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Roger Charlton yard

Good luck with them, especially as I've already backed two of them:lol. Got 3/1 on Dutch Uncle last night and backed Tibr this morning without the fav (which is one of my tracker horses so I couldn't go against it - just a bit of a saver bet).
 
I'm on something of a winning streak (due to end today no doubt) and got some cash to get rid of and so I've chucked up a couple of lucky 15s (one win, one ew) just to give the bookies a bit back bless 'em. I've put CC in the ew one and the 350 in the win one.

My biggest bet of the day, 205 maiden wexford at prices between 7/4 and 6/4 - Evening Hush
 
Two decent winners and a placed each way price. Good arrows:thumb
 
Hmmph...just gotten round to updating this thread, as ODM has said the Ed Dunlop trio I backed on Saturday resulted in 2 winners and a 3rd, a nice little profit there, a shame the other couldn't quite get there.

Just seen that he's got 5 runners today and one of them has already run....it's no surprise really that the fucking thing has won without me being on it :grr (INNISCASTLE LAD 3/1) - it was the only horse he took to Brighton too.

Anyway he has 4 more today, although only one of them is currently shorter than 7/1...

5.50 Winds - CHARIOTEER (20/1)
6.50 Winds - JUSTICE FIRST (11/1)
7.50 Winds - BLUSHES (11/1)
8.20 Winds - MICHAEL'S MOUNT (2/1)

If one of the first 3 is well backed in to 7/1 or shorter I'll back them single and in a double with the last one, if not I'll leave the last one as 2/1 is a bit skinny for me and I've missed the boat as I would have had the Brighton winner in a double with it...it'll win now :lol

His recent form with horses sent off at 7/1 or shorter now reads 121173411621161513111....12/21 - 57%
 
Catching up on the bets from Friday...

Quick March will have needed the run last time and as a 2yo improved massively from her first run to her second, so I'm not too worried that she only finished 16th at Donny last time. As her trainer says, she drops in class today and is down 2lbs. The negative is that her maiden win hasn't really worked out so her OR is probably about right, these early season 3yo handicaps are a nightmare to evaluate, especially when like today many of the runners are coming from the all-weather.
Trainer only seems moderately confident but I feel she's worth a small bet.
1pt win @ 10/1 (Coral)

Makzeem was also well held last time but needed the run and experience, missing the break badly and that was that. He was backed from 14's into 5/1 before settling at 7/1 despite his trainer's poor record first-time-out with 3yo debutants. Takes on a few from top yards here so needs to improve quickly but he should give us a run for our money and is worth a small ew bet.
0.5pts ew @ 18/1 (1/5 odds)

Kummiya is making his seasonal reappearance and his trainer says he'll need the run, which is why it's a bit baffling to see him being well backed this morning (8/1 into 11/2). Obviously the horse is well thought of but I can't back anything from this yard on their first run of the season at the moment as they are all needing the outing, so no bet.
I've actually traded a bit on this, backing at 13/2 and laying at 11/2 so have ended up with a lay @ 7/2 which I'm happy to stand - I guess I'm tempting the Law of Sod but if it wins then so be it, but this looks very competitive and Charlton says he'll need the run so laying 7/2 is value. Obviously not including this lay in the thread's profit/loss. I've also had a small ew double on the 2 bets today (190/1) but also not including in P&L.
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Quick March was given a bizarre ride, hauled back by her jockey as they jumped out of the stalls and never had a chance thereafter in a fast-run race. It'll be interesting to read what her trainer says about it.

Steadied start, held up in last and immediately well behind in strongly run race, shaken up 2f out, no progress and never in it

Makzeem ran just about how I expected, a respectable effort but just found a few too good from the top yards. He actually looked like finishing 3rd for a long way but just weakened out of the frame late on and finished 5th.

Kummiya, as expected, needed the run and dropped out to finish 13th. Will do better next time.

So all 4 bets so far unplaced but none were strong bets and 2 of them were a little unlucky not to hit the frame. He has 3 entered up on Thursday, one is an unraced 3yo so won't be touching that one, but the other two could be bets.
 
Just the one runner from Ed Dunlop's yard today

6.55 Chepstow - ZAUFFALY (6/4)
 
3 runners today from the Charlton yard...

Thursday 12th May
2.25 Salisbury - INTERMITTENT - 5/2 (3.65)
3.35 Salisbury - LEAPING - 66/1 (50.0)
7.55 Newmarket - BATTLEMENT - 7/4 (2.92)

Intermittent had a little break after having two races on the all weather in March. She broke her maiden at the 4th time of asking over 8.5f. Today she steps up to 1m 2f at Salisbury on softened ground. She will need to settle well, but her dam did win a listed race over the distance and is by Galileo.

