Eurovision Song Contest Betting 18th - 22nd May 2021

[Beanie]

Hope the ears are clearing up Slick, although blocked ears might be preferable for some of these

I've been trading the markets for a few months, but first bet on here:

Azerbaijan Top 10 @ 3.60.

I think this one is flying under the radar a little, and reminds me a little of Cyprus in 2018. I'm not suggesting this is likely to repeat Cyprus' result, but as with Fuego it's an unremarkable, but radio friendly number that most importantly is so uncomplicated that it should be straightforward to stage and look striking even in a half empty arena. Also expecting significant use of backing track vocals to cover up any live performance blemishes.

Will look to trade this one back off if the staging disappoints, as that's where this one will live or die.

 

[Jezza]

Hi Guys,

Great to see you all in here and great to see the Eurovision back, really missed it last year. Looking forward to the best night of punting that there is.

San Marino- Senhit - Adrenalina
Ehhm, reminds me of holidays in Turkey.
Catchy, bit of a miss mash of middle/eastern European and a bit of rap thrown in for good measure.
I'd say this is a qualifier.

I backed this 50/1 EW (4 places) on Denise, also took it top 10 @ 2.86 on the exchanges. Never know. I did also back Switzerland @ 6/1 but not so sure about that one now

I like to oppose the favourite generally and the ESC is no exception. Doesn't seem particularly strong this year.

 

[Beanie]

Hey Jezza, hows it going? You still playing much poker?

Is a real shame that it's not a normal Eurovision - my favourite time of year is furiously refreshing Youtube/twitter to get the first look at the rehearsals and then jumping on the Betfair markets. Hopefully still get some good action this year but remains to be seen how it works given that most of the press aren't in Rotterdam.

I think the juries might kneecap the chances of San Marino this year but it's definately one im awaiting the staging for - the video was a lot to take in so keen to see which theme they go with (and if Flo Rida makes an appearance in Rotterdam )

Rehearsals start tomorrow - schedule below. Fairly low key start, Russia perhaps the most interesting of these from a betting perspective. Lithuania and Sweden unlikely to produce any staging surprises:

Also, couple of fan club votes(OGAE - poor record, and Euro Jury - picked both the last 2 winners, albeit both solid pre-show favourites) just completed, both producing the same 1-2-3 - Malta, Switzerland, France)

 

[slick]

Ears are no better , worse if anything as It was getting me that mad I tried to dig out wax with an earbud and pushed the bastard further down, over a week now putting drops in them and fcuk all has come out.
looks like I'll have to pay somebody to syringe them or whatever.

Anyhow onwards and upwards to finish off the 2nd semi.....

Poland - RAFAŁ - The Ride
Quite Catchy although like Beanie says a bit Synthy.
I don't mind it, grows on you the more you listen to it.
not a contender for the overall winner but could break out of the semi into the final.

Czech Republic - Benny Cristo - omaga
With a name like Benny Christo what could possibly go wrong..
Not so bad really, but I'm watching a video of it with Benny in a blizzard, need to see it live as it might sound and look very bland if he's just stood on stage singing it.
I like this, has a bit of the Timberlakes about it, Tell you what I didn't expect this from the Czech's , I'm gonna put this on my overall shortlist.
Saying that, sounds like something the UK would put out that the rest of Europe just don't get.
The more I think about it, I think it'll get to the final but fall short overall.

Latvia - Samanta Tina - The Moon is Rising
This is doing my sore ear no favours.
it's just noise with a bit of 'whoo way' thrown in now and again for good measure.
There are parts of the song that sound good but it goes off way too many times at a tangent to absolute shite.
Nice crotch action though so it wasn't a complete fail.
No chance of reaching the final imho.

Portugal - The Black Mamba - Love Is On My Side
Has a bit of the 'Simply Reds' about it.
Beanie say's dead as a Dodo but I actually like this and think this is one of the better songs I've heard in this semi.
I'd go as far to say this could be in with a chance of the overall.
I'll post up the vid so I can listen to it again when sober lol..

