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X FACTOR Betting

Hi there. I run the anlytk.wordpress.com blog. Happy to answer any questions!
 
Hi and welcome to Betnod MrToby. That blog looks like an interesting slant on betting, when i get some spare time I'll have a read of that.
 
welcome to betnod MrToby (can i call you just Toby as the 'Mr' seems too formal for us reprobates on this site :D)

please can you post the actual increases on twitter followers per week for the contestants and also an indication whether it was a sudden (e.g. after a good performance) or a steady weekly increase?

:thumb

also have you done any detailed analysis on you figures? i know it's dangerous to take conclusions but do you have any theories based on what you've done sor far?
 
Yeah. Mr is pretty optional - just a habit on forums as toby's nearly always gone.

I'm doing the analysis as I go along really so no theories - it's based on some of the research into twitter that's going on in universities, but only loosely. I don't actually track the number of followers, but there's a guy who posts over in the comments at sofabet.com who does.

I've posted up some more detailed breakdowns on the blog, but am just trying to cut it a little deeper now, looking at sentiment over the course of the weeks for each of the acts to see if there's a disproportionate swing up or down and see if that's an indicator. I think it's just going to be more data that feeds into the odds analysis that we all do to be honest, rather than able to make hard predictions - I live in hope though :)
 
My reservation in using this kind of tool, whilst it can be helpful, is that it removes ones own sense for predicting a dark horse.

Google release data every year based on Eurovision search terms and try to predict the outcome of the final. It never works, as it fails to account for 'fervent fans'. Turkey, Greece, Russia etc. all have fans that actively promote their songs on message boards that generate traffic through Google and YouTube.

Apply this to X-Factor and you realise that regional fans can cause just the same upset. Scotish, Welsh, Liverpudlians etc. will all fervently promote and vote for their own.
 
yes agree dangerous to draw conclusions, but all the same, a useful tool to keep an eye on. the risk for instance seem to be the strongest gainers on twitter and i think this is one of the reasons they've gone to the top of the betting... but i'm not convinced they are even better than mid-table atm. but the increased twitter activity could be an indicator they are on the rise, and worth keeping an eye on.
 
i'm going on holiday to portugal :danceearly tomorrow morning so i'll post my pre-show bet now. i gave my reasoning over on sofabet so i'll just repeat it here:

"i’m going to stick my neck out and say marcus for elimination. i’m expecting him to go early and rock won’t suit him. there’s been some movement on his price but i got 12′s with VC. another thing that’s influenced me is that he was the last to be made safe last week. i think there is always something in the last to be safe, as it has to be plausible with the public. the public just wouldn’t have believed it if it had been misha/janet/risk – so his vote must have been fairly weak. also he was so distraught, on the point of meltdown – if he is in the bottom 2 i doubt he’d be able to deliver his saving song effectively due to his temperament. also will hedge with johnny a candidate also. i don’t think the public are getting this act at all. will look to do some savers once the shows over if it doesn’t look like the above will pan out.
other thoughts:
i don’t think at the moment that it’s going to be frankie – sympathy bounce + pimp slot + easier song should keep him safe.
sophie has a lot of strength on the social networks but if she’s on first and gives another unconvincing rabbit in the headlights performance, she could be in trouble.
sami looks like the obvious saver bet post show as have little confidence that she do anything in the rock category other than a power ballad – will depend on her placing in the order i guess."

so the bet is 5pt dutch marcus 12.0/ johnny 6.0 (will probably hedge on sami after the show if it looks like she struggling with rock week)
 
Coral are going down the cliché betting route as to what will happen/be said on Saturday night's show with a mad bunch of specials to appeal to die-hard TXF fans/casual gamblers:

Must happen LIVE on the Saturday night show

Be Proud of Yourself - Which judge will be first to use the words “Proud of you/be proud of yourself” on the live show

Kelly Rowland 9/4
Gary Barlow 11/4
Tulisa Contostavlos 7/2
Louis Walsh 9/2
None of them 6/1

Nailed it - Which judge will be first to use the phrase “nailed it / that” on the live show?

Tulisa Contostavlos 7/4
Gary Barlow 5/2
Louis Walsh 4/1
Kelly Rowland 9/1
None of them 5/1

You made that song your own - Any judge to say “you made that song your own / you owned that song”

Yes 'evens'
No 8/11

In the Bottom Two - Gary to refer to Frankie Cocozza being “In the bottom 2 last week”

Yes 2/7
No 5/2

Pick up the phone and vote - Louis Walsh to tell the public to “pick up the phone and vote”

Yes 1/2
No 6/4

Other specials

Any Judge to tell an act "You have a recording voice" 3/1
Any Judge to cry live on Saturday's Show 4/1
Louis to mention Westlife 4/1
Louis to tell an act "You're the one to beat" 4/1
Any Judge to tell Craig Colton he "Had a difficult week" 5/1
Any Judge to tell an act "You'll struggle to be here next week" 6/1
Kelly to throw her pen at a contestant 6/1
Louis to use the phrase "110%" 6/1
All Four judges to give a standing ovation to any one act 8/1
 
