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Antepost Soccer Betting/35% r.o.i

well,it doesnt take much to be banned from skybet,betvic and stan James.

The tote banned me after what I thought was a pretty modest win..I think it was each-way accas they didnt like.
Same goes for Stan James...once again betting each-way probably didnt help.
In the case of BetVic I used them last season to hedge an acca and the acca lost so their bet won...and Ive just had a small return come back after last weeks results...didnt even know about it til I logged on yesterday.

Was banned from Coral shops cos my written bets were somewhat complicated and one time they grossly underpaid me on an each-way acca,then after 2 weeks at their head office they came back with a far larger settlement.....which was still wrong!!!!
So I wrote a scathing letter to the Racing and Football Outlook which was published.....and then I got banned.
The useless batards still owe me a 4-figure sum...:ranter,only just 4 figures....
 
You sure hotspur, only you've posted about 95% losing bets on here since you joined last year.
 
ha,ha I wondered what this was leading up to-do you mean on this thread or on this site?

and Yes,I am sure-knowing who Im banned from is kind of essential info specially at this time of season:)
 
you know Punter,funnily enough,if 5% of all the accas I had ever placed had had a return I think Id probably be banned from a lot more bookies!
 
Well,Thudercelt,its looking as if Montpellier are gonna win the league tonight.
I dont know what the odds are gonna be after tonight-I actually wanted a draw as the closer things are the easier it is for me to hedge bets....I would have thought theyd be 4-11 at best-would certainly be very happy with 4-9!

,
 
I'm mainly on PSG but break even if Montpellier win

I'm happy doing singles as it suits my style (I prefer regular small wins to irregular long shots) but the jury is very much out on whether it's a losing 'system' or whether I'm low down on a learning curve.
 
I wanted to take the opportunity to pick up on a point that Punter has,albeit inadvertently,alluded to.

I particularly wanted to make this point in case any new member is put off antepost betting and,in particular,antepost multiples,by the fact that almost all my bets(on this thread) have lost-if not all!:eek:

Firstly,hopefully everyone knows the purpose of accumulator bets(apart from entertainment)?

No,not to pay for bookies winter holidays,but to increase your profits.

But if accas can increase your profits why do many pro gamblers not use them?

Because when you do accumulator bets you greatly increase the chances of going on a long losing run.

This applies to ANYONE-doesnt matter who you are-its pure maths.Fuck,someone called Joe who was mentioned on,I believe,LMCs thread even wrote a book about it.

And theres 2 problems with long losing runs,

1)you risk losing all your money

2)and this is the main point-it can destroy the confidence you need in order to make a profit from gambling!!

There are many,many very intelligent,hard-working,knowledgable people who have tried to make it as pro gamblers but have failed...and the main reason they failed is because when,yes WHEN,the inevitable losing run occurred they couldnt deal with it psychologically and thus gave up.


Whats this got to do with Punters post?Simply this:

Its entirely possible that this thread will end up in deficit--after all if it was guaranteed to be in profit,Id be betting "my house" on these bets-and if that should happen its also clear that some people on here will see that almost as "proof"that everything I have said is false.

No problem-thats life/gambling/people.

ALL I want to say is this-make up your own mind and dont be put off antepost betting-it really is your best chance of making money from soccer betting but,above all else,understand that if you are going to do accumulator bets in order to try to increase your profits:

the main advantages to antepost accumulators are that all your bets are effectively hedges on each other and you dont have" long losing runs" as such because you only win or lose at the end of the season!

but what about antepost singles? If you are only ever going to do singles then just be aware that you are never going to make more than 12% profit a year and that every time you hedge your bets its likely that you are doing a poor value bet due to the fact that the overrounds in antepost markets are 30%approximately and this will eat into that theoretical 12% profit.


Oh yes,one final thing....on average 98% of all the accumulator bets Ive ever done have failed to land me any return at all.

Last season NONE of my accas gave me any return...on 2 occaisions in the last 14 years I have lost 80% of my bank and in at least 4 seasons I failed to make a profit........


I dont mind anyone quoting me bad stats....cos I know far worse ones....

Everyone knows the lies,damned lies and stats quotation but actually no statistic is a lie.

Statistics are facts!!.

The problem isnt stats,its people and their biased interpretations of stats and everything else.*

There aint nothing I can do about that except point it out....



*nb this is aimed at people in general-including,at times,myself


(rcgills,I very much hope this post is just about acceptable-Im only talking if its implied by anyone that anything Ive said is not true-otherwise its back to the all important bets:))
 
Well,well,well it looks as if Willie Hill reads Betnod:eek::unsure.
Well,anyway he has finally cut his stand-out 10-3 Crewe to 11-4 which is the best price I expected to find .
Luckily Ladbrokes are offering 3-1 and I shall be making what could be my final soccer bet(not including Euro top scorer)of this thread by betting 60 points on,er,The Railwaymen.
It is of course very unprofessional of me to fail to take the 10-3 on offer....lets hope that isnt the difference between a profit or loss.....hmmm,having said that,I rather hope it is...cos it would mean that this thread proves something-Im lazy and procrastinate a lot!

