Roger Charlton yard

[Seen]

Well the trainer was talking bollocks. It ran a cracking race (just like first time out last year and the year before) and was just outbattled in the end but still good enough to finish 6 or 7 lengths of the rest.

He didn't say specifically that Quest would need the run, he actually said he was in good form, so he expected him to run well. But the trainer is now 0/17 with his runners coming off a 130+ day lay off this year after his gallops problems so personally I've decided to leave them alone, at least until they start winning, anyway. 6 of the 17 have been placed so they are running well first time out like Quest did, but maybe in previous years a few of those placed efforts would have been winners.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Yeah I know what you're saying mate but some horses just run well fresh, just like some horses can run three times in a week and some need a month off. I wouldn't let a general comment about the whole yard put me off of one specific horse is what I was getting at.

The yard as a whole may not be where the trainer wants it to be but that doesn't mean that one animal isn't chomping at the bit to get on the race course.

 

[Seen]

I agree completely mate, and there was nothing wrong with your bet on Quest yesterday, you were a bit unlucky to be fair as it ran really well. Truth be told I was in such a rush yesterday I had a 10 minute window between getting home and starting work so didn't even have time to analyse the 2 races properly (and why I couldn't reply until later), I just had to have a quick read of the trainers comments...he was positive about both so to be fair to him he was spot on.

But I'm trying to be selective on this thread because backing all of his runners blindly will result in a loss, so I'm just looking for angles to disregard some of the runners. To be honest, the 'lack of a run' angle is now probably defunct as the problems he had with his gallops was in the early months of the year so while his early turf season runners were clearly affected, it probably doesn't apply now.

 

[Seen]

No runners today, but he has a couple of runners at Windsor tomorrow night.

Charlton's form over the last week reads 211343143212.

 

[ONEDUNME]

No runners today, but he has a couple of runners at Windsor tomorrow night.

Charlton's form over the last week reads 211343143212.

80% place strike rate - the highest in the country for the last 7 days. Very encouraging.

 

[Seen]

2 runners tonight...

6.15 Windsor - PACIFIC SALT - 25/1 (28.0)
6.45 Windsor - PINA - 10/1 (12.0)

Pacific Salt returns to the track having been gelded. He has not shown what we would have hoped thus far, but hopefully the operation can aid him.

Pina makes her handicap debut at Windsor this evening, and steps back up in trip to a mile having run over 7f. Her form has taken a few boosts, and it appeared to be a fair maiden. I hope she can win as she is very well bred. Tom Marquand takes the ride.

Pacific Salt ran green on both of his maiden runs so far, quite short in the market both times, he would have needed the run last time but was still beaten a long way. He's had his 'nads lopped off in the meantime so there is a possibility he could show dramatic improvement, but there's no confident in the betting so far which usually tells the story for this yard. No bet although could change my mind nearer the off if he starts being backed.

Pina also was a bit disappointing in her first two runs and finished well held last time at Doncaster. The form of that race is working out well and off a mark of just 63 Pina could be very well-in here - last time out she finished one place ahead of 74-rated BACK TO BOND who has won a maiden since, beating a horse rated 81, and finished one place behind GUNMENTAL, who went on to finish a good 2nd in a Newbury maiden.

