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Roger Charlton yard

Discussion in 'Horse Racing & Greyhound Tips' started by Seen, Apr 25, 2016.

  1. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    4 runners today...

    3.10 Epsom - DECORATED KNIGHT - 5/1 (6.4)
    7.30 Bath - BLUE SILK - 12/1 (19.0)
    8.50 Goodwood - IRREVOCABLE - 5/1 (6.8)
    9.00 Bath - FINAL CHOICE - 6/4 (2.76)

    Going to have a study of these, could well be a couple of bets today, especially as Baker isn't riding any of them :dance
  2. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    Here's Countermeasure's race, apologies for the quality (especially the sound) but filmed it on my camera from Bet365's video replay.

    Countermeasure is in the Abdulla silks (leads), the winner in pink with black stripes (runs in 2nd).

    Pay specific attention at 0.19 when Baker (turquoise sleeves, light brown cap) hauls Major Crispies back from a good early position in to about 8th despite the horse fighting him.

  3. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    The ground is obviously a slight worry for DECORATED KNIGHT, as he has a fast-ground action, but the going has eased at Epsom from GS soft in places to just GS, and he hasn't been withdrawn so presumably Charlton is happy the ground isn't too soft. He won on GS last year and when winning last time out at Goodwood the official going was Good but race times suggest it was GS.

    I think this will be tactical, with last years winner AROD the likely pacesetter (SEA OF FLAMES might put it up to him) but that wouldn't be a worry because a) DEC KNIGHT won off a slow pace last time, and b) George Baker doesn't ride.

    In fact, for me the ground is more of a worry for AROD than DEC KNIGHT, his best form has been on fast ground and he was a beaten fav on his reappearance on GS in a weaker race. Take AROD out and this looks a pretty weak Group 3.

    The ability to act on this idiosyncratic track is an unknown but if he handles it he should go well. Small to medium bet.

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    3.10 Epsom - DECORATED KNIGHT - 1.5pts win @ 5/1 bog
  4. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    Can't be backing BLUE SILK on her racecourse debut, but is one to follow afterwards however she runs.

    IRREVOCABLE looks to hold fair claims in the 8.50 at Goodwood. She ran an extremely encouraging race on her racecourse debut at Windsor when completely fluffing the start before running on really well to grab an unlikely 3rd. With a better break tonight she looks sure to go well. Has been well backed this morning on Betfair from 7.0 to 5.0 and I think the Stoute-trained favourite DELVE might be underpriced at evens as the form of the Newmarket maiden she finished 2nd in hasn't worked out yet.

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    8.50 Windsor - IRREVOCABLE - 2pts win @ 4/1 bog
  5. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    FINAL CHOICE also messed up the start last time on his handicap debut before staying on too late under the hapless Baker. That performance clearly showed that he can win off his lowly mark of 51 and he ought to run a big race tonight, especially if he can get away better.

    I wrote this after his last outing...

    He was heavily backed last time despite his trainer stating he'd need the run, so he looks sure to be very popular tonight. The early 6/4 is nearly all gone but it's still there at StanJames and SportingBet, although only the former offer bog. The only real worry is his slow starts, but this track offers plenty of opportunities to come from the back up the stiff finish so I think he'll be okay. Strong bet.

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    9.00 Bath - FINAL CHOICE - 3pts win @ 6/4 bog (StanJames)
  6. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    Not to be including in this thread's P&L, I've also done doubles and treble on the three in case I have a miracle and they all win!
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,239
    I haven't got time to go through all of that but scanned it and I like decorated knights chance at an ew price of 9/2

    I'll have the 900 one in a double with the fav in the 700 race
  8. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,239
    Fuck - went to back it and the fav has been pulled out of the 310
  9. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    Yeah, MINDUROWNBUSINESS is out as well, so a 40% rule 4 on my 5/1 bet, making it 3/1.

    Obviously without AROD the race has become easier to win, but on the downside the fact he's been pulled out suggests the ground is quite soft, which might not suit DEC KNIGHT.

