S
SAMOAN
Guest
Just Joined you on Gerard Mentor at 5's. Missed the price on Lady Valentine, but do think she can run a nice race at 12's.
Tuesday 24th October
6.30 Wolverhampton - Age Of Time 6/4 (365)
AGE OF TIME won at the second time of asking , beating Time To Hunt by 3/4 length over CD , and i think theres every chance that he can go in again here this evening. He still looked a little green last time so i think theres every chance that theres alot of improvement to come with him and considering who hes with i think he could well rack up a sequence of wins. Trainer Charlie Appleby has an eyecatching 53% strike rate in the past fortnight , and has a 38.5% strike rate when coming here this term so anything he sends definatley warrants a closer look. William Buick in the saddle for the first time and hes here for just this one as well which didnt go un noticed , like the trainer hes enjoying a purple patch at the moment with a 31% strike rate in the past two weeks and has a 26% strike rate overall when coming to ride here. Trainer and jockey have a 61% strike rate when combining their talents over the last three weeks. Not my usual sort of price admittedly but (a) i think he'll win and (b) i think theres every chance that he'll be shorter come the off and that 6/4 could look a decent price.
4.40 Hereford - Gerard Mentor 3/1 (Hills,SkyBet)2nd
Like the chances of GERARD MENTOR in this one , had wind surgery back in August and came fifth of sixth on his re apperance run at th end of September , then followed that up last time out with a solid head second to Cawthorne Cracker (who runs in the 2.00 Exeter today) , those pair were a further 9 1/2 lengths ahead of the third home , that was his best effort for a while and if he can come into this in the same frame of mind then i think he'll be bang there when it matters. Has a 4lb rise to contend with but has run well off that kind of mark without winning before so i dont think it'll prove to much of a problem. Only ran here at Hereford once before , on his debut back in October 2020 , coming second. Class , distance and going are all good to go , and i think he holds a serious chance of coming home with his head in front. Trainer Kim Bailey has been in great form lately and the fact that he sends just this one out today caught my eye , has a 44% strike rate over the last couple of weeks and does well when sending his runners to Hereford with a 22% strike rate over the last five years. 7lb claimer Kai Lenihan is good value for his claim imho and he too is here for just this one ride , gets on well with the horse with three wins and a place from his nine rides.
Wednesday 25th October
7.30 Kempton - Jeff Koons 3/1 (365,Hills) - Al Agaila 9/2 (365,Hills)
Couple in this one stand out to me , first one of those is JEFF KOONS who arrives on the back of a solid effort at Ascot when a nose second to Metal Merchant. If reproducing that sort of form here tonight i can see him playing a part in the finish. Has been in decent form all season , being there or thereabouts everytime - 1,4,4,2,2. Only three and with his trainer being who he is i think theres some more to come from him. Placed on sole start over CD , and whilst he has yet to win in a class three he has placed both times hes competed in them and also ran well in a class two at York earlier in the season. John Gosden has just this one here this evening , and he has a 17.3% strike rate over the last month , whilst this season when coming here he has a 27.9% strike rate so anything he runs warrants respect. Jockey Robert Havlin onboard and he has a 10% strike rate in the last three weeks and has ridden the horse five times resulting in a win and three places. AL AGAILA is my other choice for the race , not been in great form since returning from a 134 days off but before that (end of last year , beginning of this year) did run up a sequence of three from three after a break , so couldnt discount her chances here despite running under par the last three times. One of those aforementioned wins came over todays CD making her one from one here over CD. The last three runs have all been on the turf whilst the three wins i mentioned were all on the all weather so i think there could be a chance that an improvement could be on the cards for the change of underfoot conditions or im hoping so anyway. First time contesting a class three but has won a couple of class twos so im not worried about that. Trainer sends just this one to the meeting this evening , and has been in decent form lately with a 21.6% strike rate in the last four weeks , and is doing well with his runners here this term with a 23.1% strike rate. Ben Curtis has been riding well and gets the ride for the first time , and has a 14% strike rate over the last five years when coming to Kempton.
