• Hi and welcome to Betnod. Please register for even more tips, analysis and chat.

Horses For Courses

Nothing for Monday 13th December

Quite tempted by Trusty Rusty , but a few in that who could spoil it for him and I See You Well , 3/3 over CD and in with a definite shout but i have my reservations so giving them a miss
 
Well Trusty Rusty came third , but I See You Well won at 13/2 so that one certainly came back to bite me in the arse bigtime , one of the reasons i gave it a miss is the early price , if it was anything like 13/2 i'd have had a go at it .. now working on Tuesday
 
Well , nothing for Tuesday 14th December , the 6.00 at Newcastle caught my eye with Tadleel being 3/3 over CD but theres a few others with good course form in there , Kind Review and Lead Story are two that stand out for me , and at the prices im thinking its a wise move to leave it alone. Another that interested me was Daytime Ahead in the 3.00 Wincanton , 2 from 2 over CD and 3 wins and 2 places from 8 runs at the course overall , and at a tasty 25/1 he definatley caught my eye , but he showed nothing really in his three outings last term and is coming back from a 260 day lay off , he's also having his first start for CJ Downs whose not exactly banging in the winners at the moment tbh so i think its a safer option to watch and wait , i am sorely tempted and i hope this doesnt come back and haunt me come ten past three tomorrow afternoon lol
 
Mmmm interesting one. I suppose it's a case of, do you favor horses dropping down to what looks to be a winnable mark (Kind Review and Tadleel) or one that looks to be progressive (Lead Story).

Not that it matters as you've said you'll be leaving it alone but I would favor Tadleel.
 
My first instinct was to go for Tadleel tbh but i do like Kind Review , and you couldnt honestly rule out Lead Story , so bit of a mare for me to try and whittle em down and decide , if it was just two i'd probably back both to a point win each but not three of em at the current prices , and im loathe to leave one out cus that will be the one that wins
 
My first instinct was to go for Tadleel tbh but i do like Kind Review , and you couldnt honestly rule out Lead Story , so bit of a mare for me to try and whittle em down and decide , if it was just two i'd probably back both to a point win each but not three of em at the current prices , and im loathe to leave one out cus that will be the one that wins

Yep, sometimes you've just got to let 'em go
 
Nowt for Wednesday 15th December , a few for Thursday catch my eye so see what happens after a closer look
 
Thursday 16th December

2.45 Exeter - Tudors Treasure 0.5 Point EW @ 12/1
TUDORS TREASURE comes into this on the back of a couple of lacklustre efforts at Ffos Las but prior to that run a solid race when a neck second at the same venue , seems to like it here at Exeter with 3 wins and a place from 5 runs over CD , trainer Robert Stephens has a respectable enough 17% strike rate here but that increases to a 38% SR with his chasers , whilst Charlie Deutsch gets the steering job for the first time and has a 15% SR over the past 3 weeks , a 16% SR at the course and a slight increase when you concentrate solely on chasers (18%) . A few in this look to hold chances but given the horses course form i'm happy enough with a small each way play.

1.05 Exeter - Trans Express 0.5 Point EW @ 7/1
Some big name stables lining up in this one (likes of Fry , Nicholls , Tizzard , Hobbs et al) but im gonna come down on the side of Sue Gardners TRANS EXPRESS , on the face of it not alot to recommend it going by this seasons efforts but his best races seem to have come here at Exeter so i'm happy enough to give him a chance , from 17 runs here he's won 6 times and placed 5 times , that record looks even better over todays CD with 10 runs resulting in 6 wins and a place. Lucy Gardner in the plate and shes won on the horse 7 times and placed 7 times , so im guessing she knows the horse well enough. Trainer sends just this one out and she has a 20% strike rate with her chasers here whilst this is also Lucys sole ride of the day and she enjoys a 17% strike rate when riding chasers here at Exeter. As i say not been in the best of form thus far and up against some big named trainers but given the horses course form to date i cant but help have a small each way investment.

