• Hi and welcome to Betnod. Please register for even more tips, analysis and chat.

Eurovision Song Contest Betting 18th - 22nd May 2021

Time for a quick Semi final 1 prediction and a few betting notes.

Semi 1

(Almost) Certain Qualifiers in no particular order

Lithuania
Russia - Juries may well handicap this sufficiently to prevent a top 3 in this semi, but the evens for a top 10 in the final looks appealing. Staging(and singer) sells the song perfectly.
Cyprus
Malta
Ukraine

Likely Qualifiers

Sweden - jury support just about pulls this through but an underwhelming final result awaits
Croatia - I make this a pretty safe Q, so anything around 1.40 is good enough for me.

Borderline - making it

Azerbaijan
Belgium - in a different semi this might not qualify, but it stands out so well in an uptempo semi/year that I think this gets heavily rewarded by juries. Anything evens or above is value imo.
Israel

Thats my 10.

Borderline - not making it

Norway - this is slightly speculative as it's 1/4 to qualify, but I think this may struggle. The staging shunts it into novelty territory which i think the juries will penalise, and for televoters there are numerous stronger packages. I'm taking this not to qualify at 4.00+
Romania - really unsure how this one will score, but the vocal issues really dents the package and it strikes me as too messy to do particularly well on either side of the scoreboard. Had a nibble at a few odds against prices on this not to qualify.

Unlikely

Australia

No Hopers

Slovenia
North Macedonia
Ireland - A disaster from start to end this week, and a shaky vocal tonight to go with the poor staging. I've been backing it not to qualify through the week, and anything around 3.50+ for last place looks value.
 
Good betting night, 9/10 correct - Croatia missing out a big surprise for me but perhaps the juries didnt go for it. Belgium making it and Romania missing out was a good result, and feeling reasonably positive about the Ireland last place bet, but will find out about that one after Saturday.

Semi 2 preview tomorrow after the jury show.
 
Pre show Semi 2 prediction:

(Almost) Certain Qualifiers in no particular order

Switzerland - big gamble on the swiss today in the outright market. The staging remains off putting for me, so as it stands ill be opposing this in the final.
Bulgaria
Finland
Iceland
San Marino
Greece - Its not out of the question that Greece nab a top 3 in this semi. Great visual package, strong vocal, solid if unspectacular song. Has all the ingredients for a solid score on both sides. Will see what odds are around tomorrow.

Likely Qualifiers

Portugal - this was 2.20 to qualify just a week ago - now 1/6! What a turnaround.
Serbia
Albania

Betfair have Serbia, Albania, and Portugal all to make the final priced up at 2.70 in their sportsbook specials. That's also worth a nibble.

Borderline - making it

Denmark - this is an extremely tight call for me between Denmark's televote and Austria's jury vote. As i said earlier I think the 80s sound has a clear demographic in Europe and its a perfect show closer, so im giving the edge to the Danes. My preference though is to oppose Moldova, rather than get involved on Denmark and Austria

Borderline - not making it

Austria
Moldova - some 1.80+ about for this not to qualify. There's numerous better uptempo songs in this semi, so I think it going to be struggling for both televotes and jury votes.

Unlikely

Estonia
Czech Republic
Latvia

No Hopers

Poland
Georgia - Despite him looking like he's not bothered about being there, this song does stand out from the rest. I think it can sneak above atleast one song (probably poland) so if you can get Poland at 2/1 for last place that looks reasonable.
 
Just had a couple of quid on Georgia to reach the final at 12/1
 
Are San Marino and Switzerland going through? I am superstitious about turning the semi final on, everytime ive watched a eurovision semi final ive lost all my bets :lol
 
Thanks, i noticed San Marino drifted a lot on the exchanges, 36s last night but 100 now so I was worried.
 
9/10 - missed Moldova. Couldnt possible suggest that they had the assistance from a few brown envelopes...

Made up for the by Serbia/Portugal/Albania treble.
 
Time for a few final notes. Jury final is taking place just now, so will try to include a few notes from there. May adjust a few tomorrow.

In Running Order:

Cyprus - Not a bad running order slot for a song like this. Juries likely to be a little put off by the styling and lyrics. Its doing reasonable numbers on downloads.
Albania - This is the type of ethnic ballad that typically gets forgotten about in finals, and from slot 2 i dont think this will be much different. Smattering of Balkan support.
Israel - I expect this squeaked through the semi, and I dont see much here for jurors, or televoters in a 26 song semi.
Belgium - Sandwiched between Israel and Russia is a benefit, but the early slot isnt. Televoters like this type of song as a midway breather. Some jury love but not much else.
Russia - tricky to place this one. Style likely to be offputting for juries, and difficult to see mass televote support outside the (albeit large) Russian diaspora.
Malta - The EBU have said they dont know the semi final results when making the order. If thats not true, then it means that Malta have somehow lost semi final 1 from the pimp slot. Thats seems unlikely. Destiny gives a great vocal, strong message and reasonably current song, so this has a reasonable chance of winning the jury vote. Televote may be less secure - downloads and social media stats have been disappointing.
Portugal - the big surprise of the week. Not only one of the staging triumphs, but now some really strong download numbers to go with it. This it will score surprisingly highly on both sides of the coin.

