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X FACTOR Betting

Beanie said:
I cant quite explain how big the post I just lost was...sob sob sob

In far less words...

The show is heamorraging ratings, and I see the main issue as being that the viewers havent yet been told who they should like. Usually by this point there is a clear indication from judges and producers as to who the main players are - whereas this year viewers are confused by the hot/cold week to week nature of the comments for most acts.

So this week I think we'll see two things...

a) the show will revert to backing the safe, 'higher quality' contestants such as The Risk and Janet - it needs them in the final.

b) the show will look to nail its colours to the mast and pick one or two others to invest in for the rest of the series. It needs a collection of 4 or 5 contenders in order to counteract the accusations that the talent this year is very poor.

Who that might be is the question...

Aside from the fact that I think Mischa's personality or public perception is damaged beyond repair, she has already turned in high quality performances with little public impact. I'd place Craig in the same category - already nailed a performance but failed to translate that into widespread support,and for that reason there's little point in investing time into generating it. As with all previous winners, there needs to be a natural fanbase there in the first place.

Frankie and Kitty are so damaged now as to have zero long term prospects.

Johnny is on the Wagner path - more talented but still, too much of a risk to promote to the final, particularly in a year of falling ratings, so likely to be jettisoned in a few weeks.

Rythmix have had little effort put into them so far, and given that they would direct attention away from The Risk were they to be promoted to the front, also represent too much of a gamble.

That leaves Sophie and Marcus. Sophie too is too much of a threat to the safer bet of Janet, although I'll be honest and say I've no idea what their plan is with her.

So to Marcus. Despite poor song choices in weeks one and two along with lukewarm comments, he has commanded fairly solid support, trending upwards week on week. His treatment last week was more confusing however...up first in the Strictly overlap, typical sacrificial lamb slot - and yet the song choice was suitable, the staging solid, and the comments full of praise.

One of the few plausible reasons would be to 'test' his current support before deciding whether or not to invest any time and effort in his story. Again, he is polling even more strongly than last week, and performing well on twitter, suggesting that if the producers want to give him a fair shake, then he is setup to take advantage of it.

His personality fits well with the X Factor - bubbly enough to be memorable, yet humble enough to stay on the right side of the press. In addition, if Craig's long term appeal is as limited as it so far seems to be, then they will need to show some support to a male to make the final couple of weeks.

Of course, in a year where producers intentions have been anything but clear and consistent, they may ignore him yet again this week, but at the odds he seems the most plausible 'other' option at the moment.

I would sign off by saying that should he make the final I'd expect the knife to be plunged squarely into his shoulder blades - yet another male winner certainly wont be on the XF christmas wish list...

I've invested heavily at 19s(mixture of high street and Betfair) and at 7/2-4/1 for a top 3 spot.

And yes the post I lost was longer than that ramble.
Click to expand...

Marcus top 3 bet landed, time to position the outright book for the final.

Survation puts all three neck and neck...
 
Well done Beanie. Must say, I lost interest ages ago. I'm just hoping Amelia comes in and gives me a nice payout
 
I haven't been following the show regularly but it seems a bit strange that an artiste can be voted off the show one week,then reappear a few weeks later,voice saved,and walk off with the top spot. Apart from that I have nothing against Amelia Lily-she's as good as Alexandra Burke and maybe there's a bit of snobbishness that she's from Middlesbrough and not Maidenhead.

Little Mix are poor and remind me of an even worse version of the Spice Girls,who couldn't sing either.Marcus seems a nice guy who will mature in time to either a Sammy Davis Junior or one of those celebrities hosting a third-rate game show like Family Fortunes,or interviewing soap stars on the settee like Paul O'Grady. Such a shame there's nobody of the calibre of Leona Lewis,or my all-time favourite Ben Mills..
 
I think it's complete bollocks. Most X-factor fans are oblivious or too stupid to witness the Machiavellian goings on until it comes to finals week, when they all turn into super sleuths.

HMV do this every year. All finalist's records are available for pre-order. After the result is announced, the availability of the runners up is removed. I guess that process also gives HMV staff an insight into who's the most popular :naughty

Fiiiiiiix!
 
The acts are duetting with their own mentors?! Consider that the cherry on the top of an all round shambolic season...

My overall book is looking healthy but I'm making a final play on Marcus.

I dont believe the show wants him to win, but this is a year that screams 'default winner' to me. I think the producers will need to very deliberately undermine him (more so than they have done thus far...) to get one of the others over the line.

All the hints from the show suggest Little Mix are struggling for votes, despite being heavily pimped and dominating fan polls/twitter/judges reactions for a few weeks. Tulisa's constant begging and repeated assertions that they are not safe tells me that they are still suffering from the curse of the girl band whereby they need to work much harder than individual artists for their votes.

