 11/4

As feared, they went a crawl early, and when BATTLEMENT started pulling for her head I feared the worst, but Fran Berry had the nous to allow his mount to race prominently, they were disputing 2nd place as they turned for home which meant that when the leader tried to kick on off the slow pace, they were perfectly positioned to challenge and win. Had the horse been dropped out in last place she'd have finished no better than 3rd or 4th.

It's amazing what you can achieve by keeping things simple!

 

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2 runners today, but the first one is making his racecourse debut and is ridden by Baker, so no thanks, and the other one is making her seasonal debut so leaving that one alone too.

Sfumato makes his debut at Newbury in a hot looking race with plenty of fancied horses. He is a good looking horse with a good temperament like his father. As ever it is tricky to know how they will react on debut but he shows a bit of speed and hopefully he can put up a good showing. Bated Breath has a made a good start with a smart filly in France and a couple of others in England. You would expect to start seeing some of his better ones now, and this colt is out of Modern Look who was a stakes filly in France.


Pure Fantasy made three encouraging starts last year over 1m. Her 8th at Nottingham was a race that included Architecture, Snow Moon, Herawi, Tiptree and winners behind her, whilst at Lingfield the race was won by a talented filly in Danilovna. At Kempton she was beaten by another oaks runner in Diamonds Pour Moi and Abingdon was behind her. The form stacks up and the step up in trip should suit her today and we just have to hope that the ground is not too quick.

 

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One of Charlton's runners yesterday won nicely, the other finished 10th @ 9/2. It should come as no surprise that the one ridden by George Baker was the one which was well beaten. This takes his record for the yard this season to ZERO from 15, with 12 of those being in the first 3 in the betting. That's some achievement considering the good horses he's riding. He must just be unlucky, or something.

Three runners today, I'll take a closer look later....

Banham has not shown all his ability yet and has been gelded since his last run where he travelled in to the race well. The favourite today is Shabbah who won Banham’s race at Bath, but today there is a 19lbs pull in the weights including Kieron’s claim. If we can see an improved performance today you would like to think he will finish closer to the favourite.

Paling runs at Goodwood, a course that has some similarities to Brighton where he won last time out. We were disappointed he couldn’t win at Doncaster the time before but he didn’t have the best trip and it turns out it was strong race. Today is a step up in grade on last time but he seems in good form and the danger could be the Fanshawe horse who ran in a decent race at Newmarket.

Quick March has not shown us what she is capable of just yet, but she looks very well in her coat, is incredibly fresh and well, and goes without the hood today. This combined with some help from the handicapper should bring about an improved performance on a track we know she handles, as she was unlucky not to win there last year.

 

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4.10 Sand - BANHAM - 10/1 (10.5)
7.20 Good - PALING - 3/1 (4.5)
9.00 Good - QUICK MARCH - 12/1 (12.0)

Banham ran quite well last time but was eventually well held after traveling nicely, hanging left and flattening out. He might do better today with the headgear and having been gelded, but I'm of the opinion that he's going to need a bigger field and strong pace, and he won't be wanting to hang left on this right-handed track either, so I'm leaving him alone today.

 

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They changed tactics on BANHAM and tried to make all, I think it was worth a go because he wasn't going to be suited to being held up in a slowly run race. It didn't work as he dropped away to finish 4th but he did okay. I hope he can be found an entry in a race with plenty of pace in as I think he can win at a nice price.

I had intended on having a small bet on PALING but I was rushing about trying to do 10 things at once and missed the race Saw the final couple of furlongs and it ran really well, looked like winning (went 1.2 in-running) but got collared by one which flew down the outer.

QUICK MARCH was given a ridiculous ride last time by Baker and surely she'll do better tonight. Charlton says she is looking great so worth a small bet although she's the outsider of the whole field.

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9.00 Goodwood - QUICK MARCH - 0.5pts win @ 12/1 bog Bet365

 

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2.10 Sand - CHESTER STREET - 5/1 (6.2)
4.30 Sand - MAKZEEM - 4/1 (4.7)

Chester Street has Ryan Moore and a pair of blinkers today. We dropped him back to a mile last time and he was just got caught out. He was staying on all the way to the line but just ran out of time. He ran very well over 10 furlongs at Newmarket and this should be the ideal trip for him. He still acts like he is very green, and therefore the blinkers are added. He was ridden out in them all winter.

Makzeem ran in the best maiden we have seen this season, when 5th at Nottingham. All the horses around him have done well since, and we hope he can take another step forward. New World Power and Autocratic have fair form but we hope he can ruffle them up.

