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X FACTOR Betting

I thought it'd be ever so slightly Machiavellian but they must be saving that until next week.

Misha's likely to have the least number of votes next week so will they have a sing-off to ensure she gets to the final three? They didn't have one last year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_X_Factor_(UK_series_7)

I'm in disbelief that Little Mix are 'Plan A' but when the options are Marcus Collins (limited appeal long-term surely?), Amelia Lily (too young and Syco has no idea what to do with her) and Misha Bryan (PR problems loom because of the 'bully' stories but can she bounce back like Chris Brown?), this year is very much a salvage job.
 
I doubt Mischa will bounce to any great extent, there's not much evidence that acts which are continually b2 can keep doing so. However, a hatchet job on Amelia is more likely as a way of getting MB into finals night.

I dont really think the producers care who wins in terms of commercial success as it isn't a particularly important factor. However, they do have the chance to get a group over the line for the first time, and I expect they'll continue to throw the kitchen sink at it.

The key difference between LM and One Direction is that Matt and Rebecca were never nobbled, and had built up such an advantage by the final few weeks that no amount of pimping of One Direction could bridge the gap. This year, the show has assassinated the main rivals one by one - apart from Marcus...and his vote certainly won't be anywhere near what Matt was managing last year.

I suspect he and LM are polling roughly similar numbers, in which case the producers can save their final assassination for the last two weeks.
 
...so how are they going to get Misha into the final ahead of Amelia Lily!? By making them sing two songs and have one of 'em being Motown and the other being 'The Song To Get You To The Final'. Kelly Rowland will nobble Amelia Lily's chances to help Misha.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s103...hemes-revealed-as-motown-and-final-songs.html

Amelia Lily wants to be appear in a West End musical specifically 'Wicked'. Looks like she may have a chance to be in it sooner than she thinks...

http://uk.omg.yahoo.com/news/x-fact...lnYnJvdGhlcgRwdANzZWN0aW9ucwR0ZXN0Aw--;_ylv=3

I do feel that Simon Cowell's general aversion to white females will continue this year (he only let Michelle McManus win to kill off 'Pop Idol' and start 'The X Factor').

Predicted finishing order:

*WINNER* Little Mix
2nd. Marcus Collins
3rd. Misha Bryan
4th. Amelia Lily
 
I'll be very pissed off financially, but quite rightly smug if Misha does make it to the top 3. :D
 
Hmmm. Who will be partnering whom in the final!?

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s103...ble-jls-one-direction-for-x-factor-final.html

JLS/One Direction with Little Mix? Leona Lewis with Marcus Collins? Michael Buble with Amelia Lily or Misha Bryan? Is it really THAT simple!?

EDIT: This morning's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1155: Following the news that this weekend's X Factor will have no sing-off, William Hill have cut the odds of Misha B to get the boot.

She had already been 5/6 favourite to go this weekend, but she is now 8/13 with Bodog.com's 10/11 the best price available.

Amelia Lily is 13/8 second favourite to go, Little Mix are 14/1 and Marcus Collins 16/1.

"Misha has found herself in the bottom two on more than one occasion this series and it has been her brilliant 'save-me' performances that have kept her in the show," said Joe Crilly of William Hill.

"She may well come unstuck this weekend."

Little Mix are the 7/5 favourites with Boylesports to win the TV show, Marcus is 13/8 (Betfred), Amelia is 6/1 (Boylesports, sportingbet) and Misha is out at 14/1 (bet365).
 
Misha thinks she's going out on Sunday night and has thrown an absolute strop, says The Sun.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s103...-factor-misha-b-convinced-shell-get-axed.html

The current odds suggest that yes, that Misha might be on her way out...

Winning Act:

Little Mix 11/8 (Boylesports)
Marcus Collins 13/8 (Bet365/Betfred/Blue SQ/Coral/Ladbrokes/Paddy Power/totesport/William Hill)
Amelia Lily 6/1 (Boylesports)
Misha Bryan 16/1 (Bet365/Sky Bet/Sportingbet)

Thirteenth Elimination Odds:

Misha Bryan 8/11 (Boylesports/Ladbrokes/Paddy Power/Sportingbet)
Amelia Lily 7/4 (Bet365/Betfred/totesport/William Hill)
Marcus Collins 16/1 (Sportingbet)
Little Mix 16/1 (Bet365/Betfred/Blue SQ/totesport)

Straight Forecast: (Odds from Stan James)

Marcus Collins/Little Mix 5/2
Little Mix/Marcus Collins 5/2
Marcus Collins/Amelia Lily 8/1
Little Mix/Amelia Lily 9/1
Amelia Lily/Marcus Collins 12/1
Marcus Collins/Mischa Bryan 14/1
Amelia Lily/Little Mix 14/1
Little Mix/Mischa Bryan 16/1
Mischa Bryan/Marcus Collins 20/1
Mischa Bryan/Little Mix 25/1
Amelia Lily/Mischa Bryan 50/1
Mischa Bryan/Amelia Lily 66/1

...but they still have to sing the songs though. Marks and Spencer wouldn't be so silly to prime Amelia Lily but then switch back to Misha Bryan only to see their 'original' choice not be in the final, would they!?

