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X FACTOR Betting

Saw him last week in Crawley flanked by people, i like him i say let him be on it
 
Digital Spy are probably looking smug that their ante-post top three is now 'back from the dead'...

1. Amelia Lily
2. Marcus Collins
3. Janet Devlin

...but the rest of their top sixteen is shot to pieces though.

http://www.betnod.com/threads/x-factor-betting.110/page-2#post-5697

VERY SPECULATIVE CLAPTRAP: The final three may be a 'first' in eight series in that we have a white female, a black male and a group (three demographics who have never won the show as it's been five white males and two black females who've won it before) so it should be bye-bye to Craig, Misha and Amelia Lily or Janet.

Marcus Collins can't win. He's this year's Rebecca Ferguson and they've handicapped him by making him a Fifties throwback (Gary Barlow...you're a rubbish mentor!).

This week's updated odds:

Winning Act:

Amelia Lily 7/2 (Boylesports)
Marcus Collins 7/2 (Boylesports)
Little Mix 9/2 (general)
Janet Devlin 5/1 (Betfred/Coral/Sportingbet/Stan James/totesport)
Craig Colton 6/1 (Bet365/Betfred/Sky Bet/totesport)
Misha Bryan 14/1 (Bet365/Boylesports/Coral/Sky Bet)

Well now...were the producers in on the Amelia Lily gamble or what!? It'll be a first for the show that a 'late' entry wins if she does! Little Mix are the other big positive movers!

Eleventh Elimination Odds:

Misha Bryan 7/4 (Blue SQ/Boylesports/Coral/Ladbrokes)
Janet Devlin 7/2 (Bet365/Betfred/Coral/totesport)
Little Mix 5/1 (Bet365/Betfred/totesport)
Craig Colton 6/1 (Sportingbet/Stan James)
Amelia Lily 11/1 (Paddy Power)
Marcus Collins 14/1 (Boylesports/Coral/Paddy Power/Stan James)

It's a trappy market. Misha looks doomed not to be in the final three but between now and then 'surprises' may happen. Janet and Craig are 'positive' movers for instance.

OT: Kitty Brucknell was replaced by Amelia Lily in the Marks and Spencer Christmas TV ad BEFORE she was officially announced as back in the contest! :unsure
 
Hmmm. I missed a question mark next to my exclamation mark in that sentence. It was supposed to be an opinion not fact as I hadn't seen the modified M&S TV ads since last Thursday.

I'm not sure how true it is and I probably came across someone exclaiming that it did happen over on the Digital Spy forums when looking around for thoughts on the final six but the best I can come up with is someone's observation on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/#!/elise_biebss/status/135475014601416704
 
They're changing the ads every single week, did it have the other 3 on there who had a chance to go back in?
 
my speculative bets ahead of saturday. as usual will look to hedge if necessary after performance.

misha b is likely to be bottom 2, but there is no value in her in either the bottom 2 market or the elimination market. so:

next elimination amelia lily @11.0 bodog - besides disliking her intensely i think there will be a rapid bringing back down to earth this week after the euphoria of last. she hasn't been in the news much and i suspect her underlying support will be less than others due to her absence. she's doing something upbeat and billie jean was a disaster previously. her supporters overrate her talent and i think the show will not be wanting her to win. if she ends up in the bottom 2 with misha b, i think the programme has a justifiable excuse to keep the manc.

bottom 2 marcus @6.0 bluesquare - marcus was seriously dampened last week (clear that the show favours craig) and i think this is the start of a gradual softening process. he is the upbeat entertainment of the show so i'm not so sure he'll be voted off now if indeed he ends up in the bottom 2, but i just can't see the public going for his retro song and dance routine every week. there is a rumour that one of the songs this week will be ghostbusters and i can't see anyone else doing it but him. i really can't see anyone picking up the phone to votre for the 80s 'dance classic' myself? if true it's heading for a train wreck. i think if he does go bottom 2 he'll be saved.

why i don't think it will be the others:
janet devlin - i think at this stage the irish vote is still strong enough to see her through whatever she churns out. she'll only need about 16% of the vote to be safe!
craig colton - gary's blue eyed boy i think will be given whatever support required to survive this week, which will include a song choice for all those mums voting for him to sigh 'awwww! bless him'
little mix - my belief is they are now plan a. not necessarily to win, but to make sure they get to the final for the best pre-career launch publicity that can be generated.
 
Hmmm. The odds movement has been a bit funny since I last posted the updated odds.

