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Roger Charlton yard

Discussion in 'Horse Racing & Greyhound Tips' started by Seen, Apr 25, 2016.

  1. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Good luck with them, especially as I've already backed two of them:lol. Got 3/1 on Dutch Uncle last night and backed Tibr this morning without the fav (which is one of my tracker horses so I couldn't go against it - just a bit of a saver bet).
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    I'm on something of a winning streak (due to end today no doubt) and got some cash to get rid of and so I've chucked up a couple of lucky 15s (one win, one ew) just to give the bookies a bit back bless 'em. I've put CC in the ew one and the 350 in the win one.

    My biggest bet of the day, 205 maiden wexford at prices between 7/4 and 6/4 - Evening Hush
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Two decent winners and a placed each way price. Good arrows:thumb
  4. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Hmmph...just gotten round to updating this thread, as ODM has said the Ed Dunlop trio I backed on Saturday resulted in 2 winners and a 3rd, a nice little profit there, a shame the other couldn't quite get there.

    Just seen that he's got 5 runners today and one of them has already run....it's no surprise really that the fucking thing has won without me being on it :grr (INNISCASTLE LAD 3/1) - it was the only horse he took to Brighton too.

    Anyway he has 4 more today, although only one of them is currently shorter than 7/1...

    5.50 Winds - CHARIOTEER (20/1)
    6.50 Winds - JUSTICE FIRST (11/1)
    7.50 Winds - BLUSHES (11/1)
    8.20 Winds - MICHAEL'S MOUNT (2/1)

    If one of the first 3 is well backed in to 7/1 or shorter I'll back them single and in a double with the last one, if not I'll leave the last one as 2/1 is a bit skinny for me and I've missed the boat as I would have had the Brighton winner in a double with it...it'll win now :lol

    His recent form with horses sent off at 7/1 or shorter now reads 121173411621161513111....12/21 - 57%
  5. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Catching up on the bets from Friday...

    Quick March was given a bizarre ride, hauled back by her jockey as they jumped out of the stalls and never had a chance thereafter in a fast-run race. It'll be interesting to read what her trainer says about it.

    Steadied start, held up in last and immediately well behind in strongly run race, shaken up 2f out, no progress and never in it

    Makzeem ran just about how I expected, a respectable effort but just found a few too good from the top yards. He actually looked like finishing 3rd for a long way but just weakened out of the frame late on and finished 5th.

    Kummiya, as expected, needed the run and dropped out to finish 13th. Will do better next time.

    So all 4 bets so far unplaced but none were strong bets and 2 of them were a little unlucky not to hit the frame. He has 3 entered up on Thursday, one is an unraced 3yo so won't be touching that one, but the other two could be bets.
  6. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Just the one runner from Ed Dunlop's yard today

    6.55 Chepstow - ZAUFFALY (6/4)
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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  8. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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  9. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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  10. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Hope it wins then, seeing as you're on it three times :thumb
    Punter likes this.
  11. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Bloody iPhone shit
  12. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    3 runners today from the Charlton yard...

    Thursday 12th May
    2.25 Salisbury - INTERMITTENT - 5/2 (3.65)
    3.35 Salisbury - LEAPING - 66/1 (50.0)
    7.55 Newmarket - BATTLEMENT - 7/4 (2.92)


  13. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Intermittent was a beaten odds-on fav at Wolves two starts ago, but needed the run that day and got the job done next time at the same track. Now carrying topweight in a handicap, everything looks in place for a good run.

    The main worry is the fact that his two races this year have not worked out at all - 14 other subsequent runs have resulted in 14 defeats, all unplaced. All of these, however, were well beaten by Intermittent, so it's probably not a massive negative.

    The step up in trip will suit and she should go close but just a small bet as these 3yo handicaps often have a dark horse.

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    2.25 Salisbury - INTERMITTENT - 1pt win @ 11/4 bog
  14. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Leaping is making her debut and is clearly a long term prospect, so no bet.
    Last edited: May 12, 2016
  15. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Intermittent was, on paper, a really disappointing 4th, looking very onepaced, but she was the victim of a brainless ride and can be given another chance.

    For some reason they decided to ditch the front-running tactics which served her so well when she won last time, and held her up...the problem was obvious from the start, as they went an absolute crawl and it was no surprise at all that the race was fought out by the two horses which raced from the front, with everything else floundering in behind unable to quicken.


    Of course she ran too freely, you tried to strangle a front-runner out the back, you thick cunt :banghead


    This is the second time this has happened lately (Quick March last week) so I'm hoping this isn't a yard who tends to over complicate things regarding tactics, otherwise it'll be getting ditched because it does my head in!


