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The Cheltenham Festival 2016

Ground update

The heavy rain that changed the ground at Cheltenham to soft all round may impact Cooper's decision, but officials are expecting the deluge to be the last of the significant wet weather before the start of the festival on Tuesday.

After 24mm fell through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, clerk of the course Simon Claisse said: "We've been mostly dry through the day - we've maybe had another millimetre - and the track has taken it well.

"The encouraging thing is the outlook is predominantly dry and getting milder through the rest of this week with at the moment only the odd shower forecast during festival week."

When asked what ground he expected for the start of the festival, Claisse replied: "Based on the current forecast a combination of soft and good to soft, but I'm not sure which will be predominant."

Good to soft was hardened as the 4-11 favourite to be the official going on day one, while good was pushed out to 5-1, the same price as soft.
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I think the 5/1 (Betfred) about the official going of Soft looks a cracking price.

I'm 23 miles away (as the crow flies) and it's wet, very wet. I think Claisse could possibly trying to keep some of the better ground horses in with his statement at this stage. I'm no weatherman but there's no sign of spring whatsoever.

Hills have clipped there odds to 9/2 tonight, while Stan james are already 100/30.

I think it will be 50/50 between Soft and Good to soft, which makes the 5/1 look very big.
 
I get your logic, Punter, but your biggest threat is the fact that the CoC will be desperate to announces GS to keep as many trainers/owners happy (not too soft for the Good ground horses and not to fast for the mudlarks). There doesn't appear to be any more rain forecast for Gloucester before the meeting starts and if it is 50/50 you can bet your bottom dollar that he'll go with GS.

Also GS remains strong fav on Betfair at 1.3 (shortening if anything) which is always significant.
 
CoC will be delighted to see beautiful sunshine down here this morning, Seen :frown
 
CoC will be delighted to see beautiful sunshine down here this morning, Seen :frown
 
CoC will be delighted to see beautiful sunshine down here this morning, Seen :frown
 
4 days before the festival and William Hill still aren't offering money back, non runner. They did the same last year and they should be ashamed of themselves.
 
Heard a big shout for New To This Town in the bumper on Wednesday.

I've got a mate who's a blacksmith and he got drinking with a few Irish that are over here already. This is the one they were shouting up.
Make of it what you will but the form is very good, though that was on heavy. I'll be having a small bet at around 10/1.
 
There's a little bit in The Sun newspaper this morning about that horse Punt. Apparently Alan Potts has bought it and he is no mug when it comes to decent horses. Has won both of its runs flat runs so far. Trainer is no mug either. I have no selection in that race yet so I'll join you ew on the 10/1 with Paddy Power (free bet if second in all races at the festival)
 
I've heard Any Currency and Cause of Causes, loosely shouted up today.

Having looked at the form, not a great season for either but both enjoyed success here 12 months ago.
 
Punter said:
I've heard Any Currency and Cause of Causes, loosely shouted up today.

Having looked at the form, not a great season for either but both enjoyed success here 12 months ago.
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I don't know about Any Currency but I wouldn't let Cause of Causes' season put you off. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if the owner has made sure its last 2 runs were run deliberately with the intention of lowering its handicap mark. It's currently rated 3lb lower than it was at last year's festival and if anyone has enough horses and money and experience to be able to sacrifice short term gain for a Cheltenham winner, It's JP McManus.

Your problem, should you back it, lies in the worry about who will ride it as it's an Amateur Jockey race. I wouldn't be surprised to see JW Kennedy on it. If he is, get on it. Nina Carberry has a ride in the race but if Knock House doesn't run for any reason, I wouldn't be surprised to see her jump on it either.
 
What we all got for the opening day then?

I won’t be parting with too much cash this festival due to me being a right wanker in the past few months. I also have a funeral to attend tomorrow (the inconsiderate bastard).This is the best I can come up with for today…


1.30

One of the first 3 in the market for me, It looks like MIN but I hope one of the Nicholson runners wins it. No bet here for me.


2.10

Any point in opposing DOUVAN? I don’t think so. Another no bet.


2.50

Yay! An outsider I’m going to play. SOUTHFIELD THEATRE, E.W @ 20/1.

Piss poor form last two races but got within 6 lengths 2nd of Don Poli here last festival. Has been in the first 4 in all 6 runs at Cheltenham in the past and could be a sneaky Nicholls winner at a decent price.


3.30

THE NEW ONE & MY TENT OR YOURS at around 11/2 and 10/1 for me.

I hope last years bookies saviour Annie Power gets turned over.

The New one will be my biggest bet of the day but I feel I’ve got to cover MTOY too with a small bet. Some feat if MTOY can win it after being off for two years but this is a JP horse and I cannot rule it out. Gonna throw in a small reverse forecast too.


