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Roger Charlton yard

Discussion in 'Horse Racing & Greyhound Tips' started by Seen, Apr 25, 2016.

  1. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    3.15 Salisbury - 2pts win HORRAH @ 7/2 bog

    HOORAH shortening up, Paddy Power the only bookie still going 7/2 (only 4.4 Betfair), they offer bog and also money back up to £25 if 2nd to SP fav.
  2. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Better late than never, Roger...

    Best price 5/2 now, being nicely backed. Come on George, I have every faith in you :thumb :lol
  3. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    :giveup

    ffs man! Backed like it couldn't get beat, yet George somehow managed it :wank
  4. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Yes, rather predictably the lanky streak of piss George Baker fucked it up yet again yesterday :ohwell Admittedly the horse did stumble coming out of the stalls, but it wasn't nearly as bad as the Racing Post are making out and probably cost the horse no more than a length or two. Stumbling at the start is a whole lot different to stumbling mid-race or late on when all momentum can be lost. Baker had every chance to ask the horse to recover and race in midfield but chose to bury the horse away at the back of the field and on to the rail, and the horse thereafter had no chance. He did well to even finish 5th.

    The problem with George Baker is that he is a totally one-dimensional jockey - his style is to drop them in, bury them in the pack and come with a late run to get up near the line. This is all well and good when it works, when they go a decent clip and then open up like the Red Sea so he can come storming through looking like Lester Piggott.

    But whenever something happens that wasn't part of the plan (like yesterday's early stumble), or when the early pace is funereal (like, often), then he just hasn't got a clue what to do and carries on with Plan A regardless - nearly always resulting in a defeat despite the horse being well fancied in the betting. That's the difference between a good jockey and an average one, the ability to think quickly and react to something unexpected, and Baker just can't seem to do this.

    Rant over (until next time, of course :lol)

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    2 runners today, although Charlton only bothers to mention one of them on his website...

    2.40 Haydock - FAIR EVA - 5/4 (2.3)
    8.00 Kempton - BATTLEMENT - 5/2 (3.6)

    Fair Eva is going to be very popular, being the daughter of Frankel, and she may well win, but I'm leaving her alone at that price. As Charlton says, he doesn't have the best record with his FTO runners, although I suspect he will have this one pretty fit today. She needs to be though, up against several with experience.

    Battlement isn't mentioned, which is strange, as she clearly has a decent chance tonight. These small-field early season 3yo handicaps are a nightmare to evaluate but the betting suggests the race might not take that much winning. It's very interesting to see Fran Berry booked to ride, even though he's stable jockey to Ralph Beckett who runs NASSUVIAN PEARL (which has been well backed this morning, incidentally).

    Battlement failed to handle the left hand turns at Lingfield and Wolves on her first two runs so this track will suit. The main problem is the probable lack of pace, which is what caused her defeat at Newmarket last time on handicap debut. Given a typical brainless ride by the hapless Baker, she was strangled at the back before making smooth headway but had used up too much energy wanting to run faster early on and flattened out to finish 4th.

    Afterwards I wrote this...

    Obviously the change of jockey is a good thing, and so probably is the drop to 7f - I can't see them making the same mistake as last time, especially over this trip, and surely to God they'll have her better positioned this time. Worth a medium bet but a bit worried about the pace angle. Jockey is in tremendous form (9/29 31% last 10 days, 9/20 45% when shorter than 12/1).

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    BATTLEMENT - 2pts win @ 5/2 bog
  5. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    BATTLEMENT wins @ 11/4

    As feared, they went a crawl early, and when BATTLEMENT started pulling for her head I feared the worst, but Fran Berry had the nous to allow his mount to race prominently, they were disputing 2nd place as they turned for home which meant that when the leader tried to kick on off the slow pace, they were perfectly positioned to challenge and win. Had the horse been dropped out in last place she'd have finished no better than 3rd or 4th.

