• Hi and welcome to Betnod. Please register for even more tips, analysis and chat.

ODM's Pretty Young Things

Profitable day already with two to run. lord Wishes wins at 6/1 and Auspicion 3rd at 10/1.
 
ONEDUNME said:
Plenty for today - I'll tally up one day this week.

Starting with 145 York Sandy Cove 10/3 but available at 2/1 without the fav Man Look so that is definitely the way to go £10 stake - Bet won

210 Sandown Dommerson Wide, wide open race with the first four in the market all hovering around the 4/1 mark so not a race to be confident in. With that in mind, I'm going £5 ew at 4/1. 2nd at 5/1 returns stake

350 Hexham Lord Wishes 7/1 with Stan James (with whom I don't have an account but hey ho, it's very rare they're the best price anyway) - won

410 York - big field, Auspicion £3 ew 12/1 placed 3rd

450 Navan- another big field An Duine Uasal £3ew 16/1 placed 3rd

650 Ling - and the one I like best of all Coolfitch 650 Lingfield, £5 win 4/1 plus £10 w/o Pacos Angel 9/4 4th - no good
Click to expand...
 
Two today but both in the same race. 330 Doncaster, 5ew on each Spring Fling 13/2 and Meshardal 8/1.
 
740 Nottingham tomorrow Cersei best priced 11/4 currently

820 Windsor Rex Bell. Big field, shit price (4/1) so no bet.
 
ONEDUNME said:
740 Nottingham tomorrow Cersei best priced 11/4 currently

820 Windsor Rex Bell. Big field, shit price (4/1) so no bet.
Click to expand...

Cersei ran disappointingly. Rex Bell won at 11/4

Tomorrow
535 Ascot Tomily 5 ew 10/1. 3 ew Full Intention 33/1

305 Ascot - Broken Stones opened up at 10/1 the night before its first race before romping home at 7/4 or something stupid, so it may be worth a go at 16/1 tomorrow. 3 ew

340 Ascot Waady 5ew 14/1
 
Broken Stones a non-runner yesterday

Waady continued my recent trend of finishing just out of the places (not sure whether any bookies paid 5 places on the race, I was too busy yesterday to concentrate on the horses). Tomily nowhere.

Today's

230 Ascot Gifted Master 8/1 4places

610 Chelmsford. Pepita has been flagged up by my tracker but looking at the race I remember seeing the second fav run well to win its last race but forgot to put it in my tracker so no bet and I'm adding Teofonic (daughter of Teofilo) to my tracker and it will be interesting to see which of these shapes up to be the better. No bet

8.00 Ripon Paddy Power 4/1 5ew on this and hope the 8 runners stand their ground
 
Pooh day. No time - here are the nags for today

220 Chelmsford Tempuran 10pt win 4/1
230 Ascot The Last Lion 2pt ew 25/1
340 Ascot Ajman Princess 1pt ew 40/1
535 Ascot Second Serve 1pt ew 50/1 4 places
750 Lingfied Rock N Red 5pt ew 9/1
 
28 staked yesterday, two big priced seconds (The Last Lion 25/1 2nd Ajman Princess 40/1) returning 25.5. Rock N Red ran just out of the places which was the difference between a profit and a slight loss on the day. 2.5 lost.

Today

230 Ascot Create a Dream 5 ew 15/1 Four places (coral)
340 Ascot Dream Dubai 1pt ew 33/1 Three places
905 Newmarket Geno 5pt win 5/1. Was hoping to get evens on 3 places on betfair for 10pts but it's not looking likely so I'll have to settle for 10 pts at whatever I can get when the place market has matured and found its proper level.

22pts staked
 
Create a Dream's odds should say 15/2 not 15/1 as above. Placed fourth for a biddy profit of 4.38pts
 
Other two lost. No great hopes for tomorrows either

Ayr 150 Mailshot 10 win 10/3
Ayr 220 Flyboy 5 win 4/1 and will get over evens for a place for 5 tomorrow
305 Ascot Second Wave 3pt ew 20/1 4 places
435 Down Royal 5ew Spader 12/1
500 Ascot The Happy Prince 5ew 16/1 six places (PP)
and Shared equity 20/1 (six places - 25/1 available without the extra places)
 
Ayr 150 Mailshot 10 win 10/3 - Non runner
Ayr 220 Flyboy 5 win 4/1 and will get over evens for a place for 5 tomorrow- Nowhere
305 Ascot Second Wave 3pt ew 20/1 4 places- 2nd at 20/1
435 Down Royal 5ew Spader 12/1/ Last (and now dead to me)
500 Ascot The Happy Prince 5ew 16/1 six places (PP) - Nowhere
and Shared equity 20/1 (six places - 25/1 available without the extra places) - Nowhere

43pts staked, 18 returned = wank


One for today, 720 Windsor, King of Naples 3/1 10 pts
 
Loser yesterday - Krebs Cycle in a nightmare of a race as far as picking a winner even with only the 6 runners. 710 Leicester 3/1
 
After three days shy of two months, the profit for thi
s thread stands at +522 for average stakes of under 10pts per horse.

The dogmeat for the day is as follows:

335 Carlisle Kalk Bay 5pt ew at 10/1 (4 places). There is more discussion on this one in Seen's Roger Charlton thread in which I said that I'd be looking for it to run in a sprint race over a straight track at a big price. Whilst I was waiting for that run to appear so that I could put a decent sized bet on it, it went and won at Musselburgh last time out at 12/1.

345 Salisbury. I had Rex Bell in my tracker last time out and did mention it in this thread but the price was so short and the field so big that I didn't back it - it won (obviously) and I'll be on it for a 5pt win at 5/1 with a place bet of 5pts to make 8.50 profit for 2 places on betfair. Carries a 6lb penalty but a change in jockey takes 3 of that back off. Will probably bid to make all, so worth considering a lay of....say....even money if you play that way.