This week's updated odds:

Winning Act:

The Risk 5/2 (Bet365/Betfred/Blue SQ/Paddy Power/totesport)
Janet Devlin 11/4 (Stan James)
Misha Bryan 5/1 (Stan James)
Craig Colton 10/1 (Boylesports)
Sophie Habibis 12/1 (Paddy Power/Sportingbet)
Marcus Collins 25/1 (Bodog/Boylesports/Coral/Paddy Power/totesport)
Rhythmix 33/1 (general)
Kitty Brucknell 50/1 (Blue SQ/Bodog)
Frankie Cocozza 66/1 (Boylesports)
Johnny Robinson 80/1 (Bodog)
Sami Brookes 80/1 (Bet365/Boylesports/Paddy Power/Sportingbet)

Sixth Elimination Odds:

Sami Brookes 11/4 (Betfred/Blue SQ/Coral)
Johnny Robinson 5/1 (general)
Frankie Cocozza 6/1 (Betfred/Sportingbet)
Kitty Brucknell 6/1 (Bet365/Betfred/Bodog/Coral/Sportingbet)
Rhythmix 7/1 (Bet365/Ladbrokes)
Marcus Collins 10/1 (Bodog/Coral/Stan James)
Sophie Habibis 16/1 (Boylesports)
Craig Colton 50/1 (Bodog/Stan James)
Misha Bryan 80/1 (Sportingbet)
Janet Devlin 100/1 (general)
The Risk 150/1 (Sportingbet)

(To Be in the) Bottom Two:

Sami Brookes 11/8 (Blue SQ/Sky Bet/William Hill)
Rhythmix 2/1 (Boylesports)
Johnny Robinson 9/4 (Betfred/Boylesportsl)
Frankie Cocozza 5/2 (Betfred)
Kitty Brucknell 5/2 (Betfred/Boylesports/Paddy Power)
Marcus Collins 4/1 (Boylesports/Paddy Power/Sky Bet/William Hill)
Sophie Habibis 5/1 (Boylesports)
Craig Colton 16/1 (Betfred/Paddy Power)
Misha Bryan 25/1 (Boylesports/Paddy Power)
Janet Devlin 50/1 (Boylesports)
The Risk 50/1 (general)
 
I've had a bet of Marcus to go out this week and also small stakes on Craig and Misha at mega prices
 
tumblr_kts4cqL0ar1qzec7uo1_400.jpg


How much fake bake is Tulisa wearing tonight?
 
I'm not even entertaining the idea of betting this week. Not a chance. Everyone was shite.. well there were some decent shouts.

I'm going against the sympathy bounce and saying the bottom two will be:

Sami and Frankie.
 
I'm forcing myself to watch the repeat right now on ITV2. It is more shit then it usually is. It really is a Leon Jackson year. If they rig this for The Risk because Simon Cowell mistakenly went for Matt Cardle over One Direction then I can't be surprised that Simon Cowell finally wants his own group.

Updated Sixth Elimination Odds:

Frankie Cocozza 5/4 (Bet365/Betfred/Ladbrokes)
Sami Brookes 7/2 (Paddy Power)
Marcus Collins 7/1 (Blue SQ/Ladbrokes/Paddy Power)
Rhythmix 8/1 (Bet365/Ladbrokes/Sky Bet)
Sophie Habibis 14/1 (Boylesports)
Kitty Brucknell 33/1 (Blue SQ/Boylesports)
Misha Bryan 50/1 (Blue SQ/Sky Bet)
Johnny Robinson 50/1 (Bet365/Sky Bet)
Craig Colton 50/1 (general)
The Risk 100/1 (general)
Janet Devlin 150/1 (Blue SQ)

Who's going? Probably Frankie Cocozza (such a thin voice to try & cover Primal Scream's 'Rocks') with one of Sami Brookes, Marcus Collins (being on first is worst) and Rhythmix joining him in the bottom two

The clues were there with even Gary Barlow disowning Frankie Cocozza.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s103...-barlow-i-regret-picking-frankie-cocozza.html

No criticism of The Risk singing Gnarls Barkley's 'Crazy' strangely. They tried stitching Johnny Robinson up by giving him The Darkness' 'I Believe In A Thing Called Love' which really doesn't quite suit his voice but the audience went nuts for him and not in a Jedward/Wagner way either. It was probably a one-time only thing though.

No idea why they made Misha B (as they insist on calling her) 'Gladys Knight' (very lazy to suggest Tina Turner) up Prince's 'Purple Rain'. Very boring performance. Louis complaining that one of his acts has been bullied by Misha Bryan is interesting. My money would be on Kitty Brucknell being on the end of Misha's catty remarks.

