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X FACTOR Betting

okey dokey

well i'm going for a curry tonight so won't see it till tomorrow. did any one see any live auditions and have an early idea of anyone to watch for?
 
first obvious contender on x-factor is Janet devlin @6.0 various. lots of air time, pictures of her home. likeable voice with the accent coming through. nervously affectated but not in so much as a irritating way than diane vickers. big negative is that she is a girl which sometimes i think alienates the core female vote of the programme. any way have a look. i'm sure gavster will have further comments - i'll also put up the other audition which is the internet leader at the moment when i can find one where the embed works.

<iframe width="853" height="510" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/RXucIL2ZV2g" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
Latest Prices..

Janet Devlin5/1Misha Bryan8/1The Keys12/1Melanie Mccabe16/1Craig Colton16/1Frankie Cocozza33/1Jolene Burns33/1Niall Sexton40/1Derry Mensah40/1Roger Boyd50/1Louigiano Paals50/1Jamie Bruce66/1Roxy Yarnold66/1Heshima Thompson66/1Kitty Brucknell66/1Megan Burke66/1Michelle Barrett80/1Ashford Campbell100/1Soso Status100/1Samantha Hallam100/1Joseph Castle100/1Johnny Robinson100/1Goldie Cheung200/1
 
I haven't seen any X-factor yet. I really need to join the race. I would think they'd save the 'plan A' auditionee until later on in the process, so they remain the freshest in minds of the viewers.

I have the weekend off this week, so I guess I'll go big into it. I tend to find that there's more money to be made by laying the novelty act against eviction in the first few weeks. Obviously, that continued rather longer with Jedward and Wagner. That said, there is a trend!

Anyone I need to look out for when I waste my Sunday looking through this filth?
 
The buzz for Jade Richards is a little crazy as she now challenges Janet Devlin for favouritism. I think she's got less appeal than Michelle McManus who was the first and last white girl to win a Simon Cowell show but she's got a typical sob story to gain the sympathy vote.

Luke Lucas looks like a mini-Michael McIntyre. He won't win and neither will any other males as Simon Cowell has proved time-and-time again that he doesn't know how to handle a male winner.

Can it really be Ireland (Janet Devlin) vs. Scotland (Jade Richards) already!? The black girl/white boy dominance of 'The X Factor' might finally be over if it is.

The Keys look likely to cruise the 'Groups' category as there hasn't been much opposition so far with the next quoted group being SoSo Status all the way back at 100/1.

Not sure what 'plan A' auditionees are left.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/tv/x-factor/winning-act

Ante-post odds for various contenders:

Janet Devlin 11/2 (Paddy Power)
Jade Richards 6/1 (Sky Bet/Sportingbet)
The Keys 12/1 (general)
Misha Bryan 14/1 (Coral)
Melanie McCabe 16/1 (Coral/Sportingbet)
Craig Colton 20/1 (Blue SQ/Sky Bet)
Luke Lucas 20/1 (Blue SQ/Coral/Sportingbet)
Frankie Cocozza 33/1 (general)
Jolene Burns 40/1 (Bet365/Boylesports/Stan James)
Kitty Brucknell 80/1 (Coral)
 
A review of the top 10 betting positions. Lets just say I doubt we've seen our winner yet.

Will add videos later.

1. Janet Devlin – 6.0
In two minds about this performer. There’s a dribble of Vanessa Paradis but also a large helping of marmite act Diana Vickers from season 5. I can’t help but wonder what look the producers would inflict upon this girl during the live shows. She seems far too dainty to make any significant challenge for the top spot. The only thing on her side is her nationality.


2. Jade Richards – 7.0
Remarkably, she’s one of the favourites, but I found her performance to be flat and half a note out of tune in places. Again, nationality helps where her over emotional tears will alienate her.


3. Lascel Woods – 11.0
There’s a clean and polished look about this kid and there’s no denying the quality of his performance. I found some aspects to be bland, whiney and lacking the power of a top performer. I can already see the judges fighting over who’ll get to compare this relative nobody to the likes of Prince and therefore, we should expect to hear ‘The Most Beautiful Girl in the World’ at some point.


4. Amelia Lily - 13.0
Pretty decent young singer, very telegenic and seems a genuinely nice girl. Strong performance and image. Could go very far. Plan A? Perhaps plan B. There's something missing for me though.


