Tuesday 7th December
1.30 Uttoxeter - Gustavian 0.5 Point EW @ 5/1
Tough little handicap this one but i'm gonna side with Anthony Honeyballs' GUSTAVIAN who hasn't been out of the first 3 home in 9 runs. Has been on the sidelines since coming third in a class 2 race back in February of this year , and has had wind surgery since he's been out so could well be worth keeping him onside for at least a couple of runs. Can't fault him so far tbh and i really can't see any reason why he shouldn't run his race today , some big name stables respresented in Nicky Henderson (double handed) , Dan Skelton and Harry Fry , with the former pair knocking in the winners left right and centre and whilst i respect them and their runners i'm happy to plump for the selection , trainer is no slouch and knows the time of day and has an 18% strike rate here at Uttoxeter. If fit and ready he should go close.
4.30 Southwell - Mulzim 0.5 Point EW @ 16/1 NON RUNNER ... Astro Jakk 0.5 Point EW @ 22/13rd 28/1
Was in two minds whether to look at Southwell tbh , with the new surface having its first airing so to speak but i really do like the chances of a couple in this and i'd be loathe to miss them if either of them come in at decent prices. MULZIM is the first one that caught my eye and the one i like the chances of most , has won three times this year and seems to have a liking for Southwell , winning 6 times and placing once from 10 runs. Was plum last at Nottingham last time out but i'm hopeful that a return to a course he does well at will bring about some improvement. Daniel Muscutt onboard and he's ridden the horse 13 times with the end result being 6 wins and 2 places , so knows the horse well enough for me , he has a 26% strike rate at Southwell and that improves to 29% when its older horses he's riding. Been riding quite well of late with a 17% strike rate over the past 21 days. Trainer Mike Murphy sends just this one out today and he enjoys a 19% SR at the course (23% with his older horses) and it could be worth noting that he relies on just this sole runner today. The other horse i like is ASTRO JAKK , who like my other fancy ran an absolute stinker when last seen but i think an improved performance could be on the cards with this one as well , has a 50% strike rate over CD (2 wins from 4 runs) and 3 wins and a place from 8 runs overall. Trainer seems to be hitting form and has a respectable 21% SR at Southwell. PJ McDonald tales the ride and he's bang in form with a 33% strike rate over the past fortnight , has ridden the horse before , 7 rides resulting in one win and two places. I think its interesting that they've reached for the blinkers for the first time today and if they have the desired affect i think he can go well at a decent price.
Thursday 9th December
3.00 Warwick - High Counsel 0.5 Point EW @ 22/1 (BetFred)6th
Rank outsider of the field at the moment so HIGH COUNSEL probably doesnt jump out as an obvious choice in this but theres a few things that catch my eye. The first obviously is his course form , three from five and one place here at Warwick and that looks even better over todays CD where he's two from two. Trainer sends just this one out today and he has a 38% strike rate here at Warwick with his runners , and that looks even better when you look solely at his chasers , 4 from 7 , giving him a 57% strike rate and over the past fortnight he's sent out two runners with one winning and the pther coming 4th. First time up for jockey K Brogan but he's riding well at the moment with a 27% strike rate over the past 3 weeks , he has a respectable enough 15% strike rate at Warwick which improves slightly to 20% when focusing on just chasers. Horse is coming back from a 5 month lay off which is always a slight worry and its taken on trust that the trainer has him fit and ready to roll. At the current odds im more than happy to have a small each way to nothing on him.
7.30 Chelmsford - Bayston Hill 0.5 Point @ 14/1 (generally)
Couple catch my eye in this as the only CD winners in the race so i'm hoping that previous experience here , first up is top weight BAYSTON HILL who rarely seems to run a bad race at Chelmsford with 5 wins and 5 places from 13 runs over CD , was a good fifth here over CD last time and can hopefully improve on that run this evening. Trainer Mark Usher hasnt been in the best of form but he has a 14% strike rate here and sends just this one out , and the horse seems to run some of his best races here which is a major tick in my book. Dont know alot about the jockey tbh but given the horse knows this course like the back of his hoove im happy to have a small each way investment at decent odds. The other one i like is ENGRAVE whose been knocking on the door lately , coming second in his previous two outings , was beaten 3/4 length over todays CD lto and i really see no reason why he shouldnt his race and go close again at a nice price. Horse has a similiar course profile to Bayston Hill with 4 wins and 3 places from 13 runs over CD. Not a great fan of amateur races if im honest and especially when you're going against the likes of Simon Walker but i feel that given the horses CD form it will stand them in good stead and can hopefully give them a small edge.
Friday 10th December
6.15 Southwell - Custard The Dragon 0.5 Point EW @ 25/1
CUSTARD THE DRAGON doesnt look an obvious type on first glance admittedly and being one of the rank outsiders hardly inspires confidence but his efforts at this course do give hope of a decent run imho. Soundly beaten when last seen but before that won over todays CD by 3 1/2 lengths and in the two runs prior to that win was second on both occasions. Overall at todays CD the horse has run 20 times , winning 8 of them and placing in 5 others , thats not a bad record by anyones standards i think. Returning to a CD he seems comfortable at will hopefully see a more spirited effort. He'll have to eek out a bit more but has dropped in grade from his last run which wont hurt matters. Joe Fanning has 5 winners and 5 places from his 24 rides and if things go right i think he could just pop up at a decent price.
6.45 Southwell - Queen Of Kalahari 0.5 Point EW @ 16/1
Couple on my radar in this one , firstly TRUE HERO who comes into this bang in form - 1,2,1,3,2 in his 5 most recent runs and has been in the winners enclosure 5 times this year. Decent enough course form , 2 wins and 2 places from 5 outings over CD and i can see another solid effort in the offing this evening although theres a few , aside from my nominated pair , who hold decent chances. The other one i like is QUEEN OF KALAHARI whose 2 from 2 over CD and has won 6 times and placed twice from her 10 runs here at Shuvvel. Les Eyre has a decent enough 18% strike rate here and sends just this one out today whilst Lewis Edmunds has a 14% strike rate at the course and seems to get on well enough with the horse having ridden her 17 times resulting in 7 wins and 3 places. Will need to be at her best to trouble the principals but thats entirely possible and at the price a chance im willing to take
Sunday 12th December
12.45 Southwell - Dreamsundermyfeet 1 Point Win @ 4/1
DREAMSUNDERMYFEET comes into this race in fine fettle , the figures for his last six races read - 2,1,1,1,3,1. Won his last race comfortably enough and is re united with jockey Ben Godfrey today who has a win and a place from his two rides aboard the horse , and claims a useful 5lb which can only aid the cause i think , and he goes for just this one ride. Trainer Martin Keighley has a 21% strike rate over the past 3 weeks and has a decent 18% strike rate at the course overall but this improves to a more eyecatching 31% when you concentrate soley on chase races. Horse himself , as already stated , is enjoying a purple patch and has some good course form to bring to the table being 3 from 3 at Southwell , with two of those over todays CD. I'll be surprised if he doesnt go close here today.
