Discussion in 'Betting Talk' started by BettingArea, Oct 8, 2011.
22/10 Poland 2. Division
Wisla Plock - Pogon Szczecin
Pick: Pogon Szczecin (-0.25) @ 1.81 188Bet | HIGH STAKE 9 UNITS
Wisla is one of the worst teams in league. They can't play, only long crosses without idea, their style is boring, overall it's a young team with many unexperienced players who need a time to play on higher level, at the moment I think it's too early to play on such division. In squad are few missings which won't help them against propably the best team (on paper) in league.
Pogon had problems with takes a win on road but 2 round before they won in Katowice 2-0. They are one class better team, their counter attacks are very dangerous and fast, in last match they won at home with current leader Zawisza 1-0 and it seems they are in uptrend. Wisla is new promoted team who want to stay and defend against relegation. Pogon for the last few years has been trying to get to the 1st Division and it looks that in this season they have the biggest chance to reach it.
Line of handicap is really worth to take, it's value because oddsmakers suggest last results on road of Pogon which is wrong because doesn't show real difference between them.
23/10 Poland 1. Division
Legia Warsaw - Widzew Lodz
Pick: Legia Warsaw (-0.75) @ 1.86 SBOBET, 12Bet | HIGH STAKE 8 UNITS
Last time when Widzew collect any points with Legia was 6th April in 2001, and last time when won was 11 years ago. Legia won with Widzew in all 10 games. Legia at home balance 2-0-2, Widzew on road 1-3-1. For Legia balance isn't good because they are mostly focused on Europa League where won so far 2 games, the last few days ago in Romania with Rapid 1-0. Their form is really good, fans are getting better, in Legia's stadium is always great atmosphere and great supporters. Legia won last 3 league games with strong players and it seems they will extend very good run.
Widzew is bad form and downtrend. No one believe that Widzew will shock. They lost last 2 games where showed almost nothing. They have problems with creating opportunities and as I see now, they will play without few players in front.
Legia is big favourite, more than odds suggest and in my eyes fair line should be -1.0, not -0.75.
22/10 Denmark 1. Division
Lyngby - Aarhus
Pick: Aarhus (-0.25) @ 1.71 188Bet | MEDIUM STAKE 6 UNITS
As I read in local newspapers and blogs, everyone pick Lyngby to relegation. They sits on 11th place with only 7 points collected. Lately show bad understanding in defense and there are a lot of gaps. That's why in this season in every single match they lost at least 1 goal. Similar should be today. 2 key players out.
To Aarhus coming back to squad few key players which should be a boost for the team. They tied last 2 games in league with the leader Kopenhaga 1-1 on road and Odense 0-0 at home but missed few opportunities and could win. In last weeks they were able to win with 2nd in league Midtjylland 4-2 and 3rd Nordsjælland 1-0. So at the moment it looks like they are one of the best teams in league. Against poor side which is Lyngby are big favourites, people bet on clear away win but I prefer to bet with small draw cover thanks to this AH line.
Wisla Plock 0-0 Pogon Szczecin -4,5units
Lyngby 1-1 Aarhus -3units
23/10 Switzerland 2. Division
Aarau - Bruhl SG
Pick: Aarau (-1.75) @ 1.99 Victor Chandler | MEDIUM STAKE 5 UNITS
Guests only 2 points collected. They're amateurs, not profesional team that's why they are fighting against relegation. Today will play without captain/key centre defender De Freites and important midfielder Boehi.
Aarau after last defeat in league and also in Cup with Zurich 1-3 now should be concentrated to back to winning streak. Will play with all important players without any problem so if they play in good level should easily win with the worst team in league.
23/10 Germany 2. Division
St. Pauli - FSV Frankfurt
Pick: St. Pauli (-1.0) @ 1.73 SBOBET | HIGH STAKE 9 UNITS
Big difference of qualities, formations, current situation in squad, targets in league etc.
St. Pauli has 2 unavailable players who is easy to replace, so it's not important fact. After last defeat with Fortuna at home 1-3 will be for sure very ambitious today to forget about the past and focus about the future. Their style of playing is similar to Munchen 1860 which won with Frankfurt at home 4-0. Defense of Frankfurt latety with a lot of gaps, there is too much place for rivals. Also what I read FSV has many players out today and is really hard to believe they will be able to do something with St. Pauli.
