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The Cheltenham Festival 2016
- Thread starter ONEDUNME
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Seen
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1.30
ALTIOR is currently 4/1 but tends to hit a flat spot in his races so I'm confident he'll trade bigger in-running. I'll be trying for 8/1 up to 100/1 or so, he has some of the best form in the race and should be storming up the hill at the business end.
PENGLAI PAVILION probably found the race coming too soon last time and should run well at a price.
ALTIOR is currently 4/1 but tends to hit a flat spot in his races so I'm confident he'll trade bigger in-running. I'll be trying for 8/1 up to 100/1 or so, he has some of the best form in the race and should be storming up the hill at the business end.
PENGLAI PAVILION probably found the race coming too soon last time and should run well at a price.
ONEDUNME
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Strange day for me. No winners out of the first four races, about even on the fith (would have been a profit if The Governas had stood up) and then good profits in the last two races. I know you should never chase losses but I doubled up on Minella before the race so sitting on a good profit after day 1 which I don't really deserve to be honest as most of my fancies were shite.
Will post up today's after a check
Will post up today's after a check
ONEDUNME
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130 I backed Yorkhill for a decent bet in both the races it was entered in. Normally that would mean I was sitting on a much better price than on the day but, as has been discussed, the antepost market it absolute bollox with nearly every horse drifting yesterday compared to their prices before. I'm happy with the 3/1 though (currenlty 5/2).
I've never been convinced about Yanworth but it's a JP horse and they win me money every year (getting me out of the pooh on many occasions - usually at big prices - yesterday being the most recent example) so I have to put something on it. A small saver bet then which will see me starting the day slightly down after race one should it win.
210 More of That is one of the few horses that I am happy with the early price for (I won't keep going on about Double Shuffle
). I'm on that at 3/1, currently 15/8. I'm not a big fan of Barry Geraghty (I know many are, just my view) and I don't see his name as a positive on my selections but I'm hoping he can steer this home.
I'll be looking for an each way bet. Torn between Vyta du Roc and Blaklion so I'll probably watch the prices and see which gets the most support - both currently 10/1
250 Small bets on the three McManus horses. I'm liking the value of Prologue with the option of an each way bet at 10/1 with five places or 8/1 with six places (coral). It is normal to take into account previous Cheltenham form this week and if you look at this one, you will see that he unseated rider which isn't great but if you look into it further, the write up says "effort 2 out, every chance when jinked right and unseated rider before last" I'm convinced and, because I have other bets in the race I'm leaning towards the 6 place and the lower price.
330 I'm on Gods Own at small stakes at 33/1 and 28/1 and I can't even remember why but I appear to have backed Felix Yonger ew without the fav at 6/1. Dunno where that one came from but I'm stuck with it. Luckily I don't feel strongly enough about any of the others for it to be a problem, although I would probably be on Special Tiara ew at 18s and may still stick a little bit on if I'm up from the previous bets by the time this race comes around. I've also got two free bets in the bank from Paddy Power yesterday (presumably Holywell and My Tent or Yours both finishing second) so I may use one on ST. I have one lined up for the bumper.
410 The JP McManus benefit race so I won't be backing anything that isn't running in gold and green. I'm on Jossies Orders antepost at 5/2 which means that, of course, the price on the day is higher at 11/4 but I think I'll make my main bet Quantitative Easing ew, 4 places at 8/1 and smaller ew bets on the other three JP runners. JP usually has at least one 20/1 + runner at the festival and Cantlow could be this year's.
450 No antepost bets on this one so I'm looking at two at 9/1 and 12/1 in Campeador and Jaleo. The latter is trained by JP Ferguson and this will be his last Cheltenham as he is hanging up his training licence for a better job. Racing being what he is, he is sure to have a winner this week and I'm hoping it's not his other horse in this race at 33/1.
530 I've posted elsewhere on the back of one of Punter's posts that I'll be on New to This Town at 10/1 (available at 11/1). My free win bet is going on Augusta Kate at 9/1 and I'm having another each way bet on another of Ferguson's High Bridge at 12/1. I can't ignore the McManus horse Castello Sforza at 11/1 so small stakes on that but with the option of increasing it if I'm still up on the week. If not, I will leave the small stakes and, of course, it will romp home.
Good luck to all
I've never been convinced about Yanworth but it's a JP horse and they win me money every year (getting me out of the pooh on many occasions - usually at big prices - yesterday being the most recent example) so I have to put something on it. A small saver bet then which will see me starting the day slightly down after race one should it win.