Leaping has her first start in a maiden that on paper could easily be an Oaks Trial! She is a rangy filly and although by Oasis Dream and from a relatively soeedy family, she gives the impression of a stayer. She has a long stride.

Battlement won at Lingfield on the 4th April and has done well since her victory. She had a tricky draw that day, ended up not having cover and was just a little bit keen. She was green around the bend, but knuckled down well to win. The straighter course will suit her better and the Good To Firm ground will be to her liking. She will stay further than this in time.
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Intermittent was a beaten odds-on fav at Wolves two starts ago, but needed the run that day and got the job done next time at the same track. Now carrying topweight in a handicap, everything looks in place for a good run.

The main worry is the fact that his two races this year have not worked out at all - 14 other subsequent runs have resulted in 14 defeats, all unplaced. All of these, however, were well beaten by Intermittent, so it's probably not a massive negative.

The step up in trip will suit and she should go close but just a small bet as these 3yo handicaps often have a dark horse.

~~~~~~~~~~

2.25 Salisbury - INTERMITTENT - 1pt win @ 11/4 bog
 
Leaping is making her debut and is clearly a long term prospect, so no bet.
 
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Intermittent was, on paper, a really disappointing 4th, looking very onepaced, but she was the victim of a brainless ride and can be given another chance.

For some reason they decided to ditch the front-running tactics which served her so well when she won last time, and held her up...the problem was obvious from the start, as they went an absolute crawl and it was no surprise at all that the race was fought out by the two horses which raced from the front, with everything else floundering in behind unable to quicken.

Held up, ridden and steady progress from well over 2f out, went 4th over 1f out, stayed on but never any threat

Intermittent, making his handicap debut having got off the mark at the fourth attempt at Wolverhampton 49 days ago (8.5f), was expected to enjoy the step up in trip (dam 1m2f winner), but was laboured out the back before staying on. The race wasn´t run to suit and she deserves another chance. Her rider, Kieran Shoemark, reported that the filly ran too freely.
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Of course she ran too freely, you tried to strangle a front-runner out the back, you thick cunt :banghead


This is the second time this has happened lately (Quick March last week) so I'm hoping this isn't a yard who tends to over complicate things regarding tactics, otherwise it'll be getting ditched because it does my head in!


Battlement looks to have a decent chance in the 7.55 but it's another 3yo handicap so at current odds I'm going to leave it - if it wins at 7/4 then so be it.
 
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Going back to Thursday, the final runner (no bet) was Battlement and they once again messed up by being too desperate to hold the horse up. She moved really well throughout only for her to weaken inside the final furlong (accentuated by George Baker not trying for a place), she touched 1.37 win and 1.01 place.
It's a worry as the jockeys are clearly riding to instructions - the jockeys surely can't be this stupid (OH YES THEY CAN!!) - so I'll have to monitor it as we go.

2 runners today and two bets...

Saturday 14th May
2.45 Newbury - AYRAD - 7/1 (9.0)
4.30 Newbury - IMPERIAL AVIATOR - 10/3 (4.9)

Ayrad starts us off in the Al Rayyan Stakes over 1m 4f. It is a small but quality filed and most of the protagonists should act on the ground, which will be getting close to good by the time racing starts. Ayrad ran a taking race first time out for us when third in the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown over 1m 2f, which would be a couple of furlongs short of his best. Master Carpenter and Western Hymn both gave the form a solid look to it, when running well at Chester in a race that wasn’t run to suit them. Ayrad has been in fine form since and if there are any chinks in Eagle Top’s armour he will be ready to take advantage.

Imperial Aviator runs for the first time in the colours of Qatar Racing, who have bought a half share, and it is an honour to have them in the yard. Mr Hunt and Mrs Markham retain the other half, and have had a great time so far. Imperial Aviator took a few by surprise when he won a maiden at Leicester, beating Ulysses and the then 16-1 shot for the Derby Uae Prince. He beat them well, and he and Ulysses drew clear impressively. Ulysses bolted up in a maiden today at Newbury and is now 16-1 for the Derby himself. So the form has a solid look to it, and the flatter and more galloping track of Newbury will suit him more than Leicester. Tomorrow’s race is a different cup of tea to what he has competed against before and the roll of honour has some rather startling names on it Green Moon (Melbourne Cup), Al Kazeem (4x G1 winner), Cannock Chase (G1 winner) and not forgetting Time Test (G2 winner thus far). We have a good record in it, and I hope he has a good trip from stall 3 and goes well.
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Ayrad is up against an odds-on fav but I think EAGLE TOP might be beatable here, he needed his first outing last season and also raced keenly on occasions (a beaten odds-on fav in this grade) - there is no confirmed front-runner here so it looks sure to be tactical which won't suit the fav. Of course, this is a great chance for a horse to gain a huge advantage by setting their own pace, but no doubt Ayrad's connections will be too dumb to realise that. We shall see.

