Discussion in 'Special & Novelty Betting' started by winrew, Aug 20, 2011.
ouch... so close...
Keep it going lads.
What a fecking set-up.
In a word.... FIDDLE!
1055: I'm excited about Saturday night, and not because a friend of mine has just turned 26 and is hosting a party. No, it's X Factor time once again and Little Mix remain market leaders with bet365 going a standout 21/10.
William Hill have been taken by the gamble and quote 15/8.
"We have never seen a plunge in price like this before and it could be the biggest X-Factor gamble ever landed should Little Mix win," said Hill's spokesman Joe Crilly.
"In the past favourites have always remained that way throughout the majority of the show but this year has been wide open and the girl group hold all the aces going into the final weeks."
Indeed four of the five remaining acts, with the exception being Misha B, have been favourites for the show at some stage.
Marcus Collins is now a general 5/2 chance while money has come for initial favourite Janet Devlin once again - she's 7/2 from 4/1.
Amelia Lily is 17/2 with Boylesports while Misha is a general 11/1 outsider.
The next elimination market doesn't quite reflect the outright betting, with Amelia shading favouritism at a general 2/1 ahead of 9/4 chance Misha - this is presumably because the layers think that Misha is less popular with the public, but more likely to be saved by the judges.
Janet is a 3/1 chance to be eliminated next with similar logic applicable - she's popular with the public but less so it seems with the panel - while Marcus and Little Mix would appear safe at 14s and 18s respectively.
Little Mix 2/1 (Bet365/Blue SQ)
Marcus Collins 5/2 (Boylesports/Coral/Ladbrokes/Paddy Power/Sportingbet)
Janet Devlin 7/2 (general)
Amelia Lily 17/2 (Boylesports)
Misha Bryan 12/1 (Bet365)
Little Mix are the new favourites. Meh. Absolutely bonkers. There is a need for a new girl band as the deluge of deathly dull boy bands is suffocating though. If they are to do well long-term, they'll probably have to win the show as I can't see them doing a JLS and doing well in spite of not winning. Proof that looks aren't everything?
Twelfth Elimination Odds:
Amelia Lily 2/1 (general)
Misha Bryan 9/4 (William Hill)
Janet Devlin 3/1 (Bet365/Betfred/Boylesports/Paddy Power/totesport/William Hill)
Marcus Collins 12/1 (Blue SQ/Boylesports/Coral/Paddy Power/Sportingbet/Stan James)
Little Mix 16/1 (Betfred/Ladbrokes/totesport)
To Be in the Bottom Two:
Misha Bryan 4/7 (William Hill)
Amelia Lily 4/6 (Blue SQ/Sky Bet)
Janet Devlin 6/4 (Boylesports/Paddy Power)
Little Mix 7/2 (Betfred/Boylesports/Sky Bet)
Marcus Collins 4/1 (Blue SQ/Sky Bet)
Who is this year's Tesco Mary and who is this year's Cher Lloyd? |It could very well be Amelia Lily vs. Misha Bryan, the only two of the five to have been in the bottom two and most punters probably do believe that is what will happen tomorrow night.
Non-believers will probably be hoping that Janet Devlin's Irish fanbase won't be enough (the best placed Irish contestant to date is Eoghan Quigg who finished third behind Alexandra Burke and JLS).
Misha looks as good as toast. The M&S advert switch was blatant and worthy of an OFCOM investigation of its own.
Looks like Little mix for plan A.
Little Mix - Song one didn't work for me and weakened their claim for Plan A. Song two was stronger, but still didn't tick all the boxes from my point of view. The emotion seemed far too contrived and I reckon some viewers will recognise that.
Janet - Song one has dreadful. She was bopping worse that Lena in the 2010 Eurovision. Worse still, she forgot the words to Hanson! Song two was equally dreadful. She killed the Chili Peppers.
Misha B - Song one was amazing. It was the Misha we were all blown away with and showed why she's such a hot raw talent. Song two didn't work in my opinion and could leave her exposed.
Marcus - Song one wasn't memorable and certainly not his best effort. Song two was off key for about a minute, but the later part of the song was good. Perhaps that may have rescued what was a poor week for Marcus.
Amelia - Song one was a very good solid performance, but song two seemed weak. Singing last may have helped her, but I can't help feeling that there's very little to like about her. She doesn't seem very warm, so there's not emotional connection.
My bottom two this week:
Janet. It's about time this droning biatch reacquainted herself with Ireland. They're voting for her, they can keep her!
Amelia. Just wasn't enough in her performances for me. Misha B was streets ahead of her tonight.
In the sing off, I expect Janet to go regardless of who she's pitted against.
Misha/Janet 6/4 (Betfred/Boylesports)
Little Mix/Misha 13/2 (Paddy Power)
Little Mix/Janet 10/1 (Boylesports)
Misha/Marcus 14/1 (Betfred/Boylesports)
Is Amelia Lily safe then? The odds and positive movers are all over the place though...
Updated Twelfth Elimination Odds:
Janet Devlin 8/11 (Bet365/Betfred/Boylesports/Paddy Power/totesport/William Hill)
Misha Bryan 10/3 (Boylesports/Coral)
Amelia Lily 11/2 (Bet365)
Little Mix 20/1 (Coral/Sportingbet)
Marcus Collins 33/1 (Coral/Paddy Power/Sportingbet)
Updated 'To Be in the Bottom Two' odds:
Misha Bryan 2/5 (Betfred/Blue SQ/Boylesports/William Hill)
Janet Devlin 8/15 (Boylesports)
Amelia Lily 7/4 (Boylesports/Sky Bet)
Little Mix 3/1 (Betfred/Boylesports)
Marcus Collins 8/1 (Boylesports/Sky Bet)
A disastrous performance from Janet Devlin has plunged her from 'possibly' to 'almost certainty' to go yet she's 'less' likely than Misha Bryan to be in the bottom two!? Is Janet's Irish fanbase really more strong than Tesco Mary's from last year!?
Everyone else except Amelia Lily has seen some positive movement to go.
If it's Misha vs. Janet, Kelly will vote to save Misha (y'know she will, girl!) and Louis will vote to save Janet (unless he wants to be persona non grata in Ireland) but who will Gary and Tulisa vote for!? I'd say they will vote 'tactically' and vote to save Janet who cannot possibly win now. Misha surely can't win either but she's the stronger of the two performers and thus a threat to Marcus and Little Mix.
There's no doubt now that they are doing all they can to get rid of Janet at the moment (mmmbop? Really?!) but they have yet to shift her into the bottom two, and I would imagine she will beat Misha tonight who just cannot build any sort of fanbase regardless of performance.
I think Amelia experiences the same issues re: connecting with the audience, and it's not a foregone conclusion that she will outpoll JD who might find that her shocking performance last night simply motivates her core fanbase even more.
If it's Mischa v Amelia...on past evidence the show is much more interested in MB.
Bet365. Let's see who votes for who then.
Louis - Janet (BACKSTABBER!!)
Tulisa - Janet
Kelly - abstained (COWARD!!)
Gary - would have voted for Janet
Janet is indeed gone through majority vote.
Mwah ha ha ha ha ha