5. The Keys – 11.0
Interesting group here. They look quite disjointed and certainly don’t seem like the kind of guys to be harmonising on an X-Factor stage. Nevertheless, they put in a passable performance and they should make the finals. There will be the usual statements of originality and you’re just what this competition needs bollocks. To me they’re just an unusual group guys that seem rather manufactured and disingenuous.

 
6. Sami Brooks – 13.0
A Welsh act now. Those eyebrows were clearly pencilled as a practical joke in her sleep. She’s a cross between Kat Moon and Bo Selecta’s Mel B. Can this really be the current 5th favourite? Way over-hyped for what was an average shouty performance from a ten-a-penny pub singer.


7. Melanie McCabe – 15.0
Performance not shown as yet. Youtube shows a young Irish girl who sings a lot of Witney Houston. Seems quite average at this stage.


8. Crain Colton – 21.0
The white Paige Richardson and don’t see this guy making any further inroads.


9. Misha Bryan – 21.0
Sob sob sob sob story. Great voice, but nothing new and even did some Miss Frank ripping off. Bags of talent in this girl and I think a touch overpriced at 21.0. Will need a serious make over to lose the obvious connotations. I think it’s clear to see from the montage that she’s one of the main stories to continue. One to watch.


10. Luke Lucas – 26.0
Similar to Shaheen Jafargholi from BGT. Same song, but not as much impact. Could be lined up for tears at the judge’s houses.

 
nice reviews gav and can't argue much except that i don't think janet devlin will be as annoying as diane vickers and the irish voice inflection will i think be an asset for her as she doesn't come across as imitating anyone. given that she is the favourite and miles ahead in youtube hits you have to think she is a serious contender... time for that to change of course and i'll keep an eye on the hits (they were fairly accurate last year). a trend shows that the winner usually comes from the first 2 audition shows - dunno why...

twists and turns to come though. the alleged leaks from 'the judge' is worth a look
http://xfactor-updates.com/x-factor-2011-judges-houses-contestants/

and there has been speculation that there will be another manufactured group. if that's correct expect them to be hyped to the hilt.

if the judges's leaks are correct it looks like kitty brucknell (katie wassell) will be the tabloid hate figure and goldie cheung (wagner) will be the comedy relief.
 
ps i don't usually make speculative bets on this but i've put a cheeky tenner on this guy - 25.0


hardly any air time but if the leak is correct he's in the lives and i think he has the most distinctive voice out of the blokes even if he doesn't hit everything perfectly
 
lol i've just seen my default avatar. i'll have to get one now to remove that.

wtf why is my embed not working?
 
Use the little "film" icon just above where you type your message, Rob and simply paste in the video link. The rest is done automatically (I sorted it for you).
 
Rob44 said:
nice reviews gav and can't argue much except that i don't think janet devlin will be as annoying as diane vickers and the irish voice inflection will i think be an asset for her as she doesn't come across as imitating anyone. given that she is the favourite and miles ahead in youtube hits you have to think she is a serious contender... time for that to change of course and i'll keep an eye on the hits (they were fairly accurate last year). a trend shows that the winner usually comes from the first 2 audition shows - dunno why...

twists and turns to come though. the alleged leaks from 'the judge' is worth a look
http://xfactor-updates.com/x-factor-2011-judges-houses-contestants/

and there has been speculation that there will be another manufactured group. if that's correct expect them to be hyped to the hilt.

if the judges's leaks are correct it looks like kitty brucknell (katie wassell) will be the tabloid hate figure and goldie cheung (wagner) will be the comedy relief.
Click to expand...

Yeah I saw that website last night. I forgot it was in my short-cuts from last year. Do you want to open a new thread for 'Potential Finalists - Spoilers' and put all that stuff in there. I did spot Frankie Cocuzza in their Boys list - WTF? He's a fucking mong. He can't even say his name properly (if it is Italian).

edit: actually I'll do it now
 
Betting news and updated odds from William Hill: http://news.williamhill.com/en/a/th...he/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

Outright: 5/1 Janet Devlin; 6/1 Amelia Lily; 7/1 Jade Richards; 10/1 The Keys; 10/1 Marcus Collins; 12/1 Melanie McCabe; 12/1 John Wilding; 14/1 Craig Colton; 14/1 Frankie Cocozza; 14/1 Lascel Wood; 16/1 Misha Bryan; 16/1 Sami Brookes; 16/1 James Michael; 16/1 John Adams; 25/1 Jonjo Kerr; 33/1 Luke Lucas; 33/1 Sarah Watson; 33/1 Sophie Habibis; 33/1 Terry Winstanley; 40/1 BAR
 
i posted these comments over at sofabet but thought i'd put them up here also - they tended to agree with me over there. we should find out what's going on with the groups and the last female finalist over the next couple days also