Obviously it's never as cut and dried as that, but still, 63 does look like a lenient mark for a well bred unexposed horse from this yard. The main worry is the fact that it hasn't been backed this morning, you would think if it's thought to be well-in by the yard then it would be a lot shorter than it is, but even so it's got to be worth a small bet. If it's price starts collapsing I might be back to double the stake!

~~~~~~~~~~

PINA 6.45 Windsor - 1pt win @ 10/1 bog Bet365

 

[Punter]

Just joined you on PINA, 10/1, 8/1 without the fav and 11/4 to place

 

[Seen]

Pacific Salt was unfancied in the betting (33/1) and finished well held.

Pina finished 5th (12/1), so not a bad run at all but at the same time showing that his mark wasn't lenient, but about right. Actually his run might be a little better than it first looked, as the pace that he chased might have been overly fast, as 3 of the first 4 home came from well out the back, and he did stick on okay.
Also, he hung left on his first two starts and did a little tonight on the run for home, he possibly needs a rail to his left to help him. I also got the impression that the extended mile trip (1m 67yards) was too far and he might need stepping back to an easy mile or even a stiff 7f.
Not one to give up on but at the same time he doesn't really look like one to be confident about following.

 

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One runner today...

5.35 Lingfield - FINAL CHOICE - 9/2 (5.7)

Final Choice makes his handicap debut today at Lingfield.

Final Choice never produced what we saw at home on the track last year. He was very green and colty on a few occasions, whilst also not being the quickest away from the stalls. He has been gelded and looks very well. He will come on for the race as you would expect, as he is a big gross horse, and the track itself may not be entirely to his liking. I hope he can show a lot more ability than he did before.

From the trainer's comments and on trainer form this season, it looks like this horse will need the run today, which is why it's surprising that he's been well backed (8.8 into 5.7 on Betfair) - although this is not uncommon for a Charlton horse. Obviously falls in to the 'could be anything' category today after 3 well-held runs in all-weather maidens as a 2yo, and the gelding operation and extra 2f could see a massive improvement, but he seemed short of pace as a juvenile, often getting outpaced in his races, which ties in with what his trainer says about today's sharp undulating track possibly not suiting.

That said, an opening mark of 51 is extremely low for a Charlton handicap debutante so it would be no surprise if he turns out much better than that. I think he'll finish somewhere between 4th and 8th today (especially with Baker on board who won't persevere when the winning chance has gone) and is one for next time, preferably on a more galloping track. If it wins then so be it, but all evidence points to it not winning today.

No bet.

Just had a quick look at Charlton's record for the Queen, I thought he trained plenty of winners for her but has just a 4.6% strike rate (2/43) over the last 4 seasons with her horses, which is really poor compared to Stoute (29%) and Haggas (34%).

 

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One runner tonight...

7.45 Sandown - TIME TEST - 5/2 (3.6)

No comments from the trainer yet on his website, for some reason, but I'm leaving this one alone on his seasonal debut. He's clearly got the form to win but the fav INTILAAQ has slightly stronger form and is guaranteed to be fit after a run in Meydan in March. WESTERN HYMN has been a bit below par this season but won this race in 2015 so could easily go well, as could SCOTTISH on his debut for Godolphin.

Too many question marks around this race for me, TIME TEST might well win but I'm happy to let it go at this price.

No bet.

 

[Seen]

Just going back to comment on yesterday's runner Final Choice - my prediction of him finishing between 4th and 8th was correct (he finished 4th) but that doesn't tell the whole story. Heavily backed in to 3/1 from 9/2, he stood still as the stalls opened and lost a fair few lengths at the start, he then ran on very strongly inside the final furlong down the outer to just miss out on a place and with a better start would have gone close to winning.

Obviously one to be on next time but everyone else will want to be on too!

 

[Punter]

I dont blame you for leaving Time Test out Seen, like you said to many questions against some top horses, but that turned out to be a class performance in the end. Superb.
I guess the main pointer there was no comment from the trainer on the website?

 

[Seen]

Hi mate,

Yeah, the horse won well, obviously he was helped by the favourite running a stinker but I don't think that should be used to take anything away from the winner, a very game winner beating a good yardstick in last years winner. I know I keep banging on about George Baker, but there's no way Time Test would have won with him on board - an all-too-late fast-finishing 2nd after being strangled out the back no doubt - it was a superb ride by Ryan Moore.

The trainer did finally post his comments (or at least the person who does website did), but it must have been real close to the off as I was checking up until an hour before the race and there was nothing there. Here is what was said...

TIme Test returns to the track

Time Test progressed a long way last year from being a 93 rated horse in a handicap, to competing at the top level. His performance at Ascot on fast ground was exceptional and we are looking forward to getting him back on fast ground for only the second time in his career. I just hope that is as quick as they say. It is a strong race and he has to give 5lbs to the field but we are very happy with his condition, even factoring in his round trip to Ireland on the weekend. Ryan Moore takes the ride and gets on well with him.

So they did seem confident of a good run, even allowing for the fact that the horse had a wasted trip to Ireland last weekend - it's just a shame they didn't tell us earlier! Perhaps I would have had a small 1pt win on had that message been up earlier, but maybe not. As I've said previously, I'm trying to be selective and this is the first winner from the yard since I started this thread that I haven't backed so not doing too badly, I was bound to leave a winner out sooner or later, at least it wasn't a 10/1 chance.

At least this win confirms the yard is still in top form.

No runners Friday, looks like just the one on Saturday, a FTO 2yo called SILENT ECHO in the 5.50 at Salisbury. Unless the trainer is confident I doubt it'll be a bet, as he had just 1 first-time-out 2yo winner from 26 runners last season (4%).

 

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I'm ill with a stomach bug (puking and shitting since 4am ) so just a quickie.

Charlton runs one today, Intermittent in the 3.00 at Nottingham. He hasn't posted on his website yet so I've no idea if he fancies it or not, even though he tweeted a message about Imperial Aviator being supplemented for a race in France on Sunday.

I'm not backing it, even though it's a decent price (10/1). This is the one I backed last time only for clueless Baker to strangle her at the back of a small field run at a crawl, and although there's more runners today there doesn't seem to be any front runners so it's probably going to be another tactical affair, and I just can't trust Baker to get it right, and no point backing ew because he drops his hands as soon as he can't win.

 

[Seen]

In the same race I'm having a go on DORA'S FIELD at 12's - this one was a massive non-trier in a maiden at Newmarket when 5th at 100/1, blew the start on the AW last time but could easily win this on handicap debut.

 

[Seen]

Intermittent ran exactly as I predicted - held up out the back by one-dimensional Baker off the slow pace, was switched to the outer to try and mow them down but was given an impossible task and ended up finishing 6th, beaten 2.5l. A good run in the circumstances and will win a race as soon as she gets a strong pace or a change of jockey.

Two runners today...

6.10 Kempton - LEAPING - 25/1 (38.0)
8.10 Kempton - COUNTERMEASURE - 13/2 (7.8)

Leaping ran an encouraging race at Salisbury on her first start. It was a deep race and she finished not too far behind some 70 rated fillies. She is a long striding filly, who will apreciate the step up in trip to 1m 4f. Sadly it appears to be the stronger of the two divisions but hopefully she can take a step forward.

Countermeasure is a horse that came from France, where he was trained by Andre Fabre. He is a good looking horse and was the pacemaker for New Bay in the Prix Niel and Prix Guillaume D'Ornano, both Group 2's. He is rated 79 and hopefully he can win from that mark as he works well at home. The draw could have been better but hopefully he can show his ability.

Can't fancy LEAPING, who will be much better off when contesting handicaps. COUNTERMEASURE is very hard to weigh up, form figures of 654697 in France but was beaten less than a length on two of those occasions (including first time out) so clearly has ability. Trainer says he works well at home and no mention of him needing the run. He's been well backed on Betfair, as high as 22.0 early and an interesting £800 bet at 10.0 as can be seen from the graph below...

This will probably go one way or the other - hack up off a lenient mark or finish well held in need of the run/experience. Small bet.

