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X FACTOR Betting

Stan James have a set of 'Big Twist Special' markets out in reaction:

First Boy Eliminated: (Mentor: Gary Barlow)

James Michael 6/4
Craig Colton 7/4
Marcus Collins 7/2
Frankie Cocozza 6/1

First Girl Eliminated (Mentor: Kelly Rowland)

Sophie Habibis EVS
Misha Bryan 7/4
Amelia Lily 5/1
Janet Devlin 10/1

FIrst Group Eliminated (Mentor: Tulisa 'You can't spell her surname can you, ITV!?' Contostavlos)

2 Shoes 7/4
Rhythmix 2/1
Nu Vibe 7/2
The Risk 9/2

First Overs Eliminated: (Mentor: Useless eejit Louis Walsh)

Sami Brookes 6/4
Jonjo Kerr 11/4
Kitty Brucknell 11/4
Johnny Robinson 7/2

Looks like absolute carnage on the cards for the bookies and absolute glee for those in the know who are set to make a killing this weekend if it really is 'Mentor's Choice' as to who goes.
 
first thought would be to maybe dutch 2 in each section. it'll take some consideration and i'd like to see the performance first but the ones that come to mind are:

Boys:
James Michael/Marcus Collins
JM has had hardly any air time so it may have already been decided he is the sacrificial lamb. MC is the contestant most like Joe Mcelderry so I doubt the producers will want a repeat of a win like him and may take the opportunity to ditch the gay hairdresser at an early stage. Whatever happens it WON'T be Frankie Coccozza!

Girls:
Sophie Habibis/Amelia Lily
The girls are so good it would be easy for the judges to be able to justify any elimination and therefore assuming Janet Devlin is Plan A this seems like a perfect opportunity to get rid of her closest rival Amelia Lily. However like JM in the boys SH has had very little screentime and may have already been singled out to be sacrificed. The amount of investment there has been in JD suggests there's no chance she will be going however she performs.

Groups
The Risk/Rhythmix
The Risk were cobbled toegether at the last moment and have not performed together up till now so this has the potential to be a train wreck. also they don't have the advantage of youthful looks like nu vibe and it's been suggested they are a boyband too many. girl bands always struggle in the early stages and these are not coming across as anything special, however it's been suggested that the porducers may want them around just see if Frankie Coccozza can get any more tattoos on his arse!

Overs:
Sami Brookes/Jonjo Kerr
JK is an average singer who misses his cues and forgets his lines. its been suggested that the patriotic/khaki vote will keep him in if it was down to the public but i'm not buying that as the guy is no war hero and the judges won't be taking that into consideration either. Sami Brookes seems the most obvious choice to go as she was a last minute replacement for goldie cheung. but at the same time you have to think that there has to be something in Louis' group capable of progressing to the second half of the series? It definitely WON'T be Kitty Brucknell eliminated.

Although running order should not be a factor with the judges decision the show on Saturday overlaps with Strictly so it so any potential controversial eliminations might perform early to minimise any backlash due to the lower viewing figures and conversely the producers will probably want the acts they want to go furthest exposed to the largest viewing audience. Also song choices shouldn't be as important either but it may be easier to justify eliminations if a bland song causes the potential eliminee to underperform. so as in normal public vote weeks i think its best to see what happens before committing your lucre.
 
here are my pre-live show bets some of which have already crashed and burned. obviously these prices are no longer available but i still think there's a little value at some of the present prices and at least at this stage they have qualified.

Janet Devlin 5pts @7.0
Frankie Coccozza 1pt @34.0
James Michael 2pts @26.0
2shoes 0.4pts @101.0
NuVibe 2pts @17.0
Sophie Habibis 1pt @14.0

Clearly some of these are lay if there's an opportunity later in the show. these next ones were definite lays but didn't get through :shit

Goldie Cheung 0.6pts @201.0 (really dissappointed with the withdrawal as was anticipating wagneresque profits)
The Keys 1pt @17.0 (lead singer ended up in the Risk)
Terry Winstanley 1pt @51.0 (my most stupid bet this year... so far)
Stefan Romer 0.1pt EW @201.0 (absorbed into nu-vibe)

Xfactor 2011 profit so far: - 2.8 pts
 
Wouldn't disagree that Frankie Cocozza,.Janet Devlin and Kitty Brucknell appear to be among the 'chosen ones' to last as long as possible. I don't think Amelia Lily is going anywhere fast though. Lord knows what group Tulisa wants to win though.