    Battlement looks to have a decent chance in the 7.55 but it's another 3yo handicap so at current odds I'm going to leave it - if it wins at 7/4 then so be it.
    Last edited: May 12, 2016
  16. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Going back to Thursday, the final runner (no bet) was Battlement and they once again messed up by being too desperate to hold the horse up. She moved really well throughout only for her to weaken inside the final furlong (accentuated by George Baker not trying for a place), she touched 1.37 win and 1.01 place.
    It's a worry as the jockeys are clearly riding to instructions - the jockeys surely can't be this stupid (OH YES THEY CAN!!) - so I'll have to monitor it as we go.

    2 runners today and two bets...

    Saturday 14th May
    2.45 Newbury - AYRAD - 7/1 (9.0)
    4.30 Newbury - IMPERIAL AVIATOR - 10/3 (4.9)

    Ayrad is up against an odds-on fav but I think EAGLE TOP might be beatable here, he needed his first outing last season and also raced keenly on occasions (a beaten odds-on fav in this grade) - there is no confirmed front-runner here so it looks sure to be tactical which won't suit the fav. Of course, this is a great chance for a horse to gain a huge advantage by setting their own pace, but no doubt Ayrad's connections will be too dumb to realise that. We shall see.

    1pt win @ 7/1 bog

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    Imperial Aviator will be very popular in this 3yo hcap as the horse he beat last time hacked up at Newbury yesterday. Well drawn on the inner in 3, it's hard to believe that they can mess up the tactics on this prominent runner and he can give his trainer his 3rd win from 3 runners in this race in the last 6 years.

    2pts win @ 10/3 bog
  17. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Ayrad - 1pt win @ 7/1 bog 2nd 8/1
    Imperial Aviator 2pts win @ 10/3 bog Won 7/2


    Much better on Saturday, with a good 2nd followed by a runaway winner. Both horses were ridden well (sat in good early positions before being produced at the right time) - it's amazing how much better the horses run when you keep things simple instead of fannying around like George Baker and Kieran Shoemark have been doing, pulling their horses back and strangling them in slowly run races :thinking

    Ayrad ran a great race to be 2nd, although admittedly it was a bit galling to see him beat both the odds-on fav as well as the well-backed 2nd fav, only to be trumped by the 14/1 outsider of 5 :duh Oh well, he ran well and was well ridden, so no complaints.

    Imperial Aviator bolted up by 4.5l, turning a competitive handicap in to a procession. Again, he was well ridden, tracking the pace from his low draw before being asked to win the race, which he did in style. My only gripe was the price - he was top priced 10/3 in the morning yet was 4.9 on Betfair, so 7/2 really should have been available at the books. It shouldn't have mattered though with bog, as his price as they jumped off on Betfair was 5.5 so his SP really should have been 4/1 but presumably one of the big 3 had liabilities and used their on-course SP shortening trick to make sure he returned 7/2.

    Finally in to a profit on this thread, although all bar the winner were small bets so wasn't worrying too much. My biggest worry was the way the horses were being ridden, and I actually dropped my original stake of 3pts to 2pts on Imperial because of this, but never mind.

    5 runners today....
    Last edited: May 16, 2016
  18. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    3.45 Bright - PALING - 3/1 (4.2)
    7.30 Winds - IRREVOCABLE - 16/1 (15.0)
    7.40 Leic - SCAMPER - 20/1 (22.0)
    8.10 Leic - CHESTER STREET - 7/4 (2.84)
    8.40 Leic - BLAKENEY POINT - 7/2 (4.3)



    Last edited: May 16, 2016
  19. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Before I analyse the Charlton runners, Ed Dunlop is still in sparking form, the form of his runners sent off at 11/2 or shorter in the last fortnight reading...

    611111237292111 (8/16 - 50%)

    He has 4 runners today, the first three look worth a bet, doing doubles and a treble.

    3.45 Bright - MICHAEL'S MOUNT - 3/1
    4.55 Bright - BLUSHES - 7/2
    5.05 Redc - ARCHIMENTO - 10/11
    7.30 Winds - SNOW PIXIE - 7/1
    Last edited: May 16, 2016
  20. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Paling - finished 3rd at Lingfield AW on seasonal and handicap debut, sent off as evens fav so clearly expected to do better but this was yet another Charlton runner who was held up off a very slow pace and understandably couldn't get competitive, especially as the 1m trip would have been too short.
    He then stepped up to 1m2f at Doncaster (9/2) and finished a fair 4th, but once again he was keen early which probably blunted his finishing effort. It was a decent run and the form has been well franked with the 2nd and 3rd both winning handicaps next time out, so you can see why he's favourite today, but this is another small field event which is probably going to be run at a false pace, which is more than a worry than his form.

    Hopefully he'll be allowed to race at his own pace rather than being strangled but I wouldn't bank on it. Charlton has a 50% strike rate here in recent years (3/6) and worth a small bet despite the pace worries.

    1pt win @ 3/1 bog