Results of Coral's specials:

Be Proud of Yourself - Kelly Rowland 9/4 (Kelly Rowland to Sophie Habibis as she said 'So proud of you')
Nailed it - Louis Walsh 4/1 (I didn't hear him say it but that's how they've settled it)
You made that song your own - Yes 'evens' (Louis Walsh to Sophie Habibis)
In the Bottom Two - Yes 2/7 ('You deserved to be in the bottom two')
Pick up the phone and vote - No 6/4 (Sami Brookes said something along those lines but Louis Walsh didn't but he did say 'Please vote for Kitty')
Other specials - Kelly to throw her pen at a contestant 6/1 (She threw it at Louis Walsh & not Rhythmix though but Coral paid out after Kelly went into a tizzy insisting that Kesha was 'pop' and not 'rock')
 
Looking at the odds, there appears to mainly have been moves for Sami Brookes, Rhythmix and Kitty Brucknell to be in the bottom two but Frankie Cocozza is still the favourite to get the boot tonight.

Even more updated Sixth Elimination Odds:

Frankie Cocozza 5/4 (Betfred/Bodog/Sportingbet)
Sami Brookes 3/1 (Paddy Power)
Rhythmix 15/2 (Coral)
Marcus Collins 14/1 (Betfred/Ladbrokes/Sky Bet)
Sophie Habibis 14/1 (Bodog/Ladbrokes/Sky Bet)
Kitty Brucknell 28/1 (Betfred/Blue SQ)
Misha Bryan 50/1 (Blue SQ/Sky Bet)
Craig Colton 50/1 (general)
Johnny Robinson 80/1 (Sky Bet)
The Risk 125/1 (Sportingbet)
Janet Devlin 150/1 (Blue SQ/Sportingbet)

Updated (To Be in the) Bottom Two odds:

Frankie Cocozza 1/2 (Betfred)
Rhythmix 6/4 (Betfred)
Sami Brookes 6/4 (Betfred)
Kitty Brucknell 9/2 (Betfred)
Sophie Habibis 9/2 (Betfred)
Marcus Collins 5/1 (Betfred)
Craig Colton 16/1 (Sky Bet)
Misha Bryan 18/1 (Sky Bet)
Johnny Robinson 33/1 (Betfred/Sky Bet)
The Risk 40/1 (Betfred)
Janet Devlin 40/1 (Betfred)

Bottom Two Combo: (from Skybet)

Frankie Cocozza/Sami Brookes 9/4
Frankie Cocozza/Rhythmix 3/1
Frankie Cocozza/Sophie Habibis 13/2
Frankie Cocozza/Kitty Brucknell 9/1
Frankie Cocozza/Marcus Collins 10/1
Rhythmix/Sami Brookes 10/1
Sophie Habibis/Sami Brookes 14/1
Rhythmix/Sophie Habibis 16/1
Rhythmix/Marcus Collins 20/1
Sophie Habibis/Marcus Collins 22/1
Kitty Brucknell/Sami Brookes 28/1
Rhythmix/Kitty Brucknell 28/1
Frankie Cocozza/Misha Bryan 66/1
 
Surely If misha is in the bottom two now she's out, there's a good low risk trade on laying her for bottom 2 and backing her to go out for a free shot at 30ish
 
I wouldn't even consider Misha for the bottom two. Hats off to you if it comes off, but in my opinion, she's too good and far too popular. If the producers wanted Misha out, she'd have performed first in Rock week.

I was more impressed by Janet last night. There wasn't that immature babyish pronunciation to her vocal, which was a pleasant change.

I'd be slightly more worried had I put money on The Risk. They really do deserve to fall back to 2nd/3rd favourite based on last night's performance. I thought it was rock week? That was the second of two 'upbeat-urban' songs chosen last night. This show really does write its own rules. Jeas, I'll be glad when Eurovision comes round. At least you know where you stand!
 
Sami Brookes 1/4 vs. 3/1 Kitty Brucknell over at Stan James.

Sami's a goner surely?

EDIT: Now, Sami 1/10 vs. 6/1 Kitty
 
Today's Bettingzone Market Updates:

1250: Paddy Power have joined in the X Factor fun and they've opened a book on which judge will be first to go, quoting Kelly Rowland as their 7/4 favourite after she allegedly flew home following a row with Tulisa Contostavlos.

The latter is 11/4 along with Gary Barlow, with stalwart Louis Walsh a 3/1 chance.

Paddy Power said: "The X Factor has become a bit of a soap opera this week and with the producers desperate to boost ratings a major shake-up could well be on the cards!"

1230: William Hill have slashed the odds of Simon Cowell returning to X Factor for the live final to 5/1 from 10/1 after the show took a ratings hit last weekend.

"The X-Factor has really taken a ratings hit in recent weeks and while one week could possibly be passed off as an anomaly it has now become clear that something has to change and a return from Simon would certainly provide a much needed boost," said Hill's spokesman Joe Crilly.

The firm have also cut the price of one of the current judges departing to 4/1 from twice that.

Meanwhile Janet Devlin and The Risk continue to compete for favouritism with both widely available at 5/2 ahead of 5/1 chance Misha B.

Craig Colton is out to 12/1 with bet365 ahead of 14/1 chance Sophie Habibis and it's 20/1 bar.

Frankie Cocozza remains favourite to be eliminated next at no bigger than 11/8, while Kitty Brucknell is 9/2 and Rhythmix are 5/1.
 
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