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ODM's Pretty Young Things

I was really waiting until some of the new young horses in my tracker cropped up but I think one of the older ones has a chance tomorrow. Currently 15/2 and although there are only 7 runners, I reckon you'll get over even money on it finishing in the first three on Betfair
 
Would probably help if I gave a name and a race eh? No matter, drifted to 10/1 and finished third
 
Well it is kind of traditional, yes. Maybe you could turn it into a competition though, guess the horse?
 
LOL. Good idea for a thread RC "Guess the loser"

I like it
 
Very early days in 2017 but my first tracker bet of the year popped up today. I backed it at 11/4 last night and it won at 9/4. I didn't post it because the flat season proper doesn't start until 1st of April this year and this is far too early. However, I have three new ones running tomorrow (backed at 9/4, 5/4 and 9/4) and if two of those happen to win (I'm not expecting them to) I will definitely start posting them up.

I will though point out that it may be worth keeping an eye on the market with regard to the only unraced horse in the 445 and Lingfield, Ulysses. Ralph Beckett has a 40% strike rate from his last ten horse and about a 50% ROI and about a 30% strike rate (and positive P+L figures) over the last year for both Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

Bishops Canning will go off favorite after two good runs in its first two races but the market might indicate that Ulysses is the one to be on.
 
Well that didn't go to plan at all. Of the three, one non runner and two duds. Right decision to keep the powder dry for now.

I've got two scribbled down for tomorrow but they both run in the same race at 6/4 fav and 2/1 second fav so no point in backing them. Just a case of watching the race an confirming that these two are learning and are going to improve but they can hardly be described as "under the radar" types.

Tricorn and Faience in the 545 Newcastle. No bet but I'd rather be on the second one at the prices. It's normal to start new horses at shorter distances and build up to further but Faience has already ran at a mile (tomorrow's distance) when running a cracking race to win at 8/1 last time out.
 
Tricorn drifted in the betting to a backable 9/4 and won comfortably. One to follow. In fact I'll make it the first one on my list for this season and keep adding to the post below
 
Ajman Princess Added 30/03/17 before odds on run next day. No bet

Bishops Cannings Added 21/03/17 before 645 Kempton next day but did not run
(see post 486, 496)

Codeshare - Added 21/03/17 before 230 Newcastle next day
Loss of 10pts as of 25/03/17
(see post 492)

Dreaming Time -Added 11/03/17 before 715 Chelmsford
Loss of 10pts as of 25/3/17
(see post 490)

First Moon - Added 11/03/17 before 350 WV 10pts 10/11
Loss of 10pts as of 25/03/17
(see post 490)
Full Intention - Added 29/03/17 before 240 wolves next day 15pts at 4/5. won. Profit of 12pts.
(see post 496)

Gnaad - Added 25/03/17 before 455 Ling 12pts at 5/4
Loss of 12 pts
(see post 495)

Shamrokh - Added 11/03/17 before 715 Chelmsford
Loss of 10pts as of 25/03/17
(see post 490)

Tricorn - Added 04/03/17 No bet yet as of 25/03/17
(see post 487, 488, 496)

Wick Powell Added 21/03/17 before 430 Newcastle next day
Loss of 12 pts as of 25/03/17
 
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Right, first bets of 2017. I was going to wait until they started running on the green stuff but I know (fear) I'll lose a couple of dozen winners between now and then so I'm starting today.

As is the way of these things, I inevitably end up with races with two or three of my tracker horses in them and I'm going to have to start off with one. Luckily they're not both joint favourites so it won't involve any coin tossing :thumb

715 Chelmsford. Shamrokh is the 9/4 fav (10pt win) and Dreaming Time is at 13/2 and drifting, so 5pts ew on that one. They're up against Mailshot which was one of my tracker horses last year and I'm pretty sure it bagged me a couple of wins last year (and actually won in January this year) but I've dropped it as it's out of the remit of this thread and probably not going to be profitable to follow.