    It's amazing what you can achieve by keeping things simple!
    Punter likes this.
  6. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    2 runners today, but the first one is making his racecourse debut and is ridden by Baker, so no thanks, and the other one is making her seasonal debut so leaving that one alone too.

  7. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,847
    One of Charlton's runners yesterday won nicely, the other finished 10th @ 9/2. It should come as no surprise that the one ridden by George Baker was the one which was well beaten. This takes his record for the yard this season to ZERO from 15, with 12 of those being in the first 3 in the betting. That's some achievement considering the good horses he's riding. He must just be unlucky, or something.

    Three runners today, I'll take a closer look later....

  8. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    4.10 Sand - BANHAM - 10/1 (10.5)
    7.20 Good - PALING - 3/1 (4.5)
    9.00 Good - QUICK MARCH - 12/1 (12.0)

    Banham ran quite well last time but was eventually well held after traveling nicely, hanging left and flattening out. He might do better today with the headgear and having been gelded, but I'm of the opinion that he's going to need a bigger field and strong pace, and he won't be wanting to hang left on this right-handed track either, so I'm leaving him alone today.
  9. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    They changed tactics on BANHAM and tried to make all, I think it was worth a go because he wasn't going to be suited to being held up in a slowly run race. It didn't work as he dropped away to finish 4th but he did okay. I hope he can be found an entry in a race with plenty of pace in as I think he can win at a nice price.

    I had intended on having a small bet on PALING but I was rushing about trying to do 10 things at once and missed the race :duh Saw the final couple of furlongs and it ran really well, looked like winning (went 1.2 in-running) but got collared by one which flew down the outer.

    QUICK MARCH was given a ridiculous ride last time by Baker and surely she'll do better tonight. Charlton says she is looking great so worth a small bet although she's the outsider of the whole field.

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    9.00 Goodwood - QUICK MARCH - 0.5pts win @ 12/1 bog Bet365
  10. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    2.10 Sand - CHESTER STREET - 5/1 (6.2)
    4.30 Sand - MAKZEEM - 4/1 (4.7)


    CHESTER STREET was undone by the slow pace last time over 1m and hopefully they'll go a bit quicker today. The extra furlong and stiff finish will suit and he should be thereabouts.
    He seems to lack instant acceleration so hopefully he'll be asked to race prominently (Baker doesn't ride so there's a chance) from his rail draw. He might well go a considerably bigger price in-running, something I'll be trying for.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~

    CHESTER STREET - 2pts win @ 5/1
  11. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    MAKZEEM ran 5th in a race which is working out well, although I don't know what Roger Charlton has been smoking if he thinks it's the best maiden we have seen this season. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th have all won since, but all in class 5 maidens, the winner was beaten in a handicap off 87 and the 7th was beaten in a handicap off 71. MAKZEEM is therefore rated somewhere in the late 70's, which certainly gives him a chance in this but by no means a good thing.

    Small bet.

    MAKZEEM - 1pt win @ 4/1 bog
  12. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,273
    Unlucky mate - traded at 1.1 in running
  13. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    Chester Street was well backed in to co-fav, he led and was given every chance but once the pressure was applied he dropped away weakly. Not sure where they are going to go with him, maybe he's another who is going to need a big field and strong pace.

    Makzeem ran much better, traveling strongly throughout and very much looking like the winner but just couldn't hold off the strong late challenge of the Stoute runner. As ODM has said, he traded as low as 1.1, so quite unlucky.
  14. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    rushed for time so no analysis...

    5.00 Ascot - HUNTSMANS CLOSE - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 bog PaddyPower (1/4 odds, 6 places)
  15. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    HUNTSMANS CLOSE never figured in the race at Ascot.

    One runner today...

