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X FACTOR Betting

Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1300: William Hill have seen a shock gamble on Cheryl Cole to return as an X Factor Judge THIS YEAR and she has been slashed from 33/1 to 5/1.

“We always felt there was a good chance that Cheryl could return next year but never thought that it could be this year. It looks like everything has been brought forward and we could see her back in weeks!” said Hill’s spokesman Rupert Adams.

Frankie Cocozza has been trimmed from 5/4 to 1/1 to be the next act eliminated with Rhythmix & Kitty both 4/1 shots to go.
 
stereoman said:
Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1300: William Hill have seen a shock gamble on Cheryl Cole to return as an X Factor Judge THIS YEAR and she has been slashed from 33/1 to 5/1.

“We always felt there was a good chance that Cheryl could return next year but never thought that it could be this year. It looks like everything has been brought forward and we could see her back in weeks!” said Hill’s spokesman Rupert Adams.
Click to expand...

Not sure who would go. My guess is Kelly Rowland. I can't tolerate the show any longer, but she just makes it even more unbearable. That said, Tulisa is meant to be the new Cheryl, the common girl with a heart and coincidentally, no voice.

Pah! I don't care. Like all reality TV shows on the slide, they just become parodies of themselves and lose all credibility. Channel 5 beckons!
 
I cant quite explain how big the post I just lost was...sob sob sob

In far less words...

The show is heamorraging ratings, and I see the main issue as being that the viewers havent yet been told who they should like. Usually by this point there is a clear indication from judges and producers as to who the main players are - whereas this year viewers are confused by the hot/cold week to week nature of the comments for most acts.

So this week I think we'll see two things...

a) the show will revert to backing the safe, 'higher quality' contestants such as The Risk and Janet - it needs them in the final.

b) the show will look to nail its colours to the mast and pick one or two others to invest in for the rest of the series. It needs a collection of 4 or 5 contenders in order to counteract the accusations that the talent this year is very poor.

Who that might be is the question...

Aside from the fact that I think Mischa's personality or public perception is damaged beyond repair, she has already turned in high quality performances with little public impact. I'd place Craig in the same category - already nailed a performance but failed to translate that into widespread support,and for that reason there's little point in investing time into generating it. As with all previous winners, there needs to be a natural fanbase there in the first place.

Frankie and Kitty are so damaged now as to have zero long term prospects.

Johnny is on the Wagner path - more talented but still, too much of a risk to promote to the final, particularly in a year of falling ratings, so likely to be jettisoned in a few weeks.

Rythmix have had little effort put into them so far, and given that they would direct attention away from The Risk were they to be promoted to the front, also represent too much of a gamble.

That leaves Sophie and Marcus. Sophie too is too much of a threat to the safer bet of Janet, although I'll be honest and say I've no idea what their plan is with her.

So to Marcus. Despite poor song choices in weeks one and two along with lukewarm comments, he has commanded fairly solid support, trending upwards week on week. His treatment last week was more confusing however...up first in the Strictly overlap, typical sacrificial lamb slot - and yet the song choice was suitable, the staging solid, and the comments full of praise.

One of the few plausible reasons would be to 'test' his current support before deciding whether or not to invest any time and effort in his story. Again, he is polling even more strongly than last week, and performing well on twitter, suggesting that if the producers want to give him a fair shake, then he is setup to take advantage of it.

His personality fits well with the X Factor - bubbly enough to be memorable, yet humble enough to stay on the right side of the press. In addition, if Craig's long term appeal is as limited as it so far seems to be, then they will need to show some support to a male to make the final couple of weeks.

Of course, in a year where producers intentions have been anything but clear and consistent, they may ignore him yet again this week, but at the odds he seems the most plausible 'other' option at the moment.

I would sign off by saying that should he make the final I'd expect the knife to be plunged squarely into his shoulder blades - yet another male winner certainly wont be on the XF christmas wish list...

I've invested heavily at 19s(mixture of high street and Betfair) and at 7/2-4/1 for a top 3 spot.

And yes the post I lost was longer than that ramble.
 
Good luck with Marcus, Beanie. The first two weeks put me right off.

Just in regards to Johnny - they've already started to dismantle his support, as one of the papers claimed that an investigation had commenced into his benefit payments.

And this one's for Stereoman...

Kelly Rowland will not be on the panel at this week's X-Factor. Beginning of the end?
 
I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly was gone before Louis (he does whatever Simon tells him to do) and Tulisa. Superficially getting Kelly on board must have cost at least as much if not more than Gary Barlow.

In regards this weekend even though Frankie swore as he was saved, they now have a bad guy to hang onto. He will probably survive at least one more week. It's just like 'Strictly'.

