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Horses For Courses

ONEDUNME :lol

Yeah gotta admit i've paid my dues on that score and chasing the money that i've lost .. older and wiser now ... well .. older anyway :wasnme
 
And nothing again for tomorrow , couple caught my eye tbh the first was Calivigny (available at 40s currently) and i am tempted as has decent enough course and distance form and i think he'll fare better after his comeback run but i still think he'll be up against it so decided to give it a miss , the other was G Moores Ruby Yeats , now below last winning mark and though i think he'll run better than he did last time its a 6 runner race and i'd want 8 runners for a first 3 each way rather than the two tbh so again a swerve for me
 
Well done the right thing in swerving today , Calivigny came 7th and Ruby Yeats came third which was what i was worried about lol
 
Wednesday 22nd December

5.30 Southwell - Light Lily 0.5 Point EW @ 7/1 / Susie Javea 0.5 Point EW @ 33/1
Couple in this one catch my eye at decent enough prices for small each ways , LIGHT LILY comes into this on the back of a last time out win , beating Nibras Shadow by a head , and although she's no sure thing to follow up she's no back number either , NS hasnt been out since but the fourth that day has run twice coming 5th and 3rd respectively whilst the third home that day won on its next outing. What makes me think she could go close here is her course form to date , 6 runs overall winning three of them and placing once , over CD that improves to 3 runs resulting in 2 wins and a place. Daniel Muscutt rode her to that win last time and the pair are re united today , he's got a win from two rides under his belt. Been riding well enough with a 15% strike rate over the past fortnight , whilst he has a corking 27% SR at Southwell. Trainer hasnt been in the best of form which is a slight concern admittedly but happy enough with the horses overall profile at the price. The other one i like is SUSIE JAVEA , admittedly a bit of a punt at the price but given that shes never been unplaced over todays CD (7 runs - 3 wins / 4 places) i think at the current price she's worth a small each way investment. Ollie Pears sends just this one out and whilst he too hasnt been in the best of form i think it could be worth noting given the horses CD form to date. Harry Russell gets the leg up and he has 3 wins and 2 places from his 8 rides , horse will have to show a bit more than it has done recently but has won 4 times this year and i think that the last time out run , after a break , will have her (hopefully) spot on for this at a tasty each way price.

7.30 Southwell - Liamba 0.5 Point EW @ 11/1
LIAMBA ran well enough when 5th last time when you take into consideration the fact she was coming back from a 300 day lay off , she was only beaten a length and three quarters that day so definatley a pleasing come back run. Interestingly enough the one that won that race (the inform Cherish) runs today as well , in the 2.30 at Wolverhampton , a decent run might well point to a decent effort from Liamba im thinking. Has won 3 times over CD and placed 6 times from her 12 runs which isnt too bad at all imho (whilst overall at Shuvvel shes run 22 times , winning 4 times and placing 9) so definatley seems to have a liking for the course. Michael Appleby is another one who doesnt seem to be firing on all cylinders at the mo but as with the others ive posted i think course form could come into play , well thats my thinking anyway. At the price (which ive noticed has gone to 9/1 now as i type) i think shes worth an each way to nothing in the hope she puts her best foot forward.
 
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I did also look at Custard the Dragon who did this thread a favour a few days ago by placing at 40/1 , but i thought the 5/1 on offer was a but skinny and didnt represent any value for me , also looked at Cherish (mentioned in above write ups) but once again couldnt see any value in it personally
 
Given the change of surface, I'm not sure that past history is worth much at Southwell to be honest. If it did, I'd like the chances of Queen of Kalihari at 14/1 in the 730 race. having once ran up a hat trick of wins there at 6 furlongs . The other one I like the look of is Tathmeen (14/1) which, although not at Southwell, has a winning record over 6f on tapeta

And without wishing to invade your thread with my own inane ramblings, I see that I went through the cards on Sunday and have Ricksen (16/1)scribbled down for the 530 race but, annoyingly, it doesn't say why I picked it out and looking at it now, I have no idea.

The other one I have down is Gooner Bay but at least I can understand why I found that of interest on handicap debut and after wind surgery. Very much an unknown quantity but may be worth a chuck at 16/1 with 4 places on offer.