I'm a little weary how Rebecca Ferguson 'surprisingly' finished second to throw 'a spanner in the works' last year but I'll have £50 on Little Mix to win and Marcus Collins to finish second at 5/2 over at Stan James.

I'm not betting on this week's elimination though.
 
id say it will be amelia and mischa bottom two and if they want to keep mischa in the amelia goes
 
misha and amelia just done first songs. based on that misha has gone.
 
little mix were pretty poor and got their first bit of major negativity. they also made a mistake but none of the judges picked up on it. doubt they are in any danger though. marcus with the pimp slot first half, does that mean he is weaker than LM?
 
fuckin hell marcus was shit. made my ears bleed. of course the judges became tone deaf for the performance!
 
second songs
misha b - decent performance but judges already talking like she's already gone.
amelia - competent performance of a more memorable song - in the final imo.
marcus - awful again. this time the judges noticed and commented. should be ok but may be worth a small stakes bottom 2 punt. nah strike that he's noy going to fall below misha at this stage.
littlemix - shaky start, but ended well. gary negative (he's competitive bastard), but the crowd are behind them. should be safe.
 
About right Rob. I noticed a certain pattern tonight too...

Misha B - Definitely some 'parting' comments there. Terrific song choices and by far the strongest performer, regardless of Amelia. Interesting what Gary said, in suggesting that she can't win because of what Tulisa accused her of.

Amelia - Big ramping and the producers are certainly trying their best to manufacture an alternative winner.

Marcus - Boring as hell - they also made him really gay in his first VT. Not sure how that'll play out, as they usually keep sexuality under wraps. Comments are confusing for him. Judges ganging up on him as if there's a producer-led conspiracy to dent his support - but why have him on so late in the show? Very confusing. I have no doubts he'll lose votes this week though.

LittleMix - Didn't one of them forget the lyrics in the first song? That girl with the red hair just stopped singing at one point, but the judges didn't mention it. I still can't help but think there's some autotune at work with these girls.

Everyone's saying LittleMix to win. I'm not sure! I wonder if going last tonight was a helping hand from the producers to get them into the final.
 
yes LM made a mistake first song. i think she was distracted by having to remove the mike from the stand. the crowd are so behind them though that even when the judges give them some criticism they are almost shouted down. hope they can do it as onlt win bet left and not intending to invest in the others as can't see any value anymore
 
Just got in headline on front of star today saying one of little mix's fathers is a murderer
 
No it doesn't, it says he was jailed. And reading into the story, the original conviction for murder was overturned on appeal.

If you're only only going to read the big words on the front of a shit newspaper, it can't be that hard to get them right can it?
 
Updated odds after Saturday's performances...

Winning Act:

Little Mix 7/5 (Bet365)
Marcus Collins 2/1 (Bet365/Coral/Ladbrokes)
Amelia Lily 3/1 (Blue SQ/Betfred/Boylesports/Coral/SPortingbet/totesport)
Misha Bryan 22/1 (Sportingbet)

Amelia Lily's odds are coming in. Marcus and Misha's odds are drifting. Can Amelia Lily do the unlikely and win now!?

Thirteenth Elimination Odds:

Misha Bryan 4/11 (Blue SQ/Boylesports/Sky Bet/Sportingbet)
Amelia Lily 11/2 (Bet365/Betfred/totesport/William Hill)
Marcus Collins 12/1 (Coral/Stan James)
Little Mix 14/1 (Boylesports)

Misha's still the same price as she was just before singing as she's been gambled into 4/11 from 8/11. The judges think she's a goner. It looks like they're generally playing it straight this year. Misha looks good as gone as Janet was last week.

Amelia Lily drifts a bit, Marcus's odds are coming in a little bit though. Little Mix seem to be safe.
 
there's too much negative buzz around for marcus not to have a small scale dabble at those odds - so marcus to be eliminated @13.5 betfair - 0.8pts. it's probably wrong so don't take it as a strong recommendation.
 
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