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Archi said:
I'm way over my limits anyway on a single bet, so who cares if I go a bit more overboard? Took some more of Ireland NOT to qualify 6.0 @ paddypower. It's going to be agonizing :)
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Hehe. I actually had me a wee 0.5pts as well - you talked me into it ;)
 
Hi guys,first of all Id like to thank you all for what imho is without doubt the most fascinating thread on betnod.
I really had no idea that there are people putting so much thought and knowledge into Eurovision!
Over the last few years Id simply read what Mcgovern(Daily Mirror)has to say and bet his selection e/w along with the fave!
Anyways,thanks to all this FREE info.my interest has been well and truly peeked(?)and I have set aside a nice little bank to thrash the bookies with,:).
I dont spose one is able to bet in running on the night is one?Thatd be great fun.
Is there any value at all in Swedens price-presumably they are value for a place?
Realistically,how much can someone get on with say coral.
Hopefully you can answer those questions for me.
The question I am most intrigued to know will presumably remain unanswered ie how much you guys make from eurovision-I assume that precisely because the bookies will know there are such well-informed people the limits are too small to win that much?
Whether you answer these questions or not,thanks once again.
To help people bet knowledgably on Eurovision without them having to listen to any of the songs is a noble calling,indeed:beer
 
Thanks Hotspur. Punter sometimes drifts over too... like a day before Eurovision and hoovers up 5 months of work :lol

You're a bit late for value on Sweden. You can make your own mind up as to whether you think Sweden is a strong enough prospect to win the competition. The internet buzz and odds seem to suggest another 'Rybak-type' favourite, but there are other strong acts and factors to consider.

The issue with Sweden is the strength of Norway and Iceland. Iceland is the stronger, but Norway is a similar genre. Both are voting allies too, and could therefore split the Scandinavian vote.

If you want some value on the outright market, I would listen to the following: Azerbaijan, Serbia, Italy, Romania, Iceland and Germany, whilst also popping over to escbet.com to read up on the strategy articles.

Typically, there's more money to be made in the non-winner markets. You've shown interest just in time to get involved in the semi-finals. Again, have a good read of the forums here and comments over at escbet for any apparent value.
 
"I dont spose one is able to bet in running on the night is one?"
- Do you mean can one bet while the contest is on? if that is what you are asking, the asnwer is yes. At least @ betfair. But you need to be fast and knowledgeable to get good prices, I bet there are lots of people constantly looking at the odds. Also, I think while the contest is on one gets better prices by laying, not buying. Not sure of this, but that's how I feel. I remember when Germany won and they started to give out points. Germany got a bad start, and their odds rose quite a bit. But of course the odds plummeted soon enough.

Is there any value at all in Swedens price-presumably they are value for a place?
I would say no. BetVictor is giving quite good odds right now W/O sweden, and I think that is better market right now. Now since a lot of bookers have had eurovision odds for quite some time it's hard to get great prices. when they start to put up odds a lot of bookers seem to make some mistakes, and you need to be there during the first or second day after they release the odds. Like Unibet gave 1.35 for Iceland to qualify, and same 1.35 for Greece to qualify. Bwin gave 1.25 for "nul points in final" and I got that for quite a bit. These are small odds, but all of the mentioned ones have huge value anyways. Right now "nul points" is going at 1.07. Find a lot of bets with good value and your ROI is going to be decent almost no matter what happens. I think you are a bit late right now when it comes to getting good prices for outright win. A lot of bookers have not released their top10 or top4 betting, but when they do try to be alert. There is bound to be some good prices out there

The question I am most intrigued to know will presumably remain unanswered ie how much you guys make from eurovision-I assume that precisely because the bookies will know there are such well-informed people the limits are too small to win that much?
My ROI has been everything between 32%-380%. I made my first bets for fun in 2006 when Finland won, and won every year since. It's hard to lose at this, since like I stated before, bookers do make mistakes. Best year was when Serbia won. I was so sure of their win that I put way more on them than what I usually do for any single outright bet. That was a fun night for sure :) Last year was actually my worst with 32% ROI which I wasnt too happy with. I made a few huge mistakes. I'm still kicking myself for not making a deposit before finals to bet Ukraine to top4. I figured it's a great bet, but didnt bother to deposit anymore and meh... Still mad at myself for that.

Hope this helps, and welcome to the board :)
 
Thanks Hotspur. Punter sometimes drifts over too... like a day before Eurovision and hoovers up 5 months of work :lol
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:lol

I best 'get on' now, now you mention it. I'll go read up.
 
I've missed the boat with Sweden so..

Italy @ 12/1 S.James
Iceland @ 22/1 W.Hills
Azerbaijan @ 66/1 W.Hills

3 x 2.5pts EW on each, all 1/4 odds, 4 places.

When's the Final?
 