Georgia - Tornike Kipiani - You - Georgia
Slow Ballad.
Rather depressing tell the truth but everyone deserves a chance so I'll carry on listening.
not the worst song in the world but the Tornike is struggling with the high notes.
The song also ends abruptly which is not good for anybody judging the song that is in two minds about it.
A no from me.

Well that's the 2nd semi done, After I've had a piss we'll get onto the big players.

 

[slick]

France - Barbara Pravi - Voilà
At least it sounds French lol, I'm only saying that because most of the others have lost their traditional sound and all sound pretty much westernised.
Sounds like something out of a musical but can't say I'm blown away as much as Beanie is.

I'm listening to it again to see what the hype is all about, even the remarks on youtube are blowing it out of the water, this is my first mistake I know as it's the first song I've listened to where I've read the comments afterwards.

OK it's a classic sounding French song, sounds like something from the past, aka Marlene Dietrich.
I get it and I don't, would we have a better chance if we entered a Vera lynn soundalike, no I don't think we would.

The problem this song has is that Western Europe can probably relate to it but I don't think Eastern Europe will.
It's good and worth shortlisting but I have a feeling it could be like Marmite to a lot of countries.

Germany - Jendrik - I Don't Feel Hate
First impressions are that it looks a bit Woke.
Now there's a bird turned up pushing a sofa with a bloke and guitar into a launderette with what look like a big cock stuck to the top of her head.
Still waiting for the intro.
Hey up, it's a modern day George Formby.
This fcuking thing wouldn't get out of any of the semi's.
First one I've turned off half way through, absolute garbage.

 

[slick]

Italy - Måneskin - Zitti E Buoni
Italian Rock bordering on grunge, this is a novelty.
I'm trying my best to like it but I just can't, for as hard as they try it's just not rock.
Having a cockroach on an eyelid is not exactly biting the head off a bat .
It's just not working, they ain't heavy enough, nor do they look it.
In Rock music, 'the look' is everything.
bag of shite imo


Spain - Blas Cantó - Voy A Quedarme
Intro sounds like another slow Ballad.
Quite nice and middle of the road, has a bit of the Enrique Iglesias about it.
Good vocals, I like this, just as I say that he starts wailing.
If he get's that wailing right on the night I think this stands every chance.
Another I'll post up so I can listen to again as it's now on my shortlist...

 

[slick]

UK - James Newman - Embers
My first listening to this.
Intro fine, nice and bouncy as we get into the song.
Nah nothing special, same old, same old.
I've heard better when we've finished last.
This would struggle to get out of any of the Semi's.
Shite!!

Netherlands - Macrooy - Birth Of A New Age
Has a bit of an African touch.
Started off a bit lame but picking up now.
First song I've listened to where I want to listen the lyrics.
Now it's starting to sound like a song out of the Lion King.
I love this song, another I'll post up to listen to again as I think it has top 5 potential.
My only problem with this type of song (not going into detail) is Eastern Europe, who still need educating on the subject. which means it probably has no chance of winning.
Vocals on this imo blow all the other songs out of the water.

 

[Beanie]

Rehearsals Day 1 a low key affair as expected, without any significant market moves.

Brief Summary:

Lithuania: Staging similar to national final. Quirky dance moves remain - probably offputting for the juries.
Slovenia: Good vocal, uninspiring visuals. Still struggling for the Q.
Russia: Manizha emerges from an enormous dress after the opening minute. Memorable atleast, but likely too jarring for western audiences. Still have this upper mid table in the final.
Sweden: As per national final, with some lighting and clothing changes. Solid, but uninspiring.
Australia: Will be using a pre-recorded live performance on the night, so not rehearsing. Snippet of that performance looks dark.
North Macedonia: Similar to Slovenia - unimaginative staging to go with unimaginative ballad.
Ireland: Post apocalyptic staging, post apocalyptic vocals. The only interesting market move was this one drifting significantly in the To Qualify market.


Snippets available on the official site: https://www.youtube.com/c/EurovisionSongContest/videos

Tomorrow's schedule below - all eyes on Cyprus and Malta

 

[Jezza]

Hey Jezza, hows it going? You still playing much poker?