1pt win @ 7/1 bog

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Imperial Aviator will be very popular in this 3yo hcap as the horse he beat last time hacked up at Newbury yesterday. Well drawn on the inner in 3, it's hard to believe that they can mess up the tactics on this prominent runner and he can give his trainer his 3rd win from 3 runners in this race in the last 6 years.

2pts win @ 10/3 bog
 
Ayrad - 1pt win @ 7/1 bog 2nd 8/1
Imperial Aviator 2pts win @ 10/3 bog Won 7/2


Much better on Saturday, with a good 2nd followed by a runaway winner. Both horses were ridden well (sat in good early positions before being produced at the right time) - it's amazing how much better the horses run when you keep things simple instead of fannying around like George Baker and Kieran Shoemark have been doing, pulling their horses back and strangling them in slowly run races :thinking

Ayrad ran a great race to be 2nd, although admittedly it was a bit galling to see him beat both the odds-on fav as well as the well-backed 2nd fav, only to be trumped by the 14/1 outsider of 5 :duh Oh well, he ran well and was well ridden, so no complaints.

Imperial Aviator bolted up by 4.5l, turning a competitive handicap in to a procession. Again, he was well ridden, tracking the pace from his low draw before being asked to win the race, which he did in style. My only gripe was the price - he was top priced 10/3 in the morning yet was 4.9 on Betfair, so 7/2 really should have been available at the books. It shouldn't have mattered though with bog, as his price as they jumped off on Betfair was 5.5 so his SP really should have been 4/1 but presumably one of the big 3 had liabilities and used their on-course SP shortening trick to make sure he returned 7/2.

Finally in to a profit on this thread, although all bar the winner were small bets so wasn't worrying too much. My biggest worry was the way the horses were being ridden, and I actually dropped my original stake of 3pts to 2pts on Imperial because of this, but never mind.

5 runners today....
 
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3.45 Bright - PALING - 3/1 (4.2)
7.30 Winds - IRREVOCABLE - 16/1 (15.0)
7.40 Leic - SCAMPER - 20/1 (22.0)
8.10 Leic - CHESTER STREET - 7/4 (2.84)
8.40 Leic - BLAKENEY POINT - 7/2 (4.3)


Today Paling starts us off at Brighton in a competitive race for the course. He saw too much daylight last time at Doncaster and hopefully there is some improvment in him. The hood has been removed as we felt it slightly dented his speed last time. We have a good record at the track and we hope he can be bang there.

Scamper goes again at Leicester having run very green on ground that would have been a bit slow for her. Unfortuantely it appears she is in a very strong race. She should take a big step forward and will be aided by being drawn amongst them as opposed to on the outside like she was last time.

Chester Street ran a very taking race at Newmarket first time out this season. He led in what was a very good race and just got tired in the final furlong, whilst not been aided by the loss of a show in the dip. We think he is versatile between a mile and 10f, but this was the most suitable race for him at the time.

Blakeney Point stayed on well at Goodwood last time over 10f and has a step up in trip today. He didn't have the best of trips last time but stayed on well towards the line and just got tired in the final furlong. Kieron takes the ride again, and is able to use his valuable 5lbs claim.

Irrevocable makes her debuit at Windsor. She has taken her time to be ready for her debut but is in good form now. She will be inexperienced and won't be used to the turns that she will experience at the track but I hope she can show some encouragement for the future.
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Before I analyse the Charlton runners, Ed Dunlop is still in sparking form, the form of his runners sent off at 11/2 or shorter in the last fortnight reading...

611111237292111 (8/16 - 50%)

He has 4 runners today, the first three look worth a bet, doing doubles and a treble.

3.45 Bright - MICHAEL'S MOUNT - 3/1
4.55 Bright - BLUSHES - 7/2
5.05 Redc - ARCHIMENTO - 10/11
7.30 Winds - SNOW PIXIE - 7/1
 
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Paling - finished 3rd at Lingfield AW on seasonal and handicap debut, sent off as evens fav so clearly expected to do better but this was yet another Charlton runner who was held up off a very slow pace and understandably couldn't get competitive, especially as the 1m trip would have been too short.
He then stepped up to 1m2f at Doncaster (9/2) and finished a fair 4th, but once again he was keen early which probably blunted his finishing effort. It was a decent run and the form has been well franked with the 2nd and 3rd both winning handicaps next time out, so you can see why he's favourite today, but this is another small field event which is probably going to be run at a false pace, which is more than a worry than his form.

Hopefully he'll be allowed to race at his own pace rather than being strangled but I wouldn't bank on it. Charlton has a 50% strike rate here in recent years (3/6) and worth a small bet despite the pace worries.

1pt win @ 3/1 bog
 
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