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SAMOAN
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2.10 - MALL DINI and ALL HELL LET LOOSE - Pair of lively outsiders, both at around the 25/1 mark.
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The Cheltenham Festival 2016
- Thread starter ONEDUNME
- Start date
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SAMOAN
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3.30 - MARTELLO TOWER - Drying ground a worry, but has festival winning form and stamina in abundance. Bit to find in this company as well, but just feel the 33's is too big.
5.30 - UPSWING - Going with Derek O'Connor again and can hopefully follow up his Tuesday win for the same connections. Looked progresive prior to pulling up in the Welsh National and hoping he can resume progress today.
5.30 - UPSWING - Going with Derek O'Connor again and can hopefully follow up his Tuesday win for the same connections. Looked progresive prior to pulling up in the Welsh National and hoping he can resume progress today.
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SAMOAN
Guest
5.30 - AMIGO - Already with Upswing, but this one goes well fresh and overall has solid form. Gina Andrews booked and each way shout at 40's
ONEDUNME
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Not as good a day money-wise as my selections may have indicated but I reckon I'm about level and don't fancy making a profit today - too many selections which means I need a winner or a couple of places in every race but, it being the last day, I'm happy to chuck some money at it for some entertainment. This is my favourite day. Tuesday is the day I go but this day is the best, I think because:
1/ I know what my maximum loss on the week is going to be
2/ I know I haven't got to keep getting up and drinking for much longer
lol) and putting my body through to mangle
3/ It being Friday, there will be plenty of people out and about in the pub , both for the racing and afterwards. It's like a watered down Xmas break up day.
It would be the climax of the week if it wasn't for the small fact of "derby weekend" with the football.
My selections are below (I'll leave out the small ews on the McManus horses)
130 I'm stuck with an antepost bet on Iv Gorbatov at 5/2 which is now 13/2 and Clan Des Oboeux but today's bet is Leoncavallo ew at 25/1 so not expecting a profit from race 1
210 Great Field ew and Hawk Hight 33/1
250 As race one, stuck with a bet on Barters Hill at 5/2 and it's currently twice that price. been a consistent theme this week. I like the chances of bleu et Rouge at 10/1 and work has it that Ganster (15/2) is likely to go off much shorter come racetime
330 I've no antepost bet but Don Poli has always been in my mind for the Gold Cup BUT Mr Mcoy has changed my mind and I've switched to Don Cossack. I've also gone for the reverse forecast on both of them
410 On the Fringe - I think this one will win and I've added to my antepost bet on it. AyupCharlie is one I have in my mind from previous cheltenham meetings (I haven't researched it) but I've gone ew at 10/1 on that
450 Squirter (or whatever the fuck it's called) is probably one of only 2 or 3 antepost bets that I've ended up with an advantage on having backed it ew at 10/1 and then again win bet at 7/1.
530 I'm hoping JP wins the last three races and puts me well up on the week
as I'm on Next Sensation at 10/1 and 8/1 (currently 9s) and I've added a bet on Velvet Maker at 12/1.
Good luck all
1/ I know what my maximum loss on the week is going to be
2/ I know I haven't got to keep getting up and drinking for much longer
lol) and putting my body through to mangle3/ It being Friday, there will be plenty of people out and about in the pub , both for the racing and afterwards. It's like a watered down Xmas break up day.
It would be the climax of the week if it wasn't for the small fact of "derby weekend" with the football.
My selections are below (I'll leave out the small ews on the McManus horses)
130 I'm stuck with an antepost bet on Iv Gorbatov at 5/2 which is now 13/2 and Clan Des Oboeux but today's bet is Leoncavallo ew at 25/1 so not expecting a profit from race 1
210 Great Field ew and Hawk Hight 33/1
250 As race one, stuck with a bet on Barters Hill at 5/2 and it's currently twice that price. been a consistent theme this week. I like the chances of bleu et Rouge at 10/1 and work has it that Ganster (15/2) is likely to go off much shorter come racetime
330 I've no antepost bet but Don Poli has always been in my mind for the Gold Cup BUT Mr Mcoy has changed my mind and I've switched to Don Cossack. I've also gone for the reverse forecast on both of them
410 On the Fringe - I think this one will win and I've added to my antepost bet on it. AyupCharlie is one I have in my mind from previous cheltenham meetings (I haven't researched it) but I've gone ew at 10/1 on that
450 Squirter (or whatever the fuck it's called) is probably one of only 2 or 3 antepost bets that I've ended up with an advantage on having backed it ew at 10/1 and then again win bet at 7/1.