CHESTER STREET was undone by the slow pace last time over 1m and hopefully they'll go a bit quicker today. The extra furlong and stiff finish will suit and he should be thereabouts.
He seems to lack instant acceleration so hopefully he'll be asked to race prominently (Baker doesn't ride so there's a chance) from his rail draw. He might well go a considerably bigger price in-running, something I'll be trying for.

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CHESTER STREET - 2pts win @ 5/1

 

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MAKZEEM ran 5th in a race which is working out well, although I don't know what Roger Charlton has been smoking if he thinks it's the best maiden we have seen this season. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th have all won since, but all in class 5 maidens, the winner was beaten in a handicap off 87 and the 7th was beaten in a handicap off 71. MAKZEEM is therefore rated somewhere in the late 70's, which certainly gives him a chance in this but by no means a good thing.

Small bet.

MAKZEEM - 1pt win @ 4/1 bog

 

[ONEDUNME]

Unlucky mate - traded at 1.1 in running

 

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Chester Street was well backed in to co-fav, he led and was given every chance but once the pressure was applied he dropped away weakly. Not sure where they are going to go with him, maybe he's another who is going to need a big field and strong pace.

Makzeem ran much better, traveling strongly throughout and very much looking like the winner but just couldn't hold off the strong late challenge of the Stoute runner. As ODM has said, he traded as low as 1.1, so quite unlucky.

 

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Huntsmans Close sneaks in to the Wokingham from the reserve bench.

Having only run one of the horses this week, we were delighted when Ann Duffield pulled George Dryden out of the Wokingham in time for Huntsmans to sneak in.

This time last year we were full of hope. He had had a great prep for the race and sadly he got loose walking down the tunnel, jumped the rail on the inside and was uncatchable. Luckily nobody nor himself were hurt. He has behaved very well on his two runs this year and we plan to use the same tactic of going down to the start early. James Doyle is a brave jockey and gets on well with him. He is 2lbs higher for the race than he was last year but only just sneaked in. He is drawn in 9, so on the far side, but not so far that he has to be on the rail which gives him options. He is next to the favourite in Brando who can go forward, along with Accession and Mutawathea on that side who are 7f horses who will want to go forward you would think. Poyle Vinnie can also be prominent.

rushed for time so no analysis...

5.00 Ascot - HUNTSMANS CLOSE - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 bog PaddyPower (1/4 odds, 6 places)

 

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HUNTSMANS CLOSE never figured in the race at Ascot.

One runner today...

6.50 Windsor - ROCK STEADY - 8/1 (11.0)

Rock Steady doesn’t necessarily want it soft but has run two fair races on it as a two-year-old, and needs to have a run, so he will take his chance. He seems to be in good order and we hope he can handle the ground well. His form from last year is very solid.

Not much confidence today on Betfair behind this one, which is unusual for a Charlton runner. Also the horse has a habit of hanging left which will be a problem here if, as in the first race, they stay stands side, so no bet.

 

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3.40 Newm - HORRAH - 3/1 (4.2)
4.45 Newm - KUMMIYA - 8/1 (9.4)
7.45 Newb - KUANTAN - 5/1 (6.6)

Horrah heads to Newmarket for a 7f maiden. The ground is now soft and there is an expectancy of more rain coming this morning. We never thought he wanted very quick ground, but at the same time bottomless is not what many horses want. He will take his chance but we expect there to be further non runners up there.

Kummiya is similar to Horrah in terms of ground conditions required. He ran no sort of race when he made his debut on soft ground at Newbury last year. The weather has been so bad and these horses need to run, so we will let him take his chance.

Kuantan starts his life as a handicapper on a mark of 69. He rather threw his last race away, when hanging left in the final two furlongs at Nottingham. Today he has cheek pieces and he will be ridden more patiently. He is in good nick at home and hopefully there is not too much further rain.

ROCK STEADY ran a really nice race on Monday and is one to be on next time for sure.

I was too busy to check Charlton's runners yesterday, he had two and one won at 20/1 and the other was an unlucky 2nd. I would have backed the loser and left the winner alone, so dodged a bullet there.

Three runners today, I was on HORRAH last time only for it to stumble early on and then given a typically clueless ride by Baker. The horse should run better today in this weaker race but the fav has better form and this coupled with HORRAH being unproven on soft and the fact Baker retains the ride, I'll be leaving it alone today. If it wins it wins, but I just can't bring myself to back Baker anymore.