Serbia - A hurricane of a song from Hurricane. Likely to be penalised by juries for the slightly chaotic nature of the song and dancing, but will be boosted by a strong televote, particularly in the Balkans.
UK - Inoffensive, bland song that could have gained some jury support, but vocal sounds like it has been very poor which will lose any limited good will. Difficult to see where any points come from, save for some sympathetic Maltese or Irish votes.
Greece - The staging gimmick doesnt seem to have resonated particularly with televoters, but the professional staging should find some jury support, with the diaspora there to pick up some of the televote slack.
Switzerland - The avante-garde choreography is likely to lose some jury points, but will still command a top 5 in that part of the scoring. The televote is less predictable - poor social media stats during the semi final but strong downloads since.
Iceland - I detect solid if unspectacular jury support here, complemented by a solid wedge of televote points from first time viewers who find the act charming. Solid finish in prospect.
Spain - by all accounts butchered a few notes during the jury rehearsal. Like the UK, difficult to see where any points come from.
Moldova - some suggestions that they bought a few jury votes to get through the semi. In a 26 song final this is bottom 10 on both jury and televote.
Germany - Difficult to see any jury points given the gimmicky nature of the song. May sneak above UK and Spain with a smattering of minor televote points but its fine margins.
Finland - Gone big on the downloads since the 2nd semi final, and looks set to be the most polarising entry between juries and televoters. Reportedly gave the middle finger during the jury performance, so im expecting a high televote and low jury score, equalling a mid table finish.

Bulgaria - struggled during the semi but reports are of a better performance during the jury final. Doesnt look like it will create the moment it needs, but from a good draw I think it can squeak a top 10.
Lithuania - Difficult to see how the juries rate this. The package is competent but treads a fine line between pop and novelty. Think that may be reflected in a wide spread of jury scores.
Ukraine - Everything points to a top 5 televote score. Strong downloads following semi final 1, huge social media reaction, and not just limited to Eastern Europe. Juries likely to mark it down though, and damage its chances of a top 5.
France - This has all the hallmarks of jury bait. Reports of a strong vocal tonight, this could be heading for a jury win. Televote holds the key to overall chances.
Azerbaijan - despite the lacklustre staging the song itself is going down well, doing reasonably well on social media and downloads since the semi final. Inoffensive enough and broad enough appeal that the top 10 may be doable.
Norway - I think this will end up roughly middle with juries due to the inoffensive song, middle with televoters due to the melodic song and memorable look, and middle of the overall scoreboard.
Netherlands - Very low down the betting but I think this can spring a surprise. Its fairly unique in this contest, the vocal is good, the song identity is strong and i can see some reasonable jury love. Not discounting a top 10 at big odds.
Italy - Reasonably confident that this wins the televote. Has broader appeal than both Ukraine and Finland, Italy are televote magnets, and the running order is perfect. Jury score less certain as some jurors will drag it down.
Sweden - Very much the comedown from the run of songs before. Tusse has stopped singing quite a few of the big notes in favour of letting the backing track take over. With the competition for both televotes and jury votes so high, i think this could be a rare missed top 10 for Sweden.
San Marino - Perfect show closer. Flo Rida's appearance will still be a talking point as the phone lines open so a reasonable televote score should be on the cards, but difficult to see any consistent jury support.

--------------------

Winner, top 10 prediction and a few bets worth looking at tomorrow.
 
Beanie said:
Time for a few final notes. Jury final is taking place just now, so will try to include a few notes from there. May adjust a few tomorrow.

In Running Order:

Cyprus - Not a bad running order slot for a song like this. Juries likely to be a little put off by the styling and lyrics. Its doing reasonable numbers on downloads.
Albania - This is the type of ethnic ballad that typically gets forgotten about in finals, and from slot 2 i dont think this will be much different. Smattering of Balkan support.
Israel - I expect this squeaked through the semi, and I dont see much here for jurors, or televoters in a 26 song semi.
Belgium - Sandwiched between Israel and Russia is a benefit, but the early slot isnt. Televoters like this type of song as a midway breather. Some jury love but not much else.
Russia - tricky to place this one. Style likely to be offputting for juries, and difficult to see mass televote support outside the (albeit large) Russian diaspora.
Malta - The EBU have said they dont know the semi final results when making the order. If thats not true, then it means that Malta have somehow lost semi final 1 from the pimp slot. Thats seems unlikely. Destiny gives a great vocal, strong message and reasonably current song, so this has a reasonable chance of winning the jury vote. Televote may be less secure - downloads and social media stats have been disappointing.
Portugal - the big surprise of the week. Not only one of the staging triumphs, but now some really strong download numbers to go with it. This it will score surprisingly highly on both sides of the coin.

