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Antepost Soccer Betting/35% r.o.i

hotspur said:
rcgills there really is 1 thing above all else I must say very quickly from what I quickly saw:
That Brechin/Peterhead bet IS NOT really MY bet.Indeed I state close by(from memmory you understand) that personally I wouldnt be betting on that division for a couple of months at least.
I think is was Komp who stated that "all the value had gone from the win price."
THAT bet was what I therefore suggested to someone who wanted to bet on Peterhead and Brechin.
I myself had NO IDEA whether those teams were value.I was going by what Komp said.Hope you believe me!!
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Just checked, you're right, it was in reply to Basher.

So in that case, the only bet I can actually see you recommending is the Napoli back on Centrebet/lay on Betfair. It's true that anyone following you on that one could have secured themselves a 100% ROI, which is obviously impressive, but the fact that it would require tying up 50 times your original stake for the entire season mean it wouldn't really be worth it. Tying up £1000 to win £20 profit? You might as well stick it in the bank and wait for the interest. The situation would of course have been very different if Napoli had been available to back at 50/1 on Betfair.
 
rcgills,-If you are discounting things like betting on Fleetwood then YES,its quite POSSIBLE that people wouldnt have made 10%.
It would have been nigh on impossible to give actual stakes to bet cos most people dont want to do a long-term bet in August.

Lets try to make this easier-IF you do not believe that people would have made a 10% profit from the advice I gave on the DP,then,because I believe you to be fair,I will not argue the point.
What I would ask is that you at least believe me when I say that I was(and I guess still am) GENUINELY under that impression.
 
As far as this "gambling is easy" statement that I made ie "I can make 10% roi in my sleep",I would like to say that I believe I have TRIED to apologise for that and,since rcgills can read the DP could I PLEASE ask him to post on here the conversation I had with,I THINK-not sure,someone called punter/or similar in which I try to inform a newbie that soccer betting is hard...and whoever it was(actually sorry,it COULDNT have been punter) actually says that they make 15% roi,and that they find it EASY and I reply,
"wow,15% makes you one of the best"

I realise youre busy rcgills but its very relevant
 
If it helps,I hotspur,hearby do state on betnod....that making a profit from football betting IS NOT EASY
 
As I said, for the most part all I see on TDP is lots of "shouldn't be this big", "should go close", "certs for playoffs", etc. In my book those are opinions, they don't look like attempts to recommend any kind of bet.

In fact, I'd say I'm also being pretty generous in including Napoli, seeing as you recommended it as the "best value price on any team in gb and europe right now", and yet you weren't prepared to back them yourself. If they were such great value in your opinion, why weren't you prepared to back them yourself?

So basically we've got lots of opinions and comments, but little in the way of solid recommendations. Like it or not, and it's nothing personal against you, people on a gambling forum are bound to be judged by their results. Yorkie proclaims himself to be the best gambler in the world. Do we just believe him? No, because he's proven on here and TDP time after time to be full of crap and seems to have a gambling addiction.

As I've said before, you've got no reason to prove anything to us if you don't want to. You can't have it both ways, though, and if you want to be able to claim that people following your tips can make 10%+ ROI, you need to do a bit more to prove it than simply post up a few comments and opinions.

Like Wayne said, you had the chance to prove yourself in this thread if you want to, but you keep going off on tangents and then wonder why people call you up on it all the time. If you don't have the time or the inclination to provide hard evidence to back up your claims, that's fine. But any time you claim to be providing people following your tips with a 10% ROI, I (and I suspect Wayne and Seen among others, if this thread is anything to go by) will call you up on that. Otherwise it's unfair on anyone reading who may be new to the forum and believe everything they read.
 
Wayne brings up the £15,000 thing and so I would like to ADD 2 things to my "defence"which I didnt mention at the time.

Wayne accepts that I was defending LMC tipster.great.BUT I was also defending Victor Chandler!!
All I ever read on the internet is how VC bans everyone but he didnt ban me and I am grateful.
Wayne said that I should have just said "I made a profit from VC and he didnt ban me"!

But I wouldve felt like I was insulting your intelligence if I wrote that!SURELY noone on betnod thinks that VC wouldve banned EVERYONE making ANY profit?
It seemed to me entirely necessary to post the amount.
But also,I had ALREADY,and ODM might somehow remember this cos he replied,stated on another thread that,at the end of the season I needed to hedge an antepost acca and it so happened that VC were the best price(on Wigan to win at Stoke)so I bet quite a lot on Wigan..but I was also busy with other bets so I got a friend to place some bets.......and,even though my friend won less money HE got banned...and I didnt!!(actually that STILL makes me laugh!
The point is that I only won on VC cos another bet lost.I didnt even want to win on VC but I had already mentioned the UNUSUAL circumstances so didnt think twice about subsequently mentioning the amount.
 
OMG rcgills the reason I didnt back Napoli is that,BELIEVE IT OR NOT,I was attempting to "give it"to someone who needed the money more!
If you dont believe that,then also I knew the company would only take a small amount at those odds and ALSO I sort of specailise in accas
 
hotspur said:
As far as this "gambling is easy" statement that I made ie "I can make 10% roi in my sleep",I would like to say that I believe I have TRIED to apologise for that and,since rcgills can read the DP could I PLEASE ask him to post on here the conversation I had with,I THINK-not sure,someone called punter/or similar in which I try to inform a newbie that soccer betting is hard...and whoever it was(actually sorry,it COULDNT have been punter) actually says that they make 15% roi,and that they find it EASY and I reply,
"wow,15% makes you one of the best"
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Anyone can read TDP, you know :thinking

http://www.thedailypunt.com/forum/general-betting-talk/128324-things-consider-when-betting.html

And yes, you did apologise about the 10% in your sleep thing. But we're going round in circles again - if 15% is such a great ROI, and you're sorry for claiming 10% was so easy, why start on here going for 35%, and then start again on another forum going for 60%?
 
hotspur said:
OMG rcgills the reason I didnt back Napoli is that,BELIEVE IT OR NOT,I was attempting to "give it"to someone who needed the money more!
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That's it, I've had my doubts for a while, but I think you've just officially gone into "wind-up merchant" territory for me :talkhand
 
Okie Dokie rcgills,no problem.

