S
Sean
Guest
Tuesday 18th April
5.30 Lingfield - Forge Valley Lad 13/2 (365,Hills,SkyBet) 1st 7/1
Open looking 8 runner race where a few look to hold chances but the one that catches my eye is FORGE VALLEY LAD who had been holding his form well until upped in trip last time out (to 2m) where he came tenth of fourteen , returned to 1m4f (where he had been running well over) will i think see him put in a better performance. In his previous 4 races his figures were - 1,1,2,3 (over 1m2f and 1m4f). His course record also catches my eye , seems to run well here at Leafy more often than not , overall at the course he has three wins and seven places from 16 runs , when you look at his record over todays CD its even better with two wins and two places from five outings , and to further point out his preference for todays kind of trip his record over it reads two wins and three places from nine runs. David Simcock brings just this one to the meeting , and he's done well with his runners here this season with a 32% strike rate along with a healthy profit of +£16.46 , and over the last three weeks hes managed to knock out a 14% strike rate. Jamie Spencer in the hot seat and he has two wins and two places from six rides , so knows the horse well enough , and like the trainer has done well here this term with a 32% strike rate and a profit of +£15.82. Considering his liking for the track and the trip i think hes well worth a go at the price on offer.
8.30 Southwell - Blackjack 9/2 (Hills,SkyBet) - Thismydream 11/2 (Hills,Skybet,Coral,BFred,Lads)
Couple catch my attention in this one , first one is BLACKJACK , who i did put up earlier on the thread but was then declared as a non runner , comes into this on the back of a solid looking second at Chelmsford last time out at the beginning of the month , beaten a neck by Shalaa Asker , that looked to be a stronger race than this one and im thinking he can regain the winning thread here. Aside from the odd iffy run thrown in hes been running consistently well since coming back from a 130 day break back in October '22 - 3,4,2,2,4,8,1,9,1,2 and i can see no reason why he shouldnt go well again this evening. Has a good record here over CD , from 4 runs he has 2 wins and a place. Trainer Alan Brown has a 20% strike rate over the last three weeks , and a 22.2% strike rate when sending them here this season whilst jockey Charlie Bennett comes here for just this one ride and has a win and a place from his two outings on the horse to date , doing well when coming here this term with a 16.7% strike rate. Should go well and i think at the 9/2 on offer hes well worth an interest. The other one i like is THISMYDREAM whose been ultra consistent since returning to action from a lay off back in December of last year - 4,2,1,2,2,2 .. been knocking on the door the last three times , not beaten far in any of them .. 1/2 length , 3/4 length and last time out 3/4 length .. despite running well hes only won the one race , over 5f here back in January , think he deserves another win for his consistency alone. Has never won over todays trip in twelve attempts , but has placed on five occasions. Hopefully he can rectify that tonight and come out in front. Michael Attwater not in the best of form but has been amongst the winners and he's one of those trainers whose runners you could never write off completely. Taylor Fisher comes here for this one ride , takes off a valuable 5lb which can only help , has ridden the horse twice before and been placed on both occasions. Been riding well at Shuvvel this season with a 33.3% strike rate alongside a profit of +£14.00. Think he's going to have to step up on previous efforts but hopefully can go well and give the principals something to think about.
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