Is a real shame that it's not a normal Eurovision - my favourite time of year is furiously refreshing Youtube/twitter to get the first look at the rehearsals and then jumping on the Betfair markets.

Thanks Beanie, I only play poker recreationally now (back in the days when we could play live and have a few beers :( ). Stopped full time around 2014. Do you still play at all?

Yes I love Eurovision as well, definitely my favourite night of betting all year. Was gutted last year that it didnt go ahead. Is it a much reduced audience this year?

Thanks for the entry reviews to both you and Slick. I see Malta drifted and France are now favourites. Switzerland in the mix but my San Marino punt is going tits up already

 

[Beanie]

Not much poker for me anymore mate. While at uni I had hours and hours to dedicate to multitabling and get engrossed in it - after that playing for a couple of hours here or there doesn't grab me all that much. Once restrictions lift I think I'll be the same as you, the odd game with mates or live tournament.

Yes, audience will be a few thousand for all the shows this year. I don't think we will feel too much difference on the night - in the last decade Eurovision has focused more and more on made for TV angles and graphics, and the live audience isnt particularly important to the experience (you can usually barely hear them!) I went over to Lisbon for Eurovision in 2018 and a lot of the songs just look plain wierd in the arena.

Outright market saw a little action today, mainly on the basis of the Malta rehearsal:

The outfit is a car crash - i'd expect a slight further drift if there's no change for those. Still a contender but looks beatable with that staging. Enormous pain as I have some bets at reasonable odds from when the song as released.

Brief Summary of today:

Cyprus: Staging complements the song - professional and slick, even if it may be a bit provocative for some juries/televoters.
Norway: Staging as per national final - I'm not convinced this is qualifying, but the televote should just carry it through.
Croatia: Looks slick and the staging fits the song well. Have this going through safely now.
Belgium: This will live and die with how it looks on camera. Reports from the press are that it slightly misses the mark and doesnt hold the attention for the 3 minutes.
Israel: Another upbeat song, another gaggle of backing dancers. Press reports for this one muted but I like the visuals. Had this as a non Q originally but staging may drag an average song through.
Romania: Really nervous rehearsal today and didnt sound good. Song sits well in an upbeat semi but massive improvement needed. Adding this to my outright lays as I dont think it can win from here.
Azerbaijan: Slightly disappointing staging for this - expected something with more identity than a dark stage and fairly standard choreography.
Ukraine: The big winner of the day - looks like a lesson in good staging. Memorable and fits the song perfectly. Now sailing through to the final.
Malta: As above

Tomorrow's schedule:

Interested to see what San Marino, Greece, and Moldova bring. The others should be quite predictable.

 

[Beanie]

Azerbaijan Top 10 @ 3.60.

I think this one is flying under the radar a little, and reminds me a little of Cyprus in 2018. I'm not suggesting this is likely to repeat Cyprus' result, but as with Fuego it's an unremarkable, but radio friendly number that most importantly is so uncomplicated that it should be straightforward to stage and look striking even in a half empty arena. Also expecting significant use of backing track vocals to cover up any live performance blemishes.

Will look to trade this one back off if the staging disappoints, as that's where this one will live or die.

I'm trading this one off for a loss - expected much more from the staging but it was the least inspiring of the upbeat songs today.

 

[Beanie]

More action on the outright today. Iceland odds chopped in half on the basis of their rehearsal - not entirely clear why as there wasnt any particular surprise for me so I've laid some at current odds. Malta easing out which I'd expect to continue as the other contenders post strong rehearsals. I've laid Malta too, with a view to trading back once all countries have rehearsed.

Some suggestions online that covid restrictions might be limiting some of the staging thats allowed. Not seen many big budget props so far.