I have already made it clear that I wont be claiming to have any kind of gambling ability on betnod from now on.(after this post hopefully!)

There isnt really much more to be said I think youll agree.

I would like to make a kind of general remark,
sometimes people say what they think a pro gambler would or would not do.
I only know what I do,I have already explained that the reason that I frequent forums is because a (small)part of the book I am trying to write is about gambling forums.

Any other thing that I do that,apparently,is weird/not done/suspicious etc is I guess,as was stated/implied down to my character.What can I say!?

THANKS for not mentioning how pathetic I am and I apologise sincerely that I was unable to prove myself on here when I had the chance.

btw,I suspect that my bets on this thread will probably LOSE........but what do I know

Good Luck everyone
 
Right, so an ante-post gambler turns down the best value ante-post bet in all of Europe in a selfless gesture to help those in need. Give me a break :lol

Of course, some might say it could be seen as a further sign of arrogance that you assumed those people "needed the money more".
 
rcgills said:
Anyone can read TDP, you know :thinking

http://www.thedailypunt.com/forum/general-betting-talk/128324-things-consider-when-betting.html

And yes, you did apologise about the 10% in your sleep thing. But we're going round in circles again - if 15% is such a great ROI, and you're sorry for claiming 10% was so easy, why start on here going for 35%, and then start again on another forum going for 60%?
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Well they are 2 very different things rcgills.
You see the reason that I (claim)to be able to make more than 15% is because,

a) I am doing antepost bets rather than betting on results/goals etc

b) I am multiplying my edge by the judicious use of accumulators

accumulators are notoriously difficult to profit from on actual games but not necessarily on antepost bets...as Wayne has shown
 
rcgills said:
Right, so an ante-post gambler turns down the best value ante-post bet in all of Europe in a selfless gesture to help those in need. Give me a break :lol

Of course, some might say it could be seen as a further sign of arrogance that you assumed those people "needed the money more".
Click to expand...

rcgills please can you tell me why you have such a hard time believing that?are you SO cynical.

IT IS TRUE,I ABSOLUTELY PROMISE YOU
 
well if someone wants to suggest that its a sign of arrogance that I assumed they needed the money more,then I guess the next time I wont leave it.
I spose thats partly why we live in such a shitty world
 
hotspur said:
rcgills please can you tell me why you have such a hard time believing that?are you SO cynical.
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Yes.

And if I were a gambling man :lookaround, I'd have money on it that if we were to put it to the vote on here, I'd be in the majority. Quite apart from anything else, I'd hope that anyone gambling on things like that wouldn't be in a position where they could be described as "needing the money". Possibly a rather naive hope, admittedly, but in any case, if anyone who did need the money was betting on things like that, it probably wouldn't be wise to encourage them. Far be it for me to tell you how to help others, but wouldn't you have been better off backing them yourself and giving the winnings to charity if you really wanted to help someone who needed it?

One last question for you - why the constant obsession with a specific target for your ROI? Why not just stick your bets up, and see what ROI you've made by the end of the season. No pressure to meet any targets, no accusations (justified or otherwise) of arrogance for setting yourself a particular target, etc., and at the end of the season you could justifiably claim to have helped anyone following you to win x% ROI.
 
Well rcgills,forgive me for pointing out that pro gamblers are the kind of people who usually find themselves in the minority.
As far as I remember,I actually say that I am leaving the bet for someone in the morning.
If you are telling me that most betnod members cant work out the implications of that,then I dont know what to say.

First of all,if I dont specify an roi,I believe fewer people would actually do the bets.
I dont want to explain that if thats ok but,anyway,its not the most important reason.

The main reason for specifying the roi before I start is because I am doing accumulator bets.
And the problem with using accumulators is that it can appear as if you are lucky when you win.
I have been doing these bets for 14 years and almost every time,by their very nature,they go to the wire and,in particular,only 1 wins big.
And this big win will almost always "come in" on the last game.
But if you have said you are gonna make x% and thats what you get near enough,then it suggests that you may well have known what you were doing.
 
I forgot the question about doing the Napoli bet myself and giving the money to charity.

I must admit,I find the question a bit bemusing-"would I have been better off.....etc"
I confess I am stumped:eek:.

I guess I have to admit that I tend to do whatevers easiest rcgills-but my charity of choice wouldve been compassion in world farming so I guess no person wouldve been better off.:)
 
You first mentioned Napoli's price on the 19th July. You were still going on about it 3 days later on the 22nd, saying you were going to take it soon, "if only to know how much they'll take". What the implications of that are, I've no idea, feel free to enlighten us.

Your posts read like one big excuse after another as to why you can't post things on here - people wouldn't believe you, people wouldn't follow the bets, people would think you got lucky, etc. etc. It's getting boring, to me anyway, so I'm finished with this conversation.

I've got far more respect for someone like LMC Tipster who still keeps coming back week after week despite being some 400pts down after (according to him) 5 (??) successive years of profit, than I have for someone who makes all kinds of claims but isn't prepared to put their money where their mouth is.

I wish you luck with your bets, wherever you choose to place them (and that includes here on Betnod if that's where you choose).
 
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