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Roger Charlton yard

Discussion in 'Horse Racing & Greyhound Tips' started by Seen, Apr 25, 2016.

  1. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,326
    I'm going to use this thread to follow Roger Charlton's runners this season, and hopefully find some winners.

    He's a good trainer to follow as he consistently sends out around 17% winners each season in all categories, be it on grass or AW, with 2yo's or older handicappers or over 5f or 2m.

    He also has a website which is not only regularly updated but also gives a good insight in to the chances of runners and also post-race comments. He is usually spot on with his insights and predictions - for example letting us know that the majority of his FTO runners at this time of year are not quite right in their coats and will need the run - unlike many other trainers who are over-confident of their runners.


    STATS (updated as we go)

    3yo first ever run (all 7%)
    since 2013...1/34 (3%)...4400692470096736122962830375029473


    last raced 130+ days ago (all 18%)
    2016...0/15 (0%)...235700367453004

    Odds-on shots 2010 onwards...(all 47/75 - 63%)
    handicaps...16/19 (84%)...1111111114111311141




    BETS (updated as we go)

    5 wins from 23 bets - 21.7% strike rate

    Running total
    34pts staked
    44.12pts returned

    profit +10.12 (+30% ROI)


    BANHAM - 0.5pts ew - unpl 20/1
    HUNTSMANS CLOSE - 0.5pt win - unpl 10/1
    QUICK MARCH - 1pt win - unpl 10/1
    MAKZEEM - 0.5pts ew - unpl 18/1
    INTERMITTENT - 1pt win - unpl 11/4
    AYRAD - 1pt win - 2nd 8/1
    IMPERIAL AVIATOR - 2pts win - Won 7/2
    PALING - 1pt win - Won 3/1
    SCAMPER - 0.5pts ew - unpl 20/1
    CHESTER STREET - 2pts win - 3rd 7/4
    BLAKENEY POINT - 2pts win - Won 3/1
    KUANTAN - 1pt win - unpl 9/1
    HIGH SHIELDS - 1pt win - 3rd 6/1
    HUNTSMANS CLOSE - 1pt win - 2nd 7/1
    DECORATED KNIGHT - 2pts win - Won 4/1
    PINA - 1pt win - unpl 12/1
    COUNTERBALANCE - 1pt win - 2nd 13/2

    DECORATED KNIGHT - 1.5pts win - 2nd 7/2
    IRREVOCABLE - 1.5pts win - unpl 9/2
    FINAL CHOICE - 3pts win - 2nd 15/8
    HIGH SHIELDS - 1.5pts win - Won 11/4
    IMPERIAL AVIATOR - 1pt win - unpl 7/1
    AYRAD - 1pt win - unpl 7/1
    HORRAH - 2pts win - unpl 7/2
    BATTLEMENT - 2pts win - Won 11/4
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2016
  2. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,326
    Monday 25th April
    6.00 Windsor - MAZKEEM - 15/2 (8.2)
    6.00 Windsor - KUANTAN - 10/1 (13.0)

    Both will probably run well here but no bet for me - he does get FTO 3yo winners but not many (7%) and has had just one winner from 32 runs since the start of 2013, and that one was sent off as the 1/9 favourite, so Mazkeem will probably be placed at best, although it's interesting he's been backed this morning from 14's and is currently shorter on Betfair than at Bet365.

    Most of Charlton's runners coming off a break have been needing the run this season (no winner from 8 runners) so you would think Kuantan will also be placed at best, especially if his trainer is correct that he ran to around 70 on his debut last year, as the favourite Wave Reviews ran to 80+.
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2016
  3. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,326
    Both ran as pretty much as expected - respectably but in need of the run/experience. Both will be of interest next time out. Both were well backed (Makzeem 14's into 5's then out to 7/1, and Kuantan 12's into 9/1).

    7thKuantan 9/1
    Chased leading quartet, shaken up well over 2f out, never able to close, weakened final furlong (op 11/1 tchd 12/1)
    10thMakzeem 7/1
    Started slowly, detached in last pair, urged along and modest progress halfway, no headway after (op 5/1)
    Last edited: May 1, 2016
  4. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,979
    Good luck Seen, i'll be looking in. I do tend to follow a lot of Charltons horses.

