Discussion in 'Betting Talk' started by BettingArea, Oct 8, 2011.
I feel an LMC ODM moment coming on.
We'll see what happens in future games for both,if Warta are under performing and Kolejarz are over performing away from home.
So if you win, it's by your genius and if the bookies win it's because of luck? Now where have I heard that before?
I really can't catch my breath.
Mmmmm, I like that idea. Spain have won 7 out of 7 of their Euro qualifiers and, assuming they "should statistically lose soon" we should all be piling on Scotland at about 16/1 on Tuesday.
Don't forget you heard it here first folks.
First off all, thank you for your opinion
You understood wrong my words, it happened only in this match, not always as you wrote, I watched this match in "Live Commentary" and thanks that I can put my opinion about it. I can tell you that Kolejarz's win was unfair because Warta has a lot of easy situations for at least 1 goal but one day you can score almost everything and one day you can try but miss and miss.
About your second post... yes, we call it "propability", you can't win all the time. With every next win your chances to extend you run are lower and lower.
Of course I'm not a genius, nobody is... I played football and I know how is to be a player. Teams lose because of form, the style of playing/tactics and luck. In Warta - Kolejarz match was bad luck but another time it could be my bad feelings and finally - prediction which I didn't expect.
David you say your an ex footballer,whats your surname?
I don't want to put it anywhere, my career wasn't good because of injuries, financial problems in my former clubs etc...
Batty springs to mind for more than one reason.
OK, let's back to my picks...
London City 2-1 TFC Academy +10,55units
London showed great performance and thanked their supporters for a whole season. It was their best position in the last 5 years in Canadian Soccer League.
Good stuff,David clap
Is it "Batty" in the west indian terminology you meant slick?
I never thought of that , thats even more reasons than i oiginally intended.
to be fair Batty was used here 'up North' for a different meaning well b4 the windies nicked it.
for instance, Yorkies fcuking Batty.
Yorkie is Batty, got yeah
York Region Shooters 1-0 SC Toronto +6units
Another win from Canada.
Well done BA
Re the coments by BA and Onedunme on the spain scotland game,the interesting/ironical thing is that if you if you beleive that there are a significant no of people who agree with BAs"logic",then you should bet on spain as their price is the more likely to be value(due to the weight of BA thinkers money going on scotland),and if you beleive that the overwhelming majority agree with Onedunme that a record of 7 from 7 should not be bet against,then you should bet on scotland as their price would be the more likely to be value.
Alternatively,if you are confused bet on 1-1
So if I toss a coin and it lands on heads ten times in a row, is it
is more likely to land on tails the next time I toss it?
@ONEDUMME, I didn't invent that, it's probability theory so you should agree with that.
Let's see... we have match between Spain - Scotland, let's give for both teams equal chances, so
And Spain won... then > we have the second match and this time chances for Spain are 1/9. With every Spain's win and every round their chances are lower. It's simple. It's the only math. I can't disagree with that.
Did you play in european roulette in casino ? In every round the chances for example - on red color are lower.
Now I'll quite freely admit to not knowing a thing about probability theory, so what I'm about to say could be a load of rubbish (according to that theory, although it makes more sense to me than that theory), but here goes:
Isn't the possibility of any combination of results in two successive matches (i.e. according to your example, Spain/Spain, Spain/Draw, Spain/Scotland, Draw/Spain, etc.) 1/9? OK, so if Spain win the first match, as you say, the chances of them winning the 2nd match would be 1/9. However, the chances of it being a draw would also be 1/9, and so would the chances of a Scotland win. The only reason a second successive Spain win would have a 1/9 chance is because you've already done a large part of the "hard" work in getting the first 1/3 chance right.
For a coin toss, it doesn't matter that you've spun heads 5 times in a row, the chances of the 6th toss being heads are still 1/2. The chances of spinning 6 heads in a row may be 1/64 (I think ), but so are the odds of spinning 5 heads followed by a tail (or 4 heads followed by 2 tails, or alternately spinning heads and tails 3 times each, etc.).
You're right that a certain sequence can't continue forever, it presumably has to change eventually - however, there's no way of knowing when, and you could lose a hell of a lot of money in the mean time waiting for that change to occur.
And in any case, surely all of the above only applies to an event which is consistently the same time after time i.e. tossing a coin, spinning a roulette wheel, etc.? In a football match there are so many variables (opponents, injuries/suspensions, weather conditions, etc. etc.) to take into account as well that go far beyond questions of probability.