~~~~~~~~~~

COUNTERBALANCE - 1pt win @ 13/2 bog Bet365

 

[Kegman]

Unlucky Seen. Nailed on the line in a very very tight photo. Even still watching the replay i think it looks the winner as the go past.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Bollocks! Missed the race . Noticed the price was coming in and backed it ew at 13/2. Good pointer Seen.

 

[Kegman]

It was beat on the nod ODM. Basteille Day just happened to reach the line at its upmost stretch. Very unlucky loser imo.

 

[Seen]

Hi guys,

Yes, as Kegs says it was an incredible unlucky loser, it's body was actually in front as they hit the line but he raced with his head a bit high whereas the winner had his head down just as they hit the line. Beaten the minimum distance (nose) and traded at the minimum price on betfair (1.01 to 9k) - you can't really get much more unfortunate than that!

As always, I did trade on my bet in-running and because it went so short I managed to win just as much as if it had won, but obviously for the purposes of this thread it goes down as a loser.

I know I keep banging on about riding tactics and George Baker, but how refreshing was it to see Andrea Atzeni use his initiative here, the horse didn't break that well but his jockey realised early that there was no pace on so instead of fannying about trying to get his horse to settle like Baker would have, he rushed the horse up from his wide draw to lead and very, very nearly pulled it off.

Credit to William Buick on the winner as well, as he too was drawn wide and did a similar move to Atzeni. It's no surprise that the two horses that raced in first and second throughout in this slowly run race finished first and second. Incidentally, back in 3rd place was George Baker on Major Crispies, on who he had actually broken well (was in 2nd place after 100 yards) but as usual he hauled him back in to mid division (despite the horse clearly wanting to go on) and came through with his customary all-too-late finish. His mount is one to be on next time (providing they change the jockey) as I think he'd have gone mighty close to winning had he been ridden by a jockey with a bit of tactical nous.

I'm going to try and upload the video of the race later, it really is worth a watch to see the difference in quality of these 3 jockeys.