    6.50 Windsor - ROCK STEADY - 8/1 (11.0)

    Not much confidence today on Betfair behind this one, which is unusual for a Charlton runner. Also the horse has a habit of hanging left which will be a problem here if, as in the first race, they stay stands side, so no bet.
  16. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847
    3.40 Newm - HORRAH - 3/1 (4.2)
    4.45 Newm - KUMMIYA - 8/1 (9.4)
    7.45 Newb - KUANTAN - 5/1 (6.6)


    ROCK STEADY ran a really nice race on Monday and is one to be on next time for sure.

    I was too busy to check Charlton's runners yesterday, he had two and one won at 20/1 and the other was an unlucky 2nd. I would have backed the loser and left the winner alone, so dodged a bullet there.

    Three runners today, I was on HORRAH last time only for it to stumble early on and then given a typically clueless ride by Baker. The horse should run better today in this weaker race but the fav has better form and this coupled with HORRAH being unproven on soft and the fact Baker retains the ride, I'll be leaving it alone today. If it wins it wins, but I just can't bring myself to back Baker anymore.

    KUMMIYA
    is very difficult to weigh up. Quite well fancied on hcap/seasonal debut last time in a hot race at Ascot but showed little. He's probably needed the run and is surely better than that, but he ran awful on soft ground last season and it sounds as if Charlton is desperate to get a run in to him and is running him despite the going, so an interesting runner but no bet.

    I was also on KUANTAN last time but after attracting a load of support he disgraced himself by hanging badly left inside the final 2 furlongs after traveling very strongly. I stated headgear was needed and they've stuck cheekpieces on which hopefully will help. He's drawn bang on the rail on this round mile which also can only be a positive.

    A mark of 69 could prove to be very lenient and Baker doesn't ride, so I think he's worth another go.

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    7.45 Newb - KUANTAN - 2pts win @ 5/1 bog
  17. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,273
    I was on it already Seen but I'll treble my stake on it now that I've read that. Young horse - first time in a handicap, first time with an official rating so, basically the handicapper is guessing how good it is and whether or not it can improve as it learns its lines. Opened at 6/1 and is now 5s with everyone so nothing to put potential backers off.

    Same comments apply to Roccor which I'm also on each way at 14/1.

    Wouldn't be surprised to see Blacklister leading at the business end and end up getting beaten - hopefully by one of mine:wink
  18. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,273
    "Three runners today, I was on HORRAH last time only for it to stumble early on and then given a typically clueless ride by Baker. The horse should run better today in this weaker race but the fav has better form and this coupled with HORRAH being unproven on soft and the fact Baker retains the ride, I'll be leaving it alone today. If it wins it wins, but I just can't bring myself to back Baker anymore."

    It wins
  19. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,847

    3.55 Wolves - DE AGUILAR - 14/1 (18.5)
    6.00 Wolves - PACIFIC SALT - 7/2 (4.6)


    De Aguilar hasn't shown much away from Wolverhampton but has ran well both times here (3rd and 2nd, both runs in maidens). He's been gelded since his last outing so might go well, but on the other hand might not. I was hoping to see confidence behind him on Betfair this morning but he's been weak (11.0 out to 19.0) which is usually a big negative for this yard. Small bet in case he wins at a nice price, might increase stake if late money comes.

    0.5pts win @ 16/1 bog Bet365

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    Pacific Salt ran really well last time on handicap debut over 1m in a first-time hood after showing very little in 3 runs over 6f in maidens. Hopefully the headgear can work again and he holds solid claims here.

    2pts win @ 7/2 bog
  20. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,847
    PACIFIC SALT 2nd :ohwell

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    5 runners today...

    6.00 Bath - FINAL CHOICE - 4/6 (1.71)
    6.30 Bath - BANHAM - 11/4 (3.85)
    7.30 Bath - BLAKENEY POINT - 5/1 (6.0)
    8.00 Bath - CLOUDBERRY - 5/1 (6.4)
    9.00 Bath - QUICK MARCH - 9/2 (5.4)


    Last edited: Jun 29, 2016