530 I'm hoping JP wins the last three races and puts me well up on the week
as I'm on Next Sensation at 10/1 and 8/1 (currently 9s) and I've added a bet on Velvet Maker at 12/1.Good luck all
Seen
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Good luck all.
2.50
I fancy AURILLAC at a big price in this (40/1). He's got quite a bit to find on official ratings (hence the price) but this is a horse who has been crying out for a step up to today's trip of 3 miles and I'm sure he'll improve massively for it.
He was tapped for toe in all 3 of his 2m bumpers (still managed to win one of them) and the tactical affair over the same trip on his hurdling debut was no good to him. He stepped up to 2m3f on the galloping track Chepstow next time and still found it too sharp. He managed to win well in the end but only after coming under strong pressure 3 out (went 18.0 in-running, SP 5/2).
I don't think this race is as competitive as it looks on paper with many unknowns regarding the trip, and this race has been won by two 33/1 shots in the last 6 years.
Worth a go at this price I think, especially with a bookie who are paying 4 places.
2.50
I fancy AURILLAC at a big price in this (40/1). He's got quite a bit to find on official ratings (hence the price) but this is a horse who has been crying out for a step up to today's trip of 3 miles and I'm sure he'll improve massively for it.
He was tapped for toe in all 3 of his 2m bumpers (still managed to win one of them) and the tactical affair over the same trip on his hurdling debut was no good to him. He stepped up to 2m3f on the galloping track Chepstow next time and still found it too sharp. He managed to win well in the end but only after coming under strong pressure 3 out (went 18.0 in-running, SP 5/2).
I don't think this race is as competitive as it looks on paper with many unknowns regarding the trip, and this race has been won by two 33/1 shots in the last 6 years.
Worth a go at this price I think, especially with a bookie who are paying 4 places.
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SAMOAN
Guest
Can't Lose on the week ( MALL DINI the highlight yesterday ) and going with smaller stakes on outsiders today -
2.50 OPEN EAGLE - Shantou Village caught the eye, but a big no thankyou at 4's. OE is one of the lesser Mullins runners, but Mikey Fogerty had a similar one in the Bumper and got it into 2nd. Bit more required to be fair at this level, but is clearly useful and a fair EW shout at 33's.
3.30 CARLINGFORD LOUGH - Respectable 9th in this last Year and returns here in good form. Officially has plenty to do, bu big fan of the trainer and Barry Geraghty gets the ride.
4.10 NEED TO KNOW - Going with Derek O'Connor again in the Foxhunters and not to worried about this one's form and price as he did ride one with a similar profile back in 2011 ( ZEMSKY, won at 40's ) Has won his share of Points, but is 0/11 in Hunter Chases and this goes a long way to explaining the top price 66's on offer.
4.50 TULLY EAST - Ground is a worry, but good recent strike rate and ran well last time in a grade 1. This run suggested he is still progressing and could easily go well at 33's.
2.50 OPEN EAGLE - Shantou Village caught the eye, but a big no thankyou at 4's. OE is one of the lesser Mullins runners, but Mikey Fogerty had a similar one in the Bumper and got it into 2nd. Bit more required to be fair at this level, but is clearly useful and a fair EW shout at 33's.
3.30 CARLINGFORD LOUGH - Respectable 9th in this last Year and returns here in good form. Officially has plenty to do, bu big fan of the trainer and Barry Geraghty gets the ride.
4.10 NEED TO KNOW - Going with Derek O'Connor again in the Foxhunters and not to worried about this one's form and price as he did ride one with a similar profile back in 2011 ( ZEMSKY, won at 40's ) Has won his share of Points, but is 0/11 in Hunter Chases and this goes a long way to explaining the top price 66's on offer.
4.50 TULLY EAST - Ground is a worry, but good recent strike rate and ran well last time in a grade 1. This run suggested he is still progressing and could easily go well at 33's.
Topdog
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SAMOAN
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Was never going to risk much today, so happy with TULLY EAST placing at 50's. CARLINGFORD LOUGH, is just a bit short of top class, but 4th in a Gold Cup is always a fair effort.