4.10

KEPPOLS QUEEN is a ridiculous price @ 50/1 according to Jessica Harrington…

VROUM VROUM MAG may not have things all her own way in Tuesday's OLBG Mares' Hurdle with trainer Jessica Harrington believing Keppols Queen is primed to put in a bold bid.


The eight-year-old has not been seen since winning the Grade 3 Willis European Breeders Fund Mares Hurdle at Leopardstown on December 29 but Harrington is confident the mare will go well fresh.

She is also thrilled with the drying ground, which on Monday afternoon was described as good to soft, soft in places with clerk of the course Simon Claisse expecting to announce a further improvement in conditions on Tuesday.


"She's a very capable mare who has won twice in the last year, most recently at Leopardstown in a Grade 3 over Christmas," said Harrington in her Trainr File interview in Tuesday's Racing & Football Outlook.


"I put her away then as the ground has been so heavy and I didn't want to bottom her out with so many nice races open to her in the coming weeks.


"She goes well fresh, so the layoff is no concern. It looks a tough race with Vroum Vroum Mag heading the betting, but my mare is a very experienced campaigner and the big field won't faze her. I think she has an interesting each-way chance."
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4.50

I heard Gordon Elliot saying lots of good things about NOBLE ENDEAVOR a while back, a small bet on the 2nd fav here at around 7/1


5.30

DOUBLE SHUFFLE has been mentioned to me and another small bet at around 10/1, to finish the day off.


Good luck chaps!
 
As predicted, the prices are mostly better than the antepost. Antepost betting at Cheltenham is officially dead. Complete waste of time when you consider the pros and cons.

130 Without Min - ew Supersundae 10/1 (Now 8/1). I also fancy Silver Concorde ew which I will put in a lucky 15 at 16/1

210 Without Douvan - The Game Changer 7/2 (now 4/1) and Sizing John (with fav) ew at 8/1

250 Gonna be Kruzhlinin ew 10/1 and either Hollywell or Out Sam without Holywell 11/2. (or all three if I'm up at this stage)
Band of Blood or Regal Encore in my lucky 15 at 20/1 and 16/1 respectively

330 Couple of JP runners My Tent or Yours ew 8/1 (now 10/1) and Hargon ew at 20/1 (now 25/1)

410 Interesting this. Stupid but interesting. In theory, all my three bets could win:lol. VV Mag at evens (now 11/10) Polly Peacham without VV Mag 3/1 and The Govanas without the both of them at 11/2

450 Minella Rocco 5/1 (now 6/1) and Southfield Royale 7/1. Definitely Red on my lucky 15 at 16/1

530 My biggest bet of the day (and the festival so far) Double Shuffle. On at 20/1 and 16/1 it's currently 10/1 and shrinking. I've only just realised that Killer Crow isn't in the betting any more so I'd better find out where that's going to run - likewise Full Shift . I'll get on Willows Saviour instead 9/1
 
I've not even had a proper look yet but jumped on the double shuffle bandwagon a week or so ago, I'd actually forgot about it but just checked my Betfair account and it's been matched @ 20's so fingers crossed.

GL all.
 
Not got a lot of tome to go into details but here are my Day 1 selections.

Bellshill (money back if it loses - sky)
Aso (100/1 outsider - fav too short)
Holywell
The New One (no chance as Punter is a fucking jonah)
Lily Waugh
Noble Endeavour (see The New one above)
Double Shuffle (see Noble Endeavour)
 
1.30 - HOLLY BUSH HENRY - Obviously on the improve with 3 wins in a row and remains lightly raced. All credit to connections for sticking with young Kielan Woods on board and I have long rated the guy, so very happy he has this opportunity. Officially has a fair bit to find, but possibly better than his mark of 142 and comfortable taking a chance at a top price 80's.

2.50 - MORNING ASSEMBLY - Lightly raced 9yo and certainly not been over exerted since coming 3rd in the 2014 RSA. Both 2nd's this season look decent and interesting to me as is one that is potentially a fair bit better than his current mark.

4.50 - MINELLA ROCCO - Always comfortable backing Derek O'Connor in these races and MR is a lightly raced 6yo whose novice hurdle form from 2015 reads very well. Best effort as a Novice Chaser came last time out and that run suggested that he has both the potential and stamina to go very close today. SHANTOU FLYER has a bit too find with the principles and his jumping can be a cause for concern. Has won at the track though and does represent a seriously under rated trainer in Colin Bowe. Fair EW alternative at 40's.

5.30 - DOUBLE SHUFFLE - Got way too many mentions on these pages for my liking and worried that the weight off Betnod money will sink him. Very difficult for me however to ignore a stoutly bred Milan and DS has certainly took well to fences. Has had a couple of sighters at the course as well and the drying ground looks to be in his favour.
 
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