210 More of That is one of the few horses that I am happy with the early price for (I won't keep going on about Double Shuffle
). I'm on that at 3/1, currently 15/8. I'm not a big fan of Barry Geraghty (I know many are, just my view) and I don't see his name as a positive on my selections but I'm hoping he can steer this home.I'll be looking for an each way bet. Torn between Vyta du Roc and Blaklion so I'll probably watch the prices and see which gets the most support - both currently 10/1
250 Small bets on the three McManus horses. I'm liking the value of Prologue with the option of an each way bet at 10/1 with five places or 8/1 with six places (coral). It is normal to take into account previous Cheltenham form this week and if you look at this one, you will see that he unseated rider which isn't great but if you look into it further, the write up says "effort 2 out, every chance when jinked right and unseated rider before last" I'm convinced and, because I have other bets in the race I'm leaning towards the 6 place and the lower price.
330 I'm on Gods Own at small stakes at 33/1 and 28/1 and I can't even remember why but I appear to have backed Felix Yonger ew without the fav at 6/1. Dunno where that one came from but I'm stuck with it. Luckily I don't feel strongly enough about any of the others for it to be a problem, although I would probably be on Special Tiara ew at 18s and may still stick a little bit on if I'm up from the previous bets by the time this race comes around. I've also got two free bets in the bank from Paddy Power yesterday (presumably Holywell and My Tent or Yours both finishing second) so I may use one on ST. I have one lined up for the bumper.
410 The JP McManus benefit race so I won't be backing anything that isn't running in gold and green. I'm on Jossies Orders antepost at 5/2 which means that, of course, the price on the day is higher at 11/4 but I think I'll make my main bet Quantitative Easing ew, 4 places at 8/1 and smaller ew bets on the other three JP runners. JP usually has at least one 20/1 + runner at the festival and Cantlow could be this year's.
450 No antepost bets on this one so I'm looking at two at 9/1 and 12/1 in Campeador and Jaleo. The latter is trained by JP Ferguson and this will be his last Cheltenham as he is hanging up his training licence for a better job. Racing being what he is, he is sure to have a winner this week and I'm hoping it's not his other horse in this race at 33/1.
530 I've posted elsewhere on the back of one of Punter's posts that I'll be on New to This Town at 10/1 (available at 11/1). My free win bet is going on Augusta Kate at 9/1 and I'm having another each way bet on another of Ferguson's High Bridge at 12/1. I can't ignore the McManus horse Castello Sforza at 11/1 so small stakes on that but with the option of increasing it if I'm still up on the week. If not, I will leave the small stakes and, of course, it will romp home.
Good luck to all
S
SAMOAN
Guest
2.10 - SHANESHILL - Holds decent festival form and is 2 form 3 over fences. Ruby Walsh is on the other Mullins runner, but IMO not much between the pair. Always thought he would get 3m,so not as worried as some on that score. Thought 14;s would be fair, so a must bet for me at 20's.
2.50 - DIAMOND KING - Lightly raced and did look useful in his early career. 9's maybe looks a bit skinny for one that will require a career best, but the combination of ability, scope, Gordon Elliott and Davy Russell offers plenty of confidence.
3.30 - SIZING GRANITE - Very smart as a novice, but plenty to prove now. Ground coming in his favour though and now in new hands, so hopefully the change of scenery will help.
5.30 - Going with 3 in the Bumper, 2 of which have been mentioned already in this thread -
CASTELLO SIORZA
NEW TO THIS TOWN
RATHER BE ( Punchers chance IMO at 66's )
2.50 - DIAMOND KING - Lightly raced and did look useful in his early career. 9's maybe looks a bit skinny for one that will require a career best, but the combination of ability, scope, Gordon Elliott and Davy Russell offers plenty of confidence.
3.30 - SIZING GRANITE - Very smart as a novice, but plenty to prove now. Ground coming in his favour though and now in new hands, so hopefully the change of scenery will help.
5.30 - Going with 3 in the Bumper, 2 of which have been mentioned already in this thread -
CASTELLO SIORZA
NEW TO THIS TOWN
RATHER BE ( Punchers chance IMO at 66's )
Kegman
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Couple of winners with Blaklion and Any Currency and ew with Bless the Wings makes it a decent enough day.
Day 3
1.30 - Black Hercules
2.10 - Leave at Dawn
2.50 - Josses Hill
3.30 -Thistlecrack
4.10 - Johns Spirit
4.50 -
5.30 - Doctor Harper
Day 3
1.30 - Black Hercules
2.10 - Leave at Dawn
2.50 - Josses Hill
3.30 -Thistlecrack
4.10 - Johns Spirit
4.50 -
5.30 - Doctor Harper
ONEDUNME
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Les than enthusiastic about today so I'll make it brief. Still a little bit in profit on the week so if I can go into Friday level on the week, it's something I would have been happy with before the week started.