KUMMIYA is very difficult to weigh up. Quite well fancied on hcap/seasonal debut last time in a hot race at Ascot but showed little. He's probably needed the run and is surely better than that, but he ran awful on soft ground last season and it sounds as if Charlton is desperate to get a run in to him and is running him despite the going, so an interesting runner but no bet.

I was also on KUANTAN last time but after attracting a load of support he disgraced himself by hanging badly left inside the final 2 furlongs after traveling very strongly. I stated headgear was needed and they've stuck cheekpieces on which hopefully will help. He's drawn bang on the rail on this round mile which also can only be a positive.

A mark of 69 could prove to be very lenient and Baker doesn't ride, so I think he's worth another go.

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7.45 Newb - KUANTAN - 2pts win @ 5/1 bog

 

[ONEDUNME]

I was on it already Seen but I'll treble my stake on it now that I've read that. Young horse - first time in a handicap, first time with an official rating so, basically the handicapper is guessing how good it is and whether or not it can improve as it learns its lines. Opened at 6/1 and is now 5s with everyone so nothing to put potential backers off.

Same comments apply to Roccor which I'm also on each way at 14/1.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Blacklister leading at the business end and end up getting beaten - hopefully by one of mine

 

[ONEDUNME]

"Three runners today, I was on HORRAH last time only for it to stumble early on and then given a typically clueless ride by Baker. The horse should run better today in this weaker race but the fav has better form and this coupled with HORRAH being unproven on soft and the fact Baker retains the ride, I'll be leaving it alone today. If it wins it wins, but I just can't bring myself to back Baker anymore."

It wins

 

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Two runners to Wolverhampton in the form of Pacific Salt and De Aguilar.

De Aguilar has had very little luck since the back end of last season. His best two races have both been at Wolverhampton over a slightly shorter trip than today. He has been gelded and we hope that he can get his head in front today.

Pacific Salt ran a taking race last time out at Lingfield. He settled well, appeared to get the trip well, and should be aided by the extra 141yds. Kieron got a good tune out of him and hopefully today can be the day when he loses his maiden tag.

3.55 Wolves - DE AGUILAR - 14/1 (18.5)
6.00 Wolves - PACIFIC SALT - 7/2 (4.6)

De Aguilar hasn't shown much away from Wolverhampton but has ran well both times here (3rd and 2nd, both runs in maidens). He's been gelded since his last outing so might go well, but on the other hand might not. I was hoping to see confidence behind him on Betfair this morning but he's been weak (11.0 out to 19.0) which is usually a big negative for this yard. Small bet in case he wins at a nice price, might increase stake if late money comes.

0.5pts win @ 16/1 bog Bet365

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Pacific Salt ran really well last time on handicap debut over 1m in a first-time hood after showing very little in 3 runs over 6f in maidens. Hopefully the headgear can work again and he holds solid claims here.

2pts win @ 7/2 bog

 

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PACIFIC SALT 2nd

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5 runners today...

6.00 Bath - FINAL CHOICE - 4/6 (1.71)
6.30 Bath - BANHAM - 11/4 (3.85)
7.30 Bath - BLAKENEY POINT - 5/1 (6.0)
8.00 Bath - CLOUDBERRY - 5/1 (6.4)
9.00 Bath - QUICK MARCH - 9/2 (5.4)

5 runners to our local track Bath this evening.

Final Choice has been very unlucky 3 times now. He goes to Bath drawn in 14 which is not ideal as he has a tendency to miss the break. If he runs like he did last time he should go very close,he is due to go up 5lbs for future races.

Banham ran a blinder last time out at Sandown and just got found out up the hill. The race included a number of nice horses and White Shaheen who just nabbed him for 3rd bolted up this week at Wolverhampton. The ground may become on the slow side for him but the weather has become impossible to pick these days.

Blakeney Point did not enjoy his trip to Scotland last time. He was drawn wide, and he was never able to get in on the tight turning track. The ground was also rapid, and it was too much for him. His jockey sensibly left him alone. Tonight he takes on an old foe in the favourite whom he beat at Leicester and we are 2lbs better off than that day. It is a strong race but you would expect so given the great prize money that Bath have put on. The ground should suit as he coped well with it at Goodwood.

Cloudberry runs back off a lay off. He shaped ok first time out in a strong maiden at Newbury and has just been slow to come to hand this season. He is making progress at the moment, but the Alan King horse will take some beating.

Quick March was unable to show her true form at Goodwood. The two Hannon horses and she had a barging match and they were left detached with no cover. They went slow in the race and the leaders quickened from the front. Bath should suit and hopefully they go a nice even pace for her and we can see some of her old spark.