Louis Walsh is most likely to pull a 'WTF!?' moment out although Kelly Rowland not picking Jade Richards (she wouldn't have won though) and Gary Barlow not picking Joe Cox (too much of a rival for Frankie?) shows 'lapses of judgement'.

None of the 16 left look like world-beaters. To me, it's 'damage limitation' and a year akin to when Leon Jackson won. We're going to see some absolutely shocking results this year just to keep it interesting.

Digital Spy have given a go in predicting the exact finishing order:

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s103...actor-final-16-reality-bites-predictions.html

1. Amelia Lily
2. Marcus Collins
3. Janet Devlin
4. The Risk
5. Frankie Cocozza
6. 2 Shoes
7. Kitty Brucknell
8. Craig Colton
9. Misha Bryan
10. Johnny Robinson
11. Jonjo Kerr
12. Nu Vibe
13. James Michael
14. Sophie Habibis
15. Sami Brookes
16. Rhythmix
 
I'll go with the usual tactic of focusing on the elimination markets in the early weeks, but for now pre-show I have taken a largeish bet on Amelia, medium on Marcus and very small backs of Craig and Sophie.

Long term, Amelia to me fits the type of winner they might be after - a voice and look to do well in the current pop market as well as one that could translate to success in the States. Short term she has perhaps the best voice in the contest (subjective view) and I've got doubts about how well market leaders like Janet and Frankie will do on stage.
 
hi beanie almost completely agree with your analysis and i'm ready to jump ship should the JD and FC bandwagon look like derailing and can deffo see AL winning which is why I think they may take the opportunity tonight to get rid.

The one in your list though that I'm not getting is the Marcus Collins thing. he's so generic as to be completely unmarketable imo and the producers i think will pull out all the stops to dump him even if he survives tonight. please explain the appeal - i need to know to avoid losing heaps of cash :help
 
Am I alone in thinking that this week is their deliberate opportunity get rid of regional diaspora?
 
that would mean getting rid of JD and I think they've spent too much investment in her to be lost so cheaply... are you thinking of anyone else Gav?
 
I've been well out of X-Factor this year and have only just dipped my toes in, so to speak.

Janet Devlin annoyed me within 20 seconds of the video starting. Talented? Yes. But nearly every American female folk singer was doing that several years ago. I just feel the audience will grow tired of that baby voice even before Mickey does.

I have to agree with Beanie in saying that Amelia is the complete package. She looks and sounds like a star, and on the outset, seems the most versatile. Her success depends on how's she's typecast. Please don't let her become PINK! I'll let them off tonight, as Who Knew is a great song.

I would suggest that one of the male groups will go tomorrow, rather than the Rythmix, as the producers would have more control over their plan A group that way. Rythmix will probably be toast in week 2.

I doubt Louis willlet Johnny go tomorrow either. They'll needs the mental vote to generate publicity.

ROB: There's a few scousers, so I guess they'll try and get rid of Craig or James. If they feel Marcus isn't plan A, or plan B for that matter, perhaps they'll lose him at the first hurdle to ensure a female victory. I'm hoping James gets dropped, he sounds like Jamie Carragher singing during an post match interview.

My bets to date:

4pts on 2-Shoes. Top group @ 6.0
2pts on Amelia to win outright @ 5.5
 
Updated elimination odds with best odds where available:

First Boy Eliminated:

James Michael 1/6 (Boylesports/Ladbrokes)
Marcus Collins 8/1 (general)
Craig Colton 18/1 (Bet365)
Frankie Cocozza 20/1 (Boylesports)

First Girl Eliminated:

Sophie Habibis 4/6 (Boylesports/Ladbrokes)
Amelia Lily 13/8 (Paddy Power/William Hill)
Misha Bryan 25/1 (Bet365)
Janet Devlin 33/1 (Bet365)

FIrst Group Eliminated:

2 Shoes 2/5 (Betfred)
Nu Vibe 9/2 (Boylesports)
Rhythmix 10/1 (Bet365/Ladbrokes)
The Risk 28/1 (Bet365)

First Overs Eliminated:

Jonjo Kerr 1/5 (Betfred/Ladbrokes)
Johnny Robinson 17/2 (Bet365)
Kitty Brucknell 14/1 (Boylesports)
Sami Brookes 20/1 (Betfred/Boylesports)

If it really is Amelia Lily going which isn't impossible, my hat goes off to Rob for going for it.
 