I assume with Kelly being a no-show that it means Kelly's vote doesn't count and a handy no need for a deadlock then as there's only three judges to vote.

=============

This afternoon's Bettingzone Market News:

1250: I'm sure like me you've all cleared you schedules for tomorrow evening as the next X Factor show hits our screens.

Janet Devlin and The Risk remain 5/2 and 11/4 respectively to win the competition, ahead of 5/1 chance Misha B.
Craig Colton is out to 10/1, Sophie Habibis is 14s and it's 18s bar.

Frankie Cocozza is 5/4 to be the next act eliminated ahead of 11/2 chances Rhythmix and Kitty Brucknell.

There have been more headlines regarding the judges than the contestants this week though with reports of a spat between Kelly and Tulisa.

William Hill offer 20/1 that the two refuse to speak to each other at any time during the show.

"Since the first week of the live shows, the judges have been at each other's throats and it may well be the case that the feisty girls will be told/decide to avoid talking to each other during this weekend’s show," said their spokesman Joe Crilly.
 
http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s103...rhythmix-unveil-new-band-name-little-mix.html

Hmmm. I didn't realise there's a charity already called Rhythmix. They're gonna rename themselves 'Little Mix'!? The catcallers will have a field day calling 'em 'Pick n Mix'.

I wouldn't be surprised that the producers would be more annoyed by the name change than Frankie's swearing and this is as flimsy an excuse to get rid of Little Mix than they've had than for previous acts who get voted off. Good on 'em for lasting this long though as previous girl acts have bombed in the first three weeks or less....people who vote for TXF have short term memories!? Rhythmix who!?

Marcus Collins to finish in the final three isn't a bad shout under the circumstances with only Misha Bryan possibly in the way. I don't think he'll better Rebecca Ferguson's result of finishing second though. It's usually the chosen one, the back up plan and the third wheel with the final three acts.

The Risk having a new member on board will be interesting as one of the 'original' four didn't want to continue. Who knows if they're the chosen ones? Oh yeah...Simon Cowell does.

This week's updated odds:

Winning Act:

Janet Devlin 12/5 (Boylesports)
The Risk 11/4 (general)
Misha Bryan 5/1 (general)
Craig Colton 10/1 (Bet365./Betfred/totesport)
Sophie Habibis 14/1 (Bet365/Coral/Paddy Power/Sportingbet)
Marcus Collins 16/1 (Boylesports/Coral/Paddy Power/Stan James/William Hill)
Johnny Robinson 28/1 (Bet365/Ladbrokes)
Kitty Brucknell 40/1 (Coral/Paddy Power/Sky Bet)
Little Mix 40/1 (Paddy Power/Sky Bet/Sportingbetl)
Frankie Cocozza 100/1 (Betfred/Coral/Paddy Power/Sky Bet/totesport)

The big positive mover is Marcus Collins whilst Janet Devlin regains slight favouritism over The Risk.

Seventh Elimination Odds:

Frankie Cocozza 13/10 (Ladbrokes)
Little Mix 5/1 (Betfred/Coral/Paddy Power/Sky Bet)
Kitty Brucknell 6/1 (Betfred)
Sophie Habibis 17/2 (Sportingbet)
Johnny Robinson 16/1 (Betfred)
Marcus Collins 20/1 (Boylesports)
Craig Colton 20/1 (general but 25/1 at Bodog)
Misha Bryan 66/1 (Sportingbet)
The Risk 100/1 (Betfred/Sportingbet/Stan James)
Janet Devlin 100/1 (general)

The positive mover is Little Mix with moves for Sophie Habibis and The Risk but Frankie's still the favourite. I wouldn't be surprised if Frankie escapes being in the bottom two again (to build him up for at least one more week as this year's bad guy) whilst it's one of the no-hopers vs. Little Mix this week.

(To Be in the) Bottom Two:

Frankie Cocozza 4/6 (general)
Little Mix 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Kitty Brucknell 11/8 (Boylesports/Paddy Power/Sky Bet)
Sophie Habibis 7/2 (Blue SQ)
Craig Colton 15/2 (Blue SQ)
Marcus Collins 8/1 (Sky Bet/William Hill)
Johnny Robinson 8/1 (Betfred/Sky Bet/William Hill)
Misha Bryan 16/1 (Blue SQ/William Hill)
The Risk 25/1 (Blue SQ)
Janet Devlin 40/1 (Blue SQ/Paddy Power/Sky Bet)

Will Kelly Rowland be 'punished' for her no-show this week? Sophie Habibis (the positive mover in this market along with The Risk) and/or Misha Bryan might be 'surprise' members of the bottom two. Can Frankie, Johnny and/or Kitty escape this week!? What about The Risk?

