Great reviews slick and fair play on noticing the Portugal song right from the off - I entirely slept on that one and now it's knocking on the door of the top 10. And on the topic of ones I slept on, I agree on the Netherlands. The staging is great, his voice is flawless - I do think the juries will lap up that song and the Top 15 and top 10 odds are great. So let me try some sort of betting summary, and top 10 prediction. Winner I think Italy win the public vote, with Ukraine tucked in behind. I think France and Malta top the Jury vote. Where does that leave things? Based on previous years, all other things being equal a strong televote song beats a strong jury song. I think Italy might be 4th or 5th coming out of the jury voting, and sweep to victory with a fairly mammoth televote score. However the price is a bit skinny and I already have some ew bets on France and Malta, so I'm not getting too heavily involved in the winner market. Personal preference for a France win, but I worry it will fall short on the televote. Top 4 Despite my ew bets on Malta from a while ago, I'm no longer convinced that they will get top 4. The second half of the contest is so strong that I think those in the first half will be somewhat forgotten, and the downloads/social media likes for Malta have been poorer than expected. Likely to get a good jury score, but I think this will get edged out by some hefty televote scores for its rivals like Ukraine. Still to decide on this one, but may lay Malta at odds on. Top 10 Onto some markets that im more keen to get involved in. Unlike the top of the scoreboard where a strong televote song beats a strong jury one, the converse is true in the middle of the scoreboard. Televoters heavily reward a small set of songs, while jury points are more spread out. What this means is that a song finishing mid to lower top 10 with the juries has a good chance of staying there even with a poorer televote score. Perfect candidate for me is Bulgaria @ 2.86 (betfair). Reportedly in good voice for the juries last night, I think this is 6th-8th with the juries. Likely to be much further down with the televote, but I dont think it will need too many more points to get there, and has enough friendly votes from the Balkans to get over the line. On this basis you could make an argument for a small play on Greece @ 5.50. Its not inconceivable that the juries reward the slick, overall package of the sung, which is well sung, and the greek diaspora might do the rest and get it over the line for an unlikely top 10. Portugal at odds against here I like also. It's strength in the downloads has been a real surprise. Last, but by no means least, the Netherlands at a slightly scandalous 20/1 for a top 10, and 4/1 for a top 15. The host nation usually finds points a little harder to come by and this one is very much flying under the radar, but the vocal is flawless, the staging clean and professional, the draw is great, and the song is unlike any other in the contest. It's not a particularly chart friendly song which is a drawback, but I can see this being a top 10 with the juries. Likely to suffer in the televote, but as above a strong jury score can still lead to a high finish on its own (Czech Republic in 2019 finished 8th with juries and 24th with televoters, which was good enough for overall 11th.) I also make Israel a good lay in the top 15 market. Last Place I make this a shootout between Spain, UK, Israel and Germany. The question to answer is where the points come from. Starting with the juries, I think the UK and Israel will snatch a few jury points on the basis that the songs are reasonably up to date and well structured, despite poor vocals. Germany will be bottom of a lot of jurors scorecards which will nullify the effect of any that like it - there's little musical or staging content to reward. Spain is a standard ballad but the vocal is poor. In the televote I struggle to see much of a reward for any of the 4. Germany's juxtaposition with Finland might work in its favour to scrape a few. On that basis, my bets will be small plays on Spain to finish last @ 5/1 and Israel to finish last @ 14/1. And just to look stupid, finish with a top 10 prediction: 1. Italy 2. France 3. Ukraine 4. Switzerland 5. Malta 6. Lithuania 7. Iceland 8. Bulgaria 9. Portugal 10. Finland Last place - Spain Good luck all!