Good luck in any event
 
Cheers , No problem invading the thread , least it shows someones reading it lol

See where you're coming from re the re-surfacing at Shuvvel , im not sure how relevant the 'old' form is but its kind of worked so far so im gonna stick at it .. think i mentioned it in one of the write ups if i remember rightly that i dont know how its gonna pan out with the new surface / existing form

I did shortlist Queen Of Kalahari , but plumped for Liamba as a sole bet , i did put up QoK on here , same day as Custard The Dragon placed , just didnt fancy it quite as much today

Best of luck with yours today
 
No luck with any of the trio so scores on the doors are

Points Staked - 17 Points
EP +9.01
SP +5.88
 
Nothing for Sunday 26th December , surprisingly really considering how many meetings there are. A few catch my eye , two in the King George in particular , Clan Des Obeaux for obvious reasons , but i really dont think CDO will win but will run a solid race and a go well/close , but at the current price cant be having an each way on it and Frodon who is a horse i really like , although for me just shy of top class and although i think will go well the price is a little too skinny when i consider his chances / the opposition. Happy enough to leave well alone and just watch the racing today
 
Monday 27th December

2.15 Wetherby - Fransham 1 Point Win @ 11/4
A few look to hold chances in this if im honest but Pam Slys course and distance winner FRANSHAM catsches my eye , comes into this on the back of a decent win last time , beating the re opposing Cornerstone Lad by 3 3/4 lengths over todays CD , jumped and won well that day and was probably value for a bit more imho , and i really cant see why he shouldnt go well again. Horse is one from one over CD and overall has 5 wins and a place from 7 outings here , so obviously knows Wetherby like the back of his hoove. I like trainer Pam Sly , i rate her as a shrewd placer of her horses and the fact that she sends just this one out today could be a pointer that a decent run is expected. She does well at Wetherby with a 17% strike rate , but she does even better with her chasers here (24% SR). Jockey Paul O'Brien hasnt been in the best of form lately , but has ridden the horse before , winning and placing from his 4 rides , so that does help to allay some of my fears given hsi form. He also goes for just this one today , and although he isnt riding the winners at the moment , given the horses course form and the way he won here last time im happy enough to have a punt on the win in the hope that he can follow up.

7.10 Wolverhampton - Athmad 0.5 Point EW @ 15/2
ATHMAD was a decent enough third of five at Chelmsford last time out , but looking at his course form here at Wolverhampton (8 runs - 4 wins / 3 places) i think an improved perfomance could well be on the cards. Trainer Ruth Carr hasnt been knocking the winners in lately but i think Athmad could well change that this evening , or go close trying anyway. Shes sending just this one out today and although he'll have to be on the ball i think he can go close here. Jockey Paul Mulrennan has a 27% strike rate over the past 3 weeks and he too goes for just this one , and he's never been unplaced when riding the horse , with a win and 3 places from his 4 rides to date , so hopefully he can make it never unplaced from 5!

 
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Sean said:
Monday 27th December

2.15 Wetherby - Fransham 1 Point Win @ 11/4 :angry
A few look to hold chances in this if im honest but Pam Slys course and distance winner FRANSHAM catsches my eye , comes into this on the back of a decent win last time , beating the re opposing Cornerstone Lad by 3 3/4 lengths over todays CD , jumped and won well that day and was probably value for a bit more imho , and i really cant see why he shouldnt go well again. Horse is one from one over CD and overall has 5 wins and a place from 7 outings here , so obviously knows Wetherby like the back of his hoove. I like trainer Pam Sly , i rate her as a shrewd placer of her horses and the fact that she sends just this one out today could be a pointer that a decent run is expected. She does well at Wetherby with a 17% strike rate , but she does even better with her chasers here (24% SR). Jockey Paul O'Brien hasnt been in the best of form lately , but has ridden the horse before , winning and placing from his 4 rides , so that does help to allay some of my fears given hsi form. He also goes for just this one today , and although he isnt riding the winners at the moment , given the horses course form and the way he won here last time im happy enough to have a punt on the win in the hope that he can follow up.