Bottom Two Combo: (from Skybet who are still calling Little Mix, 'Rhythmix')

Frankie Cocozza/Kitty Brucknell 4/1
Frankie Cocozza/Little Mix 9/2
Kitty Brucknell/Little Mix 13/2
Frankie Cocozza/Sophie Habibis 11/1
Frankie Cocozza/Craig Colton 14/1
Little Mix/Sophie Habibis 16/1
Frankie Cocozza/Johnny Robinson 25/1
Little Mix/Johnny Robinson 28/1
Little Mix/Craig Colton 28/1
Sophie Habibis.Craig Colton 28/1
Kitty Brucknell/Craig Colton 28/1
Kitty Brucknell/Johnny Robinson 28/1
Frankie Cocozza/The Risk 50/1
Kitty Brucknell/The Risk 66/1
Little Mix/The Risk 66/1
Johnny Robinson/The Risk 200/1

Series match-bets: (to last longer, at William Hill)

Marcus Collins 11/10 vs. 4/6 Sophie Habibis
Janet Devlin 8/11 vs. 'evens' The Risk
Misha Bryan 4/9 vs. 13/8 Craig Colton

SPECULATIVE CONCLUSION: Little Mix are going with Sophie Habibis 'surprisingly' in the bottom two, with Frankie Cocozza and Kitty Brucknell in the bottom 'four' for dramatic effort.

I'll have £50 on the 5/1 available at Sky Bet for Little Mix to go, a small touch at £30 at the 7/2 at Blue SQ on Sophie Habibis being in the bottom two and £20 (maximum bet allowed) at 16/1 over at Sky Bet on Little Mix/Sophie Habibis (they're still calling 'em Rhythmix) being the bottom two.

Sophie's fourth/fifth favourite to win so I'm more likely to look extremely silly than win but hey, it's my £100.
 
Based on what I've seen so far tonight, the only conclusion is that the producers this year are a new team to the usual lot(who are presumably on us x factor) and haven't got a clue how to run their show.

Case in point with Sophie...vt emphasising a 'bubbly' persona, followed by a dreary song and 'dull as dishwater' judges comments. There seems to be no overall plan, and the show is lurching from one mess to another.

Decent from Marcus tonight tho. Got a good shout with that punt stereo, Sophie was overshadowed tonight and will need the existing fanbase to get her through, no new fans based on that.
 
Beanie said:
Based on what I've seen so far tonight, the only conclusion is that the producers this year are a new team to the usual lot(who are presumably on us x factor) and haven't got a clue how to run their show.
Click to expand...

I'm right with you on that comment Beanie.

Can just add, they went well out of their way to repair Misha's reputation. I still think she figures. Her performance was astounding and I'll repeat the comment I made before boot-camp - she's streets ahead in terms of talent!

The Risk going out first was a shock. I also felt they gave their worst performance too.

I think Sophie is in a very bad place. I tried to get some in-play action, but even though betfred and paddypower are displaying odds on oddschecker, they are not accepting bets, which when you're acting fast, you really don't need. As it turned out, I missed the good stuff and gave up.

I did have a punt before the show on Little Mix being in the bottom two. I feel quite happy with that.
 
Bleurgh. Little Mix are out to 7/1 fourth favourite over at Stan James to be booted out. Judging by Twitter reaction, it's a bit of a sympathy vote for criticism that one of them's fat or something like that.

If Sophie Habibis end up in the bottom two, I'm still in profit but only just.

Updated seventh elimination odds from Stan James:

Sophie Habibis 6/4
Frankie Cocozza 7/4
Kitty Brucknell 13/2
Little Mix 7/1
Craig Colton 20/1
Marcus Collins 20/1
Johnny Robinson 20/1
The Risk 40/1
Misha Bryan 66/1
Janet Devlin 100/1
 
Little Mix were rather good weren't they. Although, having Craig straight after will not help - he was amazing and confirmed how open this competition it.

Could The Risk find themselves in the bottom two this week? Judging from tonight's comments, has Syco/producers decided to take a girl group further in this competition? I wasn't impressed by them at all.

If I was to take a punt, I would say the market is about right, Sophie and Frankie in the bottom two, with Sophie going, as she brings absolutely nothing to the show.

Going forward, I think I'm going to stop betting on this season altogether. Past rules have vanished and make this series very unpredictable. Like I said last week, I prefer the consistency of Eurovision.
 
The praise for craig was massively ott IMO, I got the feeling he has perhaps been struggling for votes in week 3 as Gary's pumping up of the crowd was straight out the cowell book of ramping.