730 Naas - The 6/4 has gone for Discipine (now 5/4) which was heavily backed to win its first race and duly obliged. 2nd next time out but obviously handles heavy ground and should go one better today. 10pt win.

820 Kempton Mailshot won for this thread at 4/1 but has since failed twice. First time on the all weather today and is probably worth sticking with, 10pt win 10/3.

Happy punting
 
Nice going with the profits, mate - superb stuff :thumb

I didn't even know Kalk Bay had ran at Musselburgh, let alone win :lookaround Surprised he was able to win around 7f there but looking back on the race it appears they've gone far too quickly up front which has played right in to his hands (jockey said "They went really quick although I was happy to sit out last. Kalk Bay didn´t half pick up from three down and I wasn´t even that sore on him"). Today's course and distance should suit even better so fingers crossed for a good run.

Main worries would be potential lack of pace and also his low draw - his apprentice jockey needs to use his nous early on to make sure he doesn't get trapped on the rail as the horse will need all of the 3.5f run-in to get going for his usual late run. I'll back him 50% stake pre-race and then stick the other 50% on after a furlong or so if the pace looks decent :crossfingers
 
Yeah I did wonder about the draw. It's entered in a 7f race at Doncaster on Saturday which is exactly the kind of race that I had in mind for it to be winning so I wouldn't mind if it ran a stinker today as long as it does turn out on Saturday because that will make the price all the better. It has been turned out quickly after races a couple of times in the past but I'm thinking it's more likely that it won't line up on Saturday which is a shame. Unless it happened to be pulled out today for some reason.
 
335 Kalk Bay lost 10 pts
345 Rex Bell placed for a profit of 3.50
730 Discipline won cosily, profit of 12.50
820 Mailshot won at 10/3, profit of 33.24

Only one loser and a total profit on the day of 39.34 pts
 
Tomorrow

305 Newmarket. Faraweeq won for this thread at a skinny 7/10 last month and goes tomorrow in handicap company having been raised a pound for that win. Looks a straightforward type to the eyes of a man of little knowledge like me and Paul Hanagan rides it again. Got to be worth a punt. 5ew at 9/2

255 Newcastle Briardale. If you look back to 26th May you'll see that this won for me at 12/1 (although I wasn't confident enough in it to include it in the P and L figures for this thread. Was last time a flash in the pan or is it a four year old possibly on the improve? We'll find out tomorrow, 10 point win at 3/1 (drifting).

On the same day as the above, Rural Celebration gave me a third place at 28/1 and just missed out on a follow up to that the race after, coming third at 20/1. Dropping down the handicap dispite running decent races at big prices so I'm backing it again tomorrow 5ew at 15/2 520 Newmarket.

715 Newbury. I seem to remember posting about Squire very recently but I think it ended up not running. As with the above, this is not my usual MO (five year old dropping down the weights) but is an old tracker horse that is possibly worth a look (although the 16/1 and the relative price of the fav at 7/4 probably reflects its chances of winning). 2.5 points ew.
 
ONEDUNME said:
Tomorrow

305 Newmarket. Faraweeq won for this thread at a skinny 7/10 last month and goes tomorrow in handicap company having been raised a pound for that win. Looks a straightforward type to the eyes of a man of little knowledge like me and Paul Hanagan rides it again. Got to be worth a punt. 5ew at 9/2

255 Newcastle Briardale. If you look back to 26th May you'll see that this won for me at 12/1 (although I wasn't confident enough in it to include it in the P and L figures for this thread. Was last time a flash in the pan or is it a four year old possibly on the improve? We'll find out tomorrow, 10 point win at 3/1 (drifting).

On the same day as the above, Rural Celebration gave me a third place at 28/1 and just missed out on a follow up to that the race after, coming third at 20/1. Dropping down the handicap dispite running decent races at big prices so I'm backing it again tomorrow 5ew at 15/2 520 Newmarket.

715 Newbury. I seem to remember posting about Squire very recently but I think it ended up not running. As with the above, this is not my usual MO (five year old dropping down the weights) but is an old tracker horse that is possibly worth a look (although the 16/1 and the relative price of the fav at 7/4 probably reflects its chances of winning). 2.5 points ew.
Click to expand...

Briardale only came second but Faraweeq won so that guarantees no loss on the day with two left to run for us.
 
No more returns for today. Rural Celebration doing what it does best and finishing one place out of the important positions.



430 Yarmouth Knight Owl 10pt win 5/2. One originally in my tracker in 2014 when I noted that it didn't seem too genuine when getting its head in front so I advised myself to put a lay in running. Looks like that may be a habit it's now cured of.

440 Cartmel Mardale 6/1. I would have considered a straight win bet on this one but my notes say that I think (not that I'm an expert) that it will probably need soft or good to soft and tomorrow is only good so I may be willing to dismiss a bad run. 5pt ew.

635 Chester Irish Optimism 5pt ew 8/1

735 Chester Sightline. Don't know how this will handle the peculiarities of the Chester track but I was impressed with it when it ran second to White Poppy in its third run (both pulling clear of the field). 2/1 fav. 10 pt win. Opened up at 3/1 earlier this evening - bugger!

745 Newcastle. Should be a match between Intimation and Nezwaah but Secret Sense caught my eye when winning its first race this season (fourth ever) but disappointed subsequently. Absolute outsider of the field but a bit of an unknown quantity in my eyes. Will be interested to watch the vid and see how it runs afterwards. 2pt ew 28/1.

805 Chester- Hillbilly boy. Originally in my tracker in 2014 and back to winning ways last time out (when i backed it at 8/1 - see posts on 5th May) but was that a one-off or can it justify a 6lb rise in the weights?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top