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X FACTOR Betting

Rob44 said:
my speculative bets ahead of saturday. as usual will look to hedge if necessary after performance.

next elimination amelia lily @11.0 bodog - besides disliking her intensely i think there will be a rapid bringing back down to earth this week after the euphoria of last. she hasn't been in the news much and i suspect her underlying support will be less than others due to her absence. she's doing something upbeat and billie jean was a disaster previously. her supporters overrate her talent and i think the show will not be wanting her to win. if she ends up in the bottom 2 with misha b, i think the programme has a justifiable excuse to keep the manc.
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ouch... so close...
 
This thread is actually better than the show itself! :lol

Keep it going lads. :thumb
 
Quater-Finals will be Marcus We.......sorry Motown Week.

What a fecking set-up.

fiddle.jpg


In a word.... FIDDLE!
 
Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1055: I'm excited about Saturday night, and not because a friend of mine has just turned 26 and is hosting a party. No, it's X Factor time once again and Little Mix remain market leaders with bet365 going a standout 21/10.

William Hill have been taken by the gamble and quote 15/8.

"We have never seen a plunge in price like this before and it could be the biggest X-Factor gamble ever landed should Little Mix win," said Hill's spokesman Joe Crilly.

"In the past favourites have always remained that way throughout the majority of the show but this year has been wide open and the girl group hold all the aces going into the final weeks."

Indeed four of the five remaining acts, with the exception being Misha B, have been favourites for the show at some stage.
Marcus Collins is now a general 5/2 chance while money has come for initial favourite Janet Devlin once again - she's 7/2 from 4/1.

Amelia Lily is 17/2 with Boylesports while Misha is a general 11/1 outsider.

The next elimination market doesn't quite reflect the outright betting, with Amelia shading favouritism at a general 2/1 ahead of 9/4 chance Misha - this is presumably because the layers think that Misha is less popular with the public, but more likely to be saved by the judges.

Janet is a 3/1 chance to be eliminated next with similar logic applicable - she's popular with the public but less so it seems with the panel - while Marcus and Little Mix would appear safe at 14s and 18s respectively.
 
This week's updated odds:

Winning Act:

Little Mix 2/1 (Bet365/Blue SQ)
Marcus Collins 5/2 (Boylesports/Coral/Ladbrokes/Paddy Power/Sportingbet)
Janet Devlin 7/2 (general)
Amelia Lily 17/2 (Boylesports)
Misha Bryan 12/1 (Bet365)

Little Mix are the new favourites. Meh. Absolutely bonkers. There is a need for a new girl band as the deluge of deathly dull boy bands is suffocating though. If they are to do well long-term, they'll probably have to win the show as I can't see them doing a JLS and doing well in spite of not winning. Proof that looks aren't everything?

Twelfth Elimination Odds:

Amelia Lily 2/1 (general)
Misha Bryan 9/4 (William Hill)
Janet Devlin 3/1 (Bet365/Betfred/Boylesports/Paddy Power/totesport/William Hill)
Marcus Collins 12/1 (Blue SQ/Boylesports/Coral/Paddy Power/Sportingbet/Stan James)
Little Mix 16/1 (Betfred/Ladbrokes/totesport)

To Be in the Bottom Two:

Misha Bryan 4/7 (William Hill)
Amelia Lily 4/6 (Blue SQ/Sky Bet)
Janet Devlin 6/4 (Boylesports/Paddy Power)
Little Mix 7/2 (Betfred/Boylesports/Sky Bet)
Marcus Collins 4/1 (Blue SQ/Sky Bet)

Who is this year's Tesco Mary and who is this year's Cher Lloyd? |It could very well be Amelia Lily vs. Misha Bryan, the only two of the five to have been in the bottom two and most punters probably do believe that is what will happen tomorrow night.

Non-believers will probably be hoping that Janet Devlin's Irish fanbase won't be enough (the best placed Irish contestant to date is Eoghan Quigg who finished third behind Alexandra Burke and JLS).
 
Looking at Oddschecker, Misha is being backed to be in the bottom two but so is Marcus. However, in the 'Bottom Two Combo' Misha/Janet, Little Mix/Misha, Marcus/Amelia are also being backed alongside Misha/Marcus.
 
Read in paper this morning they have put together a sympathy video for Amelia this week
 
Interesting that Marcus had his first negative story today about his mass of botox injections and hair piece.