    Early season flat form is the toughest of the racing year for me. Not that i'm much cop any other time of the year lol
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    10,045
    I'm exactly the opposite Punter! April to July I'm virtually guaranteed to make a profit (what is it they say? Past performance is no guarantee of future performance?). I can't remember the last time I didn't make a decent profit in from April to June and the key is to do what Seen has just identified and that is young horses who have maybe ran green or not had the run of the race or who look like they are going to improve next time out. Of course that doesn't mean that they aren't up against something better the next time they run but if you get the right ones, there aren't many that wont pay off if you follow. If you have an aversion to backing horses at 6/4 and below then this is probably not the way to go for you but it most definitely suits me.

    By the way, when I say follow them three or four times, I'm not talking about some kind of Martingale increasing stakes type system. I just mean that I keep following them after they win their first race until I think the handicapper has got the measure of them.

    It's a bit of a shame this hasn't cropped up before because I don't want to after-event and mention the ones I've already won on in the last three weeks but I'll start a thread and name some names and, hopefully, you lot can add to the thread if you spot a young one that fits the bill.
    Punter likes this.
  6. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,326
    Another interesting stat from this yard.

    Odds-on shots 2010 onwards...(all 47/75 - 63%)
    handicaps...16/19 (84%)...1111111114111311141
    Punter likes this.
  7. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,326
    Tuesday 26th April
    3.55 Bath - BANHAM - 20/1 (24.0)
    4.00 Bath - DE AGUILAR - 11/1 (12.0)


    Banham makes his handicap debut here, he's looked short of pace in his 3 maiden runs so far so this extra 2f should suit along with the uphill finish. Charlton feels his OR is about right so he'll struggle to win if there's anything in the field ahead of their mark, but if there isn't then he could win - it's just impossible to tell with these early season 3yo handicaps.

    We know that Charlton's horses are improving for a run at the moment so I reckon he'll run a fair race here and is worth a small ew bet.

    De Aguilar runs in a 1m3f144y class 5 maiden and has an OR of 75 after five runs. Again, he's vunerable to anything improving but on the plus side he'll come on for his last run and if he gets the trip he'll be thereabouts. I think he'll run well but find one or two too good so no bet on this one for me.

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    4.30 Bath - BANHAM - 0.5pts ew @ 20/1 (1/5 odds)
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2016
  8. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,326
    Banham ran well, finishing 5th at 16/1. He traveled nicely throughout and came with a promising run on the outer (touched 4.3 in-running) but hung left under pressure over to the rail as the front pair quickened away. He might well have held 3rd place (and definitely would have finished 4th) had his jockey made any kind of effort to, but George Baker did his usual party trick of giving up completely once the chance of winning had gone. Fuck those each-way punters, eh George?

    Watching the race again, it's clear the winner was well ahead of it's OR of 64 (as you'd imagine a Stoute horse would be), but they didn't go very fast (they were well bunched up until the injection of pace 2f out) and it turned in to a sprint, which definitely wouldn't have suited Banham, who has looked to lack a turn of foot previously. I think he'll be ideally suited to a big field handicap where they go a decent clip, and is worth following. Might need a rail to his left though.

    I was right to swerve De Aguilar who was well held in 6th.
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2016
  9. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,326
    Wednesday 27th April
    4.30 Ascot - CAPTAIN CAT - 12/1 (15.0)
    4.30 Ascot - DECORATED HERO - 7/1 (8.8)
    5.05 Brighton - EXECUTOR - 5/2 (3.9)


    No bet for me today. Captain Cat doesn't look good enough and the ground is against him, while the other two are making their seasonal debuts, so will probably need the run like the majority of the yards runners have recently.
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2016
  10. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,326
    Again, the correct decision in not having a bet. All three ran as expected, Decorated Knight and Captain Cat ran just okay to finish 4th and 6th respectively while Executor was sent off as 5/2 joint fav and led for most of the race but weakened right out of it to finish 5th of 6 - although the distance beaten was exaggerated by George Baker once again giving up completely once the chance of winning had gone. Clearly needed the outing though and will be very interesting next time.