60 points Crewe to be promoted Ladbrokes

(I will be trying to avoid all knowledge of soccer results until late next week so that I can stop drinking so much and relax but it shouldnt affect this thread:))

If Blades won by 2 goals yesterday-or even 1 goal then its likely that I need Crewe to win the play-offs as I didnt bother hedging Stevenage with Blades......

Er,Up The Railwaymen!!
 
At 8pm a very intriguing situation in France begins to unfold.
If Montpellier win they are champions-a remarkable achievement.
However a draw may be a good enough result for them as PSG have a very tricky game.
Both Lille and PSG need to win and I believe I may regret it if I dont try to gain some points from the situation.

Am in a hurry so didnt consult betfair.

I believe theres a reasonable chance of goals at PSG thus,

PSG 4-3 1 pt boylesports 200-1
PSG 4-2 2 pts general 50-1
PSG 3-2 5 points general 25-1
PSG 2-2 10 points 18-1 boylesports

Montpellier v Lille
1-0 8-1 bet365(? ) 10 points
0-0 10-1 5 points general
1-1 6-1 10 points coral
2-0 12-1 5 points coral

48 pts total
nb To some extent most of these bets are hedging my Lille bet
 
correction if Montpellier win they arent champions but my Lille bet will have lost and there will be no value opportunties that I can forsee
 
BOLLOCKS!!!!

Cant believe it!!!!Just checked the cc div 1 prices and Warwickshire are best price 7/4!!
Before last weeks washed out games they were available at 11/4 and I decided to wait as they werent playing!!!

I have to admit that was a big error on my part and could well be the difference between a profit and loss.

Even worse,I am now not sure how much to bet on them-11/4 was def value but 7/4!?Especially with Notts having some winnable games coming up.

On the other hand,I believe that if Warwicks win 2 out of the next 3 they could be evens.
There are a couple of bookies who have yet to declare a price and I am hoping that one may go 2s or even 9/4.

It may well be that I only do one more bet on this thread....160 points Warwicks at 2s...we will see...
 
Ha,except of course that I have a healthy position on Stevenage-415 points.
I must admit I have trouble deciding how much to bet on Blades..but had to come up with something thus,

Ladbrokes
Sheff Utd to be prom. 15-8 190 points

also Huddersfield to be prom. Evens generally 120 points

Stevenage to win 2-1 19 betfair 6 points 3-1 70 2 points
2-0 34 3 points
2-2 22 5 points 1-1 8 10 points
0-0 11 4 points

I will work out bank after Montpellier complete their championship at the weekend
 
so just to sum up,all I need for this thread to make a profit is Sheffield Utd to draw 2-2 with Stevenage,go through in extra time or pens. and beat Huddersfield in the final.

er,simples:unsure
 
Think Stevenage are going through here, there's no away goal rule is there?
 
2 points Huddersfield 0-2 22 betfair

really annoyed with myself for not placing say 20 points on Huddersfield after it turned out theyd be away in the first leg as I thought MK Dons would be value for an away result.
Now though the pressure is very much off Huddersfield but 22 is I think just about worth a couple of points.
 
Oh ffs,
Wake up at 3.30 pm to find its May 16th which means there are county championship games underway.
And Warwickshire are 184-1 v Lancs.

And of course I havent put any points on them!

I have too much on my mind with my own bets which,as is often the case,will depend on the play-off finals.

I imagine that if Warwicks win this easily(and I very much hope Lancs can force a draw)Ill be lucky to get 11-8.

It means that I will have no choice but to stick up to 300 points on them.

Doing multiple bets right now is not really a good idea because:

a)Formula 1 is having its most unpredictable season for 20 years or more
antepost betting does depend to some extent on predicting likely results or at least having a reasonable idea

b) I am not convinced by Warrington in Superleague yet they have the easier fixtures for the time being.

c)county championship division 2 can be won by 5 teams and it may not be apparent who to bet on for a couple of months

d)The Euro championships Top Scorer market is very open imo...largely due to the groups and the fact that we dont know who will be up front for Spain...

e) In the golf I believe the 2 main Money List markets are also very open

Now,lest anyone think I am making an excuse for not making a profit-well not only am I not making an excuse,I never will-its your job to assess whether any profit or loss was due to good/bad luck/not starting til October/abandoning the thread for 4 months etc(.I personally wont be changing any opinion I have of my own ability based on anything in this thread ..but you dont have anything else to go on-I understand.)

What I AM doing is explaining why my next bet will have to be an even bigger bet on Warwickshire as a single...when the whole point of this thread is to point out the advantages of antepost accumulators!

I am afraid that it looks like it will come down to whether Warwicks go on a bad run or not.
If they dont,then this thread should be in profit.
Of course it wont be anything like 35% BUT to get that I needed to do accumulators-dozens of them...
 
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