Misha looks as good as toast. The M&S advert switch was blatant and worthy of an OFCOM investigation of its own.

Looks like Little mix for plan A.
 
That was a a major fuck up from Janet, but also a lame performance from Little Mix. Could make it very tight come tomorrow.
 
That spectacular performance from Misha B should put more pressure on Janet!
 
Right, after watching the whole show, here's a brief rundown:

Little Mix - Song one didn't work for me and weakened their claim for Plan A. Song two was stronger, but still didn't tick all the boxes from my point of view. The emotion seemed far too contrived and I reckon some viewers will recognise that.

Janet - Song one has dreadful. She was bopping worse that Lena in the 2010 Eurovision. Worse still, she forgot the words to Hanson! Song two was equally dreadful. She killed the Chili Peppers.

Misha B - Song one was amazing. It was the Misha we were all blown away with and showed why she's such a hot raw talent. Song two didn't work in my opinion and could leave her exposed.

Marcus - Song one wasn't memorable and certainly not his best effort. Song two was off key for about a minute, but the later part of the song was good. Perhaps that may have rescued what was a poor week for Marcus.

Amelia - Song one was a very good solid performance, but song two seemed weak. Singing last may have helped her, but I can't help feeling that there's very little to like about her. She doesn't seem very warm, so there's not emotional connection.

My bottom two this week:

Janet. It's about time this droning biatch reacquainted herself with Ireland. They're voting for her, they can keep her!

Amelia. Just wasn't enough in her performances for me. Misha B was streets ahead of her tonight.

In the sing off, I expect Janet to go regardless of who she's pitted against.
 
Looking at Oddschecker for 'Bottom Two Combo', the only four combinations being backed with seemingly any seriousness are:

Misha/Janet 6/4 (Betfred/Boylesports)
Little Mix/Misha 13/2 (Paddy Power)
Little Mix/Janet 10/1 (Boylesports)
Misha/Marcus 14/1 (Betfred/Boylesports)

Is Amelia Lily safe then? The odds and positive movers are all over the place though...

Updated Twelfth Elimination Odds:

Janet Devlin 8/11 (Bet365/Betfred/Boylesports/Paddy Power/totesport/William Hill)
Misha Bryan 10/3 (Boylesports/Coral)
Amelia Lily 11/2 (Bet365)
Little Mix 20/1 (Coral/Sportingbet)
Marcus Collins 33/1 (Coral/Paddy Power/Sportingbet)

Updated 'To Be in the Bottom Two' odds:

Misha Bryan 2/5 (Betfred/Blue SQ/Boylesports/William Hill)
Janet Devlin 8/15 (Boylesports)
Amelia Lily 7/4 (Boylesports/Sky Bet)
Little Mix 3/1 (Betfred/Boylesports)
Marcus Collins 8/1 (Boylesports/Sky Bet)

A disastrous performance from Janet Devlin has plunged her from 'possibly' to 'almost certainty' to go yet she's 'less' likely than Misha Bryan to be in the bottom two!? Is Janet's Irish fanbase really more strong than Tesco Mary's from last year!?

Everyone else except Amelia Lily has seen some positive movement to go.

If it's Misha vs. Janet, Kelly will vote to save Misha (y'know she will, girl!) and Louis will vote to save Janet (unless he wants to be persona non grata in Ireland) but who will Gary and Tulisa vote for!? I'd say they will vote 'tactically' and vote to save Janet who cannot possibly win now. Misha surely can't win either but she's the stronger of the two performers and thus a threat to Marcus and Little Mix.
 
I've had a small play on Amelia to go at 8.60 ish.

There's no doubt now that they are doing all they can to get rid of Janet at the moment (mmmbop? Really?!) but they have yet to shift her into the bottom two, and I would imagine she will beat Misha tonight who just cannot build any sort of fanbase regardless of performance.

I think Amelia experiences the same issues re: connecting with the audience, and it's not a foregone conclusion that she will outpoll JD who might find that her shocking performance last night simply motivates her core fanbase even more.

If it's Mischa v Amelia...on past evidence the show is much more interested in MB.
 
It is indeed Janet (1/7) vs. (4/1) Misha over at Bet365. Let's see who votes for who then.
 
Who they voted to get rid of...

Louis - Janet (BACKSTABBER!!)
Tulisa - Janet
Kelly - abstained (COWARD!!)
Gary - would have voted for Janet

Janet is indeed gone through majority vote.
 
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