I'm not sure it's as open as everyone thinks. The one week momentum bursts of kitty, johhny, rhythmix etc are just the usual one week bounces. Ultimately the winner will need to be mainstream and marketable enough to gain millions of votes in the final, and I can't really count more than 4...those being Mischa, Janet, Marcus and Sophie(but the producers aren't interested in her at all.) No longer putting the risk in there, they really needed to keep the momentum up this early, and the line up change at this stage seems terminal to me.
 
well, well back from sunny portugal...

as Gav says this year has become incredibly unpredictable and i'm at a loss as to where to put my money tonight. and also worried about my early backing of janet. this is not because of the initial criticism of the voice wearing thin with people but because of the increasingly bad song choices with poor arrangements and the worst styling of any contestant. not ready to ditch her yet because of her regional base but certainly may be looking for some back up each ways. the problem is who? no one is standing out as a winner to me. marcus is improving, but to be honest if he wins, it will be by default rather than actual talent - yellow paint imo.

last night they tried to throw sophie under a bus. given her internet support i think this is risky and may back fire. but the producers must know what it takes to depress the vote? if she's bottom 2 she's probably gone...

i thought also the risk were poor last night and going first won't have helped, along with a member change. could they benefit from a mini sympathy bounce? i am tempted by the huge 41.0 at Stan James.

johnny i think would have been a massive favourite for bottom 2 going second but them was given an unbelievable pimping for a half decent performance and the crowd reaction suggests safety. some of the comments did suggest he'd served his purpose though and was no longer required.

frankie was as usual obnoxiously crap and must surely get the backlash he deserves this week. i thought the judges comments were lukewarm as they mostly avoided praising the performance and concentrated on his personality.

craig was given pimp slot and was overpraised for a decent performance. this suggests to me they want to keep him around but his support may be waning.

kitty should get a sympathy bounce as her performance was 'big', pimped and her vt was sympathetic, along with increasing internet support.

my prediction is that bottom 2 will be either frankie/sophie/johnny/the risk/little mix.

i'll think on it some more but it may be better to keep money in pocket this week.
 
Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1325: More on The X Factor now and the judges are at the heart of the bookies' thinking too these days.

With Kelly Rowland missing last night's show, William Hill make her odds-on at 4/7 not to be a judge on next year's series. She is 5/4 to make the panel.

Show creator Simon Cowell is red-hot at 1/8 to return in 2012.

The prices suggest the 2012 panel will be made up of Gary Barlow (1/10), Cowell, Louis Walsh (4/7) and Tulisa Contostavios (4/6).

Former judge Cheryl Cole is 2/1 to make a return, while Alexandra Burke, who stood in for Rowland last night, is 5/1 to be a permanent judge in 2012. Ladbrokes will give you 8s.

"Kelly's disappearance was a real shock and we now think that Simon will return as this proves that he cannot run the X Factor UK from the USA," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

1320: Sophie Habibis is the favourite to be booted off The X Factor in tonight's show.

She has backed in after failing to impress last night - judge Gary Barlow described her as "dull as dishwater". Ladbrokes will give you a best of 7/5.

Frankie Cocozza has drifted out to 15/8 with Paddy Power in the market.

The Risk, much fancied for outright victory, were also cut but appear unlikely to go as they are available at 33/1 to leave this evening.

Misha B was the main mover in the outright market after last night's Hallowe'en-themed performances. She was widely cut and is now no better than 4/1.

Long-time market leader Janet Devlin remains the favourite but she was pushed out to 3/1 by bet365 after Barlow said: "You’re predictable in a good way. It’s just a worry for me. I hope the public can keep interested in you in this competition."
 
i'm detecting a weakness about the risk so i'm going to disagree with the markets. they went first and are trailing in a lot of polls and not much interest on youtube. also the teens may be out at halloween parties tonight. its a long shot but i'll have 0.4 pts @ 33.0.

also will dutch frankie and sophie as there is a lot of positivity for johnny, kitty and little mix. can't see any of the others figuring.
 
Hmmm. The Risk, Janet Devlin and Misha Bryan are being backed to join Sophie Habibis in tonight's bottom two. Sophie Habibis, The Risk and Janet Devlin being positive movers as to who's going out tonight.