    This is going to be tactical for sure, last time DEC KNIGHT traded at much bigger in-running simply because he was keen early, I think the same might happen again so I'll be trying to get a few more quid on after they jump at up to 20.0 on betfair :crossfingers
  10. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    Bah - another unlucky 2nd - went 160 in-running before hitting 1.21 only to be touched off by Tulius on the line :banghead
  11. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    Okay, so this turned out to be a pretty frustrating day :banghead

    After seeing yesterday's bet get caught right on the line it happened again, not once but twice :frown

    DECORATED KNIGHT ran a great race, coming late and fast down the outside to lead close home, only to be re-passed by the rallying Tulius in the very last stride. His jockey said he was unsuited to both the ground and the track, so it was a superb effort really.

    FINAL CHOICE was also very unlucky - once again he fluffed the start (went out to 10.0 immediately) but recovered well and came with what looked like being a winning run only to be caught inside the last 10 yards or so. The energy he used up catching the field up early doors clearly cost him the race, and if he could only start properly he'd be a handicap certainty.

    In between, IRREVOCABLE ran a dreadful race, she was a bit slowly away but this had nothing to do with her finishing last. She drifted ominously on Betfair out to 7.0 and she ran as if there was something amiss - her jockey never made any real effort when the pace quickened and eventually eased her down. He said after the race that she ran too freely but so did plenty of the others and their jockeys didn't give up 3f out. Worth another chance, especially if something comes to light.

    So 3 of the last 4 bets have finished 2nd, beaten a nose, a short head and a head, all after being in front 10 yards from the line :grr

    Frustrating but at least they're running well.
    Kegman likes this.
  12. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
  13. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    3.25 Muss - BLAKENEY POINT - 8/1 (9.8)

    Won so nicely last time I have to stick with him, even though this looks like a very competitive handicap. Charlton is clearly happy with him and should go well. This is his first ever runner at Musselburgh and the only horse he's sent to Scotland in the last 5 years won at 9/1 at Ayr. Still a bit shell-shocked from yesterday to be honest but hopefully this one can turn the luck around. Backing this each-way but I've got a feeling after those three recent win bets being beaten on the line this one will narrowly miss the places :ohwell

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    1.5pts ew @ 8/1 bog

    ....

    DE AGUILAR now a non-runner.
  14. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    BLAKENEY POINT ran really disappointingly on the face of things, finishing a well beaten 11th of 12. Things didn't really go his way though, his double-figure draw didn't help (first 4 home were drawn 1-4-7-3) and when he tried to start his run at the start of the straight he got forced wide and then met a bit of trouble, before being eased down. He wouldn't have won but would have finished closer.

    He never really seemed comfortable on either the track or the ground and with the pace being strong throughout, he was always being niggled. It'll be interesting to see what his trainer says but I doubt we'll see him on fast ground again.

    Really annoyed with myself on the staking - I got suckered in to backing it each way and therefore losing 3 points (which is the same as a maximum win bet) simply because of the bad luck I'd had with these over the last couple of days. Psychologically I'm thinking that backing it ew will ease the pain if it gets beaten on the line like the others, but really it should always have just been a small to medium win bet due to the fast ground and competitiveness of the race, so I've only got myself to blame on that.

    3 runners today, with 2 of them in France.

    1.50 Goodwood - HIGH SHIELDS - 11/4 (3/1)
    3.15 Chantilly - IMPERIAL AVIATOR - 15/2 (8.0)
    3.50 Chantilly - AYRAD - 6/1 (6.2)

    No news on his website today but this is from yesterday about his runners in France...

  15. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    HIGH SHIELDS ran 3rd last time when probably just in need of the race and he ought to go close today. Before his last run I wrote...

    ...and with the winner SHABEEB going on to hack up in a class 3 stakes race at Doncaster yesterday (running to OR100+) the form has been well and truly franked and she's worth a bet today.
    It won be plain sailing though - DESERT WAY ran a lovely first race at Newmarket and newcomer FRONTIERSMAN is extremely well bred and from a yard with a 27% strike rate with it's FTO 3yo's (and 3/7 in 2016 - 1323151).

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    1.5pts win @ 11/4 bog
  16. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    Will look at the French ones later but will probably be backing them both.
  17. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    HIGH SHIELDS wins easily to get the day off to a good start.

    3.15 Chantilly - IMPERIAL AVIATOR is up in class for this French Group 1 but his trainer seems to think he's got a fair chance. Charlton mentions his good low draw with many of his main rivals drawn high, but 5 of the last 6 winners of this were drawn 10 or higher, so I'm not sure how relevant that is. Worth sticking with and hopefully he can run well.