23/10 - 24/10 Canada Soccer League Play Offs
Capital City - Serbian White Eagles
Pick: Serbian White Eagles (+0.5) @ 2.03 Pinnacle | MEDIUM STAKE 5 UNITS
Pick: Under 3 @ 1.88 SBOBET | MEDIUM STAKE 5 UNITS
It will be the only 1 match in Semi Final, the winner will play also 1 match in Final so all power will be put on this match. In regular season Capital won with Serbian W. E. in 2 games, on road 1-0 and at home 2-1. But if we look inside the statistics we can't say the Capital was better. At home Capital played with 1 man more because Serbian got a red card (they lead 1-0 since 35' minute), then Capital just minute before half time tied and in the last quarter scored for 2-1. What would be if Serbian didn't get a red card ? Propably result would be different. Propably Capital wouldn't has dominance. In playoffs Serbian won with Brampton (aggregate 8-0). They have I think the best defense in league and very dangerous frontline. The same has Capital - one of the best backlines and many scorers. In previous games with Impact (aggregate 3-2 for Capital) Capital had some problems with scoring. They created opportunities but couldn't finish. The same should be especially today as I think they won't have the same number of chances because of Serbian strong defense. Overall it will balanced game with not many situations, big concentration and I don't really see any reason to set those odds like that. Chances should be similar.
Toronto Croatia - York Region Shooters
Pick: York Region Shooters (+1) @ 2.08 Pinnacle | MEDIUM STAKE 5 UNITS
Pick: Under 3 @ 2.05 Pinnacle | MEDIUM STAKE 5 UNITS
Again bookies too much favour TC. In playoffs everything is possible so I don't suggest their position in regular season where TC took 2nd place while YRS was 8th. As I saw in quarter-final York Region won with the 1st in league SC Toronto (aggregate 4-4, after penalties 4-2). Many people said it was the most exciting match in this year. I think we shouldn't see to many goals here because of style of playing TC and I expect similar match like it was in July when TC won on road with YRS 1-0, scored a goal in 86' minute after corner. Both teams will play very concentrated and won't risk so much because the first goal may be crucial. I expect guests will play more defensively and TC won't have too much place to their occasions. In this match the draw is the most possible and extratime.
Aarau 1-0 Bruhl SG -5 units
St. Pauli 2-1 FSV Frankfurt Void
Legia Warsaw 2-0 Widzew Lodz +6,88units
Canadian Night -9,75units
About Serbian White Eagles who lost with Capital 0-5. It's hard to write something because it looks that I should be laughed. Honestly I didn't know that Serbian can give up in last 10 minutes of the match. 4 goals lost in 10 minutes. Unbelievable...
This weekend was in minus unfortunately but who's perfect ? Now the most important target is to forget about it and focus about the strategy, don't change that and soon should be profits again.
Sit back down, Onedunme
Can certainly sympathise, BettingArea, had a bad weekend myself. Any chance you could post up your overall record since the start of the thread though to see how you're doing overall, rather than just for each individual day?
Left only a week to the end of trial period. At the moment I'm still testing few tipsters who are interested to work with my service. Until November everything will be known.
I'm testing also few features like Competition "The BIggest profit in month" where the best tipster will get the access to my Closed Forum and I think about referral bonus "More people you invite and then they pay for subscription, cheaper you can get an access or you can even win some pounds". I think it should be really interesting. If you have other ideas then send me them to my inbox here.
I can sympathise with that.
25/10 Poland Cup
Polonia Bytom - Lech Poznan
Pick: Lech Poznan (-1.0) @ 1.92 SBOBET | Stake: 6 units
Polonia in previous season was in 1st division but due to financial problems and poor style of playing has been relegated. Since summer almost all key players left club, management must cut salaries for players and buy few cheaper. At the moment they are in the relegation zone in 2nd division and it looks the most important for them is to stay at this level. 3 days after this match they have very important match in league with the last in the table Gornik Polkowice at home and for sure their coach think about it more than about Lech. Few rotations are expected. In last league match they lost 0-4.
Lech after draw with Lechia 0-0 will arrive to Bytom with the same composition, it means the strongest. The cup for them in every year is important, for Bytom not at all. Lech has the next match 5 days after this so it shouldn't be worry for the coach his players will be tired.
Lech better in every part of formation, should dominate, Polonia will focus on counter attacks but as their defense is poor I expect 0-2 or 0-3 result.
Polonia Bytom 1-1 Lech Poznan -6units
Polonia played well in defense. Lech hadn't idea how to break them even their technique skills were on better level.