Wow,thanks for these answers-a lot to take in.I will certainly take a keen interest in the market without Sweden and top 4 markets.
Now,I just need to organise a Eurovision party:dance !
 
hotspur said:
Now,I just need to organise a Eurovision party:dance !
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I've always wanted to have a Eurovision party, but I just think I'd be bad company when there's so much money riding on the outcome. You're there trying to concentrate on the finer points of each performance and your mates are busy talking about a pair the performer's tits or a footy game from the weekend. No way can I put up with that.

For me, Eurovision nights are spent alone in front of the TV with a laptop checking the markets accompanied with a steady flow of tea or peroni.
 
Gavster said:
I've always wanted to have a Eurovision party, but I just think I'd be bad company when there's so much money riding on the outcome. You're there trying to concentrate on the finer points of each performance and your mates are busy talking about a pair the performer's tits or a footy game from the weekend. No way can I put up with that.

For me, Eurovision nights are spent alone in front of the TV with a laptop checking the markets accompanied with a steady flow of tea or peroni.
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I have a decent amount riding on eurovision every year as well, but it's also lots of fun for me. I usually watch it with friends and some beer. And I can still concentrate on performers tits even with the money riding :) I usually also do some last minute bets during the finals, more for fun than anything else, and nothing big since I am under influence afterall :p I have my bigger bets made before the first song during finals, and I realize I might lose some value by not constantly checking the odds while the final is going, but I also want to enjoy it. It is a lof of fun afterall, and at the end of the night I usually have won some money so it's all good. I can live with a little value lost.
 
Bets placed so far,in pounds shilling and pence,
Italy 160ew at 16/1 ,1/4 a place traded a lot, running this almost free..
Greece 80ew 28/1 1/4 a place
Romania 70ew 41/1 1/4 a place
Romania top ten 83 ,2.22
GREECE V uk 94 2.1
Short Sweden 360 3.20 will trade out at some point.
 
Welcome to the dark side DB! Just for your information, on both sites, we post bets in a points system of 1-10; 1 being speculative and 10 being full throttle.

For example:

2pts Slovakia to qualify - 3.4 @ Bwin (not real)

What this does is level the playing field in terms of pro and amateur gamblers, but it also illustrates your level of confidence. Also, please try and mention the bookie when possible, so others can find the same bet.

Cheers & welcome! :thumb
 
Gavster said:
Welcome to the dark side DB! Just for your information, on both sites, we post bets in a points system of 1-10; 1 being speculative and 10 being full throttle.
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Wow, I had no idea that was the scale :) I figured you went by the 100pts bankroll scale, ie 1pt being 1% of the roll. No idea where I got that from though.

You must have thought me veeeery cautious :)
 
No squall... I think we're all well aware of your big pockets.
 
I bet way over my head on eurovision. Too big of a portion of my net worth is riding on Eurovision, but somehow I'm OK with it. Maybe because I havent gotten burned, not yet at least. And maybe my confidence level is high because of this. Maybe once I get burned badly I start to ease on the bets a bit, but for now I'll go with it. It's strange, because I usually dont take big risks on any other form of gambling, but this is different. I cant explain it, that's just how it is :p
 
hotspur said:
Arch,Archi,Archi-youve just become my fave poster on betnod:)
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Heh, thanks :p Because I'm stupid enought to bet rather big (big for me) on something as... trivial(?) as Eurovision :) It's my guilty pleasure, I cant explain why I enjoy it as much as I do. Semifinal nights, as well as final night is always quite agonizing, but also lots of fun! Looking forward to it! :p
 
Gavster said:
Welcome to the dark side DB! Just for your information, on both sites, we post bets in a points system of 1-10; 1 being speculative and 10 being full throttle.

For example:

2pts Slovakia to qualify - 3.4 @ Bwin (not real)

What this does is level the playing field in terms of pro and amateur gamblers, but it also illustrates your level of confidence. Also, please try and mention the bookie when possible, so others can find the same bet.

Cheers & welcome! :thumb
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Thanks for the info Gavster,presumed you used a 100% bank so your 1 points 2 points etc were % of bank,il punish myself with a listen to Georgia to remind me .
Recap then

Italy 8ptsew
Romania 4ptsew
Greece 4ptsew,

Today another 7pts uk v GREECE 11/10 @StanJames.
 
squallsquall said:
Wow, I had no idea that was the scale :) I figured you went by the 100pts bankroll scale, ie 1pt being 1% of the roll. No idea where I got that from though.

You must have thought me veeeery cautious :)
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I fell into the same proverbial trap Squall,we are just so damned traditional arent we.Rumours Greece are going for 2 male 2 female dancers and have little money for the show,and Romania are putting lights onto the accordian and bagpipes,
anyway,im now looking for the 1st semi bets.Just want a bit more on the stage shows before i pull the trigger.
 
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