ODM's Pretty Young Things

[ONEDUNME]

Inspired by a post in Seen's Roger Charlton thread, I'm going to list a few young horses that... in fact, bugger it, I'll paste my response in that thread instead of trying to explain. I'm already well up with only 3 weeks of the flat season gone but I'll be very surprised if this thread doesn't highlight quite a few winners between now and August.

My post is below but feel free to add to this thread if you spot a promising 2, 3 or even lightly raced 4 year old flat horses during your punting.


April to July I'm virtually guaranteed to make a profit (what is it they say? Past performance is no guarantee of future performance?). I can't remember the last time I didn't make a decent profit in from April to June and the key is to do what Seen has just identified and that is young horses who have maybe ran green or not had the run of the race or who look like they are going to improve next time out. Of course that doesn't mean that they aren't up against something better the next time they run but if you get the right ones, there aren't many that wont pay off if you follow. If you have an aversion to backing horses at 6/4 and below then this is probably not the way to go for you but it most definitely suits me.

By the way, when I say follow them three or four times, I'm not talking about some kind of Martingale increasing stakes type system. I just mean that I keep following them after they win their first race until I think the handicapper has got the measure of them.

It's a bit of a shame this hasn't cropped up before because I don't want to after-event and mention the ones I've already won on in the last three weeks but I'll start a thread and name some names and, hopefully, you lot can add to the thread if you spot a young one that fits the bill.

 

[Steve_uk]

I'm sure we all wanted to read that twice. I'm reminded of an article I read recently about the Newmarket scene, but I won't paraphrase it unless pressed..

 

[ONEDUNME]

Good - don't

 

[Seen]

Is there anything more frustrating than opening a thread expecting it to be full of jail-bait pics only to find out it's about bloody horses?

CHANGE THE TITILLATING AND MISLEADING THREAD TITLE, ODM

 

[ONEDUNME]

The 510 at Lingfield tomorrow is as good a place to start as any. I prefer the turf to all weather but this would be a good race to include as it could possibly...

A/ Show the value of the experience of a few races under the belt against first time outs.

B/ Throw up an improver from the others.

One thing I haven't mentioned so far is that the weight of money in these races is often a pointer to their chances. A caveat to that is that certain trainers are renowned for their success with their 2/3 year olds and that fact will often be seized on blindly by some punters so there's a judgement to be made.

Tomorrow's race has six runners and the market is telling us that Kananee is expected to make a good debut being at the head of the market at 9/4 (based. if you read the Sporting Life write up) on its breeding. I'd guess that this is going to go off shorter than 9/4 and will be one to watch. However, that's not the one I'll be on. Decandent Times has three runs under it's belt and has been less than impressive truth be told. However, it's a front running horse with experience of the track and my hope is that it will set off in front and get a good enough start that the finish post will come before the rest of them (some of whom will turn out to be far better than this beast I have no doubt) have cottoned on to what the racing game is all about. Best price 11/4 at the moment. In a market with so much that is unknown, I'll be happy to take 5/4 or over without the favourite tomorrow if I can get it.

 

[ONEDUNME]

740 Wolves Hakam

Had two runs last year - two second places in 10 runner fields (one of them by a nose) when running green. Decent enough first time run this year being beaten out of a hat trick of seconds by a head. Currently 5/4 and I'd be happy to take that price (best odds guaranteed).

Madame Butterfly is 2nd favourite at 13/8 - understandably, given that it ran twice last year and was only beaten by two horses (albeit well beaten in one case) that are now 88 rated 4 year olds on the up but there's no doubt in my mind that Hakam will win a race before long.

 

[Seen]

Here's one that's worth a bet, lads....ROBANNE in the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday - has been backed in from 66/1 this morning in to 25/1 with most books, but Bet365 and Boylesports still go 33's.

This horse ran in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket a fortnight ago and ran an absolute cracker to finish 3rd. On that bare form she shouldn't be good enough to reverse form with the winner NATHRA, who beat her by 2.25 lengths and is the current 4th fav (10/1) for the big race on Sunday.

However there are reasons for upgrading the run of ROBANNE. Firstly, the race was run in driving rain with a strong wind blowing across the course. The first two home both raced stands side of the field and were sheltered from the conditions throughout the race, whereas ROBANNE was exposed to the wind and rain, held up at the back before switching to the outside to come with her strong late run.

She had no cover at any time in the race and that must have been a hindrance, so it was an incredible performance first time out to get so close to the front pair.

Secondly, while the winner will appreciate the extra furlong of the Guineas, so will ROBANNE, perhaps even more so, judging on her finishing effort here.

Thirdly, Newmarket is forecast to have bits of rain on just about every day up until Sunday so the ground is likely to be on the soft side of Good, which will be ideal for ROBANNE (won her maiden last year on soft).

MINDING is clearly the one to beat on Sunday, but it's been pointed out in the Racing Post that she might not be fully tuned up judged on her trainer's past runners...

Aidan O´Brien´s Group 1-winning juvenile fillies often turn up for the Guineas undercooked because they lack a prep race (both his winners took in a trial, as well as four of the five other fillies he´s had placed in the race) so she has a chance.

I think ROBANNE will out run her odds on Sunday and might well be half the price she is now come race time.

 

[Seen]

Agree with you on Decandent Times in the 5.10, ODM. Hasn't done a lot wrong in his 3 runs so far and if you watch his last run at Beverley he was rolling around on the track throughout the last 3 furlongs, trying to hang left despite his jockey trying to correct him with the whip. Returning to a left-handed track will eradicate that problem and I can see him railing like a greyhound and going mighty close.

