Roger Charlton yard

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Irrevocable can't be backed on her debut as she'll need the experience for sure. Her trainer's stats for 3yo first ever run since 2013 reads...1/33 (3%).

Scamper (7.40 Leic) is a difficult one to weigh up, this is what her trainer said about her before her debut last time...

Scamper is a very well bred filly, being by Oasis Dream out of Wince who won the 1000 Guineas. Interestingly Wince won over 5f first time out. Scamper looked like she could have been a 2yo last year, but she grew a lot and so we gave her time. She is in good nick, well muscled and looks well in her coat. She has a cruising speed and it is a shame she is drawn in 17 on the outside, as for an inexperienced filly it would be helpful to get some cover amongst the pack. There are two obvious horses in the race who have run before and a few other well bred ones but i hope she can show a bit.

She was sent off as the 11/4 fav at Donc but she could only finish 9th. She wasn't too well away and then ran green without cover, she made a mid-race move which soon flattened out. She will clearly come on for that experience and is clearly liked by the yard, but bar the winner the subsequent form has been poor so far.

She does look over-priced at 20/1 (she was only 7/1 in the RP tissue) but does need to come on a fair bit from last time. Small ew bet and I do think she'll start nearer 10/1 than 20's.

0.5pts ew @ 20/1 bog

 

[Seen]

Chester Street (8.10 Leic) badly needed the run last time with his trainer saying pre-race...

Chester Street just managed to get up and win at Kempton last year. He was unbelievably green and was over the winter at home. He is just starting to learn what it is all about but will definitely come on for the run looking at his stomach.

...so did well to finish 4th after setting the pace, especially as his trainer says he didn't handle the dip. The form hasn't been tested yet but they were well strung out and the winning time compared very favourable to the preceding Pretty Polly Listed Stakes over the same CD. He drops in class and trip tonight and he ought to run a big race, although I doubt he'll lead this time with confirmed front-runner Miniaturist in opposition. Can't say I'm enamored with the price (7/4) but there doesn't really look like too much in the way of dangers lurking so he's still worth a bet.

2pts win @ 7/4

 

[Seen]

Blakeney Point (8.40 Leic) also looks worth a bet tonight. Before his seasonal reappearance, Charlton said this of him...

He took a bit of time to find his feet last year. He showed more promise at Kempton on his final start and will definitely appreciate a step up in trip. He is quite a gross horse and all of ours are needing theirs first run, having not been able to use the grass as much due to the rain. Hopefully he can show some promise for the future in what is a competitive race.

After he finished 3rd I wrote...

He (Charlton) reiterated the fact that his horses are needing their first run (and the reason why) so with that in mind, Blakeney Point ran an absolute cracker to finish 3rd at 10/1 (from 12's), especially as the winner nicked the race from the front. Definitely one to be on next time.

He raced about 12 horses wide down the straight whereas the first two home raced on or near the far rail. He finished his race off really well and must have a big chance tonight on paper. He was available at 11/2 early this morning before being backed in to 7/2. He's now shortened in to 2/1 with some books which is a total joke as he's 10/3 (4.3) at Betfair.

My only worry is, once again, the possible lack of pace, as he has needed a fair amount of stoking up on his 3 runs so far, and Kieran Shoemark rides, who looked devoid of intelligence on Intermittent last week when it was clear they were going a crawl. He looks like the type to go a big price in-running before staying on strongly so I'll be trying for big odds in-play, although obviously won't count in this thread's P&L.

2pts win @ 3/1 (SportingBet)

 

[Punter]

Well done with Blakeney Point, Seen. Won really well. Did you get a bigger price in running?

I've finally got round to using a tracker and i've put the horse that finished second in it, Duck A L'orange. Interesting that Jamie Spencer had been riding in Deauville this afternoon and flew back for this ride at Leicester tonight. He was deliberately slow to start and was happy to sit behind them all in the race. Finished like a train to get 2nd.

 

[ONEDUNME]

That's what Spencer does. He's a cunt. Looks good when he comes from last to first but loses more races than he wins through showboating.

 

[Seen]

ODM is spot on re Spencer and ODM will no doubt be seething as he's just finished 2nd on his fancy GENO in a race he probably should have won (touched 1.36 I think) - sitting there with a double handful trying to be a clever cunt

edit: Spencer's just done it again on Laughton - a classic example of a jockey who refuses to keep things simple.

Anyway, back to the thread...

Not got time to recap on yesterday's bets so will do that this evening. One runner today but for some reason Charlton's website hasn't been updated yet so I don't know if he fancies it.

