Quick March will have needed the run last time and as a 2yo improved massively from her first run to her second, so I'm not too worried that she only finished 16th at Donny last time. As her trainer says, she drops in class today and is down 2lbs. The negative is that her maiden win hasn't really worked out so her OR is probably about right, these early season 3yo handicaps are a nightmare to evaluate, especially when like today many of the runners are coming from the all-weather.
Trainer only seems moderately confident but I feel she's worth a small bet.
1pt win @ 10/1 (Coral)
Makzeem was also well held last time but needed the run and experience, missing the break badly and that was that. He was backed from 14's into 5/1 before settling at 7/1 despite his trainer's poor record first-time-out with 3yo debutants. Takes on a few from top yards here so needs to improve quickly but he should give us a run for our money and is worth a small ew bet.
0.5pts ew @ 18/1 (1/5 odds)
Kummiya is making his seasonal reappearance and his trainer says he'll need the run, which is why it's a bit baffling to see him being well backed this morning (8/1 into 11/2). Obviously the horse is well thought of but I can't back anything from this yard on their first run of the season at the moment as they are all needing the outing, so no bet.
I've actually traded a bit on this, backing at 13/2 and laying at 11/2 so have ended up with a lay @ 7/2 which I'm happy to stand - I guess I'm tempting the Law of Sod but if it wins then so be it, but this looks very competitive and Charlton says he'll need the run so laying 7/2 is value. Obviously not including this lay in the thread's profit/loss. I've also had a small ew double on the 2 bets today (190/1) but also not including in P&L.
Intermittent had a little break after having two races on the all weather in March. She broke her maiden at the 4th time of asking over 8.5f. Today she steps up to 1m 2f at Salisbury on softened ground. She will need to settle well, but her dam did win a listed race over the distance and is by Galileo.
Leaping has her first start in a maiden that on paper could easily be an Oaks Trial! She is a rangy filly and although by Oasis Dream and from a relatively soeedy family, she gives the impression of a stayer. She has a long stride.
Battlement won at Lingfield on the 4th April and has done well since her victory. She had a tricky draw that day, ended up not having cover and was just a little bit keen. She was green around the bend, but knuckled down well to win. The straighter course will suit her better and the Good To Firm ground will be to her liking. She will stay further than this in time.
Held up, ridden and steady progress from well over 2f out, went 4th over 1f out, stayed on but never any threat
Intermittent, making his handicap debut having got off the mark at the fourth attempt at Wolverhampton 49 days ago (8.5f), was expected to enjoy the step up in trip (dam 1m2f winner), but was laboured out the back before staying on. The race wasn´t run to suit and she deserves another chance. Her rider, Kieran Shoemark, reported that the filly ran too freely.
Ayrad starts us off in the Al Rayyan Stakes over 1m 4f. It is a small but quality filed and most of the protagonists should act on the ground, which will be getting close to good by the time racing starts. Ayrad ran a taking race first time out for us when third in the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown over 1m 2f, which would be a couple of furlongs short of his best. Master Carpenter and Western Hymn both gave the form a solid look to it, when running well at Chester in a race that wasn’t run to suit them. Ayrad has been in fine form since and if there are any chinks in Eagle Top’s armour he will be ready to take advantage.
Imperial Aviator runs for the first time in the colours of Qatar Racing, who have bought a half share, and it is an honour to have them in the yard. Mr Hunt and Mrs Markham retain the other half, and have had a great time so far. Imperial Aviator took a few by surprise when he won a maiden at Leicester, beating Ulysses and the then 16-1 shot for the Derby Uae Prince. He beat them well, and he and Ulysses drew clear impressively. Ulysses bolted up in a maiden today at Newbury and is now 16-1 for the Derby himself. So the form has a solid look to it, and the flatter and more galloping track of Newbury will suit him more than Leicester. Tomorrow’s race is a different cup of tea to what he has competed against before and the roll of honour has some rather startling names on it Green Moon (Melbourne Cup), Al Kazeem (4x G1 winner), Cannock Chase (G1 winner) and not forgetting Time Test (G2 winner thus far). We have a good record in it, and I hope he has a good trip from stall 3 and goes well.
Today Paling starts us off at Brighton in a competitive race for the course. He saw too much daylight last time at Doncaster and hopefully there is some improvment in him. The hood has been removed as we felt it slightly dented his speed last time. We have a good record at the track and we hope he can be bang there.
Scamper goes again at Leicester having run very green on ground that would have been a bit slow for her. Unfortuantely it appears she is in a very strong race. She should take a big step forward and will be aided by being drawn amongst them as opposed to on the outside like she was last time.
Chester Street ran a very taking race at Newmarket first time out this season. He led in what was a very good race and just got tired in the final furlong, whilst not been aided by the loss of a show in the dip. We think he is versatile between a mile and 10f, but this was the most suitable race for him at the time.
Blakeney Point stayed on well at Goodwood last time over 10f and has a step up in trip today. He didn't have the best of trips last time but stayed on well towards the line and just got tired in the final furlong. Kieron takes the ride again, and is able to use his valuable 5lbs claim.
Irrevocable makes her debuit at Windsor. She has taken her time to be ready for her debut but is in good form now. She will be inexperienced and won't be used to the turns that she will experience at the track but I hope she can show some encouragement for the future.