Germany 2. Division
Union Berlin - St. Pauli
Pick: Union Berlin or draw @ 1.53 BlueSquare | Stake: 8 units
Union good at home, there's always good atmosphere and special climate. Many players came back from suspensions and various injuries, at the moment the squad is completely ready for match. St. Pauli lately in not good form, some players are out who are important and on away should be really tough for them to collect 3 points. I think still possible is home's victory.
FT 0-2 | -8units
France 2. Division
Guingamp - Angers
Pick: Guingamp DNB @ 1.40 Victor Chandler, William Hill | Stake: 7 units
Guingamp at home really good, like in previous season in 3rd Division. In last 4 games had 3 wins and 1 draw with Amiens. They are favourites to win this match. Angers I think too many unavailable players (also 1 topscorer Charbonnier) to think about 3 points. A draw is max they can reach. Guingamp at home always dominate, they like to use positional attack against such rival like Angers.
FT 1-0 | +2,8units
France 2. Division
Chateauroux - Monaco
Pick: Chateauroux (AH 0) @ 1.57 5Dimes, SBOBET | Stake: 9 units
Guests without 7 players, important parts of the team and as they present lately poor football it won't be a good new. In last 4 without a win, in all season's record on road with balance 0-3-2 and nothing tells today will change anything. Home team uses an artificial grass on their ground, for sure it's an advantage, for every rival is hard to play there. Home balance 3-1-1. A draw is the worst result here for home team and the best for visitors.
FT 2-1 | +5,13units
Denmark 2. Division
Hobro - FC Hjorring
Pick: FC Hjorring or draw @ 1.70 Bwin, Stan James | Stake: 7 units
Hjorring so far in good form, lose on road with 2nd in the table Randers 0-1 should be a good result because it's not a ridicule. They sit on 7th place with road's balance 2-0-3 which mostly depends on their long trips but this time it won't be that. To Hobro is about 1,5 hour by bus so shouldn't be tired. Hobro sits on 11th place with home's balance 1-2-2. In last 6 games still without a win and it's bad to think they will break this bad run against being in form Hjorring. Both teams without any big problems with unavailables so we have here a nice value which we should take. On Hjorring DNB price 2.45 in Nordicbet.
FT 4-0 | -7units
France 1. Division
Montpellier - Nancy
Pick: Montpellier (AH -1) @ 2.08 Pinnacle | Stake: 7 units
For sure the only good tactics for Nancy will be defensive minded style and fast counter-attacks or looking for situations from free kicks and corners. Unavailable will be centre defender Luiz and it's blow for the team. Nancy at home uses an artificial grass and it gave them a win in previous match with Nice after Niculae's goal from the header. On road is really bad, balance 0-1-4 and goal's difference 3:8. Montpellier after defeat in Cup with Lorient 1-2 is looking for extend their good run in league after 2 wins with Dijon 5-3 and Caen 3-1. So far at home lost only once with PSG 0-3 but the things which happened on the field that day didn't show that difference. Home team has everything in front to win today with few goals margin.
FT 2-0 | +7,56units
Cedevita - Zagreb
Pick: Cedevita (AH -6,5 pts) @ 1.83 Paddypower | Stake: 10 units
Zagreb weak team in front, today without 2 best players of the team. Cedevita should easily win here. Line is very good, Bet365 few minutes ago change the line to -7,5pts.
FT 97-51 | +8,3units
Easy match to predict so I used max stake fo that.
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1. Division
Slavija - Zeljeznicar
Pick: Zeljeznicar @ 1.85 Unibet | Stake: 8 units
Home team worst in league, last position in the table. Slavija has financial problems and few key players out before kick-off. Against Zeljeznicar who fights for a title in this season and all players fit should have less chances for any points.
FT 1-5 | +6,8units
Portugal 1. Division
Feirense - Sporting Lisbon
Pick: Sporting Lisbon (AH -1) @ 1.80 Bet365 | Stake: 9 units
Feirense is new promoted team from 2nd division. In previous year they took 2nd position behind Gil Vicente who lost in previous round with Sporting 1-6 on road. Also Feirense played 4 days ago in Cup with Portimonense and lost 0-1. Around half of the team will be tired because as local fans say: "They are not ready to play so often". Althought the motivation will be high it can't be too enough. Sporting in amazing run with 9 wins in a row. They can't give up cause yesterday the biggest rivals FC Porto and Benfica won their matches. I hope they will play with max confidence because "on paper" they are far better team in few aspects like speed of playing, tactics and technique.
FT 0-2 | +7,2units