Antepost accas 2013/14

[hotspur]

PADDY POWER

Leicester prom,Bees prom,Newport prom,Luton prom,Dundee win,Stranraer top 4,Peterhead win

Those selections will be in all the following bets(prices to come)


1)Cardiff 10-1 bottom £2

2)West Ham 12-1 bottom £1

3)WBA 25-1 bottom 50 p

4) Aston Villa 20-1* bottom 50p

5)Fulham 8-1 bottom £1

6) Man City to win Prem 10-11* £2



BANK £620



Prices in order 4-5,4-5,15-8,4-6,5-4,1-2,10-11


* Ooops-City should be Evens and Villa 25-1

 

[hotspur]

PADDY POWER

Leicester prom 4-5,Bees prom 4-5,Chelmsford prom 7-1,Luton win Evens,Dundee win

Evns,Dunfermline* win 1-2,Peterhead win 8-11,Metz win French Lge 2 8-11

£3

BANK £617


*from now on any reference to Dunfermline,Stranraer or Ayr means in the market wout Rangers

 

[hotspur]

PADDY POWER

Leicester prom 4-5,Bees prom 4-5,Chelmsford prom 7-1,Luton win Evens,Dundee win

Evns,Dunfermline* win 1-2,Peterhead win 8-11,Metz win French Lge 2 8-11

£3

BANK £617


*from now on any reference to Dunfermline,Stranraer or Ayr means in the market wout Rangers

Chelmsford?

Er,I think that should be Cheltenham.


Hey,theyre easily confused.



Ones full of right-wing Tory *****,





the others in Gloucestershire.






(Fucking lost at home to Mansfield anyway.)

 

[hotspur]

******* ********!!!

Was gonna do some more bets but theres a ******* 12pm ko.......and it involves Luton.......who are already well on the way to another thumping win!


******* 12 pm ko.


On ******* New Years Day


***** sake

 

[hotspur]

PADDY POWER

Leicester to win 6-4,Bees prom 4-11,Scunny prom 4-6,Luton win 8-11,Dundee win 4-5,Dunfermline 2-5,Bromley to win 10-

11, £6





Leicester prom 1-3,Bees win 6-4,Scunny prom 4-6,Alfreton prom 11-1,Dundee win 4-5,Dunfermline 2-5,Bromley to win 10-11

£3


BANK £608


edit:Scunny should be 8-11

 

[ONEDUNME]

PADDY POWER

Leicester to win 6-4,Bees prom 4-11,Scunny prom 4-6,Luton win 8-11,Dundee win 4-5,Dunfermline 2-5,Bromley to win 10-

11, £6





Leicester prom 1-3,Bees win 6-4,Scunny prom 4-6,Alfreton prom 11-1,Dundee win 4-5,Dunfermline 2-5,Bromley to win 10-11

£3


BANK £608


edit:Scunny should be 8-11

Alfreton for promotion at 11/1 is a stupid bet. I did point it out in the Conference thread where you asked the question but it's your dosh to waste.

 

[hotspur]

Alfreton for promotion at 11/1 is a stupid bet. I did point it out in the Conference thread where you asked the question but it's your dosh to waste.

I didnt see your comment on the Conf thread ODM but I will take a look presently.

As for it being a stupid bet I must admit that brought a smile to my face.

Because(of course) almost all serious gamblers(that Im aware of) believe that ALL of the bets on this thread are 'stupid' bets!!


For the benefit of any newbies etc this is because no serious gambler-or hardly any- believes antepost accas are anything other than a good way to gain maximum entertainment/interest from betting on football albeit with the added possibility of a reasonably big profit...if your lucks in.

 

[hotspur]

Alfreton for promotion at 11/1 is a stupid bet. I did point it out in the Conference thread where you asked the question but it's your dosh to waste.

Ive now read your comment on the Conf thread.

And Im very glad to hear that Alfreton are due to fall away.



I disagree however that the bet was stupid.

Because I am hedging 3 or 4 very strong positions on Cambridge.

Yes its true that the strongest positions in involve Rochdale winning the Lge 2 Handicap but obviously im going to be hedging that as well.

(The positions on Cambridge are mostly in the handicap but Id rather bet Alfreton at 11s for promotion than 5-2 in the handicap even though of course its not a guaranteed hedge.)


I may have to bet on other teams in the conference that appear to be 'stupid' bets (eg Nuneaton) on teams that have overachieved.

In the event I think I only placed 0.3% of my bank on Alfreton.


When I place a bet on antepost markets Im usually only looking ahead 3 or 4 games or so (despite anything Ive just said that may appear to contradict this)

Thus when deciding whether to bet on Alfreton at the time I did so my thought process is akin to,

"What do I expect their price to be IF they get 7 or more points from their next 4 games including a crucial game at Barnet?

And how does that compare to their expected price if they were to get just a couple of points?"


I then base my decision on the answers to those questions and CRUCIALLY the stake.

You cant go too far wrong in antepost in-running betting if all your bets are on teams near the top and your stake is very low.




But of course it goes without saying that everything Ive just said is just pure theory.

What do I know?