He looks a dream bet from a trading point of view, will either make all or trade short and get pipped. Get your in-running lays in, ODM

 

[ONEDUNME]

List of horses of interest which I will update as we go.

Hardly a hidden gem and not really in keeping with the main point of this thread but I'm keeping an eye out for Orangey Red in Ireland. Has an Irish 1,000 guineas entry but may not turn out to be good enough and may well be a short price next time out but worth a look.

Tomily. This was the first one I put in my tracker this season after its first run at Kempton where it was slowly away, ran way wide on the turn and still made ground to finish second to one of Mick Channons (Stringybark Creek). Backed it next time out ew at 4/1 in an 8 runner race. Ended up 3rd at 3/1 so a small loss so far but I like this horse a lot.

That race highlighted a significant change to these kind of races compared to previous years as they've followed the jumps system and have introduced Novice races. In previous years, horses could only enter a maiden race if they'd never won a race previously. This year they have introduced Novice races which might increase the size of the fields and more opportunities for trainers to place their horses but could turn out to be a very bad thing for me as I've found that even a average young horse would usually be placed well enough to win a maiden in previous years. Anyway, I'm not knocking it yet as it hasn't been a problem yet.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Agree with you on Decandent Times in the 5.10, ODM. Hasn't done a lot wrong in his 3 runs so far and if you watch his last run at Beverley he was rolling around on the track throughout the last 3 furlongs, trying to hang left despite his jockey trying to correct him with the whip. Returning to a left-handed track will eradicate that problem and I can see him railing like a greyhound and going mighty close.

He looks a dream bet from a trading point of view, will either make all or trade short and get pipped. Get your in-running lays in, ODM

Exactly what I thought Seen. Unless one of the jocks can't hold on to their mount it's almost guaranteed to lead and go short in running.

 

[Punter]

Cheers fellas, i've taken your 3 mentioned and thrown one of my own in that i was going to take this weekend anyway.

5.10 Decandent Times @ SP - Win Single
7.40 Hakam @ SP - Win Single
1000 G' Robanne @ 33/1 E/W Single
2000 G' Buratino @ 12/1 E/W Single

Varied stakes + Yankee @ Boylesports

 

[ONEDUNME]

As I have no more runners to highlight at the moment, can I just mention a lightly raced 4 year old entered to run on Wednesday. One that I entered in my tracker after its first race in 2014 which has soared up the ratings to a hight that I don't usually bother with without every winning another race or making me a fucking penny. Just back from a 3rd place in Doha, I'll probably be on Moheet each way if all 8 turn out on Wednesday.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Moheet is the outsider of 8 tomorrow at 14/1.

 

[ONEDUNME]

I hesitated to put this up until I'd seen if there was any money for the horse in the race that cost 210.000 guineas (as advised by the Sporting Live website) but as it hasn't been hammered, I'm on Knight's Table in the 840 race at Wolves. This will be its fourth run and two of them have been at this track at this distance under the same jockey. As warned, the prices are generally not going to be spectacular and this is no exception at a measly 11/10.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Decadent Times lost - didn't see the race so will wait for Seen's feedback. Decided to play safe and went for the 6/5 without the fav but still a loser
Hakam - Ended up winning at 4/9 but was available at 5/4 this morning
Kings Table - taken 11/10 bog.......watch this space.


I'm not including Moheet in this record as I've only backed it on a whim as it's a remnant from a previous year.

 

[Seen]

I don't think Decadent Times was given a very good ride by Richard Kingscote, ODM. The horse jumped out well enough but his jockey seemed to restrain him in front and then tried to kick on as they hit the straight, but surely as all of his rivals were making their debuts he'd have been better off going as fast as he could to stretch them and take advantage of their inexperience.
As it was he got picked off quite easily by the favourite (who had been tracking him round throughout) and also got passed by the 2nd who looked all at sea early.

 

[ONEDUNME]

I know jack shit about horses in terms of how they look and how they move etc but watching them going down to the start, If you asked me which one was the most expensive horse in the field I'd have picked White Poppy.

 

[ONEDUNME]

I don't think Decadent Times was given a very good ride by Richard Kingscote, ODM. The horse jumped out well enough but his jockey seemed to restrain him in front and then tried to kick on as they hit the straight, but surely as all of his rivals were making their debuts he'd have been better off going as fast as he could to stretch them and take advantage of their inexperience.
As it was he got picked off quite easily by the favourite (who had been tracking him round throughout) and also got passed by the 2nd who looked all at sea early.

Mmmmm, thanks Seen. That aside he seems to be emptying out too often for my liking. I might give it a watch next time and take it off my list. I want to see these horses winning and wanting to go around again so that I know that they can give the handicapper a run for their money. Maybe it's just not cut out for the sprint and might perform better if it's stepped up to 6 and dropped in and settled. It's fine if a horse wants to be a front running but it's clear that it just can't hack it at the minimum distance.

 

[ONEDUNME]

I know jack shit about horses in terms of how they look and how they move etc but watching them going down to the start, If you asked me which one was the most expensive horse in the field I'd have picked White Poppy.

Not much I don't know about the way horses move



Went down the smoothest of the lot - came back the same way. Zanjabeel was a sack of shit but it is possible that the whole raceday experience gets to young horses the first time and we may not have seen it at it's best.

 

[ONEDUNME]

I'm adding White Poppy to my list. Great first run by Rebel Cause finishing 2nd at 20/1 but how much is down to how badly the front two in the market performed, I'm not sure.