Roger Charlton yard

I was going to leave FINAL CHOICE alone at odds-on until I remembered the stats I posted at the start of this thread..

Odds-on shots 2010 onwards...(all 47/75 - 63%)
handicaps...16/19 (84%)...1111111114111311141

The 14-runner field was a worry for this horse who has been so unlucky on his last two starts, but 4 non-runners makes things a lot easier, even if it means his price has shortened. He Obviously acts on the track and ground and clearly stays the trip, so he really ought to win this off the same mark as last time.

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6.00 Bath - FINAL CHOICE - 3pts win @ 4/6 bog (Coral)

I'm going to leave BANHAM out, it's true that he ran his best race last time but I still wasn't convinced that he's a winner waiting to happen. He seems to lack the turn of foot needed to either win held up off a slow pace or to quicken off the front, and faced with another small field things are unlikely to be ideal for him again. This doesn't look the strongest of handicaps and he might win but I think I'll wait until he gets entered in a big field.

BLAKENEY POINT is worth a go, only beat one home at Musselburgh but as Charlton has said, there were several excuses. Had he not ran in Scotland he'd have been favourite for this, so although a bounceback is required, he looks a spot of value.

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7.30 Bath - BLAKENEY POINT - 1.5pts win @ 5/1 bog

FINAL CHOICE wins like an odds-on shot should.

No bet on the last two as George 'the spastic' Baker rides them.

BLAKENEY POINT ran okay to be 3rd considering he was held up in a race that was run at a crawl.

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3.25 Sandown - MATHS PRIZE - 6/1 (7.0)
4.00 Sandown - AYRAD - 6/4 (2.54)

I'm leaving MATHS PRIZE alone because it's first-time-out and has Baker on board.

AYRAD does look to have a good chance. He probably has only got GM HOPKINS to beat here as 3rd fav SPARK PLUG is the type who needs a big field and fast pace to produce his strong finish. There are no confirmed front-runners in the field today so the race almost certainly won't be run to suit him
DESSERTOFLIFE did run from the front last season but they've changed tactics and she's totally out of form. Has a bit to find anyway.
This is a perfect opportunity for AYRAD to make all, and if they do that he should win. However, his yard seem to be obsessed with holding horses up no matter what the pace is like, even if the horse is pulling and wants to go quicker they persevere, which is just bizarre for such a top yard to be so one-dimensional.

For example, look what Charlton says about this race above - "Ayrad runs in a trappy race where he may end up having to do his own work on the front end due to the fact Gm Hopkins and Spark Plug seem to be hold up horses over a mile normally" - he says that like it's a bad thing! If you have a horse who likes to race prominently (and doesn't need to be held up) and you find you've entered it in a race where an easy lead is presented to you on a plate, you should be rejoicing not bemoaning the fact that your chances of winning have just increased 5-fold.

How can he not know that if your jockey gets the fractions right in front then he's going to be incredibly hard to pass? I can't get my head around it and it'll be interesting to see how things pan out here. Even if the Johnson horse leads, I still fancy AYRAD to track her and win but I'll be seriously pissed off if the opportunity to lead is there but not taken and the horse doesn't win.

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4.00 Sand - AYRAD - 2pts win @ 6/4 bog

Well I hope George Baker was watching that perfect front-running ride from Atzeni - maybe the thick cunt will learn something

Led, set slow fractions, quickened when challenged 2 out, stayed on strongly. Amazing what you can do when you keep things simple

3.45 Sandown - TIME TEST - 11/2 (6.4)
3.45 Sandown - COUNTERMEASURE - 250/1 (1000.0)
4.20 Sandown - QUEST FOR MORE - 9/2 (5.7)

Leaving TIME TEST alone as they've had loads of rain at Sandown which has changed the going to soft, which won't suit.

Ground is also not ideal for QUEST FOR MORE but there's no evidence to say he won't handle it so worth a small bet. Ran a cracker on reappearance considering he'd had an abortive trip to Ireland.

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4.20 Sandown - QUEST FOR MORE - 1pt win @ 9/2 bog

TIME TEST didn't handle the ground as expected. QUEST FOR MORE has been withdrawn.

One runner today.

6.45 Kempton - ROCK STEADY - 11/4 (3.95)

This horse was given a brainless ride last time (oddly enough not by George Baker, but by William Twiston-Davies), held up out the back in a slowly-run race before staying on strongly to finish 3rd.

Steadied start, held up in last trio, lot to do once leaders kicked on over 3f out, reminders and progress 2f out, took 3rd final furlong, pushed along and nearly snatched 2nd

Would have won with a more intelligent ride and the winner has won since to frank the form. Will be fitter for that reappearance run and trainer says ground was a bit too soft too, so all positives so far...

Oh, George Baker is on board

There are a couple of front-runners here so hopefully there'll be a fair pace on, as there will need to be with Baker no doubt intent on trying his party trick of coming from last to first. I did say I'm not backing Baker again but this horse looks sure to go well and has already been well backed (5.5 into 3.6, now eased a bit to 3.95). No doubt I'll regret this

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ROCK STEADY - 2pts win @ 11/4 bog

Well I deserved that. Held up last, late headway to finish 4th, never put in the race.

What an absolutely appalling jockey that fucker is

9.00 Salisbury - PURE FANTASY - 9/4 (3.75)

2pts win @ 9/4 bog (she's 11/4 on betfair)