Frankie Coccozza
this lad has limited vocal range but will appeal to the girls who i think are the highest voting demographic. on talent alone should come nowhere but with good management and song choice could do an olly murs. i don’t think he’ll get that far but i’ve taken a small stake @23.0
Craig Colton
good voice and just enough difference from everyone else to be distictive. should garner a few fans and go a few rounds. however i think he has limited appeal and will bow out a la paige richardson in mid table.
James Michael
has had limited air time so we don’t know how good he is. i like his laconic style and is the closest this year to matt cardle. but he’ll need to build up the most momentum with some decent air time in the next couple of weeks. he’ll appeal to the gals and he’s from the north west so gary will want him to do well. i’ve seen enough to take small stakes @26.0.
Marcus Collins
On air time looks the most talented but for some reason he’s not impressing me. his talent is not so far ahead of the others that i can see the female contingent voting for him ahead of franki and james. to make an impact he’s going to have to show the ability of joe mcelderry so i’m adopting a wait and see for him.
 
Janet Devlin
there’s no rags to riches story here – her journey has to be one of confidence although she appears to have this in spades in front of a net camera. the favourite so far and way ahead of anyone on internet hits. her voice can be quite mesmerising and the accent and inflection give it an air of originality. imo she is plan A. but not a shoe as 16 year olds have a propensity to be annoying. she hasn’t shown this so far but i fear the little girl lost act may wear thin. we’ll see…
Amelia Lily
Not much to say here. polished with good vocal skills. reminds me of Kelly Clarkson a little. this may be a negative though as she has no where to go in terms of growth so she’ll have to hit the ground running and never let up. also no rags to riches story here – nice middle class (but that didn’t harm matt cardle last year). i think she is plan B as i think the producers want a female winner.
Misha Bryan
Excellent vocals but i don’t see much originality, coming across exactly the same as a young aretha franklyn. also she displayed a little bit of ghetto chick attitude which will grate on the british public. if that cockiness keeps displaying itself she’ll be for an early bath.
now the unconfirmed and a bit of a hobson’s choice for the producers…
Melanie McCabe
Not much to go on but so far she comes across as a whitney houston imitator. clearly she can sing but i question her marketability. being irish she could drain some of JDs votes which the producers will not want if i’m right about plan A. too little to go on really. could be a contender i guess…
Jade Richards
Now here we have the classic rags to riches story (aww… don’t you just love the grandma story… not!). the problem is the more i watch JRs audition the less i’m impressed… its all over the place, and i question her ability to be consistent. however, at times she is very good and could improve massively with a vocal coach. the question here is do the producers want her? if JD (or AL) plan A will they risk a strongish scottish contestant with jai mcdowell fresh in the memory. if this girl goes tyhrough to the lives she will be a contender i think.
 
Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1245: As the hopefuls on the X Factor are whittled down to the final 32 acts the betting market is taking shape with Janet Devlin the general 7/2 favourite.

The Irish warbler impressed again at Boot Camp and is as short as 5/2 to win the show with a number of layers.

Joe Cox has been cut to 33/1 with bet365 after making it through to 'Judges Houses' but is still available at 66/1 in places.

Meanwhile, there has been a move for Rhythmix today who are now as short as 12/1 with Boylesports.

Paddy Power tweeted this morning: "lots of #xfactor money for Jade Richards (13/2) and Sammi Brookes (20/1) since the weekend. Janet Devlin still FAV at 13/5."

William Hill took their first four figure bet on this year’s show when a punter in a Dublin shop staked £1,000 on Devlin to win the coveted prize at 3/1.

Janet’s audition was on the first show and has been Hill’s favourite to win ever since, with Amelia Lily offered at 5/1 and Jade Richards 7/1.

“After boot camp last year, we saw a number of four figure bets for Matt Cardle, which propelled him to the top of the betting, where he stayed until he won the show,” said Hill’s spokesman Joe Crilly. “The omens certainly bode well for Janet.”
 