    Since starting this thread Charlton has had 7 runners and they've all finished unplaced (756465) which gives the impression the yard is not in good form, but that's not the case as none of these had a real chance of winning. The only one I bet was a small ew on a 20/1 shot which should have finished 3rd but for hanging/being eased.

    Charlton has no runners now until the weekend and all his entries there are having their first runs of the season so almost certainly no bets (unless trainer states they're flying at home!).
  11. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,326
    Didn't have time to post yesterday, Charlton had one runner but as I'd said previously, it wasn't a bet as it was making it's seaosnal debut.

    He reiterated the fact that his horses are needing their first run (and the reason why) so with that in mind, Balkeney Point ran an absolute cracker to finish 3rd at 10/1 (from 12's), especially as the winner nicked the race from the front. Definitely one to be on next time.

    Today he runs two at Newmarket. Like yesterday's runner they both are running for the first time this season.



    Chester Street is clearly one to leave alone today but he's quite positive about Huntsmans Close (says he's close to his racing weight from last year) so I'll be having a small bet. His first-time-out record reads 2612 and he was just touched off in this race on seasonal debut last year, and he clearly is at his best in these big-field handicaps.

    I personally think the horse will finish somewhere between 3rd and 6th but it's fine lines and I don't really want to miss out on a 10/1 winner, especially after the trainer has said it'll run well.


    3.00 Newmarket - HUNTSMANS CLOSE - 0.5pt win @ 10/1
  12. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,326
    Huntsmans Close could only finish 11th so presumably needed the run more than his trainer thought, although I feel the track bias was the main reason he couldn't get competitive - the stands side was the place to be all day (a strong crosswind meant those on the outer drawn low felt the brunt of it) and he tried to make headway but flattened out. He should be cherry ripe next time.

    Next entries are not until Friday, he's got 4 entered so hopefully one or two will be worth a bet.
    Last edited: May 1, 2016
  13. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,326
    Three runners today, I'll update later when I've had a good look at them. Will probably be backing two of them.

  14. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,326
    Wednesday 27th April
    2.30 Ling - QUICK MARCH - 10/1 (10.5)
    5.40 Nott - MAKZEEM - 18/1 (21.0)
    8.10 Ascot - KUMMIYA - 11/2 (6.4)


    Quick March will have needed the run last time and as a 2yo improved massively from her first run to her second, so I'm not too worried that she only finished 16th at Donny last time. As her trainer says, she drops in class today and is down 2lbs. The negative is that her maiden win hasn't really worked out so her OR is probably about right, these early season 3yo handicaps are a nightmare to evaluate, especially when like today many of the runners are coming from the all-weather.
    Trainer only seems moderately confident but I feel she's worth a small bet.

    ~~~~~~~~~~


    2.30 Ling - QUICK MARCH - 1pt win @ 10/1 (Coral)
  15. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,326
    Makzeem was also well held last time but needed the run and experience, missing the break badly and that was that. He was backed from 14's into 5/1 before settling at 7/1 despite his trainer's poor record first-time-out with 3yo debutants. Takes on a few from top yards here so needs to improve quickly but he should give us a run for our money and is worth a small ew bet.

    ~~~~~~~~~~


    5.40 Nott - MAKZEEM - 0.5pts ew @ 18/1 (1/5 odds)

  16. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,326
    Kummiya is making his seasonal reappearance and his trainer says he'll need the run, which is why it's a bit baffling to see him being well backed this morning (8/1 into 11/2). Obviously the horse is well thought of but I can't back anything from this yard on their first run of the season at the moment as they are all needing the outing, so no bet.

    I've actually traded a bit on this, backing at 13/2 and laying at 11/2 so have ended up with a lay @ 7/2 which I'm happy to stand - I guess I'm tempting the Law of Sod but if it wins then so be it, but this looks very competitive and Charlton says he'll need the run so laying 7/2 is value. Obviously not including this lay in the thread's profit/loss. I've also had a small ew double on the 2 bets today (190/1) but also not including in P&L.
    Last edited: May 6, 2016
  17. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    10,045
    I was looking for the "ones to watch" thread but after being unable to find it after a marathon search for 30 seconds I lost patience and decided to post this in here. Seen, could you have a look at the 420 race at Chester for me yesterday when you get a minute please? I watched it the first time and thought that Kalk Bay was full of running throughout the place and had been deliberately placed wide (possibly so that it would handle the tight track a little better). I thought it was set for a late charge but the others just didn't come back to it but, given the ground that it had given away and given the oddity of the Chester track, I thought it was worth looking at with a view to backing it next time. Turns out it's a 9 year old, up to its highest mark for 2 and half years (won't be put up for yesterday's race) and won its last race and placed in the previous one, so potentially may have a win or two more in it this season.

