Friday 14th April
7.00 Southwell - Hostelry 14/1 (Hills,Coral,BFred,Lads) - How Bizarre 13/2 (Hills,Coral,BFred,Lads)
Open looking handicap where , in all honesty , any of em could win , but for me a couple look as though they could go close .. first one is HOSTELRY who is making her re appearance after 182 days off , has gone well fresh in the past so doesnt bother me too much , and has run well on her sole try round here (3rd over 7f back in April 2022 , funnily enough her first run back after 166 days off). From her seasonal debut onwards she ran well last term and held her form well overall , only tailing off towards the end , so hopefully now is the time to take advantage , plus on the pick of her form she looks relatively well treated imo , and not too badly drawn either which is never a bad thing. Trainer Ruth Carr is in form , has a 16.7% strike rate over the last month , whilst Joanna Mason in the plate on her sole start of the day , hasnt won on the horse from her eleven rides but has placed seven times , so hopefully todays the day she nails that first win aboard the horse. When the trainer and jockey have teamed up over the past three weeks they have a 25% strike rate. If on song first time out then i think she'll go close. HOW BIZZARE is the other one i like in this , has been running well since coming back from a lay off back in January and has been there or thereabouts in most of his races since - 5,4,4,5,3,11,4,2,3 .. ran well enough over CD the last twice , especially unlucky on his penultimate run when second by a nose , beaten by Cavalluccio , seems to run well over todays CD , having had five runs , winning one and placing in a further three. The only thing thats a bit disconcerting is the fact that he hasnt won since 2020 , but given he's in decent form at the moment , and has won off higher than todays mark i think he can be given a chance in the hope he can gain a second win on the all weather. Liam Bailey brings just this one to the course this evening , and the horse has the able assistance of Danny Tudhope from the plate , has two wins and four places from twelve rides on the horse to date , and has a decent strike rate of 24.7% when coming here to Shuvvel , along with a profit of +£28.39. Should be involved come the finish.
4.30 Sedgefield - The Blame Game 13/2 (Hills,Coral,BFred,Lads) - Atomic Angel 7/1 (Hills,Coral,BFred,Lads)
A few look as though they could take a hand in this especially the CD winners , and i've gone for two of those who i think could out run there odds and give the favourite/second favourite something to think about .. the first of those is THE BLAME GAME who comes into this on the back of a game win here last time out when beating the re opposing Thatbeatsbanagher by 1/2 length. That one then won next time out so form looks okay. Has a 5lb rise now (off set by claimer) but looking at the horses form here , one from one over CD and three wins and a place from six runs overall , you couldnt discount him with any certainty. James Ewart brings just this one south of the border , and he has a 50% strike rate when bringing him here this term (and 26.1% overall) so you have to respect anything he sends here. Claimer Edward Austin helps to negate the 5lb rise , first time on the horse and he does fairly well when riding here with a 22.2% strike rate. Should be making his presence felt i think. ATOMIC ANGEL is the other horse that caught my eye , ran a very sound race when second at Hexham last time out , only losing out by 3/4 length , if she can replicate that run then she'd definatley be in with a shout here. Like the other selection seems to like it here with a win and two places from her five runs over this afternoons CD. Susan Corbett has a 22% strike rate over the last three weeks and sends just this one to the meeting , claimer DB Hurst takes off a handy 7lb and is also here for just this one , has a place from four rides on the horse , been in decent form of late with a 50% strike rate over the last three weeks. Should be thereorthereabouts imho.
2.55 Aintree - Hullnback 10/1 (Coral,Lads)
Should probably be leaving this race alone in all honesty , lets face it its Aintree , big fields , almost anything could win , but i really do fancy the chances of HULLNBACK who i think can go well at a decent price. Hasnt really put a hoove wrong since coming to the races in all honesty , won on debut , was then a decent enough 5th of 12 in a listed race , and was then a solid second (at the meeting last year) in a grade 2 bumper , had wind surgery and was put away , then ran a soild second on his re appearance , on hurdles debut and then went on to win his next two , the last of those by 91/2 lengths. I know others have run equally as well , if not better , but i like his overall profile and think he's an improving sort who can do himself justice in a race of this type. Going wont bother him which is a bonus and as i said ran well enough on his sole start here (second). Trainer and jockey had a winner here yesterday , and i think its interesting that Paddy Brennan is here just to ride this one (despite trainer having other runners) , has ridden the horse on all starts bar his last one and his record reads - two wins and two places from five rides , has a 33% strike rate in the last 21 days (and a 33.3% strike rate at Aintree this season) and when he and the trainer have paired up over the last three weeks they come away with a 29% strike rate. Trainer Fergal O'Brien is doing well at the course this term with a 23.1% strike rate and he knows the time of day , been amongst the winners lately , and i think that this one could well be another one for him.
2nd
1st 10/3 - Jems Bond 11/4 (365) 