Updated (To Be in the) Bottom Two odds:

Sophie Habibis 4/6 (Sky Bet)
Frankie Cocozza 4/5 (Boylesports/Sky Bet/William Hill)
Kitty Brucknell 2/1 (Boylesports/Sky Bet/William Hill)
The Risk 4/1 (Boylesports/William Hill)
Little Mix 7/1 (Sky Bet)
Johnny Robinson 8/1 (Boylesports/Sky Bet/William Hill)
Marcus Collins 8/1 (Boylesports/Sky Bet/William Hill)
Misha Bryan 12/1 (Boylesports)
Craig Colton 14/1 (Sky Bet)
Janet Devlin 16/1 (Boylesports)

Updated Seventh Elimination odds:

Sophie Habibis 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
Frankie Cocozza 7/4 (Blue SQ)
Kitty Brucknell 9/1 (Betfred)
Little Mix 25/1 (Bet365/Ladbrokes)
The Risk 33/1 (Blue SQ)
Marcus Collins 40/1 (Betfred/Coral/Paddy Power)
Johnny Robinson 40/1 (Bet365/Betfred/Blue SQ/William Hill)
Craig Colton 66/1 (Bet365/Ladbrokes/Paddy Power/Sportingbet)
Misha Bryan 80/1 (Paddy Power)
Janet Devlin 100/1(Betfred/Stan James)

My memory's a bit hazy...has anyone who's won TXF ever been in the bottom two/three? If The Risk or Janet Devlin end up in tonight's bottom two, it's probably not good news for their long term prospects.

Bad money management on my behalf as I should have stuck £50 at the 7/2 on Sophie Habibis being in the bottom two and £30 on Little Mix being eliminated. Meh.

=============

I wanted to put these crazy odds from Coral but ran out of time yesterday. Does Louis Walsh has an account with the bookies or something? Just for information purposes with events that happened in bold type:

Must happen live on the Saturday night show. Maximum bet £50. Only applies to Gary, Tulisa and Louis.

Any judge to...

say "You made that song your own/you owned that song" 8/11
NOT to say "You made that song your own/you owned that song" 'evens'
say "You have a recording voice" 3/1
say "Best performance of the night for me" 5/1
cry on Saturday 5/1
say to Kitty "It was a mistake saving you last week" 7/1
say "You'll struggle to be here next week" 8/1
say "What a great way to open the show" 8/1

Which judge will be the first to use the word...

Sorry


Tulisa Contostavlos 2/1
Gary Barlow 3/1
Louis Walsh 7/2
None of them 9/4

Nailed it/that

Tulisa Constostavlos 13/8
Louis Walsh 11/4
Gary Barlow 3/1
None of them 7/2

Bully

Tulisa Constostavlos 4/1
Louis Walsh 9/2
Gary Barlow 11/2
None of them 8/11

Proud of you/be proud of yourself
Gary Barlow 7/4
Tulisa Constostavlos 5/2
Gary Barlow 4/1
None of them 11/4


Louis Walsh to...

tell the public to "Pick up the phone and vote"' 'evens'
NOT tell the public to "Pick up the phone and vote" 8/11
stand and stoke up the audience 2/1
tell Kitty he was "right/glad to save her" last week 7/4
NOT tell Kitty he was "right/glad to save her" last week 2/5
tell any act, "You're the one to beat" 4/1
say "I'll think you'll be in the final/last 3" 6/1
 
it will be a real shocker if janet is in the bottom 2. despite a poor performance she still has the most youtube views and heads a few polls (digitalspy being a notable exception). i'm not doing my dutch now because i can't see beyond sophie.

i have kept my small stake on the risk. i think they are surplus to requirements now. i think the first 3 weeks of astronomical pimping was an attempt to make them contenders and i think it failed. i think the member leaving was the last straw and that's why they were thrown under strictly's bus. they may survive this week if they want to get rid of sophie more but if they end up in the bottom 2 with frankie i can see them leaving
 
I can't believe in the lists of odds I didn't bother putting up what the odds for Sophie Habibis/The Risk being in the bottom two was on Saturday! It's 8/1 now!

I'm getting the odd feeling that we're gonna be thrown an absolute WTF bottom two tonight whatever happens...even if it is Frankie vs. Sophie!

txf2011-7thelimination-bt-sb-30Oct11.jpg
 
JLS were b2 midway through, but don't think any winners have been.

Producers appear intent to keep this year wide open, but that's not a particularly effective plan for a show like this. Without definite favourites to follow, viewers are far less likely to pick up the phone, or worse even bother tuning in.

At the moment we have a mixture of acts who have all had some praise/some criticism, along with some good song choices and some bad. Upshot is far less of a connection with their target audience, which matt, rebecca and OD already had by this stage last year(you could throw Cher and Mary into that mix too.)

If voting numbers are heavily down as suspected, then the potential for shocks is greatly increased.
 
And for what it's worth I'll go for frankie v the risk in the bottom two.
 
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