Summary of today:

San Marino: Bold staging and reasonable reviews from the press. Based on the staging today it looks like Flo Rida will make an appearance for the semi/final as his name flashed up on the visuals during the rap.
Estonia: As expected - in such an upbeat year a bland song sung by a young male has a place, and despite the bad draw I still have this as a borderline qualifier.
Czech Republic: Unimaginative staging, dull visuals. Potentially interesting song but poorly presented.
Greece: In contrast to the Czechs before, polished staging and choreography. Should look good on TV.
Austria: Staging looks like Cesar Sampson mark 2, but the song is far weaker so this may stay in the semi.
Poland: Sounded terrible, looked terrible. Goner.
Moldova: Had high expectations for the staging based on the names behind it, but the rehearsal snippets look exceptionally bland.
Iceland: The springer in the market today. Dadi always endearing, but there doesnt feel enough here to command anything like the jury score it needs to be a contender.
Serbia: Balkan banger much as expected. Looked a bit frantic on stage but time to put that right.

Another useful website - Telly Stats - can be used to compare youtube/instagram/twitter/facebook stats for each act:

https://tellystats.com/Eurovision2021/Stats/Youtube/Rehearsals/Views/1Hour

Tomorrow's schedule - all eyes on Bulgaria and Switzerland:

 

[Jezza]

Excellent write up as always Beanie thanks (Great reviews from Slick as well earlier). Holding out hope my San Marino punt at least gets in with a chance in the final. Just to go back to something in an earlier post....

I went over to Lisbon for Eurovision in 2018 and a lot of the songs just look plain wierd in the arena.

That's really interesting that you did that Beanie. Reading between the lines of what you said, It sounds like attending in person was not quite as great as it might have been, would that be correct to say? What was the whole experience like? Definitely a cool thing to have done, been a Eurovision fan for years but never dreamed of going.

 

[Beanie]

I think San Marino will make the final for you Jez - slot 1 isnt a bad spot for an uptempo banger.

That's really interesting that you did that Beanie. Reading between the lines of what you said, It sounds like attending in person was not quite as great as it might have been, would that be correct to say? What was the whole experience like? Definitely a cool thing to have done, been a Eurovision fan for years but never dreamed of going.

The opposite actually - was a brilliant experience and I'd do it again in a heartbeat (and will do over the next couple of years.) I went with my wife and we both had a great time. Went and did sightseeing during the day to get away from the Eurovision bubble, then spent the afternoons in the fan areas sitting in the sun with a beer listening to old and new eurovision songs, and watching the shows on the big screens.

There's fans there from every country across Europe - the atmosphere is great. Reminded me of a football fanzone, but without the aggro and impending sense that you are about to get your head kicked in. Also the stereotypes are true and there are huge numbers of well preened groups of gay guys - I felt like the hunchback of notre dame walking about having not had a shave for a couple of days.

In terms of the live shows we went to the Jury final on the Friday night and loved that too. It's true that some of the songs dont look great especially if you are down on the floor, but they serve beer in stadium too so I was too tipsy to care.

So I'd definitely recommend it. Tips would be to go when its in a country with good weather to take good advantage of the fan zones, go when it's a city/area you would happily go to on holiday so that you can get out the bubble easily, and get tickets for the jury shows - it's basically the same show for half the price, and means you can watch the final in the fan zone which is probably better than in the arena.

 

[Jezza]

The opposite actually - was a brilliant experience and I'd do it again in a heartbeat (and will do over the next couple of years.) I went with my wife and we both had a great time.

Thanks for the write up Beanie, sounds amazing.

 

[Beanie]

Usually these arent worth posting because they dont stick around for long, but Portugal are currently available @ 2.25 to qualify from Semi Final 2 at Boylesports.

After their rehearsal this morning they are into 1.60 on the exchange, so a nice arb available.

 

[Beanie]

Outright market beginning to show some life. Bulgaria today's market steamer on the basis of their rehearsal, as we go into 2 heavy rehearsal days.