 

[hotspur]

BETVIC

Handicap unless stated


Celtic 5-1,Everton 11-4 /Arsenal 9-2,Leicester prom 1-3,Bees prom 1-3,Newport 15-8,Luton win Conf 8-13,Clyde Evns

2 bets @ £2

As above but Burton instead of Newport(hcp) 6-1

2 @ £1


Celtic 5-1,Everton 11-4/Arsenal 9-2,Leicester prom 1-3,Bees prom 1-3,Luton win 8-13,Dundee win 8-11,Annan(hcp) 9-2,

2 @ £1


BANK £600

 

[hotspur]

BETVIC

Handicap unless stated

Everton 11-4 /Arsenal 9-2,Leicester win 4-5,Bees prom 1-3,Cetic 5-1,Luton win 8-13,Clyde Evns/Annan 9-2

4 @ £1.50


BANK £594

 

[hotspur]

PADDY POWER

Leicester win 10-11,Bees win 8-5,Scunny win 3-1,Luton win 8-11,Bromley win 5-6,Peterhead win 8-13,North Ferriby win 11-4

£3

As above but Telford 10-3 instead of Nth Ferriby

£2

As above but Solihull 5-1 instead of Telford £1


BANK £588

 

[hotspur]

Gonna do a bet on Rhodes top scorer £4 in about 10 mins........regardless of events at Hillsboro...

 

[hotspur]

PADDY POWER

Rhodes 9-4,Stevenage rel 4-7,Scunny prom 8-13,Luton win 8-11,Peterhead win 8-13,Palermo win Ser B 7-4,Bromley win 5-6

£4

BANK £584


edit Palermo should be 11-8

 

[hotspur]

BETVIC

Ronaldo top Champs lge scorer 11-4, Orient 3-1, Inverness 6-4, Rangers Evens, East Stirling 2-1 Season Handicaps

£8 Each-Way =£16 Ronaldo 1/4 1234 All other place terms as above

BANK £909

I just dreamt that Stranraer were beating Rangers* 3-2 and in the dream I was thinking,"Hang on. If Stranraer win this they may win the handicap."

And then I woke up(Id been asleep all day) and realised that because Betvic long ago stopped this market I cant hedge Rangers!!


Not only that but I dont know how many points Stranraer were given in the handicap.

They look strong enough to win it.In the meantime Dunfermline are 17 points behind Rangers and I think they had a 26 point handicap but not sure so if Rangers let up near the end Dunfermline could well win it.


Anyway,Im just pointing out that this could be a problem unless they see sense and reintroduce this market.

I also have a bet on Messi which I thought was safe but is now next to useless so far hedging is concerned.


Hopefully this shouldnt have too big an affect on the thread as I have enough of a bank left and I mention it for the following reasons:


1) If this bet should win(which I doubt because East Stirling and Inverness are slipping up) I would make a big profit but I would have ordinarily spent part of it on hedging Rangers so it should be less.

2) I have been betting on Clyde partly because of hedging this position in the belief that BetVic would reintroduce this market if its close.

However I now wonder whether they would.


3) In case anyone else did any bets on Rangers in the handicap and are in a similar position.Beware of assuming this market will come back.




*I dont usually dream about football.I think my subconcious was warning me

 

[hotspur]

BETVIC

Leicester win 10-11,Bees win 5-4,Burton top 7 1-3, Aberdeen/Celtic/Motherwell hcp all 5-1,Clyde 5-4/Annan 4-1 hcp,Alfreton hcp 10-3


6 bets @£2

BANK £572

 

[hotspur]

Paddy Power again

Palace to be bottom 6-4 Yeovil rel. 8-11,Wolves prom 4-5,Fleetwood 10-11 prom,Inverness top 6 1-5,Napoli top 3 4-7,Bayer Leverkusen wout Big 2 11-10 Athletico Madrid wout Big 2 8-11

£4 Bank £982

 

[hotspur]

Im just going to post a few previous bets that have a reasonable chance of winning so that the overall situation is a bit clearer.

In the above bet today is a big day as I think Palace really need to be beating Stoke.And they have a whole host of harder games to come.....and play Fulham on the last day!

Ive been betting on Bees to win the league so if Wolves dont get automatic then Bees chances are obviously so much greater.

Fleetwood look more like being in the playoffs but thats fine because as long as they are in contention the odds on other teams should remain buoyant.

 

[hotspur]

BETVIC

1 )Ronaldo top Champs lge scorer 11-10,Burnley 5-6,Os 8-13,Morecambe 2-1,Cambridge 2-1,Bromley 4-1 all to win handicaps,Queens Park to be bottom 1-4

£1

2) As above except Rochdale 5-2 instead of Morecambe £1.50



Total £8.50 BANK £805.50

 

[hotspur]

I have 3 bets involving QPR to win the Championship which are decent IF QPR buy a decent striker.

Until they do theres no need to requote them as Leicester are looking a cut above.

 

[hotspur]

BETVIC

Clyde handicap,Ronaldo top champs lge scorer,Dundee to win SDchamps,SD2,Everton wout big

6,Derby top 6,Juventus serie A,Luton to be promoted

£12



As above but Ibrahimovic instead of Ronaldo £2


BANK £655

This bet is a useful barometer since it would return roughly/almost the amount Ive laid out thus far.

Its a big day for it as Clyde play Annan,Derby play Brighton and Dundee play Hamilton



(The missing prices are Clyde 6-4,Ronaldo 4-6,Dundee 10-11,Everton 2-7,Derby 8-13,Juve 2-9,Luton 4-6)