Serbia - A hurricane of a song from Hurricane. Likely to be penalised by juries for the slightly chaotic nature of the song and dancing, but will be boosted by a strong televote, particularly in the Balkans.
UK - Inoffensive, bland song that could have gained some jury support, but vocal sounds like it has been very poor which will lose any limited good will. Difficult to see where any points come from, save for some sympathetic Maltese or Irish votes.
Greece - The staging gimmick doesnt seem to have resonated particularly with televoters, but the professional staging should find some jury support, with the diaspora there to pick up some of the televote slack.
Switzerland - The avante-garde choreography is likely to lose some jury points, but will still command a top 5 in that part of the scoring. The televote is less predictable - poor social media stats during the semi final but strong downloads since.
Iceland - I detect solid if unspectacular jury support here, complemented by a solid wedge of televote points from first time viewers who find the act charming. Solid finish in prospect.
Spain - by all accounts butchered a few notes during the jury rehearsal. Like the UK, difficult to see where any points come from.
Moldova - some suggestions that they bought a few jury votes to get through the semi. In a 26 song final this is bottom 10 on both jury and televote.
Germany - Difficult to see any jury points given the gimmicky nature of the song. May sneak above UK and Spain with a smattering of minor televote points but its fine margins.
Finland - Gone big on the downloads since the 2nd semi final, and looks set to be the most polarising entry between juries and televoters. Reportedly gave the middle finger during the jury performance, so im expecting a high televote and low jury score, equalling a mid table finish.

Bulgaria - struggled during the semi but reports are of a better performance during the jury final. Doesnt look like it will create the moment it needs, but from a good draw I think it can squeak a top 10.
Lithuania - Difficult to see how the juries rate this. The package is competent but treads a fine line between pop and novelty. Think that may be reflected in a wide spread of jury scores.
Ukraine - Everything points to a top 5 televote score. Strong downloads following semi final 1, huge social media reaction, and not just limited to Eastern Europe. Juries likely to mark it down though, and damage its chances of a top 5.
France - This has all the hallmarks of jury bait. Reports of a strong vocal tonight, this could be heading for a jury win. Televote holds the key to overall chances.
Azerbaijan - despite the lacklustre staging the song itself is going down well, doing reasonably well on social media and downloads since the semi final. Inoffensive enough and broad enough appeal that the top 10 may be doable.
Norway - I think this will end up roughly middle with juries due to the inoffensive song, middle with televoters due to the melodic song and memorable look, and middle of the overall scoreboard.
Netherlands - Very low down the betting but I think this can spring a surprise. Its fairly unique in this contest, the vocal is good, the song identity is strong and i can see some reasonable jury love. Not discounting a top 10 at big odds.
Italy - Reasonably confident that this wins the televote. Has broader appeal than both Ukraine and Finland, Italy are televote magnets, and the running order is perfect. Jury score less certain as some jurors will drag it down.
Sweden - Very much the comedown from the run of songs before. Tusse has stopped singing quite a few of the big notes in favour of letting the backing track take over. With the competition for both televotes and jury votes so high, i think this could be a rare missed top 10 for Sweden.
San Marino - Perfect show closer. Flo Rida's appearance will still be a talking point as the phone lines open so a reasonable televote score should be on the cards, but difficult to see any consistent jury support.

--------------------

Winner, top 10 prediction and a few bets worth looking at tomorrow.
Click to expand...


Cheers Beanie, need to go through these again to get my bets in order.
 
I'll go through this blind and not take into account what I've posted b4...

May have mentioned a name of a wine b4 (Hypocrite) hard to get away from it really.
My general consensus is no chance.
 
Albania----
reminds me of a young Carol Volderman.

and that's about it really lol, not a great tune..

 
Israel, not a bad effort but under the current political climate, no chance...
 
Russia:
Has novelty value and that's about it, no cohesion in this song what so ever...
 
Malta
At least has a resemblance of a song.
Not bad but is a bit like a jigsaw in that it's being pieced together as it goes along.
best of a bad bunch so far but it's far from being a winner.
 
Portugal
I'm a bit biased on this one as I've liked it from the off.
heard it in the semis and it just confirmed imo how good it was, my Fav so far...very simply reddish.
 
Last edited:
Serbia
Eye candy and nothing else imo, still wouldn't mind giving any of them the worst 30 secs of their lives....
 
Greece:
Fit as fcuk but that's about it, limited talent but will probably finish 10.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top