Today's review:

Georgia: The only thing simpler than the song is the staging. It's not qualifying but found myself really enjoying the rehearsal snippets.
Albania: This treads a well trodden path of Balkan Ballads. Staging a little less epic than was expected, so it sits on the borderline for me.
Portugal: There's very little in the song to motivate any sort of televote outside the diaspora, but the staging is perfect for the song with the jazzy feel and black and white graphics - juries should lap it up. Goes from a likely NQ to a likely Q.
Bulgaria: Large numbers of the press reporting this as the first 'moment' of the rehearsals so far. Bulgaria going all out on the story telling aspect of the song in terms of props and camerawork. I think these intimate songs can be overhyped at Eurovision, but reserving judgement until more clips are available after 2nd rehearsals.
Finland: Perfect juxtaposition with Bulgaria in a running order pairing that benefits them both. Little change from the national final - which means unlikely to garner any significant jury support in the final.
Latvia: I was expecting WTF staging here, so pleasantly surprised that they've removed some of the potential edginess. Still sounds too jarring and likely to miss the final.
Switzerland: 3rd favourite in the market, and a surprising staging. Gjon looks uncomfortable performing the artistic choreography rather than sitting at a piano - perhaps to avoid accusations that its a rehash of last years winner, but that would be the far safer choice. Easing out in the market and likely to continue to do so if they stick with the current staging.
Denmark: Staging is as per the national final. Its an cheesy, ironic 80s throwback, but I have it edging towards qualification - visuals, clothing and song are all clear at what demographic they are aiming for which vaults them ahead of a gaggle of songs in this semi.

As I say, epic rehearsal day tomorrow. None of the main contenders performing, but interesting to see if songs like Ireland or Azerbaijan make significant changes following negative 1st rehearsal reviews, or how Romania far after an extremely nervous first run out.

 

[Beanie]

Some better rehearsal clips now available on the official ESC Youtube site showing snippets of what the songs will look like on TV.

Today we had:

Lithuania: Looks really polished on screen - expecting a solid televote score here and easy qualification for the final.
Slovenia: A couple of nice touches with the staging on the big notes, but there's very little here to encourage voters to pick up the phone or judges to mark this about the bolder songs in the semi.
Russia: Looks and sounds fantastic - one of the biggest surprises for me in the rehearsals. Heading to the top 10 in the final IMO.
Sweden: In contrast, Sweden are in reverse. The wide angle shots leaves Tusse looking small on a gaping black stage. I think the jury vote probably drags it through, but unlikely to make much of an impression in the final.
Australia: Looks good on screen. If the show makes a point of highlighting that she hasnt been able to travel she might get a sympathetic televote thats good enough to qualify.

North Macedonia: In such an upbeat semi final im not convinced this one is completely dead, and I will likely oppose it in the last place market where they are approaching evens. As the only male ballad in the semi I think it could scrape a small amount of jury love.
Ireland: Absolutely bizarre staging. 1001 things going on, none of it interesting or motivational for televoters or jury. Heading home unless they do a 180.
Cyprus: Looks good on screen but the vocal is quite poor. Visually great, but I dont think this will get a huge amount of jury love in the final so not a contender for me, despite the odds drop in the outright market.
Norway: Even with the backing track assistance he's reaching for the top notes, and without the vocal there all thats left is the staging, which comes across as a bit novelty.
Croatia: This really is a semi (and part of the semi) thats jam packed with up tempo female led songs. I think they all probably harm one another to some extend, but I think this is appealing enough to both sides of Europe to make it.

Belgium: In amongst the uptempo bangers Belgium stands out nicely, and the staging complements the song well. Back up to being a borderline qualifier for me.
Israel: Vocal not perfect, but looks good on the stage and a great running order position in between 2 downbeat songs.
Romania: Roxen still struggling on the stage, and the vocal is quite difficult to listen to. Still time to polish the rough edges, but its a competitive semi final and this is now back in the pack.
Azerbaijan: Still disappointing. The choreography is lacklustre and the vocal not particularly impressive. Another one heading back towards borderline qualifier territory.
Ukraine: Lead singer didnt rehearse today due to a covid test. More wide angle shots than i expected which i think would be better focused on the band in the middle of the stage but still one of the most memorable in the semi.

Another big day tomorrow - interesting to see if Malta have made any changes, if Flo Rida turns up yet, and what Italy and France have in store...

 

[Beanie]

Well Malta did make changes, Flo Rida didnt turn up (yet), and France and Italy had plenty in store...