Amelia has already been bottom two, and seems the least appealing to the floating voter. There is the nagging doubt amongst most voters that while she maybe deserved a second chance, she does not deserve to be the winner above two acts who have sung every week.

Marcus I think still represents the act most likely to benefit from floating votes, simply by being male, generally likeable, and by putting on the most entertaining performances.

I also think Gary may have 'gone rogue'...his comments in recent weeks (where he criticised Amelia for being shouty in the sing off with Craig, a definite departure from what his script will have been) and his criticism of Little Mix over the last two weeks just when the show will have been attempting to build their momentum again hints that as he is unlikely to return, he no longer has any need to follow their instructions.

Of course the have much more power than he does, but its unlikely they will perform a full blown crucifixion on Marcus in the final - it's the flagship broadcast and it still needs to be positive and entertaining.

So I suspect Amelia and LM will get a few favours, but in the absence of a coordinated effort to dampen Marcus' support it won't be enough to stop the show edging towards it's 'default' conclusion.

I've had a play at 3.60, hopefully a final wee bonus from this series.
 
There was also a report today from Cowell, suggesting the winner might also be awarded their own TV show. I'm wondering whether Simon is gearing up for yet another winning male failure, as Marcus is the only one of the finalists suitable for TV.

His image for pop music has taken a battering with his Little Richard impersonations.
 
Winning Act:

Little Mix 11/8 (Coral/Ladbrokes/Sky Bet)
Marcus Collins 9/4 (Blue SQ/Stan James)
Amelia Lily 5/2 (general)

Fourteenth Elimination Odds/To Finish Third:

Amelia Lily 11/8 (general)
Marcus Collins 9/5 (Bet365)
Little Mix 3/1 (Bet365/Betfred/Blue SQ/Sportingbet)

To Finish Second:

Marcus Collins 7/4 (Bet365/Coral)
LIttle Mix 2/1 (Paddy Power/WIlliam Hill)
Amelia Lily 2/1 (Bet365)

Straight Forecast: (Odds from William Hill)

Little Mix/Marcus 5/2
Little Mix/Amelia Lily 11/4
Marcus/Little Mix 4/1
Amelia Lily/Little Mix 9/2
Marcus/Amelia Lily 13/2
Amelia Lily/Marcus 7/1

============

The duets:

Amelia Lily/Kelly Rowland - Tina Turner's 'River Deep Mountain High'
Marcus Collins/Gary Barlow - Billy Joel's 'More Than A Woman'
Little Mix/Tulisa Contostavlos - Alicia Keys' 'If I Ain't Got You/Empire State of Mind'

I'm not sure what else the three acts will be singing though.

Random thoughts:

Little Mix finally get the 'pimp slot' end shot in the Marks & Spencer ad but obviously so have Amelia Lily and Marcus.

Little Mix polled 51% in Digital Spy's 'Who Do You Want To Win' poll:

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s103...ctor-win-forecast-by-digital-spy-readers.html

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s103/the-x-factor/

Any of the three acts left without too much bias can win and Amelia Lily could throw a spanner in the works. To me, she looks most like a popstar of the three and if Syco make a mistake with her first time around they have 'plenty of time' to make her a star considering how young she is. Amelia Lily wanting to be a West End star is an eyebrow-raiser and a worrier if I was Simon Cowell though.

I maintain my stance that Little Mix need to win to be successful but Marcus Collins, on the other hand, will need a lot of luck because even with Syco's blessing, historically they simply don't have a clue with male soloists.

Of course, as stated by others in the forum, winning TXF is not correlative of actual success or that Syco will be that bothered in helping the winner maintain any form of success.

I don't think I'm going to win my straight forecast bet of Little Mix 1st, Marcus Collins 2nd though.

History will be made in TXF this weekend with a group, a white female or a black male finally prevailing though.
 
Yougov is the only poll worth looking at for XF really...out this morning and gives Marcus 38, LM 34, AL 28.

Looking at the data the key thing to me is that People who chose LM are less likely to vote, people who chose Marcus the most likely. Expected the reverse.

I've a feeling Cowell might rather LM don't win, as he will want them to have the greater freedom non winners have.

Still Marcus winning for me, barring a major Saturday night nobble.
 
Should say those yougov figs are for those who have decided...31-28-21 for all, so even worse news for Amelia.
 
This is a bit over the top from X Factor isn't it? How long spent on each act visiting their school, their family and meeting the unwashed? Utter guff!
 
Show has been a bit of a shambles so far imo. Everyone getting a bit carried away with the 'Wembley' thing.

Neither Marcus or LM doing particularly well, chance for AL to gain some ground, and she needs it....particularly as she will already be way behind in the voting given that lines have been open for 25 mins.
 
Open goal missed - Amelia 3rd.

Edit: She's lost her voice too. Cant see much prospect of her making Sunday.
 
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