Finals on this weekend:

Best price (Betfair Price)
Janet Devlin 5.0 (4.7)
Amelia Lily 6.0 (5.7)
Frankie Cocozza 10 (8.8)
Misha Bryan 13 (11.5)
Sophie Habibis 13 (12.4)
Marcus Collins 15 (13.8)
James Michael 15 (17.2)
Craig Colton 17 (17.2)
Nu Vibe 17 (17.2)
The Risk 21 (20)
Sami Brookes 51 (44)
Kitty Brucknell 51 (46)
Jonjo Kerr 51 (52)
2 Shoes 51 (81)
Johnny Robinson 67 (57)
Rythmix 67 (90)

First Elimination betting:

Girlbands fare poorly in the X Factor and The Rythmix are 4.5 to go first. I can't say beyond doubt that any of the groups are safe this weekend however and feel that Betfreds offer that the next out will be a group is a good bet at 1.91. I also see Sami at 11.0 as a good bet and could well be first on, along with Sophie at 26 as the quiet ones could suffer.
 
Ok here are some thoughts on the x factor finalists. Probably repeating some of what i’ve already written. Any views welcome as an antidote to some of the crap posts you get on forums like digitalspy

Girls Category appears to be the strongest.

Janet Devlin
The current favourite and has been since the first audition show. Most of the winners have come from the first couple of audition shoes and she is clearly favoured by the producers, which can sometimes be the kiss of death. Have to expect her to get to the latter though. She has been given the journey of confidence but unlike Rebecca Ferguson I think she will succeed as her pre- xfactor youtube videos appear to demonstrate a knowing (if a little shy) self confidence. Also being Irish she can rely on a bloc nationalist vote (maybe from the Eire too). Negatives are that the voice while good may irritate some people, she gets compared to Diane Vickers a lot, the little girl lost act may wear thin and there is a question of versatility.

Amelia Lily
Is a little girl with a big voice who immediately reminded me of Kelly Clarkson. She is a much more polished performer than JD and appears to be rapidly catching up in popularity. Also she is not as quirky as JD and therefore may appeal more widely to the general public. Her back-story is the ‘supportive dad who always believed in her’ (in other words a HD). Much speculation that she may be a shock early exit like Lucie Jones.

Misha Bryan
The solitary black girl in the girl category. Again a good voice although she came across as an Aretha Franklin imitator to me. At first she was displaying a bit of ghetto girl attitude at her audition, which would have been the kiss of death for her, but this has been noticeably toned down and she is coming across as much more likeable. It’s been suggested that she will be a mid table loser like the ‘Rachels’ but I think she might be a little bit more interesting than that.

Sophie Habibis
Was the surprise qualifier of this group going in ahead of the much hyped Jade and the internet favourite Melanie McCabe. She’s not a bad singer (but the weakest of the 4 imo) but you have to question where her support will be coming from with very little air time and no obvious back story. I think she will be the first of the girls to be voted off. She’ll have to do something pretty special early to build any sort of momentum.

The lads category appears to be the next strongest

Frankie Cocozza
Surprise surprise Robbie Williams likes this guy who has been portrayed as a lovable, womanising cheeky chappie, a sort of Olly Murs on steroids. Clearly FC is a favourite of the producers with a staggering amount of air time, even though he is an average singer at best. But wait there’s more as the hype seems to be working. Already FC has more twitter followers than any other contestant and is 2nd only to JD on youtube hits. I’m not sure he has enough broad appeal to win it but i expect he is a certainty for the later stages.

Craig Colton
The best singer in the boy’s category but without the popstar looks. In fact he gurned so much in his audition that i thought my plasma screen would crack. However by judges houses he’d toned that down and came across very well. No doubt he will get some fans but it’s hard not to think that he will be this year’s (white) Paige Richardson. One to keep an eye on though.

James Michael
JM has hardly any air time. His brief audition clip suggested he would be very good but clips since then have been less than impressive. At judges house he said he was a guitarist and couldn’t get used to not having it so i’m expecting him to appear ‘tooled up’ in the first show. He could be a surprise package and certainly his good looks are up there with past winners, so should appeal to the female voters. but like Sophie in the girls he’s going to have to hit the ground running to build up a fan base.

Marcus Collins
A hairdresser who gave a fairly polished audition but has been quiet until the judges house audition. He comes across as the gay male friend women like to have and is always happy and cheery. Some think he’s this year’s Joe Mcelderry but I’m not seeing it myself. Maybe a dark horse?

The groups have been a nightmare with no less than 3 manufactured bands being put through and one of those was given a last minute reshuffle!