    The thing is, I watched the race again and could see why it didn't get much of a mention as it seemed a pretty ordinary run and it never threatened but what had struck me was that I thought it had travelled well and, had the race been run on a straight 7f instead of a greyhound track it may well have been flashing past the post with the leaders. On that basis, I thought it ran a better race than it's position suggested and may be in relatively decent form and, given that it hasn't gone off lower than 5/1 for a couple of years, may be worth consideration this summer.

    Just a final point - it won a Chester race last summer at about the same distance as yesterday when held up at rear and produced late. I have no idea whether that helps or hinders my viewpoint - I only know it gave a lot less ground away than yesterday.

    My question is, am I just seeing what I want to see in nothing but an old average horse, or is this going to bag one or two races at his level this summer at decent prices? Part of me says I'm deceiving myself but another knows that if I ignore it and it wins a big field sprint at York in the Summer at 33/1 , I would have to hang myself:lookaround
  18. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,326
    Okay mate, I've had a look at the race and of Kalk Bay's form. I did watch the race in real time yesterday and noted him traveling strongly on the outer throughout before flattening out inside the final furlong, like you say.

    The fact that he raced 3 wide all the way around (while the winner and runner-up were on the rail and one off it respectively) definitely didn't help (the first 6 winners yesterday were all drawn 4 or lower), but ultimately I think the 7f trip on that circular track was too sharp.

    If you look at his previous wins you can see that he's won at distances between 7f and 1m 2f, but all 3 of his 7f wins have been achieved at straight, galloping courses (Doncaster twice and Chepstow)...

    kalk 1.JPG

    ...which would explain why he couldn't quicken at the finish yesterday. I would say that he needs returning to a straight track or stepping up in trip.

    Below shows all of his runs over 7f, he's 0 from 12 going around a bend at this trip (see Hnd column far right)....

    kalk 2.JPG

    You said he won over around the same trip at Chester last year but that was over 112 yards further and considering that he only led 75 yards from the line suggests that that is the absolute minimum trip for him around a bend.

    So I think the horse is very much still in form and worth following on his next couple of starts. The only negative I have is that each season he seems to find his form and hold it for about 3 runs before his form tails off (he's had back-to-back wins 3 times now) so he's probably not a long term horse to follow. Hopefully he can get another win soon before he loses his form.
  19. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    10,045
    Thanks for that mate. It's not the long term I'm looking to follow it for, just a one-off 7f straight sprint in a big field at a decent price and then leave it alone. Even a place at a big price would make it worth the effort. The angle I'm looking at is that yesterday did nothing to suggest that the bit of form it's currently in is over whilst, at the same time, doing nothing to attract enough attention to damage a potential decent price.

    I'll stick it in my tracker and we'll see where it goes. If it goes out and wins again soon then I'll just delete it because it's not going to run at the sort of price I'm hoping for in the kind of race I'm hoping for.

    Thanks Seen
  20. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,326
    Yeah, somewhere like Doncaster would be ideal, hopefully he can be placed well.

    Ed Dunlop is in terrific form at the moment, his runners over the last fortnight which have started at 7/1 or shorter have finished...

    12117341162116151 (9/17 - 53%)

    and he runs 4 today...

    3.25 Ling - CAPRICIOUS CANTOR - 14/1
    3.50 Nott - ALQUBBAH - 9/2
    4.35 Ling - DUTCH UNCLE - 9/4
    5.05 Ling - TIBR - 11/4

    The first one doesn't qualify on the price but the other three might be worth a go in doubles and a treble. I took a chance and backed them last night in the hope the prices would shorten and they have (got 7/1, 3/1 and 10/3 respectively) so fingers crossed :crossfingers

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