Whoops, almost forgot the other one, First Moon 350 Wolves 10pts 10/11
 
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With Cheltenham over and the flat season just over a week away, I'm building up a head of steam to hit the ground running when the young horses start hitting the turf (with some older ones and some jumpers thrown in for good measure). Officially 30pts down from my first foray, I hope for (dare I say expect?) more success tomorrow and I've added three to my list in post 489 which I will be putting money on (unless I post otherwise) and hopefully posting up the details in advance. The list will be put into alphabetical order as we go so as to be more manageable but for now, the three for tomorrow are below. My nap of the day would be the first one which I put into my tracker after seeing it win on 17th of Feb. Unfortunately (for this thread anyway, not for me personally as I backed it) it couldn't wait for the flat season to get nearer and duly won next time out on 2nd of March (9/4 fav).

The last one on the list I must confess I'm not overly convinced about. It has run three times without scoring so far and I'll be keen to see tomorrow's race now that it should, in theory, know what it's supposed to be doing. I have a fear that it may turn out to be one of those serial losers that crops up and wins at 8/1 when you don't expect it to after you've backed it half a dozen times when it's been sent of fav.

Wick Powell is one that I put in my tracker last year after it beat my horse Mailshot (the same Mailshot that went and won a couple of weeks ago when I'd backed against it:lol). It came second by a neck in July at 6/5 after being backed by this thread at 5/2 and then an even more frustrating 2nd by a nose after being backed at 15/8. Then came one more loss before redeeming itself somewhat with a place at 25/1. A win at 5/1 early this month shows that there could be improvement to come this spring so it's worth a punt tomorrow.

Codeshare - 230 Newcastle next day 15pts at 13/8
Wick Powell 430 Newcastle next day 12pts at 5/2
Bishops Cannings 645 Kempton next day 15 pts at 11/8
 
Good luck ODM, i'll be looking in and following you on some (probably not what you wanted to hear) lol.
 
Punter said:
Good luck ODM, i'll be looking in and following you on some (probably not what you wanted to hear) lol.
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Go for it mate. If it's anything like previous years, be prepared for a slow start with profits coming between May and July (to Mid August) with profits tailing off towards the end of the season. It's pretty much been the pattern for the last decade or so and I'm hopeful that the trend will continue. With that in mind, I'm planning to increase stakes in May in order to milk the good times:crossfingers
 
Fuck! Thought I'd put this up last night but must have been distracted (old age creeping up on me?).

Gnaad (was 2/1 last night but now best price 5/4 so I'll use 12 pts at 5/4 for this thread, although I'm on it at 2/1)

455 Lingfield
 
Great start - no wins out of 6 so far and 64pts down. Bishops Cannings has come out and won since I put it up but the odds were ridiculously short.

Here's one that I put in my tracker after its first run last year. Full Intention 240 wolves tomorrow at 4/5. At the price you would think it would be nailed on but I'd warn against backing it (even though I have myself) because firstly, it's running again some unknown quantities in this bunch of 3 year olds and, secondly, it has failed to win a race since its first race which I thought looked so promising after a battling second. True it's placed in four out of six but greeness can't be held up as an excuse after six races and I can only hope it's wintered well and starts the season well. It could well be one of those frustrating horses to follow in handicaps because it tries too hard for its own good and won't get a break from the handicapper once it starts.

Dark Destroyer won at Wolves yesterday (won at 3/1 after drifting from 2/1). It was in my tracker, not for one to back or I would have put it up in this thread, but as one to watch as a comparison with Tricorn which I have put in this thread. Tricorn is at least as good as Dark Destroyer and Dark Destroyer and Dark Destroyer will be getting a rise in the handicap when it's reassessed. So what I'm saying is that you can assume Tricorn to have a rating of whatever DD is at (78?) in whatever its next race is.
 
Fuck me, a winner! How did that happen. Yep Full Intention won at a massive 2/5 (but I got paid at 4/5 so a 12 pt profit which cuts the loss so far down to -52 pts and 1 winner out of 7.

Anyone who followed last year might remember that I'll be aiming for a strike rate of around 40% for a profit and we may not start hitting that rate for another month or so yet but the season kicks in in two days so we will see what the turf brings.

If you think 2/5 is a shit price, you won't want to be backing Ajman Bridge at between 1/20 and 1/40 tomorrow. This is one from my tracker last year and I can't be bothered to look up the record last season but the prices suggests that's hardly a brilliant piece of deduction to think it may have a win or two under its belt this year:lol. No bet but I've added it to the list
 
Nice one ODM, good to get off the mark, onwards and upwards!
 
Did you back Elusive Approach ODM ? I missed it as i was working till 8.
 
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