7.10 Wolverhampton - Athmad 0.5 Point EW @ 15/2 :angry
ATHMAD was a decent enough third of five at Chelmsford last time out , but looking at his course form here at Wolverhampton (8 runs - 4 wins / 3 places) i think an improved perfomance could well be on the cards. Trainer Ruth Carr hasnt been knocking the winners in lately but i think Athmad could well change that this evening , or go close trying anyway. Shes sending just this one out today and although he'll have to be on the ball i think he can go close here. Jockey Paul Mulrennan has a 27% strike rate over the past 3 weeks and he too goes for just this one , and he's never been unplaced when riding the horse , with a win and 3 places from his 4 rides to date , so hopefully he can make it never unplaced from 5!
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Well no luck today , Athmad was disappointing i thought but Fransham was unlucky imho , was going well when unseating the rider .. nothing for Tuesday 28th December

Points Staked - 19 Points
EP +7.01
SP +3.88
 
Nothing for Wednesday 29th / Thursday 30th December , a couple catch my eye tomorrow but happy enough to swerve them , nothing at all stands out on Thursday tbh
 
And nothing for the last day of the year , was tempted by a couple at Lingfield (C'est No Mour and Lucky Ava) but both have opposition i'd be worried about and both are prices im happy enough to leave alone given that opposition , also quite like High Counsel who is a decent price but has more against it than for it if im being honest so again happy enough to leave it alone
So end up finishing the month ahead on both SP and EP

Points Staked - 19 Points
EP +7.01
SP +3.88

Hopefully 2022 can start as profitable as we finished 2021 , fingers crossed anyway. Anyhoo's cheers for looking in and all the best for the new year , hope its a healthy and profitable one :thumb
 
Saturday 1st January

2.50 Musselburgh - Gaelik Coast 1 Point EW @ 4/1
GAELIK COAST is the only CD winner in the race , two from two over todays CD , and though i rate his chances highly theres a few niggling doubts im concerned about so ive opted for an each way , so that at a quarter the odds , if he ony manages to place at least thats money back , nothing lost and a nice little bonus should he win. Has won on his last 2 visits here and i think a return to this course could well pay dividends. Brian Hughes is in great form , having a 27% SR rate over the past fortnight , and he knows the horse well enough having ridden him 14 times (resulting in 5 wins and 2 places) , he has a none too shabby 21% strike rate at the Scottish track whilst trainer Donald Mccain has a 23% SR at the course and has a 24% strike rate over the past 2 weeks. When combining their talents the pair have an enviable 29% strike rate over the past 21 days and Hughes has won on the last two horses he's ridden for the trainer. As i said not 100% about the 100% but rates a solid chance imho.

2.35 Cheltenham - Kansas City Chief 0.5 Point EW @ 9/1
Since having a come back run in Jersey after a break with 7lb claimer Victoria Malzard aboard the horse seems to have had a new lease of life. In the three runs since , all at Cheltenham , the horse has won twice and come third , all with Ms Malzard in the plate so the pair seem to have struck up a decent partnership (especially around Cheltenham). In total the pair have teamed up 5 times with 2 wins and 2 places the end result , the jockey has a 50% strike rate at the course and goes for just this one ride. The horse has 2 wins and 2 places from 7 runs over todays CD , which catches my eye as Cheltenham always strikes me as one of those tracks where proven course form is a definite aid to a horse. Trainer has 3 out today but only this one at Cheltenham where he has a 13% SR. Jockey and trainer are one from one over the past 3 weeks , and despite being the oldest horse in the race i dont think KANSAS CITY CHIEF is any sort of back number in this and i think he can go well here today.

1.43 Southwell - Straitouttacompton 0.5 Point EW @ 6/1
Well STRAITOUTTACOMPTON done this thread a favour when a sound third last time out over todays CD , that was coming on the back of a 174 day break so i think the horse will strip fitter for that run and will have bown the cobwebs away and go well again today. I also think that the re application of cheekpieces wont harm his chances either if im honest , and at the current price i think he rates a decent each way and can give a good account of himself , and be fighting out the finish , hopefully finishing a couple of places better than his last run.
 
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Cheers SAMOAN , and all the best for the new year hope its a happy and profitable one for you
 
Joined you on Straitouttacompton, but also feel Love Destiny could go well at a price, so added that one for the forecast. Just got 15/2 on yours, which certainly does appeal and 25's on LD.
 
Any thoughts Sean on Potters Legend in the 12.50 Cheltenham. Seems to go well at the track, but has yet to record a win there. Consistency not his strong point either any more at 12yo, but has the first time visor at 33's, so a good run looks possible.
 
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