Nu Vibe
For me these are the most likely to progress the furthest out of the groups, consisting of 5 ethnically mixed eye candy for the tweenies. In the clips so far they seem to have bonded the best of the made up groups, and appear to be able to do interesting arrangements with a sense of humour. Everyone will be reminded of one direction but I think it’s possible they may have more range. The producers keep concentrating on the scouser with the naughty past – lol talk about promoting stereotypes.

2 Shoes
Two fat girls from Essex with dollops of make-up and acting like they want part on ‘the only way...’ – but they can sing a bit. Apart from that though they will only progress if the public buy into the essex thing and i’m not so sure they are as infectious as they think they are. The secret weapon is the blond is pregnant. They could get a cult following and progress some distance but i don’t expect them to reach the top 4.

The Risk
The Risk didn’t seem to be bonding and although gary barlow praised their boot camp performance for me it was pretty awful, and again at judges house their performance was of a poor standard for that stage. I was expecting them to be the FYD of this year but at the last minute the lead singer of the keys was switched over – he’s a better singer than all the others put together. I still don’t expect this lot to get far. They look a bit older than nu-vibe and therefore have missed the target demographic.

Rhythmix
The manufactured girl 4some consists of 3 reasonable looking girls and a chinless wonder that looks so out of place that she unerringly and unwillingly draws the eye. As talented as any of the previous girl bands i.e. not very, they seem as usual to be at risk of a very early bath.

The overs are the usual hodge podge of wannabes and never-were’s.
Jonjo Kerr
Is a soldier who can put across an ok version of ‘Handbags and Gladrags’ but is prone to forgetting his lines and his cues. I can’t help but feel the khaki vote will be pretty thin as he is in no way a war hero. Cannon fodder (pun intended) – quite literally as i expect once he’s gone he’s going on the first plane to Afghanistan.

Kitty Brucknell
She is being set up as the act we like to hate with increasingly bizarre behaviour like jumping in the pool after a audition or a costume which lights up. Hard to tell how much of this is an act as she comes across as having a pretty severe personality disorder. Perhaps not quite as hated as Katie Waissel but I suspect she will end up in the bottom 2 regularly. She can sing better than KW though so the judges will not think twice of using her to get rid of competition for the ‘chosen one’ if the opportunity comes up.

Johnny Robinson
An ex-drag queen who sings like a girl and is the campest thing on 2 legs. He could be being set up as the Wagner for this year now that Goldie Yeung has withdrawn. I can’t see him having the same entertainment value though and will probably leave quite early.

Sami Brookes
The replacement for GY is pretty average and can only really benefit from the fat girl vote as she doesn’t compare to well to the other girls (musically i mean). I think the producers are thinking she may be a bit of a rags to riches Mary Byrne character, but Mary only really got as far as she did with the strong irish vote. Hard to see where SB’s support is coming from.
 
The twist out in the tabloids today is that each mentor will have to get rid of an act and that there is NO public vote which if true, should render the first elimination market 'void'.

If it's 'first act announced as eliminated' then it's easily manipulated by the producers so be careful what the rules are. Most go by 'first act eliminated due to public vote' though.

First Elimination Odds:

Rhythmix 10/3 (Stan James)
Kitty Brucknell 6/1 (Boylesports)
2 Shoes 8/1 (Betfred/Coral)
Sami Brookes 10/1 (Boylesports)
Johnny Robinson 10/1 (Betfred/Boylesports)
Jonjo Kerr 12/1 (Boylesports/Stan James)
Nu Vibe 12/1 (general)
The Risk 16/1 (Betfred)
James Michael 20/1 (general)
Craig Colton 25/1 (general)
Sophie Habibis 25/1 (Betfred)
Misha Bryan 33/1 (Betfred/Boylesports/Paddy Power)
Marcus Collins 40/1(Betfred/Paddy Power)
Frankie Cocozza 66/1 (general)
Amelia Lily 100/1 (general)
Janet Devlin 125/1 (Boylesports/Paddy Power)

Yesterday's afternoon Bettingzone Market News:

1630: Misha Bryan has been backed to win The X Factor today.

Coral are in from 11/1 to 9/1 today having offered 16s just a week ago. They report a couple of four-figure bets on the soulful Manchester singer.

Victor Chandler and Boylesports have also made similar moves today.

"Misha has been the most consistently backed act of the week, and we now have a six-figure payout if she goes on to win," said Coral spokesman Gary Burton.

Long-time favourite Janet Devlin has been pushed out from 5/2 to 3/1 by the Barking-based firm, while Sportingbet are out to a standout 4/1.
 
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