130 Garde La Victoire 4/1 and Outlander 9/2. Also backing black Hercules at 6/1 with a free bet
210 One of those races I hate with so many JP McManus runners that I don't have the option of actually choosing a runner myself as I automatically have to back them. Leave at Dawn, Cup Final, If in Doubt 7/1, 8/1, 12/1
250 I'm on Smashing ew which is currently 28/1 and Gilgamboa at 40/1. Needless to say, I'm not expecting the forecast
330 I've had an antespost bet on Thistlecrack and I can't see it beaten today to be honest but ew bets on Cole Harden and whisper 7/1 and 12/1
410 Full Shift ew at 20/1 (hoorah - a price that's actually bigger than the one on the day!!!!) Stilletto ew 10/1 (5 places)
450 I backed Limini twice antepost and also had it with a silly treble with Vroom Vroom and so I've ended up with the position to be able to lay the horse at odds on to get all of my stakes back, and make a profit regardless of the outcome. I still make more if it wins though and I think it will. That gives me the luxury of being able to stick a couple of ew bets on Bloody Mary 12/1 and Smart Talk 7/1
530 Cause of Causes 8/1 (won for me last year) and upswing 9/1 and Silvergrove 18/1 (currently 14s). If I get a free bet during the day, I'll stick it on Doctor Harper to win (or if one of my selections pulls out) but I have too many races with three selections in to keep upping my stakes. You can get to the stage where you've got to win to break even if you're not careful
130 Garde La Victoire 4/1 and Outlander 9/2. Also backing black Hercules at 6/1 with a free bet
210 One of those races I hate with so many JP McManus runners that I don't have the option of actually choosing a runner myself as I automatically have to back them. Leave at Dawn, Cup Final, If in Doubt 7/1, 8/1, 12/1
250 I'm on Smashing ew which is currently 28/1 and Gilgamboa at 40/1. Needless to say, I'm not expecting the forecast
330 I've had an antespost bet on Thistlecrack and I can't see it beaten today to be honest but ew bets on Cole Harden and whisper 7/1 and 12/1
410 Full Shift ew at 20/1 (hoorah - a price that's actually bigger than the one on the day!!!!) Stilletto ew 10/1 (5 places)
450 I backed Limini twice antepost and also had it with a silly treble with Vroom Vroom and so I've ended up with the position to be able to lay the horse at odds on to get all of my stakes back, and make a profit regardless of the outcome. I still make more if it wins though and I think it will. That gives me the luxury of being able to stick a couple of ew bets on Bloody Mary 12/1 and Smart Talk 7/1
530 Cause of Causes 8/1 (won for me last year) and upswing 9/1 and Silvergrove 18/1 (currently 14s). If I get a free bet during the day, I'll stick it on Doctor Harper to win (or if one of my selections pulls out) but I have too many races with three selections in to keep upping my stakes. You can get to the stage where you've got to win to break even if you're not careful
rcgills
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Today's pin-sticking picks (not hopeful now that I see only one of them mentioned by Kegman or ODM, but never mind). All e/w except Garde La Victoire
13:30 Garde La Victoire @ 7/2
14:10 Missed Approach @ 11/1
14:50 Village Vic @ 25/1
15:30 Aux Ptits Soins @ 16/1
16:10 Fingal Bay @ 10/1
13:30 Garde La Victoire @ 7/2
14:10 Missed Approach @ 11/1
14:50 Village Vic @ 25/1
15:30 Aux Ptits Soins @ 16/1
16:10 Fingal Bay @ 10/1
Seen
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2 per race, apart from the last where I'll be trying for forecast & tricast glory!
1.30
9/1 - ZABANA
5/1 - BRISTOL DE MAI
2.10
9/1 - OUR KAEMPFER
16/1 - TAGLIETELLE
2.50
40/1 - GILGAMBOA
14/1 - AL FEROF
3.30
7/1 - COLE HARDEN
11/1 - SAPHIR DU RHEU
4.10
14/1 - ART MAURESQUE
12/1 - FULL SHIFT
4.50
7/1 - SMART TALK
22/1 - TEA IN TRANSVAAL
5.30
25/1 - A GOOD SKIN
25/1 - THE JOB IS RIGHT
16/1 - SAMBREMONT
14/1 - SILVERGROVE
33/1 - ALTERNATIF
25/1 - TOP WOOD
1.30
9/1 - ZABANA
5/1 - BRISTOL DE MAI
2.10
9/1 - OUR KAEMPFER
16/1 - TAGLIETELLE
2.50
40/1 - GILGAMBOA
14/1 - AL FEROF
3.30
7/1 - COLE HARDEN
11/1 - SAPHIR DU RHEU
4.10
14/1 - ART MAURESQUE
12/1 - FULL SHIFT
4.50
7/1 - SMART TALK
22/1 - TEA IN TRANSVAAL
5.30
25/1 - A GOOD SKIN
25/1 - THE JOB IS RIGHT
16/1 - SAMBREMONT
14/1 - SILVERGROVE
33/1 - ALTERNATIF
25/1 - TOP WOOD
S
SAMOAN
Guest
1.30 - L'EMI SERGE - Turned over at 5's on last time, but there was only the 3 runners. Still can't get away from his earlier potential and did run well at last Year's Festival.
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