Tuesday 17th May
4.50 Nott - KUANTAN - 9/1 (9.8)

Kuantan needed the run last time at Windsor and ran about as well as expected, finishing 7th on his racecourse debut. Will strip fitter today and is up against a bunch of unraced and one-raced rivals, so must have a chance.
No point bothering with each-way with George Baker on board so just a small win bet - no doubt will finish placed now

1pt win @ 9/1 bog (Bet365)

 

[Seen]

Paling - 1pt win @ 3/1 bog
Scamper - 0.5pts ew @ 20/1 bog
Chester Street - 2pts win @ 7/4
Blakeney Point - 2pts win @ 3/1
Kuantan - 1pt win @ 9/1 bog

Paling was well ridden by William Twiston-Davies, having him prominent throughout in a slowly run race (George Baker are you watching?), before leading 2f out and winning nicely.
Scamper didn't shorten like I thought he would but still ran a fair race in 4th behind some decent maidens - handicaps beckon.
Chester Street was heavily backed in to 11/10 but only finished 3rd. I would like to blame Baker but in fairness he didn't do much wrong, the horse just took too much time to quicken and was a fast finishing 3rd, beaten just one length. His wide draw didn't help.
Blakeney Point was an impressive winner after also being well backed. I missed the early 11/2 and had to make do with 3/1 on offer, and that was at SportingBet with no bog - luckily it didn't matter as his SP was 5/2.
Kuantan ran a strange race yesterday, he was smashed in from 9/1 in to 3/1 before settling at 4/1. He was clearly fancied and traveled like a dream and looked like the winner when taking it up 2f out (went 2.3 in-running) only to start lugging away to his left as soon as the pressure was applied. Baker tried to rectify it with his whip but the horse was having none of it and Baker allowed him to coast home, dropping in to 4th. Headgear beckons I would think - plenty of ability there.

So another two winners on the board and a couple of near misses too (see updated first post). Baker is now 0/10 for this yard this season, after hitting 20% for them in the previous 4 years. Unlucky or incompetent?

No runners today.

 

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Forgot to mention Irrevocable who ran an absolute stormer on her racecourse debut, fluffing the start completely and finding herself detached at the back of the field, she ran on in very encouraging style up the rail to grab an unlikely 3rd. Given her trainer's record of 1/34 with his FTO 3yo's in recent years, it goes without saying that she's one to follow.

 

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8.00 Sandown - HIGH SHIELDS - 6/1 (7.4)

High Shields is a huge horse who will make a few in the field look small. He ran a nice race at Kempton at the back end of last season, when he didn't have the clearest of passages. He was always going to be a horse for this year and next and we hope he can take a step forward in what is a very deep field. He wants fast ground and he will stay beyond this trip in time.

Made his debut at Ascot in a warm maiden when very much in need of the experience (5 of the 7 who finished ahead of him won next time out), and then ran really well to finish 2nd at Kempton, having to come wide for a run before finishing strongly. The didn't go a great gallop and he was the only one of the first four home to come from off the pace. The horse who finished a length behind him in 3rd is now rated 80 which means High Shields should be good enough to take this class 5 maiden.

The main issue is fitness, as most of Charlton's runners have been needing the run, and with this horse being described as a huge horse you would think he'd be hard to get fit, but his trainer says nothing about him needing the run so perhaps he'll be ready. He's already shortened from 7/1 and he's worth a small bet despite the fitness doubts.

~~~~~~~~~~

1pt win @ 6/1 bog

 

[ONEDUNME]

On it ew 6/1

 

[Seen]

High Shields ran well to finish 3rd yesterday.

One runner today...

4.35 Goodwood - HUNTSMANS CLOSE - 6/1 (7.0)

Huntsmans Close returns to Goodwood.

It is a compact field for a sprint handicap, with only 8 runners but they are horses he knows well.

Clear Spring finished next to him at Newmarket, whilst Seeking Magic and Englishman were second and first respectively in the race. They have both gone up 4lbs and he has dropped 2lbs, so he has a nice 6lbs pull. Ruwaiyan won the race last year and has dropped down on to the same mark, which makes him a danger if he is ready to go.

We think the small field will suit Huntsmans and he ran a blinder in the Stewards Cup to be 6th to Magical Memory when seeing a bit too much daylight.

This one was a bit disappointing last time when only 11th at Newmarket considering he goes well fresh, but perhaps he needed the run like most of his stablemates. Trainer seems quite confident and he should go well, but it does look highly competitive despite the small field.

~~~~~~~~~~

1pt win @ 6/1 bog (StanJames)

 

[Seen]

Well you can't get more unlucky than that!

Huntsmans Close was coming with what looked like a winning run (touched evens in-running I think) only to be taken right across the full width of the course (and badly squeezed up) by the favourite Seeking Magic, who went on to win the race. The stewards decided that the winner's wayward antics cost Huntsmans Close the race and disqualified him, placing him behind Huntsmans. Unfortunately Go Far had flown up the centre of the track, missing all of the trouble, to split the pair and had to be promoted ahead of Huntsmans, even though Huntsmans clearly would have beaten him with a clear run, so yet another near miss.