Eleventh Elimination Odds:

Misha Bryan 7/4 (Bet365/Blue SQ//Ladbrokes)
Janet Devlin 4/1 (Boyleports/Ladbrokes)
Craig Colton 5/1 (Betfred/Paddy Power)
Little Mix 15/2 (Bet365)
Amelia Lily 8/1 (general)
Marcus Collins 14/1 (Coral/Stan James)

To Be in the Bottom Two:

Misha Bryan 8/15 (Betfred/Paddy Power/Sky Bet)
Craig Colton 13/8 (Blue SQ/Betfred/Paddy Power/Sky Bet)
Little Mix 15/8 (Boylesports)
Janet Devlin 2/1 (Boylesports/Sky Bet)
Amelia Lily 4/1 (Boylesports)
Marcus Collins 5/1 (Blue SQ/Paddy Power/William Hill)

Craig and Amelia Lily have been nibbled at to go. Misha's fairly easy to back.

SCURRILOUS RUMOURS: Craig's been fighting off rumours that he's going out with former TXF finalist Danyl Johnson.

http://xfactor.tellymix.co.uk/conte...former-x-factor-contestant-danyl-johnson.html

OT: I didn't know Marcus was gay. Will the tweenage girls vote magically disappear for both Craig and Marcus!?
 
That was beautifully set up. Bye Craig :lol

And License to Kill is one of the better Bond songs. Sorry Louis, you're wrong.
 
whhoooaaaaahhhhh big ramping for Amelia. Plan A has been confirmed. We'll just have to see if the voters agree.
 
How predictable was that? That was the X-Factor we've been used to. One scouser to go first, then the other scouser performs last. Hmmmmm, no which one will go? haha :lol

Ok, bottom two for tomorrow: Craig and Janet
 
Ive backed that as soon as it finished and also had Marcus bottom two as cover
 
Gavster said:
How predictable was that? That was the X-Factor we've been used to. One scouser to go first, then the other scouser performs last. Hmmmmm, no which one will go? haha :lol

Ok, bottom two for tomorrow: Craig and Janet
Click to expand...
mmm... i can't see JD being bottom 2 if 'Somebody to Love' can't get her there. craig maybe? i still think amelia is looking weak... not sure how her vote will hold up. but the uk public don't get carried away with american schmaltz and will see right through the attempted sympathy bounce for misha b. she'll be bottom 2 again.
 
Someone called in extra factor show thing and said how MArcus wasnt that good and he got the last spot on purpose and a backing group for a reason etc
 
Yorkieacer said:
Someone called in extra factor show thing and said how MArcus wasnt that good and he got the last spot on purpose and a backing group for a reason etc
Click to expand...

I've never watched the extra factor Yorkie. I'm surprised they'd let someone give their secrets away like that. It was very contrived how they divided the two scousers by a whole show. Craig must know what's coming. I bet he's packed his bag already.

As for Marcus, he has gone very stale and samey. That interview with Rebecca Ferguson was such a set up. As if she's the fountain of knowledge. She said probably two words of any meaning throughout the whole of last series and that was her name. She's been in the business two minutes and she's lecturing a 'fellow scouser' to stick to his guns and sing Motown and look really old fashioned and out of touch if he wants to. It's hilarious how this show operates. :shit:shit:shit:shit:shit:shit

Bring on BBC;s The Voice and kill this nasty collection of charlatans.
 
Yorkieacer said:
Someone called in extra factor show thing and said how MArcus wasnt that good and he got the last spot on purpose and a backing group for a reason etc
Click to expand...
it's often difficult to tell the producer intentions but xtra factor has so few viewers that this opinion will hardly register in the votes. it seems a girl has to go! perhaps putting amelia on straight after janet was an attempt to engineer a comparison? thinking about it maybe this is another attempt to maneuvre janet into the bottom 3, but by giving janet universal praise, while slightly undermining lily seems to be counter-productive if that was the case? i think if craig comes bottom 2 he'll be saved and a sympathy bounce will have been engineered.
 
i have to say misha b for bottom 2 evens @skybet looks a steal. i've never been comfortable with this week though and think i may have a breather. i'll take stock tomorrow once the dust has settled and had time to look on youtube.
 
i can't find a strong enough bet post show for this week. too close to call, littlemix and janet should be safe and probably marcus. amelia borderline bottom 2. most at risk craig and misha. no idea who would be saved in any of the likely combinations so leaving at my small pre-show bets this week. good luck everyone.
one daft bet that might come up is janet to be called safe first.
 
It's Craig 4/11 vs. 2/1 Amelia Lily over at Stan James right now. The gamble on both of 'em started yesterday afternoon and it's lasted all the way through Sunday night despite some late money on Janet to be in the bottom two.
 
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