6.30 Kempton - Urban Decay 5/2 (365,Coral,Lads)1st 6/1 (10p R4 on EP) - Chalk Mountain 3/1 (365,Hills,Coral,Lads)
Another race and another couple of selections ... first up is URBAN DECAY who was a 66/1 eighth of ten last time out in a class 2 at Newmarket , despite being down the field she was only beaten a little over 3 lengths , and as this looks a lot easier i think she can make her presence felt in these calmer waters. To be honest she seems to be better on the artificial surfaces than on turf with her record on the AW being a win and a second from three runs as opposed to nothing from two outings on turf. So i am hopeful of a much better showing here this evening , and also because shes dropping from a class two to a class five which should enhance her chances as well i think. Think she can go close here. Michael Bell has just this one here , and he has a 17% strike rate in the last fortnight , whilst jockey Saffie Osbourne in the plate for the first time. My other selections is CHALK MOUNTAIN whose been in good form since returning form 54 days off , was second on his return , beaten a neck by King Of Ithaca , and then won well last time out beating Surprise Picture by 2 1/4 lengths here at Wolverhampton. Like the other selection for the race seems to be better on the all weather and rarely runs a bad race on the artificial surfaces with a record of two wins , two seconds and a third from seven runs. I honestly cant see him being far away come the business end of things despite going up 6lb for that lto win. Stuart Kittow bang in form at the moment with a 23.8% strike rate in the last month along with a tidy profit of +£19.33 , so anything he runs at the moment is worth a second look , Rob Horny onboard for the eight time and so far he has two wins and a place under his saddle.
Saturday 28th October
1.15 Cheltenham - Notlongtilmay 10/1 (365)
NOTLONGTILMAY carries my wedge in this one , made hay last season after going to current trainers yard with three wins and a second , that second came in the Grade 1 Turners Novice Chase at the festival back in March , his last race of the season. He looked a decent sort when he was with Chris Gordon but since joining L Morgans yard he seems to have improved and hes taken the transition to the bigger obstacles in his stride. Been off since that festival second so obviously his well being has to be taken on trust but if hes fit and ready to roll then i think he can go well at a decent price and hes won twice after a break so to be honest im not that worried. Won over this trip back in November of last year at Wetherby and the ground shouldnt be an issue and hes dropping from a grade one to a class two. Adam Wedge here for just this one and on his sole ride to date he came second at that festival race and has a 27% strike rate over the last couple of weeks whilst trainer L Morgan hasnt been in the best of form it has to be said , but given the horses form to date and overall profile im willing to risk it at the current price on offer.
3.00 Cheltenham - Willaston 25/1 (365)- Jet Of Magic 22/1 (Hills,Coral,SkyBet,BFred,Lads)
Gonna side with two against the field in this one , both at nice prices so fingers crossed. WILLASTON is the first one , at the 25s on offer i think that hes well worth a go , has been in fine form since returning to the fray in March with figures of - 2,1,1,4 and he comes into this after a short break and having had wind surgery. One from one here at Cheltenham which i like to see , as i think course form here is essential (just my opinion). Ticks along side going , class and distance. Hasnt won from a mark this high but hes only seven so its entirely possible that theres more to come and at the price im willing to pay to find out. Mark Walford hasnt been in sparkling form lately but hes a trainer i rate and i cant see him sending just this one for a day out , and has a 14% strike rate here overall. Jamie Hamilton also arrives for just this one , gets on well with the horse having won on three of his four rides and has a 13% strike rate overall when coming here. My other selection is JET OF MAGIC who again i think is well worth a punt at the current price , comes into this on the back of a poor effort when third of four at Worcester on chase debut but i think now reverting back to hurdles a better showing could well be on the cards. This will be only his fourth start for Nigel Twiston Davies , having left Paul Nicholls yard for pastures new back in June , made a winning debut for his new stable , and was going well on his second outing when the saddle slipped and the rider was unseated , so all in all not done too bad thus far for NTD , so valid excuses can be made for his last two runs i think. Placed on sole start here at Cheltenham. You can never write off a NTD runner imho , and hes been in solid form with a 37.3% strike rate over the last four weeks , and has a 33.3% strike rate here this season. Jockey James Turner takes off a very handy 10lb , and this will be his first time on the horse , has a 100% strike rate in the last three weeks as does the trainer and jockey when theyve joined forces over the same period. Competitive looking race with some big powerful stables represented but i think at the prices on offer the selections are well worth a go to upset the 'bigger' names.