2.06 Southwell - Red Allure 0.5 Point EW @ 10/1
RED ALLURE usually runs a decent race here at Shuvvel , altho obviously the new surface is an unknown to a certain extent , from 5 runs over CD he's won once and placed 3 times , at 10/1 that peaks my interest as an each way to nothing to shot. Been knocking on the door last coupla races , third on penultimate start and then a solid neck second last time out to Fircombe Hall at Newcastle , so definatley comes into this in decent nick and should hopefully run well enough this afternoon. Trainer sends just this one out and she has a 20% strike rate over the past fortnight , whilst Josephine Gordon has a 13% SR over the same period , ridden the horse once before resulting in a place , hopefully can put his best foot forward and go close here.

1 Point Win Treble ..

2.36 Southwell - Carausis 10/11
2 outta 2 over CD , won a decent little handicap over track and trip lto and despite penalty should give a good account. Charlie Hills sends just this one today and has a 50% strike rate in past 14 days ,
6.00 Chelmsford - Bacule 15/8
1 from 1 over CD and comes into this in fine form in search of a four timer and entirely possible that he'll achieve it , won by a cosy length and a half lto and it could be that a 4lb rise wont stop him. George Rooke is 3/3 aboard the horse and retains the ride , hopefully go close here.
6.35 Chelmsford - Internationalangel 11/10
Bang in form looking for the 5 timer , since going to Jane Chapple Hyams yard has won all 3 starts and despite going up 7lb i really do think he'll go close in achieving the 5 timer.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'll be interested to see how Birds of Prey runs in the 105 race. Had my eye on it for a while but hasn't run for a long time and that was on the flat.
 
Couldnt discount coming from the yard it does , overall profile looks good but plenty short enough considering the lay off imo , if it came from an unfashionable yard it'd probably be 20/1+
 
Thursday 16th December

2.45 Exeter - Tudors Treasure 0.5 Point EW @ 12/1 :angry
TUDORS TREASURE comes into this on the back of a couple of lacklustre efforts at Ffos Las but prior to that run a solid race when a neck second at the same venue , seems to like it here at Exeter with 3 wins and a place from 5 runs over CD , trainer Robert Stephens has a respectable enough 17% strike rate here but that increases to a 38% SR with his chasers , whilst Charlie Deutsch gets the steering job for the first time and has a 15% SR over the past 3 weeks , a 16% SR at the course and a slight increase when you concentrate solely on chasers (18%) . A few in this look to hold chances but given the horses course form i'm happy enough with a small each way play.

1.05 Exeter - Trans Express 0.5 Point EW @ 7/1 :thumb 3rd 14/1
Some big name stables lining up in this one (likes of Fry , Nicholls , Tizzard , Hobbs et al) but im gonna come down on the side of Sue Gardners TRANS EXPRESS , on the face of it not alot to recommend it going by this seasons efforts but his best races seem to have come here at Exeter so i'm happy enough to give him a chance , from 17 runs here he's won 6 times and placed 5 times , that record looks even better over todays CD with 10 runs resulting in 6 wins and a place. Lucy Gardner in the plate and shes won on the horse 7 times and placed 7 times , so im guessing she knows the horse well enough. Trainer sends just this one out and she has a 20% strike rate with her chasers here whilst this is also Lucys sole ride of the day and she enjoys a 17% strike rate when riding chasers here at Exeter. As i say not been in the best of form thus far and up against some big named trainers but given the horses course form to date i cant but help have a small each way investment.

2.06 Southwell - Red Allure 0.5 Point EW @ 10/1 :angry
RED ALLURE usually runs a decent race here at Shuvvel , altho obviously the new surface is an unknown to a certain extent , from 5 runs over CD he's won once and placed 3 times , at 10/1 that peaks my interest as an each way to nothing to shot. Been knocking on the door last coupla races , third on penultimate start and then a solid neck second last time out to Fircombe Hall at Newcastle , so definatley comes into this in decent nick and should hopefully run well enough this afternoon. Trainer sends just this one out and she has a 20% strike rate over the past fortnight , whilst Josephine Gordon has a 13% SR over the same period , ridden the horse once before resulting in a place , hopefully can put his best foot forward and go close here.