Gavster said:
9. Misha Bryan – 21.0
Sob sob sob sob story. Great voice, but nothing new and even did some Miss Frank ripping off. Bags of talent in this girl and I think a touch overpriced at 21.0. Will need a serious make over to lose the obvious connotations. I think it’s clear to see from the montage that she’s one of the main stories to continue. One to watch.
Click to expand...

I think this happens every year. I dismiss my early favorite yet again only for her to wipe the floor with the competition last night. :banghead

This girl is streets ahead of the rest. Note to Cher Lloyd: that's how you fucking rap :rant
 
The money keeps 'piling' on Amelia Lily to go and she's as low as 'evens' at Betfred/Sky Bet but Sophie Habibis is still odds-on (5/6 at Bet365).

One of their odds will collapse before the show as surely the producers know who Kelly Rowland will get rid of.
 
Sophie Habibis: Worst price 4/6 - Paddy Power, Best price 'evens' - Bet365/Boylesports
Amelia Lily: Worst price 9/10 - Sportingbet, Best price 6/5 - Ladbrokes.

This is a helluva ramp or a well-informed gamble on Amelia Lily to be gone first. I will be stunned if it happens. It's a statement of intent as Rob suggested that Janet Devlin and now Misha Bryan are Kelly Rowland's chosen ones though.

Elsewhere, 2 Shoes looks doomed but Nu Vibe have been bet on. James Michael is huge odds-on but Marcus Collins has been bet on to go. Jonjo Kerr looks doomed but Johnny Robinson and Sami Brookes have been nibbled at.
 
Jonjo Kerr, James Michael, 2 Shoes and Amelia Lily are all gone
 
stereoman said:
This is a helluva ramp or a well-informed gamble on Amelia Lily to be gone first. I will be stunned if it happens. It's a statement of intent as Rob suggested that Janet Devlin and now Misha Bryan are Kelly Rowland's chosen ones though.
Click to expand...

yep JD is deffo plan A - see how she was given the pimp slot even though previously the girls had opened each round!! Amelia Lily was getting good feedback on the forums and was ahead of Janet in the digitalspy poll and just behind her in the other polls (i think Amelia might have been Plan A if this was America) so she was becoming threat. to be fair though JD was miles better even taking into consideration her style which obviously divides commentators.

although JD is Plan A i don't think the producers are that bothered if she wins as long as she gets to the top 3 - for that reason i don't think they will try so hard to get rid of Misha (stole the show imo) who now must be second favourite. in fact a Misha v Janet final maybe the ideal they are looking for?

not sure i made any money on amelia going though as i only put on 2 pts and i lost two of my back/lay selections - so probably still in deficit this year at the moment. :ohwell
 
Great shout there Rob :) Amelia was pretty poor - obv not at all helped by the dreadful song choice and even worse eye make up. Far from wanting to shape her as a potential winner, it looked to me like the knives were out early.

Re: Marcus - it was simply a week 1 back as I thought his voice sounded solid enough to offer up a decent performance to offer a short term trade. As it was Moves Like Jagger is an absolute nightmare to sing, and he offered very little in the way of performance anyway. Not having many song spoilers was an absolute pain this week - there were some very odd choices - and some very 'safe' ones elsewhere.

Back to square one but atleast something concrete to play on now, will be on for some proper chat during the week.
 
early thoughts for the next elimination.

I think Janet Devlin, The Risk, Mischa B, Frankie and Craig are all as safe as houses as they have either producer protection or an early fan base to see them through this week's elimination. I also see these as mainly being in contention for the top 5 places.

Kitty Brucknell also has producer protection so even if she is bottom this week she will be saved - even if she is joined in the bottom 2 by her freaky partney Johnny. she will not be threatening the top 5 though and will be jettisoned as soon as she's served her purpose.

Sophie Habibis and Marcus Collins are also probably safe this week although they may be vulnerable if they are given a poor running order and song. for the long term they will have to start getting decent songs and pimp slots to threaten the top 5 but I wouldn't rule it out. if the producers could get rid of one or both early doors they would be seen as 'shock' eliminations and generate some column space for the show.

Rhythmix, Nu Vibe, Johnny Robinson and Sami Brookes are all surplus to requirements and are likely to go in the early stages - it's really about predicting when? Nu Vibe, as one boy band too many look the most vulnerable at the moment.

Running order is absolutely crucial this week because of the Strictly overrun. I'd look for someone in the first half hour with a bland song either first or just before an ad break. If you are looking for a very early big shock i'd be focussing on Marcus 21.0 @ Stan James.

hopefully there will be some song leaks to help us further.
 
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