Frustrating, but good to see the yards horses running well, though.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Unlucky with that one mate. I watched the race live - just switched in on as I got home so didn't have a clue which race it was as they flashed through the last 100 yards or so but definitely unlucky to be beaten

 

[Seen]

2 runners today..

2.15 Goodwood - DECORATED HERO - 7/2 (4.6)
2.40 York - QUEST FOR MORE - 7/2 (4.7)

Decorated Knight goes to Goodwood to run in the Festival Stakes, just short of 1m 2f. The furthest he has run is 1m 1f, but he has been very settled at home and his pedigree suggests that he should be able to. His form is better on fast ground and we would be hoping they don't have any more rain.

Quest for More is up at York to run in the 1m 6f listed race. He hasn't run since he was 9th in the Melbourne Cup but he seems in good form. He has never run on anything worse than good and he is probably better on fast ground. The plan is to get a run in to him before the Ascot Gold Cup and this race fits well.

Rushing for time so no time for much analysis...bet on DECORATED KNIGHT who should go well but leaving QUEST FOR MORE as he will probably need the run.

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2pts win DECORATED KNIGHT @ 7/2 bog (StanJames )

 

[ONEDUNME]

I've backed Quest for More mate. What makes you think it will need the run? It finished 2nd in its first run of the season last year and third on its first run the year before. I took 4/1 last night and my only worry is the Spencer factor as this horse has usually been ridden quite handily when it's ran well recently. I think it's a good bet.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Just noticed the other one won at 4/1. I was looking for Decorated Hero

 

[Seen]

Yeah, sorry 'bout that typo, rushing about like a loon

Anyway, Decorated Knight won really nicely, the race was won at a farcical pace but luckily Atzeni had the horse in a good prominent position and was well placed to quicken when the pace finally got going. He was quite keen early, which explains why he traded at 11.5 in-running (in-running players don't like hard-pullers and tend to overreact), but thankfully it didn't stop him winning.

I think it's fair to say that if that clown George Baker was riding him he'd have strangled him out the back and would not have won. Every single winner from this yard recently have raced prominently, while every runner that has been held up has lost. It's not rocket science. Just keep things simple, ffs.

I was right to leave Quest For More alone, but only just. He ran a cracker to go down by less than a length in 2nd, touching 1.82 in-running.

ODM - regarding his fitness, Charlton has stated several times on his website that his horses are behind in their work this season, due to problems with the gallops, which is why I'm trying to leave alone anything that is making their seasonal reappearance, regardless of previous form when fresh.

last raced 130+ days ago (all 18%)
2016...0/17 (0%)...23570036745304032

A good example is HUNTSMANS CLOSE, this horse had previous first-time-out form figures of 2612, and should have gone well on his first run of 2016 3 weeks ago, but could only finish 11th. He showed how much that run had brought him on by being an unlucky loser yesterday.

Quest For More has won 2nd time out on each of the last 3 seasons so will obviously be one to be on next time.

 

[Seen]

Copied from front page for update purposes...

BETS (updated as we go)

Running total
18.5pts staked
31pts returned
profit +12.5 (+68% ROI)

BANHAM - 0.5pts ew - unpl 20/1
HUNTSMANS CLOSE - 0.5pt win - unpl 10/1
QUICK MARCH - 1pt win - unpl 10/1
MAKZEEM - 0.5pts ew - unpl 18/1
INTERMITTENT - 1pt win - unpl 11/4
AYRAD - 1pt win - 2nd 8/1
IMPERIAL AVIATOR - 2pts win - Won 7/2
PALING - 1pt win - Won 3/1
SCAMPER - 0.5pts ew - unpl 20/1
CHESTER STREET - 2pts win - 3rd 7/4
BLAKENEY POINT - 2pts win - Won 3/1
KUANTAN - 1pt win - unpl 9/1
HIGH SHIELDS - 1pt win - 3rd 6/1
HUNTSMANS CLOSE - 1pt win - 2nd 7/1
DECORATED HERO - 2pts win - Won 4/1

 

[Seen]

Ticking along nicely now after a slow start, it's pleasing that I'm getting the staking right as the 4 bigger bets have provided the best results...

IMPERIAL AVIATOR - 2pts win - Won 7/2
CHESTER STREET - 2pts win - 3rd 7/4
BLAKENEY POINT - 2pts win - Won 3/1
DECORATED HERO - 2pts win - Won 4/1

 

[ONEDUNME]

I was right to leave Quest For More alone, but only just. He ran a cracker to go down by less than a length in 2nd, touching 1.82 in-running.

ODM - regarding his fitness, Charlton has stated several times on his website that his horses are behind in their work this season, due to problems with the gallops, which is why I'm trying to leave alone anything that is making their seasonal reappearance, regardless of previous form when fresh.
.

Well the trainer was talking bollocks. It ran a cracking race (just like first time out last year and the year before) and was just outbattled in the end but still good enough to finish 6 or 7 lengths of the rest.