1 Point Win Treble ..

2.36 Southwell - Carausis 10/11 :thumb 1st 4/7
2 outta 2 over CD , won a decent little handicap over track and trip lto and despite penalty should give a good account. Charlie Hills sends just this one today and has a 50% strike rate in past 14 days ,
6.00 Chelmsford - Bacule 15/8 :thumb 1st 6/5
1 from 1 over CD and comes into this in fine form in search of a four timer and entirely possible that he'll achieve it , won by a cosy length and a half lto and it could be that a 4lb rise wont stop him. George Rooke is 3/3 aboard the horse and retains the ride , hopefully go close here.
6.35 Chelmsford - Internationalangel 11/10 :thumb 1st 8/11 (25p R4 on EP)
Bang in form looking for the 5 timer , since going to Jane Chapple Hyams yard has won all 3 starts and despite going up 7lb i really do think he'll go close in achieving the 5 timer.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Decent enough day today one from the main bets placing , with a nice little drift to boot , and the short priced treble coming in , altho a 25p rule 4 on the EP bit into the profit a little , still cant grumble


Points Staked - 13 Points
EP +11.91
SP +8.53
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Friday 17th December

1.00 Southwell - Straitouttacompton 0.5 Point EW @ 6/1
STRAITOUTTACOMPTON comes into this in decent enough form , was a sound 4th last time at Newcastle but he has been off since , which is a bit of a worry as although he has won after a break before he's never won after a layoff of this length , however given the trainers current form (27% SR over past fortnight) im going to give him the benefit of the doubt and trust that he's ship shape and bristol fashion and ready to roll. Has an excellent record here at Shuvvel , 4 wins and a place from 8 runs , 4 wins from 6 over todays CD. Catches my eye that hes the sole CD winner in the race , hopefully that can give him somewhat of an edge over his opposition. As i stated before the trainer is in fair form and has a 13% strike rate at the track. Jockey Trevor Whelan (13% SR over past fortnight) takes the ride for the first time but im not too concerned as he's a competent enough jock imho. At the 6/1 on offer i think he's a decent enough each way shout.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Friday 17th December

1.00 Southwell - Straitouttacompton 0.5 Point EW @ 6/1 :thumb 3rd 17/2
STRAITOUTTACOMPTON comes into this in decent enough form , was a sound 4th last time at Newcastle but he has been off since , which is a bit of a worry as although he has won after a break before he's never won after a layoff of this length , however given the trainers current form (27% SR over past fortnight) im going to give him the benefit of the doubt and trust that he's ship shape and bristol fashion and ready to roll. Has an excellent record here at Shuvvel , 4 wins and a place from 8 runs , 4 wins from 6 over todays CD. Catches my eye that hes the sole CD winner in the race , hopefully that can give him somewhat of an edge over his opposition. As i stated before the trainer is in fair form and has a 13% strike rate at the track. Jockey Trevor Whelan (13% SR over past fortnight) takes the ride for the first time but im not too concerned as he's a competent enough jock imho. At the 6/1 on offer i think he's a decent enough each way shout.
 
Happy enough with that and once again the price drifted

Points Staked - 14 Points
EP +12.01
SP +8.88
 
Good place Sean but market spoke volumes with the massive gamble on the winner
 
Cheers ONEDUNME , didnt see the betting or the race tbh just checked the result

Nothing for Saturday 18th December , a few on my radar with the main pair being Regal Encore and Valtor in the 3.00 at Ascot , both might be old timers but i think either of them are more than capable of taking this on their day , but its too open tbh , alot of the runners come into the reckoning so gonna give it a miss
 
Nothing for Sunday 19th December , only one that seriously interested me was Follow Your Heart in the 2.00 at Kempton but i've just seen that its a non runner , so back to the drawing board and see what Monday brings
 
Nothing for Monday 20th December , 3 or 4 on the shortlist , most are far too short for me i'd be wanting more price wise tbh , the other is Pink Jazz , who does catch my eye but its a tight looking race and theres more cons than pros for me so leaving it alone , saving the ammo for a better day
 
Half the skill in making a profit at gambling is knowing when not to bet.

Not that I've got that kind of discipline lol
 
Back
Top