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    1pt win @ 7/1 bog
    Punter likes this.
  18. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    IMPERIAL AVIATOR dropped out tamely after being given every chance, perhaps the ground is too soft?

    AYRAD ran well when 2nd last time and is worth a small bet, although the ground is again a worry.

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    1pt win @ 7/1 Coral
  19. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,846
    Both the runners in France disappointed but that's the chance you take I guess.

    One runner today...

    6.00 Windsor - SILENT ECHO - 7/2 (4.8)

    Charlton's first 2yo runner of the season, some interesting comments from the trainer, which indicate that he'll need the experience tonight and he could well be a big market drifter in the lead up to the off if, as Charlton expects, the horse is green in the prelims. That might not stop him winning as he is clearly thought to have ability, but from this threads point of view he needs to be left alone tonight.

    Hopefully he can show promise without winning. Also, fuck knows how much effort George Baker will put in if the horse starts running green during the race. Hands and heels, anyone?

    Since 2010 Charlton has a 9.8% strike rate with his FTO 2yo's, and last season he had just one winner from 26 (3.8%).
  20. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    Leaving SILENT ECHO alone turned out to be the correct call. I didn't get to see any of the prelims but presumably he took them in his stride, as rather than the expected market drift, he was heavily backed in to 2/1, but during the race was a different matter as he was very keen and used up too much energy early on and dropped right out when the pressure was applied. Clearly thought to have ability, hopefully will be more clued up next time.

    One runner today...

    3.15 Salisbury - HORRAH - 7/2 (4.8)

    Charlton rarely has first time out winning 3yo's, so this one ran a race full of promise when 4th at Doncaster on debut in April. A sluggish start from a wide draw left him in a poor position early on but he made some excellent mid-race headway before staying on under hands and heels inside the final furlong once the winner had shot clear.

    He could quite easily have finished 2nd with a better start and that form now looks solid, with the winner FORGE going on to finish 3rd in Listed company, the 83-rated runner-up winning a fair maiden at Chester and the 4th running a good 2nd at Newbury before landing a Salisbury maiden. Even the well-held 7th won on his next start, and there's nothing at all wrong with the form of this race.

    Before his racecourse debut Charlton said...

    ...so we can presume a fair amount of improvement today in the way of both experience and fitness. The betting suggests he has two main rivals, DUBAI MISSION who has form figures of 223 and rated 78 which entitles him to be thereabouts but at the same time can be beaten, and MARBOOH who was green on debut at Kempton when 5th which was a decent first run, but he did have a good draw that day and I'm not sure what the form is worth as the first 5 home were covered by less than 2 lengths.

    HORRAH does look worth a bet today, no comment on the website yet so will update that later. The main negative is, as always, George Baker. He somehow finds himself ZERO from 13 when riding for Charlton this season, despite 10 of the 13 being sent off as one of the first 3 in the betting, and all but one of his rides being sent off at no bigger than 9/1.

    He needs to keep it simple because DUBAI MISSION will probably lead or at least race prominently and if he gives that one too much rope he will find it hard to peg him back. No doubt I'll be back after the race full of profanities aimed towards the hapless fucker :ohwell

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    3.15 Salisbury - 2pts win HORRAH @ 7/2 bog

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    KEEP IT SIMPLE GEORGE, YOU FUCKING CLOWN :crossfingers

    If, by chance, he googles his name before the race and this thread pops up (imagine :lol), then here's some advice, mate...

    IF HORRAH JUMPS OUT WELL, DON'T PULL HIM BACK
    IF HE PULLS A LITTLE, DON'T STRANGLE THE FUCKER
    DON'T TRY TO BE CLEVER BY TRYING TO COME FROM LAST TO FIRST, YOU'LL ONLY END UP LOOKING LIKE A CUNT
    DON'T ALLOW DUBAI MISSION TOO MUCH ROPE UP FRONT AS THAT WILL BE HANDING HIM A MASSIVE ADVANTAGE
    JUMP OUT, TRACK THE LEADERS, ASK FOR AN EFFORT, WIN THE RACE. SIMPLES
    :thumb
    Kegman likes this.