Monday 30th October
3.00 Huntingdon - Iolaos Du Mou 5/4 (365,Hills,SkyBet)
Nicky Hendersons IOLAOS DE MOU catches my eye in this one , yet to win over hurdles in three attempts but has come second in his last two runs , and he makes his handicap debut today off what looks a winnable mark so i think he can go close here. Probably needed that lto run after 130 days off and im pretty sure that he'll strip fitter for that outing here this afternoon. Second on only start here at the course , on his last run before taking a break. Trainer Nicky Henderson has been in decent form lately with a 33% strike rate in the last three weeks , and when coming here to Huntingdon he has an overall strike rate of 30% , so the fact that he sent just this one to the meeting caught my eye. Nico De Boinville also comes here for just this one ride , and like the trainer has been in good form lately with a 26.7% strike rate over the past month. Has ridden the horse on all five starts to date so knows him well , and when coming here he has a 24% strike rate overall. And when trainer and jockey have teamed up over the last three weeks they come away with a 30% strike rate.
Wednesday 1st November
2.38 Lingfield - Count Otto 20/1 (365)
At a nice price joint top weight COUNT OTTO catches my eye in this one , ran a poor race last time out at Goodwood but before that had been in good form with a couple of wins and a second , think coming back to Leafy where he seems to run a good race most of the time will see him in a better light , over this afternoons CD he has six wins and a place from seventeen outings , so definatley seems to like it here as i said. His last run here was back in March of this year when he beat Aberama Gold by a head at 40/1 , that was in a higher class and better race than todays and the fact that he comes into this only 1lb higher gives him a good chance i think. Has won off higher than todays mark as well. Draw doesnt look too bad to me , and the fact Amanda Perret has just this one at the meeting didnt go un noticed , has a 16% strike rate here this season and Rhys Clutterbuck on board for the second time looking for his first win on the horse.
3.38 Lingfield - Pablo Prince 12/1 (Hills,Coral,Lads)3rd
I think PABLO PRINCE could go well at a decent price , all three of his career wins have come here at Leafy and from his six outings over CD hes won three and placed in another one so think its fair to say that he seems to like it round here. Was eighth of eleven last time out at Kempton but probably needed that after being off for 181 days , and i think now he has that initial run under his saddle he'll strip fitter here and a better showing could well be on the cards. Trainer not in the best of form at the moment with a few losers on the board but given the horses liking for it here along with the price i'm willing to give it a go. Hayley Turner onboard for the first time , and she has a 10% strike rate here overall.
Thursday 2nd November
12.45 Lingfield - The Imposter 13/2 (Hills) Non Runner
Like the look of THE IMPOSTER in this one , made hay last season with figures of - 3,1,1,1,2,1,1,1 and i think theres a good chance that he may well pick up where he left off in April , certainly wouldnt bet against it. Have to take on trust that hes ready to roll first time up after 214 days off but given the price i think hes worth a punt. One from one over this afternoons CD , and two from two at the course overall. The soft (or heavy) going shouldnt prove to be a problem as most hos runs last term was on one or the other , except a couple which were on good-soft and overall he has six wins and two places from thirteen runs on the ground. Beat the re opposing Scamallach Liath at Ascot by a length and a half on his final start of last term and i think that he can get the better of that adversary once again. Trainer Nigel Hawke is someone i rate , and he has just this out at Leafy today and thats a fair old schlepp from Devon , and i cant see him sending him here on a sightseeing day out , whilst jockey Tom Buckley gets the steering job and he gets on well with the horse having ridden him all of last season making it six wins and two places from his eight rides to date , does well when coming here to ride with a 33% strike rate overall.