Malta: Destiny has ditched the bright pink dress in favour of a silver one, although curiously the bright pink boots remain. Interesting to see if they also go in the next run through. More coherent rehearsals today, as well as better visuals. Back into contention.
San Marino: No Flo Rida today but he looks almost certain to turn up. Slightly bonkers staging but thats not a bad thing from slot 1.
Estonia: This took a few steps back today - vocal sounds very weak on the official clip released, so edging this one towards NQ in my mind.
Czechia: Another one set to miss out on the saturday night showpeice. Looks a half hearted effort, and the vocal doesnt save it.
Greece: Greece is anything but half hearted - some innovative green screen visuals will keep the audience involved throughout and they are milking every last drop from an average song.

Austria: Full on 2018 staging for Vincent - may not get the same jury love as Austria did back then, but also could surprise at odds against to qualify, particularly as its followed by...
Poland: Probably the worst of all the rehearsals. Awful vocal, unimaginative staging, heading home.
Moldova: Big things were expected from the Moldovan staging before the week but its also underwhelming. Has some big names behind it so might get some * ahem * friendly votes but its not a lock to progress anymore.
Iceland: Trading around 5th favourite, but is that on the basis of last years viral song rather than this years? British televoters are likely to rally behind this on Saturday night so may offer a nice trade but I dont think this will contend at the business end unless it starts to breakthrough to mainstream media prior to the contest.
Serbia: By all accounts a whirlwind of a performance from Hurricane. They will certainly leave an impression on the night and I would rule out a decent finish on Saturday if they sweep up the balkan votes (although its a competitive region this year!)

Italy: Huge reaction to the Italian staging, and briefly went favourite. They've thrown the kitchen sink at the pyros - big conteder.
Germany: Not a big contender, but also I dont think this will be last as is at the very least memorable and fairly unique in the contest.
Netherlands: I slept on this one a little - looked and sounded great on stage. Should be a respectable if unspectacular result.
France:Italy was only briefly favourite as France took the baton back just 1 hour later. Barbara Previ was in national selection form, which was expected but triggered another price plunge. She sells the song perfectly and I think this probably takes the jury vote on Saturday night. Televote is the open question.
UK: Could be ready for yet another last place. The usual crap BBC staging, poor vocal, less than memorable song. Will wait and see if any books price up the last place market.
Spain: Probably a contender for last place too, but the staging and vocal is better than the UK, so we are in trouble, as usual.

Not a particularly interesting day of rehearsals tomorrow. Bulgaria may have a few more tricks up their sleeve, and most interesting element will be if Switzerland decide to change course after the poor reaction to their 1st rehearsal.

 

[Beanie]

Quieter day yesterday but a couple of interesting changes (or lack of):

Georgia: This isn't going to qualify as most televoters will be away making a cup of tea within 5 seconds but I enjoy the atmospheric staging and tranquility of it in a sea of uptempo bangers.
Albania: I feel like ive seen this song 1000 times before at Eurovision, but its sung well, staged well, and has its demographic, so I think they are progressing.
Portugal: Some more impeccable staging, giving an unremarkable song a clear USP which I think will get it the jury support it needs to progress.
Bulgaria: I like the storytelling element to the song, and not entirely counting it out of the overall win picture yet, but I still think it takes a little too long to draw viewers in amongst a noisy finals night.
Finland: Big benefit for both in the running order to have Bulgaria and Finland side by side. This is an excellent package - sailing through the semi and on for a reasonably good result in the final.

Latvia: The staging is slightly dull here and i dont think this will have sufficient televote or jury support to make it.
Switzerland: No changes on the staging which equals another outright drift. I have this as out of contention for the win now as its too late to make any major changes. The artistic elements of the camerawork and choreography likely to be offputting to the majority of televoters.
Denmark: Staging identical to the Danish National final, with some updated graphics. Unlikely to do well with juries, but a strong televote might nudge it through.

Last day of rehearsals today, and an important set as the 2 market leaders France and Italy duke it out. Looking forward to seeing what france looks like on screen: